Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[amolina]

Impact of CEO Performance Award on Q3 2020
Linking to the financial projections thread to avoid cluttering this thread with accounting discussions.

Two main points I will make here:
1. Cap raise this month may have been designed to avoid Elon's tranche 4 from being achieved in Q3.
2. Deeming tranche 6 as probable may trigger the favoarble tax allowance reversal.

More details in the post

Near-future quarterly financial projections

Lot of TMC members disagreed when I floated this idea. Thanks @accountant for doing more research on this one.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Does anyone else see something missing from Biden’s “Buy American” speech?

 

[Tslynk67]

Lot of TMC members disagreed when I floated this idea. Thanks @accountant for doing more research on this one.


View attachment 587392

I have no opinion on the theory either way, but I would personally be disappointed if Tesla were to deliberately interfere with the stock price, so I don't personally subscribe to it.

I still don't really understand why a 1% raise started such a downward movement, it was peanuts in the grand scheme, and I think they were just taking advantage of the high price to get some easy money.

 

[Jack6591]

Tesla Is a ‘Buy’ Ahead of the Upcoming Battery Day, Says Oppenheimer

Battery Day draws nigh.

 

[UncaNed]

Indeed, I have a lot of empathy here.

When I first put some decent money into $TSLA (€60k in 2016), my wife and I had the hope that it would grow enough to buy a summerhouse in Denmark, so 3x, 4x would be enough. In fact for much of the last 4.5 years it hung around 1x-2x the original investment, even dropped into the red last June, but wifey and I always said "if we lose it all, it doesn't matter" - let's face it, €60k, or more like €100k with additional purchases, isn't life-changing money, plus we both have well-paid jobs.

Then, in the space of a year, not only has the core-shares account jumped to around 15x initial investment, but my stupid trading account went from $3500 to $1.2m, yes, I kid you not, 35,000% gains, 350x. Total portfolio value as of close 31st August, $2.7m, pre-market 1st September we were at $540, I said to the wife "if this holds we'll be above $3m".

This is now serious money. This is life-changing. This was enough money not to buy a summerhouse, but to buy a house in Brussels, and for me to consider retirement.

So then to see that drop, over 5 days, due to the a-holes at the S&P and the a-holes speculating the stock, was galling, it hurt. It hurt for a lot of us, I'm sure, not all. The pure HODL-ers, who likely have tens-of-millions, are fine, but as I have some short-term needs, it was a stomach-punch blow, regardless of how crazy the run-up was, and I spend most of last week feeling physically sick as a result.

It hurt lots.

Yes, I know we were probably over-valued, but still. And yes I know it will recover and go higher, probably.

But it still hurt, even after nearly 5 years of being in this game.

Did I sell, hell no!

Sounds like this must have been shorter expiration time options rather than safer LEAPS? Would later expiration dates have helped? I'm assuming it's not all in shares you could have waited it out so there wouldn't have been any serious damage as you implied.

Asking that others like myself might learn. Thank you for sharing.

 

[Christine69420]

An excavator is making a very interesting pattern on the south end of the Giga Texas field:

Thanks to Randy aka Terafactory Texas for filming this yesterday.

 

[KMCC]

Indeed, I have a lot of empathy here.

When I first put some decent money into $TSLA (€60k in 2016), my wife and I had the hope that it would grow enough to buy a summerhouse in Denmark, so 3x, 4x would be enough. In fact for much of the last 4.5 years it hung around 1x-2x the original investment, even dropped into the red last June, but wifey and I always said "if we lose it all, it doesn't matter" - let's face it, €60k, or more like €100k with additional purchases, isn't life-changing money, plus we both have well-paid jobs.

Then, in the space of a year, not only has the core-shares account jumped to around 15x initial investment, but my stupid trading account went from $3500 to $1.2m, yes, I kid you not, 35,000% gains, 350x. Total portfolio value as of close 31st August, $2.7m, pre-market 1st September we were at $540, I said to the wife "if this holds we'll be above $3m".

This is now serious money. This is life-changing. This was enough money not to buy a summerhouse, but to buy a house in Brussels, and for me to consider retirement.

So then to see that drop, over 5 days, due to the a-holes at the S&P and the a-holes speculating the stock, was galling, it hurt. It hurt for a lot of us, I'm sure, not all. The pure HODL-ers, who likely have tens-of-millions, are fine, but as I have some short-term needs, it was a stomach-punch blow, regardless of how crazy the run-up was, and I spend most of last week feeling physically sick as a result.

