Tesla to make "exciting announcement on Thursday" (correction Tuesday)

[kinddog]

Maybe he's going to buy a(nother) Tesla

 

[Kipernicus]

Maybe he's going to buy a(nother) Tesla

A Toyota Rav4EV with the Tesla powertrain. As a beater so he and Talulah can evade paparazzi.
But that doesn't really meet the "in v major way" criteria, unless he bought a hundred of them.

 

[clea]

A Toyota Rav4EV with the Tesla powertrain. As a beater so he and Talulah can evade paparazzi.
But that doesn't really meet the "in v major way" (sic) criteria, unless he bought a thousand of them.

He could buy all the paparazzi Rav4EVs so he could outrun them in his Model S (not only on speed but range).

 

[100thMonkey]

... that the Tesla X production has been pushed back to make way for production of the Tesla S Sportwagen, available this fall!

 

[CyberDutchie]

I don't follow your reasoning. How is a deal that provides a huge benefit to Mercedes owners a good thing for Tesla, which would like nothing better than for people to buy Tesla cars instead? Yes, I know Mercedes uses Tesla drivetrain technology... but Tesla still makes far more money from selling cars at retail prices than from selling drivetrains at wholesale. And such a deal would enrage many Tesla owners. Doesn't sound to me like something that would get Elon very excited.

I agree with this.

Just to try and clear things up, the B-Class EV doesn't appear to have access to Supercharging. Daimler quotes the charge times as 30MPH (60 miles of charge in 2 hours @ 40 A/240 V), if Tesla gave the car access to the Supercharger Diamler would have probably said so in the Press Release. In addition, Supercharging is a big "golden goose" for Tesla; the extremely fast charging rates (which no other company can currently match) helps further separate Tesla's vehicles from other EVs.

I am talking about expanding Superchargers as a new line of business for Tesla through deals with other EV manufacturers, in particular those who use Tesla's battery tech. If Tesla expands Supercharger access beyond their own cars they could have a shot at becoming the dominant charging station operator in the EV industry, like ExxonMobil or Chevron dominate gas stations for fueling ICE cars today.

Also, Elon likes to think bigger than Tesla, he wants to get to all electric automotive transportation as quickly as possible. For the greater good of the planet!

 

[setherme]

I've seen one post eluding to battery swapping, but no discussion. Why isn't this a strong possibility?

This excerpt from the recent 10K seems promising for the announcement:

"our capability to rapidly swap out the Model S battery pack and the development of specialized public facilities to perform such
swapping, which do not currently exist but which we may introduce sometime in 2013"

 

[Rodolfo Paiz]

I am talking about expanding Superchargers as a new line of business for Tesla [...]

That only works if everybody else pays for using the Superchargers. They're free to Model S owners, so that's not a very promising "business". And I don't think the Superchargers are currently fitted with billing and payment infrastructure (though I could be wrong), so in either case I would guess this is possibility is highly unlikely.

 

[CyberDutchie]

It would be a license agreement with the car manufacturer perhaps with a Tesla provided sensor to be built into each car that enables charging.

 

[rongon]

So what else is "within the plan" and yet "disruptive"?

How about an inventory system like all car manufacturers have to go along with the best sedan in the world?

 

[tdiggity]

He's going to release the logs from the nyt article and the animation to go with it. Proving once and for all that he's right.

But probably not.

 

[J in MN]

"our capability to rapidly swap out the Model S battery pack and the development of specialized public facilities to perform such
swapping, which do not currently exist but which we may introduce sometime in 2013"

This stood out for me too.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Here's a wild guess that I believe no one has mentioned yet: wireless charging.

 

[Citizen-T]

He did mention battery swapping during that investor presentation last year. We thought for a while that it was going to be coming with the Supercharger unveil, but that didn't materialize. Maybe there is something there. Still wonder where the "putting my money where my mouth is" plays in though.

 

[carrerascott]

I think I got it -- Model S buyers will be put into a drawing for a free seat on the trip to Mars! (But no return flight, sorry.)

 

[Norbert]

Did someone already mention it? The use of (possibly recycled) batteries at Superchargers to lessen the (occasional) draw on the grid. And/or the "step" advancement in Supercharger technology.

 

[Twiddler]

Could he be buying out the company and going private? I mean, he is currently the majority shareholder, but it was my understanding that he is already all-in. Would definitely explain the comment, but wow, the insider trading accusations would fly (even more)

 

[GSP]

I love that there are over 200 posts trying to figure out the meaning behind one tweet!

