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Tesla to make "exciting announcement on Thursday" (correction Tuesday)

What will Elon's "exciting announcement" be?


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There's some interesting bits about battery swapping in their latest 10-K: Battery Swapping/Rental for the Model S - Page 6

I think you're on to it!
This is directly from the 10K:
"our capability to rapidly swap out the Model S battery pack and the development of specialized public facilities to perform such swapping, which do not currently exist but which we may introduce sometime in 2013"
 
I can't imagine the announcement will have anything to do with batteries except to say something like he already tweeted "200 miles for $30K." This is simply because you don't want to give away any possible breakthrough too early. Besides, it would be up to a battery partner, like Panasonic, to announce any breakthroughs with their technology. Elon buying a company, like the one mentioned, would happen quietly until the entire deal is completely finalized. There would have had to have been an entire process of them proving their technology to him. Then he makes an offer. If the technology is really amazing then there would be huge announcements and a bidding war to see who will pay the most for it. It just makes no sense. Sorry.
 
I think it might indeed be related to the Phinergy article mentioned earlier in the thread. Phinergy 1000-Mile Aluminum-Air Battery: On The Road In 2017?

Elon´s recent Tweets about Gen III being 3 to 4 years away, with "cool tech we can´t talk about yet" matches up with the article´s mention of "a contract with a global automaker to deliver production volumes of the device starting in 2017." Later in the article the company says it recently received funding for a pilot project from the Israeli gov´t, "among other sources".
I guess I have to throw some cold water on the Phinergy speculation. The Phinergy battery is non-rechargeable. You have to replace it after the aluminum is spent. And the process to make that aluminum is also highly inefficient. Basically it will involve some sort of battery swapping scheme (although the battery in this case is a lot lighter and holds more energy). I'm not sure Tesla really has much interest in battery swapping.

The metal-air patents Tesla applied for talks about rechargeable metal-air batteries, most likely lithium-air (or maybe zinc-air).
 
I love that there are over 200 posts trying to figure out the meaning behind one tweet!

Having said that, usually folks on TMC are able to figure out pretty quickly what an announcement is about (such as MT COTY), or at least narrow down the viable options. The interesting thing here is that it doesn't seem like there's a really good guess, other than something to do with superchargers.

I have no better guess than anyone else. I would make the following observations -- putting ones "money where his mouth is" is a figure of speech. This involves something that Elon has mentioned in the past, and probably on multiple occasions. Could it be the viability/practicality of the SC network, or the financial security of TM? The problem with the former is I'm not sure where his personal investment, or "money" (and here I don't think he means cash, for those who were speculating how liquid Elon is) would come into play with that. This is something that TM should be doing as a business because the CEO has already said so. Accelerating the pace or scope of the SC network doesn't seem worthy of that kind of tweet -- he already has put his money where is mouth is on this topic when he made the SC announcement a few months ago. The problem with the latter is that I haven't heard Elon saying too much about Tesla's financial security, other than talking about how hairy things were in 2009 before they got the gov't loan approved and the investments from Toyota and Daimler. It's not like TM is wheezing along desperate for free cash flow, so what would be the point of a personal stock purchase by him or a personal repayment of the gov't loan?

The implication of putting his "money" on the line is taking some sort of personal (financial) risk or stake in something related to TM. This is unusual because as a public company with a fairly healthy share price and access to other funds means that there's not much TM isn't able to do from an investment perspective as a business that would necessitate Elon personally putting his money where his mouth is. This is why the SC network doesn't seem the right fit.

Anyway, it's easy for me to shoot down all of the speculation so far as not fitting the bill, but that doesn't leave me any closer to figuring out what the announcement is going to be next week. My focus is on looking for something that Elon has been fairly vocal about, because the implication of his tweet is he's going to more than just talk about something he's mentioned before related to TM, and put some personal financial stake behind his idea or theory.
 
He could announce quicker expansion of the Supercharger network (using his own money) and a deal with Daimler that allows future B-Class owners to use it for free, for the lifetime of their cars. Would be a good move towards world dominance!

I don't follow your reasoning. How is a deal that provides a huge benefit to Mercedes owners a good thing for Tesla, which would like nothing better than for people to buy Tesla cars instead? Yes, I know Mercedes uses Tesla drivetrain technology... but Tesla still makes far more money from selling cars at retail prices than from selling drivetrains at wholesale. And such a deal would enrage many Tesla owners. Doesn't sound to me like something that would get Elon very excited.
 
How is a deal that provides a huge benefit to Mercedes owners a good thing for Tesla, which would like nothing better than for people to buy Tesla cars instead?

I agree with this.

Just to try and clear things up, the B-Class EV doesn't appear to have access to Supercharging. Daimler quotes the charge times as 30MPH (60 miles of charge in 2 hours @ 40 A/240 V), if Tesla gave the car access to the Supercharger Diamler would have probably said so in the Press Release. In addition, Supercharging is a big "golden goose" for Tesla; the extremely fast charging rates (which no other company can currently match) helps further separate Tesla's vehicles from other EVs.
 
maybe it has something to do with the warranty and service stuff. Maybe he will pay the extended warranty for all ModelS owners or something. He's so confident in the product and that it wont need repairs that he's going to put his money for it.
Something like this would be pretty cool.

Maybe he would set a firm limit of minimum 70% capacity at the end of the warranty period, and extend the warranty by some amount - that would be a nice display of confidence in the product. (I doubt this is the announcement, though.)
 
The implication of putting his "money" on the line is taking some sort of personal (financial) risk or stake in something related to TM. This is unusual because as a public company with a fairly healthy share price and access to other funds means that there's not much TM isn't able to do from an investment perspective as a business that would necessitate Elon personally putting his money where his mouth is. This is why the SC network doesn't seem the right fit.

Anyway, it's easy for me to shoot down all of the speculation so far as not fitting the bill, but that doesn't leave me any closer to figuring out what the announcement is going to be next week. My focus is on looking for something that Elon has been fairly vocal about, because the implication of his tweet is he's going to more than just talk about something he's mentioned before related to TM, and put some personal financial stake behind his idea or theory.

I like the way you think and believe there that's where it's at. I could see this go into two directions:

1) Announcement of a disruptive technology within the current plans e.g. a "Super Super Charger" to cut down charging times even more, including a special investment programme to have all the US covered with these chargers in 200 mile intervals (my best guess for today), or something like "doubling the production rate to 800 cars" or similar...

2) Announcement of something disruptive outside the current plan e.g. Blue Star a year earlier, electric planes ("all transportation except Space travel), so really awesome battery tech for Blue Star or so...

Personally, I think that we will see something that fits well within the existing plans, since Tesla has been pretty good in terms of focusing on the next step and proper execution (which I like).

So what else is "within the plan" and yet "disruptive"?