It hurt lots.

Yes, I know we were probably over-valued, but still. And yes I know it will recover and go higher, probably.

But it still hurt, even after nearly 5 years of being in this game.

Did I sell, hell no!

It hurt me too it didn't kill me but it hurt me I I have been invested in Tesla for years I watched it go down into the 200s and now I'm watching it go up.
I never expected it to go this high this fast but I always believed in Tesla.
I have never spoiled my children and when we went on vacations or went out to dinner I expected them to help out with part of the cost Earlier in the week I had announced to both my children and their spouses that they no longer had to pay for any vacations or any dining out etc.(with us) from now on we would pay for that then days later I was down 1⁄4 million dollars.
Nothing really changed but it was quite an overnight paper loss

 

[Tslynk67]

Anyone tends to trade around maxpain?
Maybe diagonals?

@Lycanthrope?

Hey, I've no idea what a "diagonal" is, but for sure I spent a lot of time earlier this year, when we had some weeks of sticky trading, selling puts and calls just above and below my best-guess of the weekly close. This isn't necessarily Max-Pain, I take into account my underlying knowledge of Tesla, which most casual options traders would miss, along with sentiment, potential catalysts that week, etc. Typically I was a few % higher or lower and normally the options I wrote would expire worthless.

This got too expensive once the stock moved above $1000 and I moved into LEAPS instead, but pre-split I bought 20 shares, which turned to 100 on 31st August and I immediately sold a 18/9 p510 for $2100 premium (cost basis of shares was $430). So I'm back to making these trades again, not least because I've realised around $430k this year in my trading account and will need to pay around $120k tax on that at the end of 2021/beginning 2022, so looking to build some cash now.

 

[Jack6591]

Does anyone else see something missing from Biden’s “Buy American” speech?

View attachment 587394

Showed this post to my wife; she explained: “Tesla is the only American car company that doesn’t need help.”

 

[jerry33]

SoCal is always packed. I would kill for 15% utilization when I travel from SD to the Bay area.

Yes. There are two problems with the SC network as it is now. In high population areas, there are not enough stalls. In low population areas, there are not enough locations. The low population area SCs are further challenged in that the loss of one location (As happened in Perry, OK a couple of weeks ago) makes a trip using that location inconvenient at best (an alternative charging location has to be found--this is usually either an RV park or a private PlugShare location).

 

[willow_hiller]

Flurry of tweets from Elon this morning about the AP rewrite. Now aiming for full deployment by the end of Q4. Should make for some FSD revenue recognition.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1304802133355556864?s=19

 

[Jack6591]

Climate change caused fires - California governor


"The debate is over, around climate change," Mr Newsom told reporters. "This is a climate damn emergency. This is real and it's happening."

Gavin Newsom

 

[Singuy]

Flurry of tweets from Elon this morning about the AP rewrite. Now aiming for full deployment by the end of Q4. Should make for some FSD revenue recognition.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1304802133355556864?s=19

Didn't they guide to realize almost all FSD revenue this year?

 

[EinSV]

Impact of CEO Performance Award on Q3 2020
Linking to the financial projections thread to avoid cluttering this thread with accounting discussions.

Two main points I will make here:
1. Cap raise this month may have been designed to avoid Elon's tranche 4 from being achieved in Q3.
2. Deeming tranche 6 as probable may trigger the favoarble tax allowance reversal.

More details in the post

Near-future quarterly financial projections

I greatly respect and appreciate your analysis of the financials but completely disagree with your speculation on the reason for Tesla's recent cap raise.

After the last cap raise was announced in February, the stock shot up 14% in three trading sessions, from $160.80 on Feb. 13 to $183.48 on Feb. 19 (post-split prices). Tesla is not omniscient about market reactions to cap raises, and based on the most recent raise there was no reason to believe the market would have reacted negatively to a cap raise. If anything, the opposite.

In fact, the most direct impact of a $5 billion cap raise on market cap is to add $5 billion to it by adding $5 billion cash to the balance sheet.

There are many reasons Tesla could have decided to raise money, including to strengthen its balance sheet to provide insurance against future black swan events (macro or Tesla-specific), fund even faster growth, improve credit ratings, reduce borrowing costs, etc. Trying to trigger a short term drop in the share price is not one of them IMO.

