Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[gringotuanis]

Yes f

BTW., just curious - is there any data and break-down available on how much money ICE dealerships earn on their various business fields: sales of new cars, maintenance plans, body shops, warranty and recall repairs, etc.?

Yes, they make most money on financing and add ons (tint, etc) as well as the service departments - service and parts is huge. New car sales are very little $$. Mostly dealers get incentives from the manufacturer to hit sales targets but new car margins are slim.

 

[printf42]

OT:
Tinfoil hat time:
Elon liked one of his old tweets yesterday.

Elon Musk on Twitter
Good morning, Sonic. Not sure how to break it to you, but …

Which was posted on Jun-04-2018.

I can not remember what was happening at that time exactly, but IIRC it's around the time for 5k M3 push.
My take is they are doing or already did a 10k M3 push for EU/China.

Also it seems to be the day before shareholder meeting.

An unrelated datapoint is, on Jun-04-2018, TSLA closed at 296.74, two weeks later on Jun-18-2018 it closed at 370.83.

But the more likely case is, SEGA games coming to Tesla soon...

 

[Fact Checking]

If this c.3x is accurate for the whole of Europe then Tesla might have received close to 50k European LR AWD and P orders already.

Sounds very optimistic, I just checked that the German Model 3 configurator is still showing March delivery for new orders submitted today.

 

[AudubonB]

OT: Stephen Colbert cracks a Tesla joke in last night's routine:

"Meanwhile, in the WORLD OF WHEELED MEAT! Oscar Meyer is accepting applications for Weinermobile drivers. Or as the company calls them, 'Hot-Doggers'. It makes sense. If you drive a hot dog, you're a 'Hot-Dogger'. If you drive a truck, you're a 'Trucker'. If you drive a Tesla, you're 'A middle aged man with something to prove'." (waits for audience laughter, raises his hand and nods with an "Yeah, I'm talking about myself!" grin on his face).

Wonder what model he drives...

Wonder what model he drives

Most likely an XY.

 

[AudubonB]

Sold my truck yesterday. Is there a scientific term for the transformation of ICE into dry powder?

Just think "sublime", and take it from there.

 

[anthonyj]

OT:
Tinfoil hat time:
Elon liked one of his old tweets yesterday.
Elon Musk on Twitter


Which was posted on Jun-04-2018, I can not remember what was happening at that time exactly, but IIRC it's around the time for 5k M3 push.
My take is they are doing or already did a 10k M3 push for EU/China.

Also it seems to be the day before shareholder meeting.

An unrelated datapoint is, on Jun-04-2018, TSLA closed at 296.74, two weeks later on Jun-18-2018 it closed at 370.83.

He has definitely raised buy signals in the past. O.P.P. And the “Don’t Panic” Starman tweet.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Sounds very optimistic, I just checked that the German Model 3 configurator is still showing March delivery for new orders submitted today.

Good point, c.3k average European deliveries per week could be c.26k total deliveries in Feb and March, while 5k/week would be c.43k.

Elon said he expected to have to launch the MR in Europe in May.

I would be interested to know which countries are likely to have as high % of company cars as Germany. In Germany it looks like around 50% of EVs purchased in the first 6 months of the incentive scheme were business fleet purchases. https://electrek.co/2017/01/02/germanys-electric-vehicle-incentive-program/
I wouldn't be surprised if this had increased with the significant new corporate tax savings for EVs in Germany.

 

[shlokavica22]

Looking for feedback.

My most leveraged calls right now are some 22 Feb $350s, which I had been planning to convert to 15 Feb $340s right before the ER (roughly the same price when I last checked, although it's been a while). However, I'm thinking about going ahead and selling them on Monday right near market open, but waiting on the purchase of the 15 Feb calls until the 30th - yes, we could keep drifting up between now and then, but I have some jitters about a wrongheaded market overreaction to that "S/X volumes cut in half" report. Plus it'd save me a couple days worth of theta, and if TSLA does take a dive, I could buy $330s instead of $340s for the same price). I wasn't thinking of touching my other, lower-strike calls or my stock.

Does this sound reasonable? If I do sell, I'm trying to think of the best strategy to do so, too - what sort of limit I should put, how I should adjust my price point relative to how the premarket looks, etc. It's made more awkward by Interactive Brokers not giving realtime pricing info on the watchlist unless you pay extra for it.

What do you think - should I sell them at all? And if so how should I approach the sale?

With the information we have now, no matter how you play- it's pure gamble. Therefore I would look at the problem from gambler's perspective- risk vs reward.

1. Worst case scenario- stock tanks after the ER.
2. Stock lingers sideways (for whatever reason- unconvincing results, bad macro, etc).
3. Stock shoots up significantly.


In case 1&2 you are going to lose money even if you convert to $340 strike (IV crash just will add to the pain). However, by shifting the expiration forward, you give yourself even less room for the stock to recover.
If case 3 happens- you will be golden even, if your strike price is $350.
So overall, you add more risk (to eventually lose almost all of your position), when in return you get "slightly" bigger return.

Lastly- you need real time data. If my memory serves me right, the package for options is not expensive at all. Did it change recently?
You have to follow very closely the IV changes in real time and compare the IV between different strikes.

