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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by AudubonB, Dec 28, 2018.

  1. Thekiwi

    Thekiwi Member

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    Yup - Max Pain is like a magnet - the further away the price is from it, the less pull it has.

    I don’t see any how there could possibly be any problem with demand for Q1 - Tesla will sell every unit it can ship to Europe and China in Q1, and there is still plenty of demand in North America for the 3.
     
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  2. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

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    Right, I clicked the link. So I was wondering if there was an article somewhere (maybe in the premium version) that the general public version of B only had the headline of. If not, there was no reason to have a link. I even tried Googling the title keywords to find recent news to no avail.

    So, it's moving due to this thing that we made a headline of with no supporting data?
     
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  3. KarenRei

    KarenRei ᴉǝɹuǝɹɐʞ

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    Anything is "possible". IMHO, $300 at any point in between the Q4 ER and the Q1 ER is quite unlikely. But not outside the realm of possibility.

    Personally, just like with Q3, I expect the stock's "baseline" to shift up, as a new wave of investors joins in (Tesla having proven itself capable of "sustaining a profit", not just "earning a profit for a single quarter"). I also see more potential for good macro-affecting news (conclusion of Brexit one way or another, conclusion of the US shutdown, a settlement to the US-China trade war, etc) than I see for negative macro-affecting news.
     
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  4. anthonyj

    anthonyj Active Member

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    All it takes is 500k shares in pre-market to gap it down to $300 and trigger retail panic selling/stop losses.

    I think it's stuck in the $250-$390 range until I sell. I did sell 45 shares today so hopefully that will move the price higher for next week. I might need to sell 250-500 shares at $380 and buy some puts to get us to ATH.
     
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  5. Oil4AsphaultOnly

    Oil4AsphaultOnly Active Member

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    Don't know about the others, but I definitely do think we'll be trading in a channel (hopefully a rising one). I expect that Elon will take whatever profits Tesla earns and plow it into bringing model Y, semi, and truck production up as quickly as possible (per secret master plan 2).

    With how Tesla accounts for their capEx and R&D spend, it'll keep the free cash flow low to the point that the shorts will grasp on the results as evidence that Tesla is not as profitable as everyone thinks - completely forgetting how H1 2018 was proof that the numbers only look bad if you don't know that the "losses" went into ramping up production.

    Dumb people just have too short of a memory to expect them to behave otherwise.
     
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  6. M3Rider

    M3Rider Member

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    #3226 M3Rider, Jan 11, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2019
    Yep. Let's not forget N.A. is only ~ 50% of demand, so the other 50% is sitting overseas waiting in reservations. Close to 100k reservations (although including MRs) was fulfilled so far in N.A. Considering some Q1 sales in N.A., there's no way 7k/week production won't be sold entirely in Q1. In Q2 they might have to release MR(to China/Europe) or maybe SR to keep the sales going. At that point, we'll have ~50% of the initial total reservations to fill not considering any new demand.
     
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  7. MXWing

    MXWing Well-Known Member

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    #3227 MXWing, Jan 11, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2019
    The trend is your friend... until it is not. :D

    300 is actually quite good if that’s perceived as worst case. It was 250 not all that long ago.

    The real reason why I see 300 is of two possibilities:

    1.) Macro cloud and investor confidence around that is real. Tesla is a luxury good.

    2.) The “analysts” can set the goal posts to anything they want. On a stock that is already trading at high multiples.

    EPS of .001 is a win for Tesla compared to the history as a whole. When Tesla devastatingly crushes the low of 0.77 some idiot says Tesla failed because they were $3 versus $4.

    I think this range bounding ends when Tesla is in the S&P500 and these idiots are forced to buy Tesla as part of their index funds.

    With that said, f**k no am I going to sell shares with the expectation that it just dips to 300 where I can rebuy.

    I have a set of shares I am willing to buy/sell, short calls against but the majority of my TSLA is core holdings which I will not touch.

