Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Sofie]

With FANG + AAPL+ MS being in top 10 of S&P index by weight, and all having breakout earnings, stocks at ATH, it would be a perfect time to sell some to buy TSLA and balance the index. cheers!!

trying to figure this one out today lol! Sell Apple buy MORE Tesla

 

[StealthP3D]

So long as Tesla's growth is constrained by anything other than available cash, more profit is unlikely to help.

In any case, I said nothing about microcars. What I said was that profits are not the mission. Tesla is not driven by profit.

You missed the point. You implied Tesla shouldn't let the lack of profitability of microcars stop them from making microcars because they care about the mission, not profits.

There is the profitability of the car and then there is the profitability of the company. Tesla doesn't care about the latter (because they want to re-invest profits) and it is the former that allows them to grow and expand to fulfill their mission. At this point in time, microcars do not enable their mission. Tesla's growth is not currently constrained by lack of cash precisely because they DON'T make an unprofitable microcar.

 

[Dangerous Fish]

With FANG + AAPL+ MS being in top 10 of S&P index by weight, and all having breakout earnings, stocks at ATH, it would be a perfect time to sell some to buy TSLA and balance the index. cheers!!

Maybe I made a good move for once?

Last week I sold all my AMZN and NFLX and put it into TSLA. It's been a bit of a rough ride since, but I still feel it's going to be OK when I look back in a few months time.

 

[StealthP3D]

...
But the Cybertruck is expected to be classified as a medium-duty pickup, putting it more on par with Ford’s Super Duty or Chevrolet’s Silverado HD. Musk told Automotive News the Cybertruck would not be sold globally.

Ha! At first!

“We’re really, fundamentally making this truck as a North American ass-kicker, basically,” he said. “The goal is to kick the most amount of ass possible with this truck. We want it to be something you could use to tow a boat, a horse trailer, pull tree stumps out of the ground, go off-roading and you don’t have to worry about scratching the paint because there is no paint. You could just be smashing boulders and be fine.”

Musk said at least 200,000 customers have put down refundable $100 deposits for the Cybertruck since the company started taking them in November. But despite the competitive barbs thrown at Ford, he’s not necessarily seeking to steal market share from the established players by poaching their pickup customers.
....

They have a lot more reservations than 200,000! Musk is downplaying how successful the Cybertruck will be while simultaneously drumming up more demand for it with statements like those above and that below. It's obvious he has a dim view of the existing OEM's and wants them to remain complacent right up until they realize just how badly it has gone.

“So it’s probably helpful in the apocalypse,” he said. “Things are seeming more apocalyptic these days. Let me tell you, the truck you want in the apocalypse is the Cybertruck.”

This appeals to the portion of the market that wouldn't normally buy a Cybertruck. You know, people who think old tech is what's going to get them through potentially difficult times. Elon has masterfully taken away the perception that the Cybertruck threatens the loved and iconic brands of Ford, GMC and Dodge while simultaneously making the same people who would normally buy from those companies want a Cybertruck of their own!

Briilliant!

 

[vikings123]

Thought this was a decent video of the progress we’re seeing:

Hmmm..I stopped watching after he said the 25 million shares S&P will have to buy will add $34B to Tesla's cash increasing their cash position to $40+B. Tesla currently has $8B in cash and once S&P buys the 25 million shares they will have 40B in cash. And that is the checkmate move? Seriously?

 

[EVMeister]

Hmmm..I stopped watching after he said the 25 million shares S&P will have to buy will add $34B to Tesla's cash increasing their cash position to $40+B. Tesla currently has $8B in cash and once S&P buys the 25 million shares they will have 40B in cash. And that is the checkmate move? Seriously?

I thought the rest of the video was quite interesting, although not news to us here. It was hard to get over the absurd statements about Tesla getting $40+B, though.

 

[Bet TSLA]

There is nothing in Tesla's mission statement that it is a non-profit charity.

You can't have a sustainable company without profits.

You can't give product away at a loss or for cost.

They don't build Gigafactories nor Supercharger Networks on non-profits.

Transitioning the world to sustainable production and consumption of renewable energy is going to be very expensive. And it won't be funded by donations by ExxonMobil.

Without attention to profits Tesla becomes Ecotricity.

Elon Musk is not Dale Vince.

Not a vanity project. Elon and Tesla are about real change.

Sure, we agree that Tesla is not about losing money. But my point is that Tesla's mission is not profits. There's no reason to ever assume that given two choices, one of which is more profitable, that they'll obviously choose that one. They won't. So long as they aren't losing money, they'll make the choice that best advances the mission. The most important reason for me that I put most of my money is TSLA is that they aren't driven by profits -- profits are a by-product of something much more important to them (and to me, and to the world).

Elon even reiterated that on the latest conference call. There's a transcript here. Here's the relevant bit.

Toni Sacconaghi -- AllianceBernstein -- Analyst

Thank you. And if I could just follow up. Elon, you've talked a lot about the mission of the company and really trying to drive EV adoption globally. So how do you think about that trade-off between driving toward industry-leading profitability yet trying to make your cars more affordable and broader? It feels like, historically, you've always picked the path of I'd rather drive more growth and more adoption because, ultimately, that's the mission of the company.

And we even saw it a little bit this quarter with price reductions. You could have probably kept price where it is, sold some units and had better profits, but that's been an ongoing choice that Tesla, as a company, has made. So how do you personally think about that trade-off between -- even if you were to get to industry-leading margins, wouldn't you be inclined to give more of that back to drive a greater adoption more quickly?

