Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Hock1]

The SEC reports of FTDs say that they provide only cumulative totals; you have to take differences to see the daily changes.

Doesn’t matter. There’s no way I would trust the numbers, considering who actually reported them.

 

[schonelucht]

According to my calculations (see elsewhere on this forum), unrestricted cash for Tesla stood at $1.1B right after the bond payment with several hunderds of millions of possible downsides. That would explain the fire sale and severe cost slashing we're witnessing. It's also lower than management possibly anticipated : the delivery ramp in Europe is going relatively slowly. Despite 4 vehicle carriers unloaded already, Model 3 registrations in Europe will likely not surpass 2000 in February. March will see a large inflow of cash as cars gets delivered. Still, I could see Elon describing this moment in time in a few years as 'Tesla passed within weeks of bankruptcy'. I have trimmed my holdings accordingly. Not an advice.

 

[KarenRei]

Model 3 registrations in Europe will likely not surpass 2000 in February.

So you think that nearly half of the registrations in Europe were in Norway alone (a location that required a second shipping stage to get vehicles there)? 906 Model 3 registrations there in February. Norway is probably <30%, I'd guess around 25%. I think your EU deliveries estimate is half of where it should be. And you're going with the InsideEVs US estimates, which are the low-end of estimates (AlphaHat, Edmunds), and I have no clue what you're doing for China.

Weird that you think that they're behind schedule in Europe, when they started delivering in mid February when customers were told that deliveries wouldn't begin until late February.

 

[schonelucht]

So you think that nearly half of the registrations in Europe were in Norway alone (a location that required a second shipping stage to get vehicles there)? 906 registrations there in February. Norway is probably <30%, I'd guess around 25%.

Just reviewed the numbers and it seems that the tracker estimates 0% of Model 3 deliveries in Belgium as Model 3, which is incorrect. That definitely made my guess wrong. But you are also wrong, Model 3 deliveries in Norway were 791. To recap here is where we stand

Norway : 791 (known) the Netherlands 472 (known) Belgium 150-200 (guess) Italy 80. UK 0 (known). Sweden 0 (known) Austria 100 (guess)

That leaves : Switzerland, I don't think deliveries started there yet. France I'd guess twice as many as in Belgium. Germany about as many as in the Netherlands, Spain about as many as in Italy.

Count it all up and I get to around 2500 ish. As explained above indeed a bit higher than I calculated due not be carefull enough analysing the raw numbers. 500 more or less Model 3's are not going to make or break the cash position which is the important thing to review.

Weird that you think that they're behind schedule in Europe, when they started delivering in mid February when customers were told that deliveries wouldn't begin until late February.

Good point. Still. Do the price changes and then the chaotic allocations of compensations sounds like a plan that they had carefully planned? Maybe the misplan wasn't in Europe, but in China? Configurator opened a lot earlier there and it's a full week quicker to ship there so I could see management counting on a deliveries there starting early February? Maybe the whole trade relation thing threw everything off there. Idk to be honest. But we aren't seeing something that was orderly planned and executed here.

Anyway, it's not so important. The question is, does the company behave as it is low on cash or not?

 

[KarenRei]

Good point. Still. Does the price changes and then the chaotic allocations of compensations sounds like a plan that they had carefully planned?

You think that they spontaneously started generating new models of vehicles with no prior planning? That you can spontaneously whip new packs, new interiors, a new order site, and new federal approval for the new models into existence?

 

[KarenRei]

Speaking of ships... Viking Adventure is on the move:
VIKING ADVENTURE Current position (Vehicles Carrier, IMO 9673018) - VesselFinder

En route to Europe. Glovis Countess will be docking at Pier 80 momentarily:
VIKING ADVENTURE Current position (Vehicles Carrier, IMO 9673018) - VesselFinder

 

[Navin]

You think that they spontaneously started generating new models of vehicles with no prior planning? That you can spontaneously whip new packs, new interiors, a new order site, and new federal approval for the new models into existence?

Karen, how do you reconcile that as of now the avail date for the SR M3 (35k) is still 2-4 weeks? How is that possible with the backlog of reservations and floodgates of others who can now afford to buy a M3??

 

[KarenRei]

Cool vids from the opening of the Dragon hatch and inspecting the inside here.

Chris B - NSF (@NASASpaceflight) | Twitter

When I saw them "saving" the Earth plush toy, I couldn't help but think of "Please Save My Earth"

 

[HG Wells]

Karen, how do you reconcile that as of now the avail date for the SR M3 (35k) is still 2-4 weeks? How is that possible with the backlog of reservations and floodgates of others who can now afford to buy a M3??

Someone needs to look at web page and see if its fixed text or what variables cause text to change. Might be its fixed text till monday.

 

[KarenRei]

Karen, how do you reconcile that as of now the avail date for the SR M3 (35k) is still 2-4 weeks? How is that possible with the backlog of reservations and floodgates of others who can now afford to buy a M3??