    I’m not playing that game where I am buying back shares more expensive than I bough them for. Happened once when I had to buy at 280.

    I’ll hedge with dotm puts, long VIX or short QQQ but not touching my shares.
     
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  8. Etna

    Etna Member

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  9. avoigt

    avoigt Active Member

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    It may sound like a small one but its indeed a huge one.

    Founders should never be confused with CEOs. Elon does not want a title for good reasons.... because he does not need one. If he walks through the shop floor people will greed him and appreciate him. Have a look at the videos how workers approach him. He is human they can touch him and talk to him. He is the reason why they are there.

    A CEO is just a Manager and you can get one for money. Its cheap. You buy them on the market. They are for sale.

    A founder has a vision and is on a mission. You can't buy a mission and a vision. You don't get them on the market and they are never on sale but a rare species. They are priceless.

    You do not want to compete with a founder!

    [​IMG]Alp Soycengiz‏ @Alpsoy66
    Replying to @Real_John_D @EcoHeliGuy @Starlight_Energ
    It is indeed the case: @elonmusk is the longest serving CEO in the auto industry among major companies.

    Alp Soycengiz on Twitter
     
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  10. M3Rider

    M3Rider Member

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    Dang. "Boeing and Airbus are both working on electric planes."

    Elon said to Joe Rogan he had some designs. Wondering if they will be wasted by the time he's done dealing with the cars.
     
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  11. Curt Renz

    Curt Renz Active Member

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  12. Silent Ludicrosy

    Silent Ludicrosy Supporting Member

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    Does a bear short in the woods? Some bears short on the toilet.
     
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  13. MarcusMaximus

    MarcusMaximus Active Member

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    Depends: does the roadster count?
     
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  14. tivoboy

    tivoboy Active Member

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  15. ZeApelido

    ZeApelido Member

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    Just an observation: I worked for a prominent Chinese company in their main U.S. office. About 1,000 employees, mostly Chinese.

    Model 3's alone account for over 1% of the cars. This has happened just in the last 6 months. I imagine many/most of the new cars purchased in that time frame here were Tesla's.

    Chinese love Tesla.
     
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  16. AlexS

    AlexS Member

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    Well to be honest Elon is not the founder, founders are Eberhard and Tarpenning. Elon joined later, after test driving T-Zero and funding Series A round. But of course he have all the rights to be called founder because Tesla is where it is mostly because of him and JB.
     
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  17. 30seconds

    30seconds Active Member

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    Demand Ex-US for $40k car going to be much higher than 50%
     
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  18. Smokey4141

    Smokey4141 Banned

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    And Cathie Wood thinks the SP is STILL going to $4000, ~no matter what~....
    So there's a firm that's betting ~for~ Tesla, no??
    And nobody's telling people to write the SEC over "moving the expectations bar" on that one, are they?

    People think certain stocks are under-valued, or over-valued, every single day....
    I just don't understand why anybody thinks Tesla is special in that regard, either way...

    I'm sure you'd agree that analysts - pros and amateurs - are welcome to make their forecasts, are they not?
    You can believe them, or not, it's a free choice....

    So.....sorry, but I just think telling people to write the SEC because some folks have different estimates than others do....is just ridiculous...
    I think it's kinda nuts, to be honest.... And that was all I was saying...

    And for the record, I had a very ~low~ estimate in Troy's spreadsheet.... And clearly, I was wrong...
    I'm still kinda curious where all those extra cars actually ~are~, since they haven't been registered to legitimate buyers, but, as long as Tesla says they produced them, I'm sure it's all good.....
     
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  19. Smokey4141

    Smokey4141 Banned

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    Ummm, have you ever turned on CNBC?? You'll see talking heads doing exactly that..... Allll the friggin' time....

    That said...scorn? Yeah, I'm with you there....
    But I just think telling people to write the SEC because some folks have different estimates than others do....is just ridiculous...
    I think it's kinda nuts, to be honest.... And that was all I was saying...
     
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  20. Remus

    Remus Member

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