Elon Musk -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Well, I think we actually achieved both when you factor in autonomy. I think we can go way beyond industry margins and have the car be affordable to more and more people and potentially almost everyone when you're factoring in autonomy, but that was really a mega game changer, giga game changer, yes. But I mean, it is important for people to distinguish between two things. There's value for money that our product has, and then there's affordability.

And even if you have real-life money and have value for money, like infinite, if people don't have enough -- if people do not have enough money in their bank account to buy the car, they simply cannot. So then you used to have this cycle or something that nobody can buy, so it is important to make the car affordable. And we will not succeed in our mission if we do not make cars affordable. Like the thing that bugs me the most about where we are right now is that our cars are not affordable enough.

We need to fix that. So we're all making progress in that regard, just sort of steadily gaining progress. So yes, we need to not go bankrupt. Obviously, that's important because that will fail in our mission, but we're not trying to be super profitable either.

Obviously, profitability is like 1% or something, this 1% or 2%. It's not crazy. Last quarter, it was only like 0.1%. So we want to be profitable.

Like I think just we want to be like slightly profitable and maximize growth and make the cars as affordable as possible, and that's what we're trying to achieve.

 

[Bet TSLA]

You missed the point. You implied Tesla shouldn't let the lack of profitability of microcars stop them from making microcars because they care about the mission, not profits.

I didn't miss the point, I made a point. I have no opinion on microcars and wasn't commenting on them. Strictly your imagination.

My point is that profits are not Tesla's mission. On that I think we agree, so go argue with somebody else.

 

[Favguy]

We all should see how this will likely play out now.... Elon tours of a few pyramids & swiftly figures out the reboot sequence, reactivating the long-dormant worldwide grid. Then the builders return....

Let's hope not, the goa'uld are a pretty nasty lot!

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Tesla's Culture & Fast Action Cracked The Code Of Automobile Innovation


https://insideevs.com/feature/436448/tesla-fast-action-culture-auto-industry-innovation/

Philippe Chain recently told one such tale to Frederic Filloux, Editor of the Monday Note. This anecdote provides an engaging example of how Tesla’s culture of quick innovation and improvisation keeps it a couple of steps ahead of the legacy automakers.

 

[Christine69420]

Tesla just wanted a weird truck, Elon Musk says

...
But the Cybertruck is expected to be classified as a medium-duty pickup, putting it more on par with Ford’s Super Duty or Chevrolet’s Silverado HD. Musk told Automotive News the Cybertruck would not be sold globally.

Someone got their lines crossed. Many Norwegians have pre-ordered the Cybertruck. As I'm sure people have in many other countries.

I'm also sure for the first months the Cybertruck will only be available in the US. But not forever. Eventually it will be available globally.

 

[Maxstorz]

I was wondering what investors here thought of AAPL 4:1 split
I am a long term investor in both TSLA and AAPL and was wondering if my next move would be adding extra AAPL or TSLA to my portfolio

 

[ABCTG]

Tesla's Culture & Fast Action Cracked The Code Of Automobile Innovation


https://insideevs.com/feature/436448/tesla-fast-action-culture-auto-industry-innovation/

Philippe Chain recently told one such tale to Frederic Filloux, Editor of the Monday Note. This anecdote provides an engaging example of how Tesla’s culture of quick innovation and improvisation keeps it a couple of steps ahead of the legacy automakers.

How the Tesla Way keeps it ahead of the pack

Legacy automakers have known for decades that people wanted electric vehicles.
Their solution was to make vague promises of EVs sometime in the future, such as displaying concept vehicles at car shows, but they always planned to only make ICE vehicles.

The sad thing is if/when the legacy automakers do produce EVs they will take credit for and act like they invented the benefits of an EV, such as low maintenance and instant torque.


Tesla was able to survive as a start-up in an entrenched auto market with this combination of fast action and filling the long term pent up customer demand for viable EVs.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Let's

I was wondering what investors here thought of AAPL 4:1 split
I am a long term investor in both TSLA and AAPL and was wondering if my next move would be adding extra AAPL or TSLA to my portfolio

What board are you posting this message to....You should know what response you will get.

 

[ZeApelido]

Most Informative Posts of the Last Week:

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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable (by Johann Koeber)

Something's up:

Just got an Tesla survey email. They are inquiring if I want a TESLA energy provider contract. They would deliver the electricity using solar, powerwall etc and I only pay per use.

Looks they are preparing to become a utility in Germany.

Or they are just doing a survey ..

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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable (by Cherry Wine)

Interesting - Tesla Board Member James Murdoch has resigned from the News Corp board. Makes me feel better about his presence on the Tesla Board, frankly.

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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable (by gluu)

Interesting Munro chat. He mentions that Model 3 battery pack was 135$/kWh while Model Y is 110$/kWh. This must mean that the roadrunner batteries must be significantly cheaper than 100/kWh in my opinion. Mentioned at 1:11:00

Also mentions that Munro does work on mining equipment and that he’s heard things about Tesla looking for Nickel mining equipment. Mentioned at 45:40.

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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable (by JBRR)

Panasonic to boost energy density in Tesla batteries 20%

TOKYO -- Panasonic plans to boost the energy density of the battery cells it supplies to Tesla by 20 percent in five years and commercialize a cobalt-free version "in two to three years," the head of its U.S. EV battery business said.

