Tesla to make "exciting announcement on Thursday" (correction Tuesday)

[gg_got_a_tesla]

I don't think Elon can make Gen III happen by simply throwing (his) money at the problem. He needs all of the talent at Tesla to work on it and we all know how limited their bandwidth is right now with the Model S and then the X. And, unlike software engineers who are a dime a dozen around here , there are surely not enough battery systems specialists that he can lure even with a lot of green.

My hunch is still a big advertising splash for Tesla - either directly via media outlets or indirectly through a fleet investment or some such - with his money.

 

[neroden]

Isn't Elon Musk still ridiculously leveraged? I don't think he can mean that he's putting his *own* money in -- it's all tied up in Solar City, SpaceX, and Tesla already!

Anyway, I think he probably means Tesla's corporate money.

 

[mitch672]

Isn't Elon Musk still ridiculously leveraged? I don't think he can mean that he's putting his *own* money in -- it's all tied up in Solar City, SpaceX, and Tesla already!

Anyway, I think he probably means Tesla's corporate money.

Or it could mean he has private investors, or existing private investors (read: Toyota and Mercedes), that have agreed to put up a huge amount of money (hint: 1 Billion or more), so Tesla can develop the Gen3 platform sooner, they will have a technology transfer agreement, and the investors will get to use the platform along with Tesla. He'd be in favor if this because these major auto mfrs can really crank out cars in a big way, there will be many more all electric cars much sooner if this where to happen. This is all in line with Elon's stated goals of converting cars to all electric. In addition, they will be licensing the SuperCharger technology (for a small fee per car built) to these auto giants, which will support a massive SC network (eventually). It's also how a tesla will make money long term, as the majors will be able to build millions of EVs, while Tesla will be able to focus on new and better designs, and not so much about manufacturing the cars, the major players will generate the volume, Tesla will make a licensing fee and run the SC network, everyone wins, Teslas drive train and battery technology will be in every platform, eventually.

Full disclosure: Randy Carlson has already suggested most of this:
SuperCharging Tesla - Seeking Alpha

 

[PureAmps]

Isn't Elon Musk still ridiculously leveraged? I don't think he can mean that he's putting his *own* money in -- it's all tied up in Solar City, SpaceX, and Tesla already!

Yep, which is why an option exercise makes the most sense if he is putting money into the company. He can exercise as part of a cashless transaction, where he sells enough shares to cover both the exercise price and the taxes, so it costs him nothing out of pocket, and nets the company cash with plenty of shares left over for himself. Or he could secure some kind of private financing to purchase the shares and pay for the taxes. His strike price is low at $6 and change, so the odds of a margin call are quite low assuming Tesla continues to execute.

 

[vfx]

...Tesla can develop the Gen3 platform sooner,...

The bluegen3 is battery progress limited

 

[mitch672]

The bluegen3 is battery progress limited

Yes, that's covered with the possible deal with the Israeli company developing the Aluminum-air and Zinc-air battery, perhaps Elon has found a promising technology that can speed things up, you never know what Iron Man will come up with
I wouldn't underestimate what could be done with the correct mixture of science & finance.

 

[vfx]

...
I wouldn't underestimate what could be done with the correct mixture of science & finance.

A new battery tech has not been their MO. Tesla has always used commodity cells.

 

[joefee]

Or it could mean he has private investors, or existing private investors (read: Toyota and Mercedes), that have agreed to put up a huge amount of money (hint: 1 Billion or more), so Tesla can develop the Gen3 platform sooner, they will have a technology transfer agreement, and the investors will get to use the platform along with Tesla. He'd be in favor if this because these major auto mfrs can really crank out cars in a big way, there will be many more all electric cars much sooner if this where to happen. This is all in line with Elon's stated goals of converting cars to all electric. In addition, they will be licensing the SuperCharger technology (for a small fee per car built) to these auto giants, which will support a massive SC network (eventually). It's also how a tesla will make money long term, as the majors will be able to build millions of EVs, while Tesla will be able to focus on new and better designs, and not so much about manufacturing the cars, the major players will generate the volume, Tesla will make a licensing fee and run the SC network, everyone wins, Teslas drive train and battery technology will be in every platform, eventually.

