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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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We have a new Mark Speigel Bottom ™️ (*). Let’s call this the Drunk Gavin Bottom™️ 🥴


(*) for the noobs, Toiletboi Mark Speigel (look at the picture in the linked WaPo article to understand the reference) was an infamous TSLA short seller who predicted that the SP will go down further when it was at $180 ( I.e. $12 in today’s split adjusted SP). The SP never looked back from then on 🤣
 
Yeah, I financed my Cybertruck. I don’t like debt, but I just couldn’t part with the shares.
I paid cash from shares sold at not a great price.

But I happened to pick up some leap calls last year (which I hadn’t done before and I don’t generally approve of options) at a good time that cover this year and a bit of next.

Who knows? FSD might mature sometime soon. 😉
 
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Protected by the 5 year old trendline, that's actually a thing?? If you draw enough lines in a chart going back 5 years, you will eventually come across a similarity. 😵‍💫
This trendline is only 4 years old, is it any better?

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It's great to see the SP up over $30 from earlier in the week. My brokerage balances look much better.

But you know what's the best thing about yesterday and today? Not seeing the trolls/shorts/FUDsters on this forum! (Not that I see their initial posts since I have most of them on ignore, but I also don't see the countless replies/feeding of the trolls). I'm sure they will be back, but it's nice to see them shut up, if just for a couple of days.
Ain’t it funny how they only show up when there’s blood in the water? Makes you question their…authenticity.
 
Ouch. Well, I suppose I should be glad to have given @Artful Dodger and @wtlloyd a laugh. Neither my ex nor myself found it amusing that the neural net PhD that I received 30 years ago proved less valuable than expected in my career. Ironic that the “AI" (actually NN) talent war now going on is the fiercest talent war Elon says he has seen.

Of course I wasn’t trained as an engineer, I was is the inaugural classes of a couple of Cognitive Science etc. programs, from whence neural networks arose (literally in my case, hope I don’t dox myself here). Though much of NN’s seems to have been renamed or reframed by engineering departments perhaps to have them as their own, to have their own jargon and to sweep "artificial intelligence"’s ignominious roots in rule based systems under the rug (Who here remembers Marvin Minky’s "sterile" comment from the rules v NN’s war or even who Minsky was and that he was on the wrong side of history?) Still, I hear the core is not that that much changed from the late nineties.

Trying to share knowledge from the junction of neuroscience, neural modeling, non-linear dynamics, psychophysics,… is difficult when others don’t speak the lingo. Indeed my posts here using such referents usually went unremarked or in some cases were even deleted.

Fortunately, having a grasp of how vision works computationally (e.g. yet again FCS/BCS) gave me confidence that a camera based approach would work, even if Tesla used just a big Backpropagation network w lots of layers or a variant thereof. Tesla could after all pick up a few tricks from the brain even if it predominantly uses unsupervised learning.

In any case and as with motor learning, we often learn fastest when we miss. And I did, in fact, do one or two things w NN’s professionally. Though no great shakes themselves, the experience provided calibration for estimating the progress of the field.

In investing, it helpful to know approximately when to expect the real deal versus, say, a shiny object.
Irony is often a bitter amusement with a sting.
And then there's Nicola Tesla's life...
 
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Level 3 autonomous vehicles are already being sold in the U.S. They're not being sold by Tesla.
Oh, you mean this gimmicky "Level 3" system...

Drive Pilot's limitations: it only works in daylight and on a pre-mapped freeway network approved by Mercedes. The vehicle will also cede control to the driver when there is construction, inclement weather, poor satellite reception or hard-to-read lane markings. The driver must respond to a takeover request within 10 seconds. If the driver does not answer, the vehicle's emergency stop procedure begins. The vehicle will brake, come to a full stop in its current lane, turn on the hazard lights and bring itself to a standstill. The Mercedes-Benz emergency call system is activated and the doors are unlocked for emergency personnel access.

Plus, the system caps the speed at 40 mph and there has to be a lead car for the system to engage.

Sounds delightful, doesn't it? Autopilot (let alone FSD) is far more capable, as anyone who has used it for over 100k miles across multiple knows.

Quite odd that Tesla won't take liability for vehicles on Autopilot, a feature they've been selling and training for over a decade.
This is disingenous. You'll have to try harder than to suggest Tesla would take liability for Autopilot which, we all know, is not even the system that is being evolved to enable autonomy.
 