....

Panasonic has already developed technologies resulting in a more than 5 percent increase in the energy density of 2170 cells.

Starting in September, the supplier will begin converting lines at its factory in Nevada that it operates with Tesla as it prepares to further boost the energy density of the cells, Takamoto said.



original source:
Exclusive: Panasonic aims to boost energy density in Tesla batteries by 20% - executive

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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable (by JBRR)

Panasonic Q2 results.

https://www.panasonic.com/global/corporate/ir/pdf/2020_1q/1q_financial_results_e.pdf

Tesla related bits:

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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable (by avoigt)

Volkswagen
1H20 Loss: -€1.5bn
Revenue: -25%
Deliveries: -27%

A profit and loss delta of $13bn 1H19 versus 20.

Devastating results. VW CFO claims to be cautiously positive about end half 20 because of new Models and development of last weeks. I ask myself if that's wishful thinking. Some buyers returned but numbers are still low. ID.3 does not sell so far like the wished-for despite them claiming victory. In fact, only 50% of the limited first edition ID.3 found a buyer and that's just 15k vehicles. German Dealers saying that people watch the ID.3 with interest but wait until they have seen it and test drove.

The vehicle has some flaws e.g. cheap interior with a lot of plastic, voice control does not work a.o.. Prices are extra cheap therefore and given the low BEV numbers of VW I can't imagine how they can make a profit in 2020.

The CFO gives the guidance that VW intends to make a profit this year but that's quite an uphill battle. The dividend is cut.
VW in der Corona-Krise: Umsatz brutal eingebrochen – Auto-Gigant greift zu radikaler Maßnahme | Wirtschaft

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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable (by JBRR)

FCA earnings call.

They spend 400m eur on regulatory emission credit purchases in 2020 H1 and expect to spend similar amount in H2.

Tesla’s “one time” earnings seem to be awfully consistent.
If you are a professional analyst and still refer to these as one time earnings you should be fired at this point.

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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable (by ZachF)

size comparison.... wonder how large Giga Texas will end up being

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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable (by willow_hiller)

New bond offering pegged to vehicle leases:

Tesla plans $780 million bond deal pegged to vehicle leases—its first such offering during the pandemic

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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable (by engle)

Interesting breakdown of the GAAP "deferred revenue" from 10-Q. They "expect to recognize $876M in the next 12 months" out of a total of $1.61B remaining as of June 30, 2020. That's a lot!

Like

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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable (by Jackl1956)

I am frustrated, aggravated, and down right pissed off about the valuation argument...

Ford plans $11 billion investment, 40 electrified vehicles by 2022

General Motors to spend $20 billion through 2025 on new electric, autonomous vehicles

VW Challenges Rivals With $66 Billion for Electric Car Era

Toyota unveils images of upcoming all-electric cars, accelerates EV plans by 5 years - Electrek


https://www.industryweek.com/techno...t-9-billion-in-china-in-race-for-ev-dominance

FCA to invest billions to electrify 30 models | Car News | Auto123

Volvo Follows Tesla's Lead on EVs by Building Its Own Batteries

Porsche boosts its investment in electric cars

Hyundai Motor tees up flying cars, electric vehicles with $52 billion investment - Roadshow

Daimler announces $11 billion investment in electric vehicles - Electrek

Do not call me Fanboy. If you must, just call me Captain Obvious. It is blatantly obvious to the most casual observer that Tesla has disrupted the entirety of the automotive and petroleum industries.

To utter the term overvalued in reference to Tesla is idiotic. In a clear, loud, and deliberate voice Tesla is undervalued.

The revolution is afoot. It is time to speak with the voice of a lion.

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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable (by GrandEnigma)

I’ve been a long time lurker and guilty of never having signed up, let alone contributed anything of substance. That said, I greatly appreciate much of the banter that goes on in this thread on a daily basis. It’s has also subsidized much of my life over the past 6 to 8 years.

The Mercedes B class Electric Drive has been the ideal car for me for the past 8 years. At the time (2012), it had the fit and finish that far surpassed that of Tesla, but had the single greatest benefit of having a Tesla, the drive train.

This has been the ideal city car for me living in New Jersey and commuting to New York City. I have even managed to fit three children in it over the years.

Over the past few years, with the release of the 3 and Y, I have considered upgrading, but every time I have decided to take that money and invest it in the mission instead.

it makes me sad to see the legacy auto makers continuously turn down Tesla and decide they have a better pulse on what it is people want.

If my car had access to the super charger network I would honestly never considering upgrading as I simply love the fit and finish of Mercedes.

I understand that my use-case does not speak for everybody and if I had a justifiable use for an infotainment system, additional range, or self driving, I would go to a Tesla in a heartbeat.

I have a cybertruck on order as it is the first vehicle that addresses a number of unique use-cases and just flat out cool features that I have never seen, but clearly need

Thank you everyone for all that you contribute to this thread on a daily basis.

Here’s to $250, $500, $900, $1500 and beyond.

Aside from my modified home charger (20ft cable), I will be adding solar and Power Walls to my home in the coming months thanks to the recent price improvements.

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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable (by Right_Said_Fred)

TMC allows many different viewpoints, also ones critical of Tesla and Elon Musk, and censoring is not the preferred weapon of a moderator. But the link to a Reddit post containing hundreds of fake stories about Elon clearly does not belong on this forum. So it was removed, and so were all responses to it.