 

[Tslynk67]

Sounds like this must have been shorter expiration time options rather than safer LEAPS? Would later expiration dates have helped? I'm assuming it's not all in shares you could have waited it out so there wouldn't have been any serious damage as you implied.

Asking that others like myself might learn. Thank you for sharing.

My core account is 98% shares with one, sorry, 5 November 21st $300 calls. 25x October 2nd $800 covered calls (don't care if they expire or execute!!)

Trading account is June 2022 20x $250's and 15x $700's - I've no worry for these. 20x October 16th $360's, plus a sold $510 18th September put.

TBH, it's all good, the long calls and shares will be great, even the october and November calls will recover on the back of Battery Day, good P&D and earnings, but I do need money out in the near future and this, combined with the drop, was stressful.

 

[traxila]

If TSLA volatility 'ruins your day', you have sized your investment improperly. Otherwise, your comments are just what, to evoke sympathy? All us longs went through the same events last week, yet some of us enjoyed our weekend.

#WHINE'N'CHEEZE

Obviously an issue for the privileged global few who have owned TSLA for years, but it is understandable that someone who initiated a position in TSLA (just guessing. Those LEAPS from a couple of years ago sure did pay off) with tens of thousands of dollars might now have issues (mental ones. Happiness is all about framing in the end) dealing with seven figure swings in 24 hour periods. You are correct at this point that they have to come to grips with it either in their perspective or in their positions.

The fact that it does not faze you is testimony to probably a combination of your experience in the markets, a sizable portfolio and a levelheadedness as to the important things in life, not to mention a conviction in your beliefs for the future.

This all speaks well of you. I personally hold your contributions to this forum in high regard.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Obviously an issue for the privileged global few who have owned TSLA for years, but it is understandable that someone who initiated a position in TSLA (just guessing. Those LEAPS from a couple of years ago sure did pay off) with tens of thousands of dollars might now have issues (mental ones. Happiness is all about framing in the end) dealing with seven figure swings in 24 hour periods. You are correct at this point that they have to come to grips with it either in their perspective or in their positions.

The fact that it does not faze you is testimony to probably a combination of your experience in the markets, a sizable portfolio and a levelheadedness as to the important things in life, not to mention a conviction in your beliefs for the future.

This all speaks well of you. I personally hold your contributions to this forum in high regard.

Thanks, appreciate your comments. I started with ~3% of my net worth in TSLA back in 2018, At Friday's Close, that position has grown to just over half the market value of my house.

But I'm not selling (neither my TSLA or my house), nor am I moving any time soon. We have it good in Canada, and I like it here...

Back in the '80s, a friend joked "WOT? Live within my means? I can't even live within my CREDIT LIMIT!!" IMHO, steady growth in personal wealth is simply a matter of living slightly below your means, then investing the surplus. Oh, and make a spreadsheet. It really does help.

Cheers, and GLTA!

 

[The Accountant]

I greatly respect and appreciate your analysis of the financials but completely disagree with your speculation on the reason for Tesla's recent cap raise.

After the last cap raise was announced in February, the stock shot up 14% in three trading sessions, from $160.80 on Feb. 13 to $183.48 on Feb. 19 (post-split prices). Tesla is not omniscient about market reactions to cap raises, and based on the most recent raise there was no reason to believe the market would have reacted negatively to a cap raise. If anything, the opposite.

In fact, the most direct impact of a $5 billion cap raise on market cap is to add $5 billion to it by adding $5 billion cash to the balance sheet.

There are many reasons Tesla could have decided to raise money, including to strengthen its balance sheet to provide insurance against future black swan events (macro or Tesla-specific), fund even faster growth, improve credit ratings, reduce borrowing costs, etc. Trying to trigger a short term drop in the share price is not one of them IMO.

Fair points. People thought Elon's May tweet "stock price is too high" was an attempt to tame the stock price to avoid tranche 1 from being realized but its one thing to tweet an opinion vs actively taking action in the capital markets.

 

[tinyrodent]

https://twitter.com/richardreinariv/status/1304792195405352960

 

[Singuy]

Fair points. People thought Elon's May tweet "stock price is too high" was an attempt to tame the stock price to avoid tranche 1 from being realized but its one thing to tweet an opinion vs actively taking action in the capital markets.

And Tesla split the stock as it cooled after q2 report because????

Also a cap raise can totally have an opposite affect and bring stock to new heights. You just never know about Tesla.