High production rate and their strategy from late last year of maintaining inventory of common configs.

No, I don't think there's some inexhaustible waiting list in the US (and hasn't been for some time, most of the orders they've been taking are new, and a lot of people who initially wanted SRs either upgraded to MR or got some other vehicle). I think people here often overestimate "waiting lists". At the same time, I also think people tend to underestimate new orders. They've been driving Tesla in the US for the latter quarter, possibly even the latter half, of last year. It's really hard for your average person to sit around waiting years for a car. But there's always more people coming onto the "I want a new car" potential-customer pool.

 

[Navin]

High production rate and their strategy from late last year of maintaining inventory of common configs.

No, I don't think there's some inexhaustible waiting list in the US (and hasn't been for some time, most of the orders they've been taking are new, and a lot of people who initially wanted SRs either upgraded to MR or got some other vehicle). I think people here often overestimate "waiting lists". At the same time, I also think people tend to underestimate new orders. They've been driving Tesla in the US for the latter quarter, possibly even the latter half, of last year.

Thanks. Are you still short term bearish?

 

[KarenRei]

Thanks. Are you still short term bearish?

I was only bearish for the weekend, and it was poorly timed (I was expecting a lot more to be publicly disclosed about the potential US-EU trade war, but it was all kept secret). I'd describe myself as comfortable with the company's position, but worried about how the market is going to react short-term.

 

[ReflexFunds]

According to my calculations (see elsewhere on this forum), unrestricted cash for Tesla stood at $1.1B right after the bond payment with several hunderds of millions of possible downsides. That would explain the fire sale and severe cost slashing we're witnessing. It's also lower than management possibly anticipated : the delivery ramp in Europe is going relatively slowly. Despite 4 vehicle carriers unloaded already, Model 3 registrations in Europe will likely not surpass 2000 in February. March will see a large inflow of cash as cars gets delivered. Still, I could see Elon describing this moment in time in a few years as 'Tesla passed within weeks of bankruptcy'. I have trimmed my holdings accordingly. Not an advice.

Your cash numbers are completely wrong. Accounts payable are paid back continuously, but while production is ongoing at the same level, this is offset by an equal amount of new payables generated. Your numbers are equivalent to Tesla repaying $3.4bn payables and then inexplicably choosing to pay all suppliers immediately rather than using their agreed 60-90 days payable terms. Payables balance actually may have increased, generating cash, because it looks like production rates have increased. Receivables will also not suddenly reduce to zero unless last 30-60 days revenue has dropped to zero. But receivables balance should have reduced significantly from year end levels (generating cash) because of the seasonality of volumes (potentially generating $500m or so cash). The most significant monthly cash balance variation is driven by inventory levels. At the peak, Tesla maybe has 20-40k higher Model 3s in inventory than at year end, and also maybe 5k or higher S/X in inventory, this could be at $1-1.5bn or so cash cost. But this can be partially paid with $230m availability on the inventory bank line. So i expect cash balance was around $2bn at its minimum after the convert payment, and from there cash will start rolling in rapidly.

 

[Matias]

Not sure about $70k but French prices look $10k lower to me (Model S). Can anyone confirm.

M3 - LR AWD and above only available in France - not sure about prices.

I really don’t understand the huge price drop on european Model S and X prices.

I bought 85D 2015, comparable model now costs almost 20% less.

 

[SebastianR]

Anyway, it's not so important. The question is, does the company behave as it is low on cash or not?

Fair question: So let's say I was Tesla and for some reason I had trouble with demand flowing in, just paid a billion USD and am worried about cash - what would I do?

I would stop production for 2 weeks ("sorry had, to be done to retool the line to get it ready for SR/SR+ and the new interior") and send the workers home / put supplier contract on hold. That gives me a moment to earn the money in Europe from all the cars in transit. I would of course stop all projects that cost cash, too.

What I would NOT do is: increase guidance for vehicle deliveries for the entire year, and starve my future order rate by killing my stores / points of sale. And I certainly wouldn't send more ships to Europe / China at this stage...

Do I think they have excess cash? Nope. But IMHO most of the stuff they do makes more sense to me from a profit perspective. They very much do behave like a company trying to break even (which is pretty much the guidance right now).

 

[JRP3]

I really don’t understand the huge price drop on european Model S and X prices.

I bought 85D 2015, comparable model now costs almost 20% less.

 

[Fobble]

In Elon we trust. So say we all!

This!! EM is a bit crazy sometimes, but I trust him doing the right things, and makes adjustments if necessary.

 

[Matias]

As a customer, I'm not complaining. As an investor, I don't understand.

 

[JRP3]

As a customer, I'm not complaining. As an investor, I don't understand.

The answer is the same for both, progress.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Right-hand side. All dollars are on the same scale.

BTW: AP now appears to be detecting stop lines at intersections in shadow mode:

And it's no-fun days over in Ford:

Anxiety builds among Ford employees. Hackett says that's fair, but he's confident

Wow, these are really cool!

Dan