These numbers are all too low. I repeat my comment from yesterday, especially after the leaked email... There is ZERO chance Q3 deliveries will be lower than Q2 (barring an earthquake or other unforeseen event that affects production). DEMAND IS NOT AN ISSUE.I have thought a little more about deliveries in the next few quarters. Here are my current estimates:
Some people will probably say 69K Model 3 deliveries in Q3 looks low. Why would it be less than Q2 2019? I can think of two reasons:
By the way, here is my accuracy in the last two quarters. Q1 was a difficult quarter. Model 3 deliveries were 10K lower than most people expected and there was a big drop in S/X deliveries. You can see the accuracy of all my estimates since Q2 2018 here.
- In Europe, there are no more reservation holders left. In Q2 2019, 18,279 Model 3s were sold in Europe and some of them were purchased by reservation holders. Let's say if 7K out of 18K were reservation holders, the demand in Europe going forward will be 11K, not 18K because you can't count reservation holders in Q3 anymore because there are no more reservation holders left. Tesla cleared the reservation queue in North America in Q4 2018 and in Europe in Q2 2019. Of course, demand keeps increasing. If sustainable demand was 11K in Europe, it might increase to 14K but I think it's still likely to be less than Q2. However, deliveries to the UK will make a difference. Therefore I will keep updating my Q3 delivery estimate. I will make another calculation around 10 Aug 2019 when we have the Eu numbers for July.
- In the US, some buyers who didn't need a new car yet still bought it in Q2 because they didn't want to lose out on federal tax credits which dropped by $1875 for deliveries after 30 June 2019.