Full disclosure: Randy Carlson has already suggested most of this:
SuperCharging Tesla - Seeking Alpha

I'm thinking the same on money inflows, SuperCharger/Manufacturing expansion…except Tesla will become/remain a major car manufacturer with: MS, MX, Gen 3, Super Car, mini-S, mini-X, E-truck (Elon said the next letter should be E …. S "E" X) :love:

 

[mitch672]

I'm thinking the same on money inflows, SuperCharger/Manufacturing expansion…except Tesla will become/remain a major car manufacturer with: MS, MX, Gen 3, Super Car, mini-S, mini-X, E-truck (Elon said the next letter should be E …. S "E" X) :love:

I think the point of partnering and licensing their technology is so they don't need another major cash infusion to keep going, they'll let the big boys do the manufacturing in large volume, their technology will have been proven, their is no need for them to compete with the auto industry, they'll license the technology to them instead. Sure, they'll always make some high end cars, but their talents are better spent on design and R & D.. They'll manufacture enough for proof of concept, as they have been doing, this will allow for a much quicker conversion of the fleet to electrification, one of Elon's stated goals... They are already so far ahead, other manufacturers will just follow along, as has been happening already. (RAV 4EV compliance car, and new Mercedes ED)

 

[GSP]

I don't think Elon can make Gen III happen by simply throwing (his) money at the problem. He needs all of the talent at Tesla to work on it and we all know how limited their bandwidth is right now with the Model S and then the X. .....

True. Tesla will need time, talent, and a few hundred million to bring the Gen3 to market, just like the Model S. They also need the right battery cell technology at the right price, reliably delivered in high volume. Model S and X will keep the talent busy as you point out, but Elon is good at getting more talented people when needed.

In addition to development expense, tooling a high volume assembly line (or two) and supplier tooling to support it will be *very*expensive. Probably $500M or more per line capable of 200k units/year.

So I think a big capital infusion into Gen3 would be a good bet for Tuesday's announcement.

GSP

 

[yobigd20]

Maybe now that the Chinese have backed out of buying Fisker, Tesla is going to pair back up with Henry Fisker, acquire Fisker Automotive, and finish developing the Karma the right way with a Tesla powertrain...or perhaps acquire it alone without Henry Fisker involved...lol.

 

[sp4rk]

Maybe now that the Chinese have backed out of buying Fisker, Tesla is going to pair back up with Henry Fisker, acquire Fisker Automotive, and finish developing the Karma the right way with a Tesla powertrain...or perhaps acquire it alone without Henry Fisker involved...lol.

What value would adding Fisker to the Tesla umbrella bring shareholders? Or was this a joke?
Where did I miss the Chinese no longer being interested in Fisker?

 

[Larry Chanin]

At Earnings calls Elon has stated how, in theory, he is a supporter of leasing, but due to the order backlog Tesla didn't need to implement one yet. "Putting money where his mouth is", fits in with these prior public statements in which he has decided to invest part of his personal wealth in a new leasing program. Although there still is a backlog Tesla can't wait until it is gone to start leasing. They need to get out front and ensure there are programs aimed at generating demand.

From a selfish personal perspective I would like to think that Elon's public statements about the Supercharger network might fit as well, but I think that leasing is more likely.

Larry

 

[ElSupreme]

At Earnings calls Elon has stated how, in theory, he is a supporter of leasing, but due to the order backlog Tesla didn't need to implement one yet. "Putting money where his mouth is", fits in with these prior public statements in which he has decided to invest part of his personal wealth in a new leasing program. Although there still is a backlog Tesla can't wait until it is gone to start leasing. They need to get out front and ensure there are programs aimed at generating demand.

