Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Carl Raymond]

It's a shame that Tesla has lost it's enormous momentum.

Tesla has not lost momentum. TSLA lost momentum.

Not one rivet in GF3 has been delayed by the stock slide. Model Y timeline is unaffected. S and X will soon be back to 100k per annum ceiling rate.

Sure, a few cars that might have been made and delivered this year were not. What matters is production capacity, and I see no evidence that the capacity build out has been affected.

Who would you rather be right now, Tesla, or BMW? It’s a no brainer. BMW are on death row.

 

[Dutchie]

Tesla has not lost momentum. TSLA lost momentum.

Not one rivet in GF3 has been delayed by the stock slide. Model Y timeline is unaffected. S and X will soon be back to 100k per annum ceiling rate.

Sure, a few cars that might have been made and delivered this year were not. What matters is production capacity, and I see no evidence that the capacity build out has been affected.

Who would you rather be right now, Tesla, or BWM? It’s a no brainer. BMW are on death row.

Indeed, nothing has changed last week except the stock price

 

[NicoV]

Didn’t they bypass that company (Elon traveling to Zeebrugge).

No. That company would temporarily do less prep work on the cars arriving at Zeebrugge, moving that task to the delivery centers. One of the things they do is charging the cars before transporting them further into Europe. From my own delivery experience, that’s one of the tasks they skipped at the end of last quarter as the delivery centers didn’t have enough charging capacity for that. Most people had to drive straight to a supercharger after taking delivery on 30/3.

 

[WarpedOne]

You have to look up the definition of the word ‘estimate’. Hint: it’s not the same as ‘promise’.

Maybe it is you who should look at the calendar.

 

[NicoV]

Brad Buss will leave the company after the next annual meeting. That was already communicated a month ago or so?

Aha. He probably has to exercise his options while he is still an employee. Which means he needs money to pay the taxes on the gains of those options.

 

[SwTslaGrl]

OT: Electrode Balancing of a Lithium-Ion Battery
Electrode Balancing of a Lithium-Ion Battery with COMSOL® | COMSOL Blog

 

[Tslynk67]

..what will come first ? new buyers or short covering?

Well, if they're using website like this to make decisions - and I reckon retail shorts do - then they won't be covering yet:

TSLA - TESLA

 

[dqd88]

I went last year and may, if my schedule allows, go this year.

If I were to have any opportunity there to communicate anything to Elon and the folks at Tesla, it will be this: “You are doing a fantastic job. You have my complete support as a shareholder and customer. Please don’t let the fools and scoundrels get you down."

How does one get to go to this? Can any shareholder go?

 

[Tslynk67]

How are you going to explain all these trading losses to your wives?

Losses occur when you sell below the price you bought. I have no losses, I'm even still up 10% or so at this moment, but even if I was in the red I'd be really stupid to sell given that all my shares were bought with cash.

My wife is rational about the SP and also believes in The Mission - she says "long term this won't make any difference". She also accepts that there's always a risk, even though I consider it very low indeed, to lose it all. Won't change our lives if that happens, it's money for a lush retirement, not for daily living, we both have good jobs.

 

[Carl Raymond]

good to hear tasha of ARK discuss tesla

I really like the idea of kicking off the Tesla network with human drivers (mentioned at around 24:00). At least 5% of the population would use it in preference to Uber - the same 5% who care about their carbon footprint. Tesla network would have guaranteed clientele on day one.

It solves the advertising problem by getting people inside the cars who might not otherwise experience electric drive.

It debugs and provides development cycles to enrich the app software.

Edit: It would be wrong to assume that the car owner and driver are the same person. The arg that people who can afford a Tesla are too busy and too wealthy to put their car on the network doesn’t hold - the driver can easily be somebody else, using cars where the owner is OS or far interstate for example.

 

[NicoV]

Maybe it is you who should look at the calendar.

I had/have the same delivery estimate as you, and we have our Model 3 for 6 weeks now. As a Model S owner, and with a reservation when doors in the Ghent store went open on the first day of registrations, I had expected to receive my car in february. But I didn’t. I don’t get mad at this. Tesla and it’s employees are doing their best to get the cars in the hands of customers as soon as possible, without going bankrupt first.
You’re in the unfortunate situation that there’s no service center nor store in Slovenia yet. Face it, you won’t get your car untill that first store and service center is operational. The mail and estimate you received is the same for everybody in the EU, Tesla didn’t make separate estimates for European subregions. You’re in the same situation as @KarenRei. Maybe in a slightly better situation, since it might be possible for you to take delivery in Austria if you and Tesla are willing to deal with the inconvenience.

 

[sixela]

. You have to be rational with stocks.

Actually, no. You have to guess correctly how irrational other people will be, which is worse by far (but then I'm an engineer). Although, of course, in a certain frame of mind that is exactly what "rational" is ;-).

 

[Artful Dodger]

My point being it won’t make sense to under utilize the full 6-7k capacity of these ships.

The rated capacity of those ships is expressed in RT units (based on the 4m length of the 1966 Toyota Corona).

The Model 3 is 4.69m so a nominal ship's capacity of 6,200 is closer to 5,000, and even fewer if the manifest includes the longer Models S and X.

 

[WarpedOne]

NicoV:

You’re in the unfortunate situation that there’s no service center nor store in Slovenia yet.