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And what will Tesla get by taking liability for vehicles on autopilot besides ...having to take liability? Mercedes need a marketing scheme to make people think their cars are "more autonomous" than a Tesla. Tesla already holds the title for being the most autonomous on the road because their cars actually drives themselves unlike a fake marking campaign.
Engineers left Mercedes in late 80s, when marketing folks took over. If engineers were in charge Mercedes market cap would have been today's 84+53B. Love their brochures, refrigerated apples in service centers, but got tired at 3k/year maintenance costs/upsell to change the leaks/breaks, etc. Boomers are in savings mode now, so MB clientele is melting....
 
I have said that trials with safety drivers could start this year, but yes, I was doubtful about it.

Now, not so much. I could easily see Elon announcing immediate trials on 8/8. But I still don't think driverless Tesla robotaxi is possible until 2025 at the earliest.
I don't know. I'm pessimistic, in general, about software schedules due to my career experience. However, I understand exponential growth. All previous bets are off at this point. It might get wild more quickly than we expect... and it might not.
 
I don't know. I'm pessimistic, in general, about software schedules due to my career experience. However, I understand exponential growth. All previous bets are off at this point. It might get wild more quickly than we expect... and it might not.

One encouraging thing form the call was that inside Tesla they can see the version we will see in 3-6 months and have set the date of Aug 8th for the RT event. Also the reports on the current public version and cadence of improvement vs previous ones leads me to believe they are close, very very close.

It's just a shame Mercedes beat them to it with their Level 3, on a clear day, below 40mph, in traffic, in a straight line, on 3 roads in the US, and when Venus aligns with Jupiter. :rolleyes:
 
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When I read this correctly he exercised the options, so he now has stock, correct?
If he sold the stock, too, that would be visible elsewhere? Sorry for the basic questions, never did anything with options..

Just want to see if this can be interpreted as a voluntary decision to get out of TSLA now instead of later.

Did he even sell or just turn his options into shares?
And as @mongo said, the option sale was not his choice, he had to do that now.

Form 144 is required when selling more than 5,000 shares or $50k of stock within a 3 month period as an executive officer, director, or affiliate level person. The filer must intend to sell the shares in the near-term, but it doesn't mean they have already sold them (not a Form 4).
Taking a quick look at the 82 filings the SEC has from Drew going back to 2019:

His inital filing from 2019 showed 90,665 shares of options comprised of seven guaranteed grants and one 7k performance based item along with ~3k shares. Of course, that is pre-splits so in today's numbers it was ~1.36 million in options and 45k in shares.

His 2019 5 year compensation package (10.5k/month vesting schedule) had 489k vested but unexercised options as of the beginning of April plus he held 31k shares. So total estimated holdings before accounting for sales outside the 2019 plan is ~1.9 million shares.

At least Elon does seem to consider now it according to what he said on the call (that was the first time he mentioned it, right?)
He has mentioned buybacks previously
 
Typically when you leave a company you have 90 days to exercise options or you lose them.
Here's Lora Kolodny's take on the matter from her latest CNBC article:

POINTS
  • Former Tesla SVP Drew Baglino, who announced his resignation earlier this month, is selling 1.14 million of his shares in the company worth $181.5 million, according to a filing with the SEC.
  • CEO Elon Musk said this week that, “If somebody doesn’t believe Tesla’s going to solve autonomy, I think they should not be an investor in the company.”
- 🤡
 
I think it was mentioned only during discussion of how Elon would get to 25% ownership - they could reduce the float by buying back shares, and his percentage of ownership would rise thereby.
Agree, and it was in reference to when Tesla was throwing off profits in the RoboTaxi era. That's the natural time for any company to start buybacks - when they have gone through their heavy CapEx period and their product matures and starts to throw off cash.

I doubt Elon was ever against share buybacks from an ideological position - but he, like many here, could see that having $25b in the bank was not sufficient for buybacks given their future growth plans, product maturity and market cycles.

I still wouldn't expect buybacks until Tesla has something like $100b+ in the back they don't ever see being needed to grow or withstand downturns.
 
BiggiE inda houzzle! 🇿🇦🇨🇦🇺🇸🌎

He's going to make sure Tesla is prosperous. Very prosperous. This is the opening negotiations for his next CEO compensation package. This should be the show and tell part.
When the big strategy calls need to be made, BiggiE always steps up. Great to see him getting hands on to drive the next era of Tesla (which ironically, won't be needed when autonomy is solved)
 
Here's Lora Kolodny's take on the matter from her latest CNBC article:

POINTS
  • Former Tesla SVP Drew Baglino, who announced his resignation earlier this month, is selling 1.14 million of his shares in the company worth $181.5 million, according to a filing with the SEC.
  • CEO Elon Musk said this week that, “If somebody doesn’t believe Tesla’s going to solve autonomy, I think they should not be an investor in the company.”
- 🤡

Lora posts here under the pseudonym of a rum-based cocktail.