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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable (by The Accountant)

Fair question. With past results, there have always been a few statistics that bears would highlight to spread doubt. The Q3 2020 results put these doubts to rest.

Tesla is not profitable without Regulatory Credits (no longer true)
Tesla loses money on each car sold (this was never true but more obvious now with profits excluding Reg Credits)
The more cars Tesla sells, the more they lose (the opposite is clearly true now… revenues will grow 31% and GAAP profits will grow 242%....the Operating Leverage is huge).
Even with growth in vehicles, revenues have declined or remained flat (no longer true)
There is not enough demand to meet the production of two factories at full capacity (Q3 is the first test and Tesla has passed…demand has met ramped up production)
Price Cuts will weaken margins (nope…margins went up)
Tesla share price is too high (Sorry Elon..it's actually cheap - at $3.50 non-GAAP EPS for Q3, that is $14 annualized giving Tesla a 100 P/E ratio - Amazon was at a P/E of 236 when it first turned profitable (as are many growth companies)...at a 236 P/E, Tesla SP would have to be at $3,300)
With the Q3 results, the only FUD remaining is “the financials are fraudulent”. At that point, it is only the tin foil hats remaining in the FUD club.

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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable (by Right_Said_Fred)

Can’t a mod get some rest? You all know political talk has no place here. Take it to the Market Politics thread.

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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable (by JBRR)

Btw, the 10Q dropping means the S&P inclusion clock has started.

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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable (by Words of HABIT)

@Curt Renz, I luv ya, but enough of NKLA. When Nikola Motors start manufacturing cars include them for comparison, but not before. Putting Nikola in the same context as Tesla, and even other OEM, is a disservice to all.

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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable (by CaliBear1)

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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable (by NicoV)

So Tesla increased its yearly sales 5x from 2017 to 2020, while dealing with extreme stress. According to AJ, it will take 10 years for the next 5x while dealing with extreme positive cash flow. Makes sense.
NOT!

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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable (by SOULPEDL)

Everything I learned here and from Monroe about outsourcing by big auto and how they now lack the skills internally, together with all the comparisons to Tesla on Vertical Integration, and now I'm reading about Intel planning the same... shameful, but not surprising.
Intel Corp’s plan to outsource manufacturing is the end of an era in US tech
I'm saddened, as I was among many engineers over the past decade who were let go mainly from a cost perspective. My last Achievement Award Plaque was handed to me on my exit walk. Ya that really happened, 15 ft from the exit door as my boss said "Better late than never."
(In hindsight, it was the best thing that happened to my career.)

23 yrs with Intel, and they just threw away my experience - didn't even ask. In HR circles the "Knowledge Management" group of elites did their best to quantify the potential losses to this new thinning process by lump sum "Separation Package", but the shareholders wouldn't listen. Human Capital has always been hard to put to dollar figures, so they made the choice to ignore it for short-term gain. (And all the KM expert systems that were proposed, in order to capture this knowledge first? Ya, not funded.) Now to watch them fumble Production and Process, I guess I'm not surprised. But at this point, what choice do they have if they just can't do it anymore themselves.

Contrasting Tesla strategy, everytime I hear Elon speak lately it's to recruit talent. I've never seen this type of focus, ever. His priorities seem to be Battery Costs, FSD, Manufacturing, and Humans - up there in the top 5 anyway and probably #1 priority in Giga Berlin with all the EU hiring rules.

Love

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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable (by ggr)

Not I. 8 years old in a couple of weeks. I took it out for a lovely drive in the hills yesterday. Also I wouldn't say "reworked"; yes, the door handles went through multiple iterations in the first few months, and there was a battery connector failure a year or two in, but nothing major for the 29th car off the line.

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https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4872850 (by Jackl1956)

I am frustrated, aggravated, and down right pissed off about the valuation argument...

Ford plans $11 billion investment, 40 electrified vehicles by 2022

General Motors to spend $20 billion through 2025 on new electric, autonomous vehicles

VW Challenges Rivals With $66 Billion for Electric Car Era

Toyota unveils images of upcoming all-electric cars, accelerates EV plans by 5 years - Electrek


https://www.industryweek.com/techno...t-9-billion-in-china-in-race-for-ev-dominance

FCA to invest billions to electrify 30 models | Car News | Auto123

Volvo Follows Tesla's Lead on EVs by Building Its Own Batteries

Porsche boosts its investment in electric cars

Hyundai Motor tees up flying cars, electric vehicles with $52 billion investment - Roadshow

https://www.google.com/amp/s/electrek.co/2016/11/27/daimler-investment-electric-vehicles/amp/

Do not call me Fanboy. If you must, just call me Captain Obvious. It is blatantly obvious to the most casual observer that Tesla has disrupted the entirety of the automotive and petroleum industries.

To utter the term overvalued in reference to Tesla is idiotic. In a clear, loud, and deliberate voice Tesla is undervalued.

The revolution is afoot. It is time to speak with the voice of a lion.

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https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4870002 (by LN1_Casey)

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1287828284852535301

Karen got a reply from Overlord Musk!

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https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4868635 (by CorneliusXX)

Glad to see this is playing out. I look forward to more drone videos.

