In my experience, this is all wrong. Tesla’s system does an astounding job of consistently seeing the entire road, regardless of marking quality, and over relatively large distances. The last time I saw it behave the way you describe was circa August 2018.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
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In my experience, this is all wrong. Tesla’s system does an astounding job of consistently seeing the entire road, regardless of marking quality, and over relatively large distances. The last time I saw it behave the way you describe was circa August 2018.
Mod:
Yes, I must agree. But here's the problem, there are (at least) three different kinds of posts about FSD:
1. posts about the economics of Robotaxis, Tesla Network, etc. I consider these on topic, although I think we would all prefer that they were in the right (that is other) thread: Market/Economic Impact of Tesla Robotaxi Network
2. Posts about timing and/or feasibility of FSD. As of this instant these are banned as off-limits.
3. Would you put your car in, how much should you make, how will it be run? Also banned as off-topic.
The problem for the moderators is that it's extremely difficult to winnow out the grain from the chaff and then move it when there is so much and such a mix. We just don't have that kind of bandwidth. So @schonelucht's worthy suggestion is adopted... take the good posts over there, don't bother rehashing the other issues, and we'll all be happy and unpunished.
--ggr.
Having been raised and trained by mathematicians, I also have great respect for those calculations.
Yes credits can be sold. This year credit prices are very low because the EV subsidies took EV penetration far past the 2019 NEV credit mandate targets. The EV subsidies were cut in half at the end of June and are likely to be removed next year, so it will be interesting to see which EV models survive in H2. With the lower subsidies and lower credits per EV next year, the credits could start to become a lot more valuable.
Unlikely short squeezes but if they happen it will be real and painful:New short interest position data is released. Greedy shorts hardly covered anything after mutli billion losses in the last few weeks.
Looks like they are going all-in into ER. That's going to be a lot of fun with this low volume
I see couple of catalysts within a month that might initiate a real squeeze that we've been waiting for far too long.
Pickup unveil, Earnings surprise, forward guidance and China/Model Y update during Earnings call.
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Surprise profit in q2 over 250m. It could only happen via emissions credits and FCA money but if it did S&P 500 could happen.
Breakthrough in batteries that could save $2000 per car. That would increase margins and even lower end user costs making larger markets possible. Extra squeeze if only Tesla could do it. Maxwell could be the key.
Finally any revamp of the us ev tax credit that helps Tesla (and is not quantity based). Like a flat $4k immediate rebate.
A passenger vehicle emits about 4.6 metric tons of carbon dioxide per year. A tree can sequester 1 ton of carbon dioxide by the time it reaches 40 years old (it will do very little in the first 10 years). Some trees will turn into forest fire later in their lifetime. Some trees will die due to natural causes. With all the factors considered, we need to plant at least 500 trees to counter the emissions from one car. We will need to plant 500 billion new trees per year just to sequester the new carbon dioxide generated by all the vehicles on the street. We don't have that kind of spare land on earth. The most powerful weapon in fighting climate crisis is to have a proper carbon price.
Exxon Mobile has been promoting their CO2 sequestering projects. My calculation shows the CO2 they capture is only 0.1% of the CO2 they newly generate per year. I think this is their new way to mislead people so they can continue their oil business.
Surprised the sales & delivery bonus kerfuffle hasn't been mentioned. Apparently Tesla employees were originally told they came up 200 cars short and wouldn't be receiving the bonuses. Now it appears the bonuses will be paid. I guess this would be an expense for Q2?
Sorry to interrupt all the tulip talk.
Sorry to interrupt all the tulip talk.
The bonus would be paid in Q3. Can't be an expense from before it happened.
(Unless they earmarked funds for the bonus in Q2, but that would be outside the P&L, I think)
X Fan
Active Member
I believe they need to reserve in the quarter it was earned.
Context is everything. Example: I own land that's been degraded by a millennium of overgrazing; while in ancient times it surely was home to birch forest, today it's 50% poor grassland and 50% gravel barrens (well, and some iron bogs, but they're good and shall remain boggy). The canyon slopes are subject to landslides as a result of the degradation. Simple restoration of the soil by fertilizer (it's highly phosphorus and nitrogen deficient), manure, or seeding leguminous plants can increase the amount of carbon in the soil (and overland) dramatically in 5-10 years or so - about 10t/ha aboveground and ~120t/ha underground to the gravel barrens, somewhat less for the poor grasslands. Reforestation (taiga species) would add another ~80t/ha aboveground and ~50t/ha underground over several decades. So long as the biome remains "forest", the carbon sequestered will not decline, as new trees replace ones that die - indeed, mature trees would continue to seed the barrens around them, expanding their groves and continuing to lock up more carbon. So long as grasslands are not allowed to become overgrazed again, their carbon, too, will remain locked up.
