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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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https://twitter.com/ReflexFunds/status/1329413708074913792
S&P's decision to give more advance warning for Tesla's addition may make the situation worse. Together with forced buying from index funds & incentivised buying from S&P benchmarked funds, we also have a month of normal stock churn while shareholders are disincentivised to sell.
 
Barron's - 1.5 hours ago: Tesla Stock Is Up 24% Since Friday and the S&P 500 Squeeze Isn’t Over Yet

Excerpt:

Tesla shares hit a new 52-week high Thursday as pressure to buy the stock ahead of its inclusion in the S&P 500 index ran into expectations for more gains that have left shareholders hesitant to sell.

The committee that oversees the S&P 500 index announced plans after the close of trading on Monday to add Tesla (ticker: TSLA) to the market benchmark on Dec. 21. The decision was unusual in a couple of ways.

For starters, Tesla is huge, worth roughly $470 billion, making its addition to the index one of the largest ever. It's so large, in fact, that the S&P committee is thinking about adding it twice. index funds that need to own the stock in order to match the S&P 500's performance would buy in two separate tranches to spread out the trading impact.

That hasn't been done before.

The decision to add Tesla was also disclosed a couple of weeks prior to the announcement of the index's regularly scheduled quarterly rebalancing. That give investors and traders a couple of extra weeks to think about the shift, and position themselves for it.

The end result has been a squeeze on Tesla shares that lifted the price past $500 to a new 52-week high of about $508. The stock is up about 24% so far this week, adding roughly $90 billion of market value.
 
I particularly enjoyed this quote from Barra, “We can accelerate our EV plans because we are rapidly building a competitive advantage in batteries, software, vehicle integration, manufacturing and customer experience.”

This is worrisome. It looks like GM is beating Tesla in everything except for acceleration and handling.

Oh wait, I think they have that covered under "customer experience"! :(

/s
 
So, S&P offers Tesla a cap raise in order to make addition more palatable. At what price?

Dunno. Got the feeling last time Musk was spurned. He gave them a golden opportunity to announce and do it over a week. And TSLA legit has absolutely no need for the money. They cannot spend the cash flow they have right now. Even more importantly the logistics involved in working on three gigafactories simultaneously while still ramping Fremont and Buffalo is ridiculous.

Think at this point it might make sense to only work on three gigafactories at a time.

Announce a new one late next year as Shanghai stabilizes and winds down building.

TL;DR We no need the money. For real.
 
Dunno. Got the feeling last time Musk was spurned. He gave them a golden opportunity to announce and do it over a week. And TSLA legit has absolutely no need for the money. They cannot spend the cash flow they have right now. Even more importantly the logistics involved in working on three gigafactories simultaneously while still ramping Fremont and Buffalo is ridiculous.

Think at this point it might make sense to only work on three gigafactories at a time.

Announce a new one late next year as Shanghai stabilizes and winds down building.

TL;DR We no need the money. For real.

I'm not sure that last raise was anything to do with S&P - normally the company being added is aware ahead of time it's about to happen, and Tesla wouldn't have initiated it until they got the nod.

No, I rather think it's as @Artful Dodger theorised, Tesla let it squeeze the shorts, and in particular the naked shorties, until it was clear there was no more juice to be had, then they put them out of their misery in order to regularise share-holders' positions post-split.

Tesla played the shorts like a virtuoso. Who were all exposed as major banks.

So that in mind, they could potentially demure to the S&P, but can play the same game and left it squeeze 2x first.
 
Tesla Model S no longer 'recommended' by Consumer Reports due to reliability concerns

Lora - you are loyal to your cause and deserve whatever consulting fees you are getting.
View attachment 609922

The problem with Consumer Reports...

If you are going to say, rank cars based on 1-100,

Tesla starts at 1000.

There is just no comparison.

Because when I shop for cars...

I just think:

Which Model should I get.

X? Y? S? 3?

There is no other "comparison shopping" beyond that calculation.

It would be like shopping for a phone...

And stopping to consider which Nokia flip phones are available.
 
https://twitter.com/ReflexFunds/status/1329413708074913792
S&P's decision to give more advance warning for Tesla's addition may make the situation worse. Together with forced buying from index funds & incentivised buying from S&P benchmarked funds, we also have a month of normal stock churn while shareholders are disincentivised to sell.
You know, it remains the case that the S&P committee can do whatever it wants. People keep talking about "forced buying" but the committee can simply say that they got feedback and decided to put off TSLA inclusion until the next rebalancing, and that maybe they'll spread it out over a year because it's causing such a ruckus. Poof! Forced buying evaporates.*

Anyway, there was unrelenting scorn for their behavior before, and then it all turned to love when they announced TSLA inclusion. Personally, I think they've always been Wall St. self-dealing financial scum and will continue to be so. Trusting them for anything is a sure path to getting screwed.

Be careful out there. Don't get blind-sided and then bleat "They can't do that!" I've seen no evidence that anybody here knows the true rules of the game. The only rule I know for sure is that the winners get to laugh at the losers.

*And yeah I don't actually know this can happen. But if you want to claim it's not possible, then point to the written policy and some further authority that the policy can't simply be waived.
 
You know, it remains the case that the S&P committee can do whatever it wants. People keep talking about "forced buying" but the committee can simply say that they got feedback and decided to put off TSLA inclusion until the next rebalancing, and that maybe they'll spread it out over a year because it's causing such a ruckus. Poof! Forced buying evaporates.*

Anyway, there was unrelenting scorn for their behavior before, and then it all turned to love when they announced TSLA inclusion. Personally, I think they've always been Wall St. self-dealing financial scum and will continue to be so. Trusting them for anything is a sure path to getting screwed.

Be careful out there. Don't get blind-sided and then bleat "They can't do that!" I've seen no evidence that anybody here knows the true rules of the game. The only rule I know for sure is that the winners get to laugh at the losers.

*And yeah I don't actually know this can happen. But if you want to claim it's not possible, then point to the written policy and some further authority that the policy can't simply be waived.
I agree with your call to caution, but not with your method of argument:

1) you state something to inspire fear without source
2) you request a source to be proven wrong

That's how religion works (eg "Hell exists and you'll go there if you don't follow our rules. Prove me wrong!") Let's not lower ourselves to that level.

But again, I fully agree with your point: be careful.

GLTA