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https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4873526 (by Curt Renz)

Reuters - early this morning: End game for oil? OPEC prepares for an age of dwindling demand

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https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4873788 (by Mike Smith)

At 36:20:

"Without a question of a doubt Tesla is the best energy company, new energy company on the planet. And they will dominate, I'm sure of it."
-Sandy Munro

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https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4868825 (by The Accountant)

Fair question. With past results, there have always been a few statistics that bears would highlight to spread doubt. The Q3 2020 results put these doubts to rest.

Tesla is not profitable without Regulatory Credits (no longer true)
Tesla loses money on each car sold (this was never true but more obvious now with profits excluding Reg Credits)
The more cars Tesla sells, the more they lose (the opposite is clearly true now… revenues will grow 31% and GAAP profits will grow 242%....the Operating Leverage is huge).
Even with growth in vehicles, revenues have declined or remained flat (no longer true)
There is not enough demand to meet the production of two factories at full capacity (Q3 is the first test and Tesla has passed…demand has met ramped up production)
Price Cuts will weaken margins (nope…margins went up)
Tesla share price is too high (Sorry Elon..it's actually cheap - at $3.50 non-GAAP EPS for Q3, that is $14 annualized giving Tesla a 100 P/E ratio - Amazon was at a P/E of 236 when it first turned profitable (as are many growth companies)...at a 236 P/E, Tesla SP would have to be at $3,300)
With the Q3 results, the only FUD remaining is “the financials are fraudulent”. At that point, it is only the tin foil hats remaining in the FUD club.

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https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4870931 (by BlackS)

I don't even drive a facelifted Model S and i am still in awe every time i see my car and other pre-facelifted model S's. I think it is just something about the smooth lines and sexy body that still appeals to me almost 10 years later!

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https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4871908 (by CaliBear1)

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https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4874656 (by Curt Renz)

Barron's - half hour ago: Tesla Might Be ‘Mind-Boggling Cheap’ at $1,500

Excerpt:

Former Bernstein analyst Gary Black, and a Tesla bull, disagrees with the majority. Black took to Twitter (TWTR) on Wednesday to riff on Sacconaghi's comments, calling Tesla's valuation "mind-boggling cheap." Black believes traditional auto analysts are missing the boat and that Tesla should be thought of more like a tech company.

Helpful

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https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4873085 (by Right_Said_Fred)

I’ve been weeding out colon stories and jokes all evening, and so has a retired mod. Can we drop this shitty subject?!

I prefer not to post in my mod role this often, but lately this thread has been meandering aimlessly...

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https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4868714 (by new_sneakers)

Jeff Dahn said they’d cracked microcracking, on Slide 20 of his presentation at UBC:


“So really it comes down to a very simple thing. To make a really good lithium-ion cell you have to do 2 things:

Limiting the reactions between the charged electrode materials and the electrolyte is the first, and ...

Eliminate the microcracking. That’s the second.

If you do those two things, you can make a really good lithium ion cell, and that’s what we did. I’ll explain how we did it, to make the so-called million mile battery that the media got so excited about.”

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https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4869058 (by Right_Said_Fred)

TMC allows many different viewpoints, also ones critical of Tesla and Elon Musk, and censoring is not the preferred weapon of a moderator. But the link to a Reddit post containing hundreds of fake stories about Elon clearly does not belong on this forum. So it was removed, and so were all responses to it.

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https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4869253 (by BlackS)

Interesting excerpt from this book:




One example within the book deals with separating noise and signal (meaning) within investing. Let’s say you have a dentist that can invest with a 15% average annual return with 10% annual volatility. For reference, the S&P 500 index has a ~10% average annual return and ~14% average annual volatility. The dentist has good thing going, with the portfolio doubling in value every 5 years on average.

An unexpected factor in his success is the frequency upon which he looks at his portfolio balance. Here’s a chart from the book showing the probability of a positive change in value based on how often the portfolio is checked.



If he were to check his portfolio every minute, he would only see a positive return 50.17% of the time. That is basically indiscernible from a coin flip. The problem is loss aversion.

Being emotional, he feels a pang with every loss, as it shows in red on his screen. He feels some pleasure when the performance is positive, but not in equivalent amount as the pain experienced when the performance is negative.

At the end of every day the dentist will be emotionally drained. A minute-by-minute examination of his performance means that each day (assuming eight hours per day) he will have 241 pleasurable minutes against 239 unpleasurable ones. These amount to 60,688 and 60,271, respectively, per year. Now realize that if the unpleasurable minute is worse in reverse pleasure than the pleasurable minute is in pleasure terms, then the dentist incurs a large deficit when examining his performance at a high frequency.

Again, this doesn’t go away even if you know about the phenomenon:

Regardless of what people claim, a negative pang is not offset by a positive one (some psychologists estimate the negative effect for an average loss to be up to 2.5 the magnitude of a positive one); it will lead to an emotional deficit.

Now, if he were to check that same portfolio only when his monthly statement arrives, he would see a positive return 67% of the time (2 out of 3). Finally, if he has the patience to check only once a year, she would see a positive return 93% of the time. The time scale matters.

Thought i'd share this with TMC......

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https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4868243 (by ZeApelido)

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https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4873757 (by Bet TSLA)

You know, you guys just aren't hearing what Elon is saying. The way that Tesla shares technology and fulfills the mission and makes a profit is by selling the product: the factory. Everybody needs more batteries, so here's the IP to build yourself a battery factory. You need a drive train? Here's what you'll need to build a drive train factory. Collect royalties. Let factories proliferate using other people's money and people and time and government support. Tesla doesn't starve itself of batteries or drive trains or anything else.