From a selfish personal perspective I would like to think that Elon's public statements about the Supercharger network might fit as well, but I think that leasing is more likely.

Larry

I think this may have real merit behind it. Tesla/Elon could offer a Lease program. The 'my money where my mouth is' comment could reference some very high residual values. And considering the battery pack is a huge cost in the car, and it will have large value after 3 years 36,000 miles they could comfortably offer very high residual values.

 

[Arnold Panz]

I think this may have real merit behind it. Tesla/Elon could offer a Lease program. The 'my money where my mouth is' comment could reference some very high residual values. And considering the battery pack is a huge cost in the car, and it will have large value after 3 years 36,000 miles they could comfortably offer very high residual values.

I agree that this plausibly fits within the parameters of Elon's tweet, although I'd still say that it's Tesla's money that Elon is putting at risk, not his own, but as CEO and the biggest shareholder, it's perhaps understandable that he considers Tesla's money to be his own!

 

[avatar]

The more I think about it, the more I believe this is going to be Elon buying a large number of shares in TSLA. According to TSLA's 10Q Filings he has a tranche of 560K shares vesting. I'm not sure exactly when (would be great if one of you fine gents knew what date his call options vest). The price he gets to exercise the calls is approximately $30. That means he putting about $16.8 million of his own money into the company plus probably has external investors lined up to buy more shares. Any thoughts?

 

[Bardlebee]

I think this may have real merit behind it. Tesla/Elon could offer a Lease program. The 'my money where my mouth is' comment could reference some very high residual values. And considering the battery pack is a huge cost in the car, and it will have large value after 3 years 36,000 miles they could comfortably offer very high residual values.

How much would leasing be on a car so expensive? I ask out of curiosity because while I would love a Tesla, I would love a way were I can do a lease-to-own type process so I can get it sooner

The more I think about it, the more I believe this is going to be Elon buying a large number of shares in TSLA. According to TSLA's 10Q Filings he has a tranche of 560K shares vesting. I'm not sure exactly when (would be great if one of you fine gents knew what date his call options vest). The price he gets to exercise the calls is approximately $30. That means he putting about $16.8 million of his own money into the company plus probably has external investors lined up to buy more shares. Any thoughts?

I don't know if he would need an announcement for it though. Why not just DO IT? This sounds like a more publicized thing then just buying more stock.

 

[avatar]

How much would leasing be on a car so expensive? I ask out of curiosity because while I would love a Tesla, I would love a way were I can do a lease-to-own type process so I can get it sooner



I don't know if he would need an announcement for it though. Why not just DO IT? This sounds like a more publicized thing then just buying more stock.

What if he has lined up Warren Buffet as an investor? That is certainly worth an announcement.

 

[aznt1217]

Securing investors can be likely. It's been quoted that shorts are in for a tsunami of hurt many times. Warren Buffet also does own an electric car company. Interesting indeed. He also has a knack for buying companies that are on the brink of explosive growth after starting up or recovering from a beat down.

 

[BenTesla]

I think what ever it is has to be worth of a announcement/event. If they going to make a lease program, Elon would have tweeted it instead of the cryptic tweet. Same reasoning against him buying more stock or securing investors. Based on what I've learned about Tesla through the years it has to be something that needs to be seen to be understood not something that would be just as well received through a blog post. Anyway I have 3 guesses, would love to know what you guys think: (they're in order of how likely I think it is)

1. Upgraded Supercharger technology and an accelerated roll out

2. A bunch of new apps for the infotainment center (By far the coolest of the possibility)

3. They're announcing the "opportunity console" the center console gap filler thing they talked about on launch (Is there any news on this? seriously quiet on this frount or did I miss the launch?

My one question is am I right in assuming it'll be an event or is it just going to be a blog post? If it's a blog post ignore all of this :smile: