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  • ICE cars kill 4m+ people per year from pollution.
  • ICE cars will lead to 2 billion + people losing their homes from global warming.

Excellent post - but I'd suggest avoiding the hyperbole, since 95%+ of your post is fact based and powerful on its own.

It is true that air pollution is killing 3-4 million people per year - but a significant percentage of that is people burning coal and wood in urban areas for heating/cooking purposes. Another significant percentage is coal plants making electricity.

Global warming is creating "climate refugees", projected to be over ~140 million by 2050:


The anthropogenic portion of global warming was not primarily caused by ICE cars: it was caused by coal being burned, most of it to propel 200 years of industrial revolution. Most coal today is burned to create electricity.

While ICE cars do contribute to global warming significantly, for 100 years ICE cars were the most practical method of transportation, with unbeatable energy density. Beyond causing damage to the environment and pollution, and the abhorrent diesel fraud "lives for profits" calculation VW and co-conspirators made that we all know about, ICE vehicles also created a lot of social good and advantages to everyone's lives.

Today there's indeed no excuse to make ICE cars when EVs are available, but there's tens of millions of people employed by the ICE industry, the overwhelming majority of which does honest work for honest pay, and their hearts and minds will be needed for the EV revolution. Let's not demonize them and their industry.
 
Slightly off-topic: A further data point on German orders from the German TFF Forum: they claim that about 10,000 requests for the German EV subsidy were submitted in a week since the Model 3 was added to the list of eligible cars:

BAFA Umweltprämie für Model 3 • TFF Forum - Tesla Fahrer & Freunde

Now, I don't think that this is all Model 3 cars. There are other cars who are eligible and available to purchase, too. Based on the TFF Forum and the numbers from last year I estimate that there are some 4,000 - 8,000 Model 3 in the mix.

I think this data is interesting since you can only submit your request if you have a valid purchase agreement (but no need to have taken delivery yet). So in some ways it is an early indication for sales in Germany. Then again not everybody will submit a request for the subsidy and the number of Model 3 in list is not transparent. Either way, the numbers are bigger than I personally expected.

To add to that, most here in Germany still believe the incentive is not yet official and a lot are under the impression that you have to have paid the car before you apply. Me for instance did not yet do the application although I could.

IOW as stated before the demand of the 3 in Germany and in Europe will be much larger than people expect. It will be a pretty shocking awakening for most Managers from BMW, VW, Daimler, Audi and Porsche when they realize how many people are first movers and what is happening to the demand for their ICE models in the same segment.
 
EVs are significantly safer to drive due to front crumple zone, lower center of gravity (limiting rollovers) and lower combustion risk.

Also, EVs with Tesla's design have significantly lower polar moment of inertia: the mass is concentrated in the middle, while for ICE cars there's hundreds of pounds of drive train mass in the front of the car which is resisting the turning of the car in side crashes.

I.e. an ICE car is an ice skater with arms extended, while a Tesla is with arms much closer to the body:


In asymmetric side crashes cars with a lower polar moment are safer: the car can yield and rotate faster in a fashion to minimize damage to the passenger compartment. An ICE car with the same total mass will 'resist' more, and this causes more deformation damage.
 
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Sales channel is outsourced to dealerships which is not incentivized to sell EVs. Dealerships make a majority of their profits from maintenance revenue, which is much lower for EVs and requires different expertise.

BTW., just curious - is there any data and break-down available on how much money ICE dealerships earn on their various business fields: sales of new cars, maintenance plans, body shops, warranty and recall repairs, etc.?
 
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So many oil-changes, really? I think the dealers in America are scamming you here. Every car I've ever owned has an annual oil-change, or every 20.000km

Yes, your assumption is correct, US dealers ARE scamming us. My 2006 Prius recommended 5,000 mile oil changes, while the same car sold in other countries had a recommended 7,500 mile oil change. Why did the Toyota US make it 5,000 miles? Because they could. No other reasonable explanation. And, as others have noted, some dealerships are quick to insist that your particular driving style or location merits "Severe Service", so they can force oil changes and other services even more often.
 
Own $trns of legacy ICE assets which they will have to be written down as part of the EV transition.

I suspect the actual percentage of write-downs is still unknown at this point.

For example AFAIK Porsche built their Taycan lines in a fashion that shares as much production with ICE models as possible - i.e. "dual-use" manufacturing capacity. BMW too is designing their new factories to be more flexible in installing either an ICE engine or an EV drive-train.

The question is how quickly the EV transition will occur, what percentage of currently operating and already provisioned ICE manufacturing capacity will have to be written off.
 
Own a short term loan portfolio of ICE leases and auto loans which needs to be refinanced continuously, but the underlying assets will depreciate rapidly with the EV transition

I was trying to quantify this risk and was unsuccessful.

At least in the U.S. most auto loans are in the 2-6 years range, and there's significant penalties to consumers who decide to default on a car loan for economic reasons: the credit score tanks which makes other loans very hard to obtain, and often car loans are not secured by the car alone and there can be a life long invenenience of debt collection agencies trying to collect the (meanwhile ballooned) debt. So even if the resale value of ICE cars is plummeting, the overwhelming majority of U.S. consumers wouldn't default on their loans.

So I think only a significant recession would drive (involuntary) car loan defaults high enough to affect the securitized car loans of ICE carmakers.
 