I have 8ha. That's a lot of carbon sequestration potential just from restoration and reforestation - something like 2000t when all is said and done. Honestly, the only thing that stops me from doing more is how much money I have to sink into things like soil restoration or buying seedlings. Even the smallest conifer seedlings I can get are ~$2 each, which would mean tens of thousands of dollars in reforestation costs. If I want larger trees that get the job done sooner, they're even more expensive. I've already spent many hundreds of dollars on fertilizer, and probably need to spend thousands more to get phosphorus up to normal. And whether I do nitrogen from synthetic fertilizers, paying for dozens of manure spreader truckloads, or legume planting, that too will come with a significant price tag.
Or to put it another way... cash does sequester carbon.
(On that note, if anyone wants to sequester some carbon, you're more than welcome to support restoration or reforestation plans on my land - I'd do all the grunt work, and send photos of your plants
Realistically, though, I expect this to just be a project that I slowly fund myself over the course of decades)
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Possibly too much of the grumpy old man "get off my lawn" leaked into my post.
I understand the excitement about the Robotaxi concept and the Tesla Network in particular. I agree that when Tesla "flips the switch" on their fleet of Robotaxis shareholders will be very happy. Unfortunately, between FSD achieving the proper level of 9's and the subsequent governmental approval, that time is still a number of years off.
Until then, Tesla needs to execute.
- Production of existing models should be ramping up.
- Margins should be improving.
- New models (Y, Semi) need to begin production on time.
- Battery production needs to support production of all vehicles and Tesla Energy.
- Vehicle deliveries, both domestic and international, need to improve (end the wave)
- FSD status **
I have thought a little more about deliveries in the next few quarters. Here are my current estimates:
Some people will probably say 69K Model 3 deliveries in Q3 looks low. Why would it be less than Q2 2019? I can think of two reasons:
Some people will probably say 69K Model 3 deliveries in Q3 looks low. Why would it be less than Q2 2019? I can think of two reasons:
- In Europe, there are no more reservation holders left. In Q2 2019, 18,279 Model 3s were sold in Europe and some of them were purchased by reservation holders. Let's say if 7K out of 18K were reservation holders, the demand in Europe going forward will be 11K, not 18K because you can't count reservation holders in Q3 anymore because there are no more reservation holders left. Tesla cleared the reservation queue in North America in Q4 2018 and in Europe in Q2 2019. Of course, demand keeps increasing. If sustainable demand was 11K in Europe, it might increase to 14K but I think it's still likely to be less than Q2. However, deliveries to the UK will make a difference. Therefore I will keep updating my Q3 delivery estimate. I will make another calculation around 10 Aug 2019 when we have the Eu numbers for July.
- In the US, some buyers who didn't need a new car yet still bought it in Q2 because they didn't want to lose out on federal tax credits which dropped by $1875 for deliveries after 30 June 2019.
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(*cough*)bulls**t(*cough*)
Seriously, will people please stop with this? It's really annoying to the large amount of people in the world (myself included) who still are unable to buy any Model 3 at all. Including some of the world's largest auto markets, like India, Russia, Brazil, eastern Europe, Saudi Arabia, etc.
Let's totally forget that even in the places that can buy Model 3s, SR+s only started getting delivered right at the end of the quarter, and RHD countries only just started getting any vehicles at all right near the end of the quarter as well. Let's also forget that this sort of theorized "demand decline" has never happened in the history of Tesla, because each time a new vehicle enters a market, getting vehicles on the road stimulates new sales to people who were previously not buyers (e.g. early buyers end up triggering their friends / family / coworkers / neighbors / etc to buy one). Let's furthermore forget that the total EV market grows every year as new people decide to go electric for their next vehicle.
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EVNow
Well-Known Member
Nor sure exactly how that works. It is possible the bonus is earned when Tesla publishes the total number of cars delivered i.e. Q3.
For eg., I'm not sure how yearly bonuses are handled. Do they make provisions every quarter ?
I have thought a little more about deliveries in the next few quarters. Here are my current estimates:
Some people will probably say 69K Model 3 deliveries in Q3 looks low. Why would it be less than Q2 2019? I can think of two reasons:
By the way, here is my accuracy in the last two quarters. Q1 was a difficult quarter. Model 3 deliveries were 10K lower than most people expected and there was a big drop in S/X deliveries. You can see the accuracy of all my estimates since Q2 2018 here.