And software? I suspect they just license it, but it's possible they can sell a software factory as well. Very difficult. Never been done before. So I suspect just licensing. But they could also open source a fair chunk of it.

And as Elon has made very clear, what protects them and keeps them ahead is their pace of innovation. It's a helluva challenging approach.

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https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4877164 (by jbcarioca)

Factually we do not know because they did not disclose specific questions nor percentage responses. We do know the JDPower questionnaire design rewards conventional simplicity and penalizes complexity or innovative design. I do not ever rely on spoken generalizations for any Mercer research from any source. I always examine actual questions and response distribution.

That is probably the result of decades of commissioning, using, developing and interpreting consumer research, mostly in automotive and consumer finance. It si very common for well-meaning people to misinterpret results according to their inherent bias. Having done exactly that myself to my detriment I am acutely aware of that risk.

JD Power is quite sensitive to the needs and desires of their corporate customers.

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https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4879441 (by Artful Dodger)

Often, if you find the same Headline on Twitter from one of BB's writers, they include a link to the full article: (comme ça)

https://twitter.com/SarahPonczek/status/1289167149202735104

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https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4882680 (by BlackS)

Ill give you a story... back in 2014, i had 300 shares of apple with a cost basis of about $80/share....it had been steadily going up and shot up to $645 when they announced a 7 for 1 split. I thought to myself, like you, can there be more upside? So i sold it for a $170k profit. Nice you would think! Fast forward to today...If i did not sell it..i would have 2100 shares at the closing price of $425.04. (Cost per share = $11.42)

To sum it up for you:

Sold in 2014: Profit $170k

If i held till today:

2100 shares = $892,584 - cost basis of $24k = $868,584. They announced a stock split 4:1 so i would have 8400 shares with a cost basis of 24k, which equals $2.85/share.

Now, ask yourself 'do you think there is more upside?'

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https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4869029 (by jbcarioca)

Funny! Actually the more money one has the less tax generally is likely to be paid, in percentage terms in the US and many other countries. That is entirely different than is the taxation for dividends in general. Obviously, when the shares are held in tax preferred instruments there is zero or little taxation, or at least long deferral of tax. Then there is carried interest and so many other techniques. None of that reflects the general reality that some, but far from all, investments have taxes paid by both source and recipient. That is true of dividends.

The US tax code and those of other countries in which I personally have been subject to taxation (inter alia France, UK, Brazil, Bahamas) is so skewed in favor of people who are already high income/high net worth that very little tax has been payable for me, and I am not nearly so well off as are many others. The only taxes that tend to actually be paid by richer people usually are property tax, sales tax/VAT and the odd road tax. Most of those taxes can be themselves tax-deductible with appropriate investment vehicles.

TSLA shareholders are different than that to the extent of ~10% or so of float is held by individuals who do not have enough resources to effectively eliminate taxation on income. For those people the taxation at source and to beneficiary on the same transaction can be significant. In any case TSLA will not be paying dividends anytime soon.

This could quickly devolve into seriously off-topic. If this debate needs further conversation we probably should go to Market Politics.

Funny

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https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4878101 (by MTL_HABS1909)

All these stocks going UP on positive earnings. So strange....

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https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4869367 (by dl003)

So this board is basically an emotional support group with some business intelligence sprinkled in.
Sounds about right.

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https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4874863 (by Right_Said_Fred)

You’ll never miss any Tesla news if you follow this thread. Every link or video gets posted two or three times..

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https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4875576 (by Right_Said_Fred)

Now that we know how everyone's colon is doing, let's check out those ears...

No, let's not.

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https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4874042 (by Electric Dream)

Just to remind eveyone...

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https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4870638 (by Big Time)

His diapers full

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https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4877334 (by Todd Burch)

Me watching TSLA the last few days:

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https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4882346 (by dl003)

Somebody needs to inform BI that their server is compromised.

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https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4874960 (by MaChiMiB)

And Jessica from Arizona (to go 10:25)





sry couldn't resist.

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https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4876888 (by Mike Smith)

Computing is the new horsepower, carmaker Audi says

Watch out Tesla, Audi is going to learn computers.

Disagree

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https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4871661 (by StealthP3D)

There is nothing inherently "luxurious" about having a display behind the steering wheel - in fact it's about the stupidest place to put important driving information, especially since steering wheels rotate while driving and most are now adjustable for better ergonomics. The only reason it seems like a natural place is because cars have had speedometers behind the steering wheel since before any of us were born. That doesn't mean it's better.

I've put a few hundred miles on two different Model S's and two things struck me:

1) The display behind the steering wheel is difficult to use. The steering wheel obscures it as it rotates and the best driving ergonomics with the adjustable steering wheel do not correspond to the line of sight to the display (at leas for me). There was only one steering wheel adjustment where I could see the entire display and this was too high for driving comfort. Luxurious? That's funny!

2) The inside ambience of the Model S is like a cave compared to the Model 3. I'm 6'-4" tall and the roof where it meets the top of the windshield intrudes into my driver space and reduces visibility upwards when trying to look at traffic lights up above. It also reduces forward visibility when the car is descending a steep hill that then flattens out. Compared to the Model 3 which feels open, airy and liberating, it just feels repressive and claustrophobic. This sense is enhanced by the high doors (the windows do not extend downwards enough and the top of the door is too low). I had to lower the seat all the way which made me feel like I was sitting on a low sled and yet it did not solve these issues.