A question to @ReflexFunds, @luvb2b and other modeling experts, I was reading through Elon's Q4 announcement email again, and noticed the following:

"In Q3 last year, we were able to make a 4% profit. While small by most standards, I would still consider this our first meaningful profit in the 15 years since we created Tesla."​

I don't see where the 4% figure comes from:
  • Q3 GAAP profit was $311.5m, on $6,824.4m of revenue, which is 4.64% profit. All the other, non-GAAP profit metrics are much larger percentages.
  • Using EPS would be sloppy as the stock price wasn't constant - but if we use the ~$350 stock price when he wrote the email and the lowest EPS figure ($1.75 GAAP EPS per diluted share), then we get a return of 5.0%.
Any ideas? Did he just round down the 4.64% to 4%?
Elon's not too bad. When asked, my wife will always round down her £1.99 purchases to £1... She hasn't tried rounding down a £0.99 purchase yet - that's when I will need a quantum pocket calculator to work out how much I have been duped....
 
Model 3 vs model S battery cell disassembly and internals (tesla 2170 vs 18650)


Around 52:00:

Battery cell energy density: from 240 to 247 Wh/kg (18650, 2170), 3% increase
pack level energy density: from 126.7 to 159.5, Wh/kg, 25.9% increase

Disappointing to see that the cell level energy density only saw little improvement so no big improvement in chemistry. But the pack level energy density improvement is impressive, possibly due to less cells being used and less dead weight in the structure and packing material?

When model s / x switch to 2170 we may see ~26% increase in range if Tesla keep vehicle weight constant. Alternatively Tesla could keep battery capacity constant reducing weight but I have no idea how much efficiency gain this translates to.
Damn you....now I have to watch the whole thing...I love that guy but man he is slooow.
 
BTW., just curious - is there any data and break-down available on how much money ICE dealerships earn on their various business fields: sales of new cars, maintenance plans, body shops, warranty and recall repairs, etc.?

There are extensive data available for US, slightly less for a number of European and Asian countries. There is quite a lot of variability, but here is the data for one US dealership network ( one of the US five largest). This data is accurate, but I cannot state the name of the manufacturer.


Some background:

All other things remaining equal ;

1.The larger the dealership the more complex the structure so some or all of the following activities are excluded from reported dat because they are housed in legally independent corporate entities):

-parts of Finance and Insurance (F&I), most often extended warranties, dealer financing, dealer leasing, service contracts,

-body shop revenue (if they have such; about 30% of large dealers do have owned or controlled body shops)

2. Large dealer groups tend to appear to have lower F&I income than do smaller ones, but;

-they have a higher percentage of leases, which give much higher GM than do cash or loan sales.

-they have, typically, better sales demographics than smaller dealers, but;

-a smaller group of large dealers, mostly not public, emphasize poorer demographics and have much higher sales GM’s but also much higher losses.

3. Fleet sales concentrate in a small number of dealerships which nominally report negligible profit on sales. They are among the largest dealers by volume, but lowest in terms of GM and other income.

4. The manufacturer financing for dealerships includes the following:

-floor planning (may finance entire inventory, new and used. Includes extensive auditing processes);

-facility finance- includes all capex categories, often subvened by manufacturer, can be loans and/or leases;

-leasing- consumer, business and fleet- each distinctly different and with different manufacturer involvement;

-loans- nearly always consumer, but also can be for some businesses.


Now the numbers, all of which are for a total dealership network, including small and large dealers, all geographic areas. They are common in that they all deal with the manufacturers captive finance company for some purpose. Remember these are mean values, with huge variance and typically two to three large modes correlating with dealership size and location:



1. New vehicle sales. .06% net margin (i.e. just about break even)

2. Profit on used vehicle sales. 11.4% (never tell a dealer you don’t have a trade until you’ve agreed a deal);

3. Warranty repairs. 14.2% (dealers adore recalls );

4. parts and service 16.0% (wonder why dealers hate BEV’s- no oil changes!);

5. F&I 24.8% (Never tell a dealer you’re making an all-cash deal until you’re closing an agreed deal);

-F&I includes average markup like this;

Loans- 300 basis points (inversely correlated to borrower credit quality, margin roughly 50% higher for used vehicles, subvened markup ~25% higher);

Leases- 420 basis points (depending on both credit quality [money factor] and residual value and capitalized cost). In both subvened paper is average 40% higher profit);

Extended warranty- average of 100% markup, often the maximum permitted by lenders;

Trash and Trinkets (T&T)- includes aftermarket adds like rustcoating, wheels, pinstriping, protective coating etc: usually 200-500% markup, but highly variable


Obviously F&I is by far the most profitable part of dealership operations. Manufacturers cooperate by selling extended warranties and numerous aftermarket adds with the manufacturer brand. Notably F&I income is much higher for leases (with ‘capitalized cost’ the most often secret sauce), and the higher end dealers make most of their income on leases, extended warranties and officially branded dealer adds.


Bluntly, Tesla understood all of this and, by owning the distribution network has effectively increased GM by ~30% or so. The only downside is that they now can record sales only on end delivery rather than on shipment to dealers, plus they must fund inventory directly. Because there are so many components much of these costs are never publicly visible.


All this money flowing though dealers does give much more political power than even cynics imagine. In particular, the nexus of dealer financing operations with local banks, credit unions as well as captives produces more cash flow than does the entire mortgage industry. The symbiosis is really quite remarkable, especially because most participants are not even aware of how all the pieces fit together.


A quick look at these numbers explains why dealers hate BEV. Mostly BEV buyers are better educated than the average buyer. Better educated buyers are hard to make large F&I profits, and BEV's cannot be convinced to pay for oil changes, spark plug replacements and so much more. However, better education buyers do step up for extended warranties and dealer adds, but even those are harder sales with BEV. There is one major exception to the rule: well educated sophisticated people are prone to make poor lease deals because few understand what capitalized cost, money factor and residual value actually mean, partly because disclosures are carefully placed in very fine print without explanation.



Those are a few of the basics…