How is this relevant while I can order Model S in Model X in 'foreign' stores?
First new Model S was privately imported into Slovenia in 2013. Today we have some 60 registered Model S and Model X here that were bought new.
We are to small a market for a dedicated store, it will not happen.
That did not stop Tesla directly lying to us (and half of the rest of EU) - they merrily took the reservation money and "promised estimates" of delivery that had already passed twice, original given in '16 was mid 2018.
Now it is a year later and Elon is busy promising (yes, I will now use the word) next pie in the sky while still mightily failing at daily operation.
I refuse to continue to look at it as a missed estimation. It is too reoccurring a pattern to continue fooling myself.

Now it is clear why there was a raise few weeks back ... some of the big holders messaged Elon they've had enough of his BS and will take the losses and jump ship.
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand this will put another milling stone around the TSLA neck.
And no ... Tesla hadn't managed anything incredible. In this current environment Tesla could not achieve anything less, with a different leadership it would achieve much more.
There is always a time where your problems stop being other peoples doing, and start being your own fault.
Thing is, it is Elon who is destroying the demand and hence the company.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Indeed, nothing has changed last week except the stock price

Well, there was that tiny little acquisition of Maxwell Technologies...
Tesla Completes Acquisition of Maxwell Technologies | Tesla, Inc.

 

[CorneliusXX]

The question is do you still believe in the leadership.

I do not.

We get it. The rose coloured glasses have come off.

Is it Elon's fault for acting like Elon, or yours for ascribing traits to him that he never possessed.

Remember that noone is perfect. If you had different leadership there is no guarantee they would be better.

For all the negative points raised on this forum you have to remember what you would be giving up with a change in leadership. No other OEM had the courage to stick their neck on the line to build out a large scale EV program. Tesla is still the only company with access to anywhere near the number of batteries required for true mass production.

No other OEM was prepared or capable enough to install the sensors and design the chips and software required to have the best possible shot at autonomous vehicles.

Nearly all the other OEM leadership teams were either ignoring zero emissions vehicles or going down the hydrogen goose chase or just building silly little compliance cars.

Do you really want to give up a leader who has had an almost perfect strategy because of a few tactical misses?

 

[CorneliusXX]

Wow what a disaster.

You guys can blame shorts and media all you want, this comes down to lack of execution that the stock ever got this low to begin with. Almost no institution support at these prices is troubling.

Again nothing to back up your insto comments.

 

[Huskyf]

No demand for Europe and the World ???

 

[WarpedOne]

We get it. The rose coloured glasses have come off.
Is it Elon's fault for acting like Elon, or yours for ascribing traits to him that he never possessed.
Remember that noone is perfect. If you had different leadership there is no guarantee they would be better.
For all the negative points raised on this forum you have to remember what you would be giving up with a change in leadership. No other OEM had the courage to stick their neck on the line to build out a large scale EV program. Tesla is still the only company with access to anywhere near the number of batteries required for true mass production.
No other OEM was prepared or capable enough to install the sensors and design the chips and software required to have the best possible shot at autonomous vehicles.
Nearly all the other OEM leadership teams were either ignoring zero emissions vehicles or going down the hydrogen goose chase or just building silly little compliance cars.
Do you really want to give up a leader who has had an almost perfect strategy because of a few tactical misses?

All valid points (except me ascribing him traits he never possessed) but what has worked in the past may not work in the future and is not working in the present.
Until a few weeks back I was holding this flag of "you must accept the full Elon package, take it or leave it".
It was easier until I got hit on the head directly, a second time.
You may pretend I am a minority but I do not feel special, there is too many people that are getting hit the same and we will not forget nor forgive.
This is a (too much) demand problem getting solved by losing the potential customer who now hates you and is propagating his hate to other neutral ppl.

What hurts the most this should be easily avoidable by anyone with at least three brain cells.
Not so with Elon.

 

[NicoV]

How is this relevant while I can order Model S in Model X in 'foreign' stores?
First new Model S was privately imported into Slovenia in 2013. Today we have some 60 registered Model S and Model X here that were bought new.

Model 3 is a mass market product, S and X are luxury products. You need to be able to address your mass market customers in their own language.
Besides, have you called the nearest Austrian store and asked what they can do for you?

We are to small a market for a dedicated store, it will not happen.

See above. Model 3 customers should be able to address their issues with their cars in their own language. Hence the need for at least a local service center, and probably also a store.

That did not stop Tesla directly lying to us (and half of the rest of EU) - they merrily took the reservation money and "promised estimates" of delivery that had already passed twice, original given in '16 was mid 2018.

It is to be expected that a 3 year plan has some delays. Personally I find it exceptionally good that Tesla could deliver my car in early 2019. When I made my reservation the estimates were 2020 iirc.

Now it is a year later and Elon is busy promising (yes, I will now use the word) next pie in the sky while still mightily failing at daily operation.

I’m annoyed by Elons overly optimistic estimates too. But it doesn’t change the future prospects of Tesla. Even if Tesla needs money again, there are more than enough people and organisations willing to provide it because they will profit from it. And when they can’t find those people anymore, there are still more than enough people willing to provide money merely for the sake of protecting humanity’s future.

Saying that Elon is failing at daily operations is like saying that people ending a death march five minutes too late are failures. It lacks the appreciation of what they did achieve.