Having said that, usually folks on TMC are able to figure out pretty quickly what an announcement is about (such as MT COTY), or at least narrow down the viable options. The interesting thing here is that it doesn't seem like there's a really good guess, other than something to do with superchargers.

I have no better guess than anyone else. I would make the following observations -- putting ones "money where his mouth is" is a figure of speech. This involves something that Elon has mentioned in the past, and probably on multiple occasions. Could it be the viability/practicality of the SC network, or the financial security of TM? The problem with the former is I'm not sure where his personal investment, or "money" (and here I don't think he means cash, for those who were speculating how liquid Elon is) would come into play with that. This is something that TM should be doing as a business because the CEO has already said so. Accelerating the pace or scope of the SC network doesn't seem worthy of that kind of tweet -- he already has put his money where is mouth is on this topic when he made the SC announcement a few months ago. The problem with the latter is that I haven't heard Elon saying too much about Tesla's financial security, other than talking about how hairy things were in 2009 before they got the gov't loan approved and the investments from Toyota and Daimler. It's not like TM is wheezing along desperate for free cash flow, so what would be the point of a personal stock purchase by him or a personal repayment of the gov't loan?

The implication of putting his "money" on the line is taking some sort of personal (financial) risk or stake in something related to TM. This is unusual because as a public company with a fairly healthy share price and access to other funds means that there's not much TM isn't able to do from an investment perspective as a business that would necessitate Elon personally putting his money where his mouth is. This is why the SC network doesn't seem the right fit.

Anyway, it's easy for me to shoot down all of the speculation so far as not fitting the bill, but that doesn't leave me any closer to figuring out what the announcement is going to be next week. My focus is on looking for something that Elon has been fairly vocal about, because the implication of his tweet is he's going to more than just talk about something he's mentioned before related to TM, and put some personal financial stake behind his idea or theory.

Well, Elon has been talking about the Gen3 "BlueStar" car for a very long time. His "Master Plan" blog was one of the first ones posted at TeslaMotors.com, maybe the very first one authored by Elon. About a year ago, Tesla officials stated that the battery tech needed to make BlueStar possible was going to be on the market in time to pull up the Gen3 launch. However, the Gen3 launch is going to require a huge amount of capital. If Tesla makes its first real profit this quarter, and has loans to service, how are they going to get capital in time to launch Gen3 as soon as the batteries (cells) are ready? A big cash infusion from Elon is consistent with his tweet. He also has been bragging on the Gen3 in recent tweets.

Maybe even bet big time and tool a European factory as well, to crank out lots of BlueStars to meet the incredible demand for a $30k 200-mile car with "really cool tech" and Tesla cache. Two plants is still only 2/3 of Goshn's bet on the leaf (a $30k, 75-mile car)

GSP

 

[sp4rk]

What does he believe in passionately that he has not put his money where his mouth is?
Solar panels on all the Superchargers?
At least we don't have to wait nearly as long for this as Teslive?

 

[hasselboxster]

Sometime last fall Elon mentioned several derivatives of the Model S in 2013. I don't know if Tuesday will reveal more, but definitely has my full attention.

Love the ideas that suggest its some type of support/benefit towards existing owners.

 

[Arnold Panz]

Well, Elon has been talking about the Gen3 "BlueStar" car for a very long time. His "Master Plan" blog was one of the first ones posted at TeslaMotors.com, maybe the very first one authored by Elon. About a year ago, Tesla officials stated that the battery tech needed to make BlueStar possible was going to be on the market in time to pull up the Gen3 launch. However, the Gen3 launch is going to require a huge amount of capital. If Tesla makes its first real profit this quarter, and has loans to service, how are they going to get capital in time to launch Gen3 as soon as the batteries (cells) are ready? A big cash infusion from Elon is consistent with his tweet. He also has been bragging on the Gen3 in recent tweets.

Maybe even bet big time and tool a European factory as well, to crank out lots of BlueStars to meet the incredible demand for a $30k 200-mile car with "really cool tech" and Tesla cache. Two plants is still only 2/3 of Goshn's bet on the leaf (a $30k, 75-mile car)

GSP

Something related to Gen III is a good guess. He had some recent tweets (replies to questions, actually) about it being 3-4 years before they'll have Gen III available, so a financial investment in getting Gen III to market faster or something similar would meet the criteria of putting his money where his mouth is in a very major way. Tuesday will be interesting!