You must have a different idea of what luxurious means than I do. I could never get used to the closed in feeling of the Model S after driving Model 3's for 2+ years. And having important information displayed behind the steering wheel that rotates to control the cars direction is the definition of stupid. It worked better before power steering when wheels were huge skinny things but now that they are smaller diameter and must contain airbags, it's far from ideal.

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https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4869960 (by Nocturnal)

Elon needs to relax on this red pill MAGA nonsense. When you have Iraq war veterans commanding national guard troops in DC coming out against the use of tear gas on peaceful protestors, I don't think the left has lost anything.

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https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4873777 (by Ocelot)

firstly, fan of your posts. Got to disagree with this one though. Tesla has been manufacturing vehicles for a decade now...and fit and finish lags behind ...still. That will not change in a few years. Improve, yes..,best? , I highly doubt it...although would like to be wrong.

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https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4869975 (by SpaceCash)

Navy vet here. Elon is right on.

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https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4869965 (by Tim S)

Please don't allow this type of thinking to prevent you from voting for Biden, like happened to Hillary. There is a huge difference between Democrat and Republican policies, especially concerning the environment. The current administration has been the biggest disaster for this country (and the world) in decades. We have to stop it in November.

To get this on topic... a Democratic administration with Biden's version of a "Green New Deal" would be a huge boost to Tesla and the environment in general.

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https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4881342 (by tinm)

Only, this is not accurate. You can configure a car, place an order for a car, and plunk down money for the reservation fee, sure, maybe in 2 minutes.

Then Tesla’s website has a whole set of forms you go through, especially if you’re trading in a car. Then you run into a situation where you have a question. So you email or call the Tesla rep. Assuming you don’t get an immediate reply, you wait. Then you wait some more. Then there’s delivery. Inevitable new questions arise. From either party. On it goes.

I just traded in an old S for a new S and I must have spent 10 total hours over the course of a week in email or on the phone getting the transaction done. Since delivery I’ve already had one service visit requiring a follow-up with warranty replacement parts. Love the car, but there’s always a surprise.

Elon lives in a perfect world.

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https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4869964 (by UnknownSoldier)

Cancel culture has dramatically turned the tide of public opinion against the Screeching Left on Twitter. Elon lives on Twitter so this is the nonsense he sees every day.

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https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4868984 (by hacer)

This is a bogus right-wing talking point. You may as well say that salaries paid to employees of companies are double-taxed (actually taxed to the Nth power) because purchasers of the sold goods or services have already paid taxes on their income used to pay for them.
Generally speaking, money is taxed whenever it changes hands. The wealthy already have all sorts of special exceptions carved out for themselves to minimize or eliminate taxes when it flows into their hands but it's never low enough to satisfy them so they spout this BS.

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https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4869822 (by azaz)

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1287818109651431427

insert meme about Kanye and Musk embarrassing their partners by repeatedly tweeting right wing propaganda

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https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4876863 (by Knightshade)

Unless you have some reason to think that Tesla owners, specifically, would choose to self-report problems at a much higher rate than all other car brands your logic does not hold up.


Even if reporting is biased toward those with problems in general, it should be roughly similar degree of bias across brands right?

In which case Tesla having far more fit and finish problems compared to other brands in such a survey would still be a statistically valid and relevant result.

 

[ABCTG]

At our last visit to the Fremont factory, I noticed the employee vehicles in the parking lot were mostly ICE vehicles.

All the vehicles used to transport Teslas are ICE vehicles.*

For Giga Shanghai/Berlin/Austin all the vehicles used in the construction process are ICE vehicles.



It was obvious that one day we would be using ICE and oil for one last time to build the new energy products. I now see that we are at the real turning point.

Each ICE vehicle will be replaced by an EV.

EVs are more efficient and are close to being more economical than ICE vehicles.

Each ICE vehicle that is out there is now an opportunity to sell batteries.

For anyone who has watched the Giga construction progress drone videos at Shanghai, Berlin and now Austin,
it is watching in real time the transition to sustainable energy and transportation.










*Tesla uses the prototype semis for logistics.

 

[Curt Renz]

Sure, we agree that Tesla is not about losing money. But my point is that Tesla's mission is not profits. There's no reason to ever assume that given two choices, one of which is more profitable, that they'll obviously choose that one. They won't. So long as they aren't losing money, they'll make the choice that best advances the mission. The most important reason for me that I put most of my money is TSLA is that they aren't driven by profits -- profits are a by-product of something much more important to them (and to me, and to the world).

Elon even reiterated that on the latest conference call. There's a transcript here. Here's the relevant bit.

Toni Sacconaghi -- AllianceBernstein -- Analyst

Thank you. And if I could just follow up. Elon, you've talked a lot about the mission of the company and really trying to drive EV adoption globally. So how do you think about that trade-off between driving toward industry-leading profitability yet trying to make your cars more affordable and broader? It feels like, historically, you've always picked the path of I'd rather drive more growth and more adoption because, ultimately, that's the mission of the company.

And we even saw it a little bit this quarter with price reductions. You could have probably kept price where it is, sold some units and had better profits, but that's been an ongoing choice that Tesla, as a company, has made. So how do you personally think about that trade-off between -- even if you were to get to industry-leading margins, wouldn't you be inclined to give more of that back to drive a greater adoption more quickly?