- In Europe, there are no more reservation holders left. In Q2 2019, 18,279 Model 3s were sold in Europe and some of them were purchased by reservation holders. Let's say if 7K out of 18K were reservation holders, the demand in Europe going forward will be 11K, not 18K because you can't count reservation holders in Q3 anymore because there are no more reservation holders left. Tesla cleared the reservation queue in North America in Q4 2018 and in Europe in Q2 2019.
- In the US, some buyers who didn't need a new car yet still bought it in Q2 because they didn't want to lose out on federal tax credits which dropped by $1875 for deliveries after 30 June 2019.
A caveat on the accuracy numbers: from what I’ve seen, those were your estimates shortly before the end of the quarter. The earlier estimates for Q2 started off much differently, with, as I remember, an estimated total deliveries of roughly 72,000, off by about 24%. Not meant as a chastisement or anything, but I think it bears mentioning.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I was a reservation holder up until last month when I got my deposit back. There were many others still waiting for the $35K car.
X Fan
Active Member
For annual bonuses: several approaches but typically a reserve each quarter based on current projections would work. OTH, for quarterlies, you should reserve in the period it was earned and not when paid.
Your math is off. Badly.
If we assume an original 400K reservations, half US/Canada , 20% Europe, 30% China-and-rest-of-world, then:
That's a starting reservation queue of 200K reservations in the the US/Canada of which about 1/3 was waiting for SR. Maybe half of those bought MR, so 5/6 of that was delivered by the end of Q4 2018, and yes, they really did deliver that many -- I checked it some months ago and the numbers work, even accounting for "half of orders not from reservations" during Q4. The remaining ~33K who were waiting for SR bought their US SRs in Q1 and Q2.
However, take a look at Europe. Starting reservation count around 80K. Tesla started shipping Model 3 to Europe when? Q1. They simply haven't shipped enough to work through the reservation queue yet. I don't have exact numbers to hand, but in the ballpartk of 17K Model 3s went to Europe in Q2 and 18K in Q3... that's 35K, nowhere close to the 80K reservations. Any car shipped to a non-reservation-holder makes the situation more extreme. (Part of the reason for shipment to non-reservation-holders is because UK shipments, Iceland shipments, Switzerland SR shipments, etc. started even later than European shipments in general.) If they manage 18K each quarter going forward, and we assume a 20% cancellation rate, *they won't run through the European reservation queue until middle of Q4 2019*.
I believe this is the real situation. (It may be slightly pessimistic; there may be more Euro reservations than I think or a lower cancellation rate.) So no, this isn't a reason for Q3 deliveries to be lower than Q2; we still have reesrvation holders in Q3.
More fundamentally, you're making a demand argument, which is really dumb. Tesla is production constrained.
----
So here's the real reason Q3 deliveries might be lower than Q2 deliveries: they might unwind the wave. I doubt it though.
I expect Q3 production to be higher than Q2 production -- that's pretty much guaranteed. However, Q3 deliveries may be lower than Q2 *deliveries*, because there isn't a big overhang of cars from the previous quarter to deliver. I expect they will avoid generating a big overhang
If you projected 73K Q3 Model 3 production (slightly higher than Q2 production), I'd call it pessimistic, but it would be plausible. If you projected anywhere from 77K-84K Q3 production, I'd call it realistic (that would fit with the range of rumors regarding production rate exiting June). Anything under 73K is unrealistic.
I can't really guess what they're going to do in terms of "unwinding the wave". They could bring deliveries down fairly low if they *really* unwound the wave, but I don't think they'll do that quickly.
If they were managing Wall Street expectations, the trick would be to increase production as fast as possible, and then increase deliveries by just a little bit each quarter while using additional production beyond that level to unwind the wave.
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EVNow
Well-Known Member
Yes, and I hate it when people try to hide their bad predictions.
Troy Teslike on Twitter
Troy Teslike on Twitter
Troy Teslike on Twitter
Troy Teslike on Twitter
Troy Teslike on Twitter
Troy Teslike on Twitter
I fully own up to my mistakes. While I got Q3 and Q4 right, I totally screwed up in Q1 - I simply didn't realize that as many vehicles as they were sending overseas, they had planned to send far more - then had to scramble to pull a last-minute domestic surge to try to compensate (half of said stimulus which was rolled back for Q2 - base price nearly $40k rather than $35k). I made a mistake, and I admit to the mistake when talking about Q1 - without prompting.
If you want to play prophet, you better be willing to own up to when you get things wrong. You got Q2 very, very wrong, because you falsely interpreted Q1 as being a demand problem - a mistake that you're making yet again. Own up to your mistakes when talking about Q2 - don't pretend like you got it "almost right".
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