 

[Fact Checking]

It seems pretty simple to me:

ICE-Margins decreasing and that margin decrease accelerates as they "loose" more sales to BEV's Either from other company's ...or their own

EV-Margins increasing as sales and efficiency's are realized (at least in Tesla's case)

While I agree that this is the currently probable path, there's other possible outcomes as well:

• If the 3 trillion dollars ICE market transforms into a 6 trillion EV market then ICE carmakers can grow their EV presence, while increasing margins.
• If Tesla commits worse mistakes than the closest ICE competitor.

 

[Lucky_Man]

This definitely does imply that demand for Model S and X is lower right now.

Which should be expected since the $7500 tax credit just expired. This happens every single time any tax credit for EVs expires anywhere in the world: higher demand just before it expires, lower demand just after, then it resumes its normal level.

Perfect time to get some more downtime on the production lines in order to tweak and improve them.

OR... the factory is reconfiguring in advance of a Model S & X refresh?

 

[jbih]

With the information we have now, no matter how you play- it's pure gamble. Therefore I would look at the problem from gambler's perspective- risk vs reward.

1. Worst case scenario- stock tanks after the ER.
2. Stock lingers sideways (for whatever reason- unconvincing results, bad macro, etc).
3. Stock shoots up significantly.


In case 1&2 you are going to lose money even if you convert to $340 strike (IV crash just will add to the pain). However, by shifting the expiration forward, you give yourself even less room for the stock to recover.
If case 3 happens- you will be golden even, if your strike price is $350.
So overall, you add more risk (to eventually lose almost all of your position), when in return you get "slightly" bigger return.

Lastly- you need real time data. If my memory serves me right, the package for options is not expensive at all. Did it change recently?
You have to follow very closely the IV changes in real time and compare the IV between different strikes.

We're at the lower end of the Bollinger band... Does really anyone expect the stock to tank?

 

[JRP3]

On the surface this isn't a good look:

VICKI SALVADOR‏ @VickiSalvador


Replying to @lorakolodny @lopezlinette


I also received a “performance award”. I opted to receive it in cash and the computer acknowledged that I elected to receive it in cash. I did an electronic signature And was supposed to be paid December 8. Tesla changed the terms and issued me restricted stock then fired me.

VICKI SALVADOR on Twitter

 

[shlokavica22]

We're at the lower end of the Bollinger band... Does really anyone expect the stock to tank?

Holding significant size of short term options demands level-headed approach with very good risk management.

 

[abasile]

It's in Tesla's best interests to convert people from 75D sales into P3D sales. All issues of potentially freeing up floor space at Fremont, reallocating S/X paint shop and stamping time to the 3, etc aside.

My sense is that it's overly optimistic to assume that a large fraction of 75D sales will convert to P3D sales.

The acceleration of the Model 3 AWD is already pretty great, with a 0-60 mph time of about 4.5 seconds. Not everyone cares about accelerating faster than that. If downsizing from a 75D, buying a non-performance Model 3 AWD car is a very easy way for the buyer to save another $10K.

In discontinuing the Model S/X 75D, I hope that Tesla has something up their sleeve. The S and X are great vehicles for families, much more practical than the Model 3 for carrying a carload of people and lots of stuff. Perhaps the Model Y will fill that need to some degree, depending on how much smaller than the Model X it ends up being. I just don't want to see Tesla pricing more families out of the market for its family-sized vehicles.

My hope here is that Tesla will introduce a 120 kWh (or thereabouts) "Very Long Range" battery for the S and X, then lower prices on the 100 kWh battery version!

 

[tsunamiofhurt]

Larry Sabin on Twitter
Parking lot full of inventory in Bellevue, WA

This seems to be close to Seattle ports, so are we gonna see some shipping activity(to China) from here? ~ cheers

Negative. I've been to this lot, it's right next to the Bellevue DC. Maybe 3-400 cars.

 

[jbih]

Holding significant size of short term options demands level-headed approach with very good risk management.

I'll take your answer as: "TSLA can go up or down significantly any time for any reason, including none." (Don't worry, I'm not into short term options.)

 

[tsunamiofhurt]

We're at the lower end of the Bollinger band... Does really anyone expect the stock to tank?

What does the Bolinger band have to do with the stock tanking? If there's negative guidance/news in the earnings release, it's gonna tank.

 

[winfield100]

will the Flying Roadster look vaguely like this?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...a28f2191131_story.html?utm_term=.ab0c3d88b065

 

[EVNow]

My most leveraged calls right now are some 22 Feb $350s, which I had been planning to convert to 15 Feb $340s right before the ER (roughly the same price when I last checked, although it's been a while).

2/22 350 is 5.08. 2/15 340 is 5.85. These are mid prices.

Only good thing about getting 2/15 instead of 2/22 is that being the monthly, 2/15 has more volume. But then, 350 has more volume than 340.

Are you planning to hold till expiry or just sell when SP reaches what you think is the high point ? If former, this change would matter - otherwise it is not significant.

 

[PhaseWhite]

We're at the lower end of the Bollinger band... Does really anyone expect the stock to tank?

I'd like to remind you that prior to Q3 earnings TSLA dropped significantly, closing at 250 on October 8th.