Elon Musk -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Well, I think we actually achieved both when you factor in autonomy. I think we can go way beyond industry margins and have the car be affordable to more and more people and potentially almost everyone when you're factoring in autonomy, but that was really a mega game changer, giga game changer, yes. But I mean, it is important for people to distinguish between two things. There's value for money that our product has, and then there's affordability.

And even if you have real-life money and have value for money, like infinite, if people don't have enough -- if people do not have enough money in their bank account to buy the car, they simply cannot. So then you used to have this cycle or something that nobody can buy, so it is important to make the car affordable. And we will not succeed in our mission if we do not make cars affordable. Like the thing that bugs me the most about where we are right now is that our cars are not affordable enough.

We need to fix that. So we're all making progress in that regard, just sort of steadily gaining progress. So yes, we need to not go bankrupt. Obviously, that's important because that will fail in our mission, but we're not trying to be super profitable either.

Obviously, profitability is like 1% or something, this 1% or 2%. It's not crazy. Last quarter, it was only like 0.1%. So we want to be profitable.

Like I think just we want to be like slightly profitable and maximize growth and make the cars as affordable as possible, and that's what we're trying to achieve.

So Elon says. It's good sounding PR for governments and the broader car buying pubic. But Elon wants wants SpaceX to build a community on Mars. For that he'll need a boatload of personal money from Tesla to reinvest in SpaceX. He can get it by Tesla continually hitting targets that grant him huge monetary benefits. Meanwhile, Tesla keeps needing income to fill the world with Gigafactories and electric vehicles, while pushing other automakers and the oil industry out of business. Once that is accomplished, Tesla can start paying Elon and the rest of us phenomenal dividends from the resulting flood of profits.

 

[Sofie]

I was wondering what investors here thought of AAPL 4:1 split
I am a long term investor in both TSLA and AAPL and was wondering if my next move would be adding extra AAPL or TSLA to my portfolio

Yes that was my question/weekend contemplation too. But I bought Apple before earnings so I think I will just hold what I have long term and not sell it for more Tesla. I’ll just continue to buy Tesla as I go with my own money. But I will also continue to add more Apple on red days. I think, ultimately, it’s a good long term investment. It pays dividends and as others here have noted, it can be viewed as a value/growth stock in many ways.

 

[printf42]

Tesla just wanted a weird truck, Elon Musk

Musk told Automotive News the Cybertruck would not be sold globally.

....

Is this supposed to be the podcasts? Does anyone has a transcript of Elon actually saying that, or is it just Elon saying CT is designed to kick ass in NA, they then fantasized rest of world would be safe from it?

 

[ABCTG]

Sure, we agree that Tesla is not about losing money. But my point is that Tesla's mission is not profits. There's no reason to ever assume that given two choices, one of which is more profitable, that they'll obviously choose that one. They won't. So long as they aren't losing money, they'll make the choice that best advances the mission. The most important reason for me that I put most of my money is TSLA is that they aren't driven by profits -- profits are a by-product of something much more important to them (and to me, and to the world).

Elon even reiterated that on the latest conference call. There's a transcript here. Here's the relevant bit.

Toni Sacconaghi -- AllianceBernstein -- Analyst

Thank you. And if I could just follow up. Elon, you've talked a lot about the mission of the company and really trying to drive EV adoption globally. So how do you think about that trade-off between driving toward industry-leading profitability yet trying to make your cars more affordable and broader? It feels like, historically, you've always picked the path of I'd rather drive more growth and more adoption because, ultimately, that's the mission of the company.

And we even saw it a little bit this quarter with price reductions. You could have probably kept price where it is, sold some units and had better profits, but that's been an ongoing choice that Tesla, as a company, has made. So how do you personally think about that trade-off between -- even if you were to get to industry-leading margins, wouldn't you be inclined to give more of that back to drive a greater adoption more quickly?

Elon Musk -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Well, I think we actually achieved both when you factor in autonomy. I think we can go way beyond industry margins and have the car be affordable to more and more people and potentially almost everyone when you're factoring in autonomy, but that was really a mega game changer, giga game changer, yes. But I mean, it is important for people to distinguish between two things. There's value for money that our product has, and then there's affordability.

And even if you have real-life money and have value for money, like infinite, if people don't have enough -- if people do not have enough money in their bank account to buy the car, they simply cannot. So then you used to have this cycle or something that nobody can buy, so it is important to make the car affordable. And we will not succeed in our mission if we do not make cars affordable. Like the thing that bugs me the most about where we are right now is that our cars are not affordable enough.

We need to fix that. So we're all making progress in that regard, just sort of steadily gaining progress. So yes, we need to not go bankrupt. Obviously, that's important because that will fail in our mission, but we're not trying to be super profitable either.

Obviously, profitability is like 1% or something, this 1% or 2%. It's not crazy. Last quarter, it was only like 0.1%. So we want to be profitable.

Like I think just we want to be like slightly profitable and maximize growth and make the cars as affordable as possible, and that's what we're trying to achieve.

The next step that will need to be solved if Tesla does start selling affordable cars is providing charging for the people that buy those affordable Teslas.
Many of them live in large families in a single house, and many of them have no parking at their home. Many park overnight in the street.
If they have a short commute, then charging once a week may be enough,

The only realistic solution is to overbuild a massive charging infrastructure, so anyone can charge anywhere.