Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lafrisbee]

Now he really tries to tell us something!!!

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1329930453575458819?s=21

what did it say? it is "unavailable."

 

[mblakele]

Although “Teslabillionaire” is about as elegant a word as a steamer trunk falling down the stairs, I rather think my immediate alternative of “Teslabaire” to be even more infelicitous.
Carry on.

Perhaps “giga-investor”?

 

[FS_FRA]

Obvious why Owners of Streetscooter, based in Germany, want Tesla to buy their company, which is a sign of their weakness. With Berlin GF and Design Ctr. now in play, they know all their top talent will be applying to Tesla. A company is only as good as their employees.

Please re-read the article!

A member of the Greens party sitting in the German Bundestag (which is essentially our House of Representatives equivalent) has allegedly written to Elon to ask him to buy the company. Riding the coat-tails of the current political attention on Elon and Tesla due to GigaBerlin, and nothing more.

"....Deutsche Post DHL, wants to sell the company - for irrelevant reasons."

Deutsche Post hast been trying to sell the company for years. They don't want to invest in Streetscooter anymore, since it's not part of their core-business.

This has nothing to do with the owners wanting to sell to Tesla. I'm sure they'll consider any reasonable offer put in front of them.

Anecdotaly - our local equivalent of Home Depot had their own Streetscooter which you could rent to transport outsized loads home. Tried it a couple of times. Cool solution - however a Tesla it was not.... obviously. Unfortunately they stopped the service this summer, since it appears Streetscooter stopped support / service.

 

[elasalle]

Have you guys seen this? Any thoughts? He seems to have his hands full already IMO.

Elon Musk Is Proposed To Take Over Streetscooter and Operate Under Tesla Leadership | Torque News

OK, so every1 knows Tesla has $14B, but do they really wanna waste it
Better spent on Machines that Build the Machine, AI , Battery, Material/Mining etc.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Please re-read the article!

A member of the Greens party sitting in the German Bundestag (which is essentially our House of Representatives equivalent) has allegedly written to Elon to ask him to buy the company. Riding the coat-tails of the current political attention on Elon and Tesla due to GigaBerlin, and nothing more.

"....Deutsche Post DHL, wants to sell the company - for irrelevant reasons."

Deutsche Post hast been trying to sell the company for years. They don't want to invest in Streetscooter anymore, since it's not part of their core-business.

This has nothing to do with the owners wanting to sell to Tesla. I'm sure they'll consider any reasonable offer put in front of them.

Anecdotaly - our local equivalent of Home Depot had their own Streetscooter which you could rent to transport outsized loads home. Tried it a couple of times. Cool solution - however a Tesla it was not.... obviously. Unfortunately they stopped the service this summer, since it appears Streetscooter stopped support / service.

Honestly, without knowing any details, at first glance this purchase would seem to like a good idea. Tesla wants to do vans for their own service vehicles anyway and this could be a nice side business too. Eventually, Gen 2 would transfer to a Tesla drivetrain, but until then they could just rebadge and continue to build these.

 

[ZsoZso]

The 93605 $20 puts expiring are funny as hell.

Don't mock it. That was the last "TSLA position" of our beloved infamous Mark B. Spiegel!

Now that it has expired, he will stop talking about TSLA on twitter... (hope springs eternal)

 

[MikeAtkinson]

Gigafactory Austin progress:

 

[juanmedina]

Wow, how did I miss that post back then? Amazing advice to avoid the biggest and most common options mistake, using logic to time leverage.

Wow that was an amazing post. I miss that one too. I really miss those two.

 

[MP3Mike]

Also worth noting that my broker doesn't allow early exercise of options either, so that essentially makes all my American options European options - I can still sell/rebuy them, of course, but can convert them to shares early.

Who is your broker? For example E*TRADE won't let you exercise them early yourself, but you can call and have one of their reps exercise them early for you at any time. (Though they may try to talk you out of it because there is more value in selling them, until you mention that the tax consequences negate that.)

 

[dgodfrey]

And to glom onto the always appreciated options strategy "not advice" from @Krugerrand, @StealthP3D, @adiggs, @ggr,@Lycanthrope and many others, here's my still wet behind the ears "not advice".

Real money decisions sink in further than make believe accounts as @Krugerrand stated.

Take what you might spend on a short term OTM call and pick up 100 shares of a cheap stock like Arcimoto (FUV). It's had a recent doubling but still affordable at $17/share. Write a CC contract. The worst that can happen is you make money selling it (called away) at a profit. I considered it cheap tuition to see how the time decay (theta) accelerates value. It's also important to understand the impact IV has on premiums. As others have mentioned "buy low, sell high", not in reference to the share price but using IV as the relative variable. When IV is low relative to a metric you determine, buy calls, when IV is high, sell covered calls.
​

Selling CC's doesn't necessarily put your shares at risk when exercising the "do over" power of Rolling.

Example: You wrote a CC contract after battery day that expired yesterday 11/20 with a strike of $450. By yesterday morning, it was assumed that they would be called away so your option is let them go leaving $5k on the table so to speak (but still a healthy profit), or buy them back for $5k which might require selling 10 shares, or what I do is roll to a higher strike price and later expiry.
This accomplishes two things:

• Keeps your 100 shares in play, kind of, which I'll get to later
• Puts a loss for the cost to :"buy them back" which effectively your doing, on your taxable earnings.
  • I can't self direct my Roth so all my profits are taxable so this is important for me
• This loss stays on the books until expiration so timing can be used to your advantage e.g.:
  • You roll yesterdays CC to a 3/19/20 $650 strike which if not an even trade might make you a few bucks.
  • That $5k loss will carry into the new year and not become a realized profit until expiration, assuming it expires worthless
  • So if you want to negate some gains, this will do that for 2020
• But eventually, you want these 100 shares back free and clear so how does that work?
  • Taking a bearish approach, you hope that the example above ends up with a share price of $649 at expiration(ignoring the Saturday auditing/AH that could effect the final SP)
  • If it does, success. But now you have a $5k gain but if you owe the taxman, you must have done something right.
  • If it goes to $700 at expiry, you roll again. Each time at a higher strike price. Eventually, TSLA will calm the 'F' down and your strike price will catch up to the share price. When that happens, you've got your 100 shares back at a much higher share price than they were yesterday.

As mentioned above, still a bit green myself so if some of the experts can chime in and admonish or confirm, greatly appreciated.
Also, this assumes they don't get called before expiry which I've heard, can happen but not seen it personally.
I take this approach (it's rarely needed however) because as I mentioned, my gains are taxable and if a CC gets called away, that puts me in not just a higher tax bracket but paying 32% on the short term gains is no picnic. I'm bullish on TSLA but see CC's as a great opportunity to generate some income. They aren't the lottery tickets that buying calls can be but even if you're wrong, you make money.​

 

[EinSV]

Selling CC's doesn't necessarily put your shares at risk

I'm not an options expert by any stretch but I think it's a mistake to think that way. If you sell covered calls there is always a risk that the share price escalates so rapidly that you will need to eventually let those shares go, although you might be able to put off the day or reckoning by rolling for a while. No such thing as a free lunch.

If you aren't prepared to accept some level of risk that your shares will get called away, don't sell covered calls.

 

[UncaNed]

I’m reading previous threads for investing advice. Here’s one from last year of particular note:
TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

I first read this post 2 years ago as a wide-eyed, pimply-faced youth (financially speaking), with hopes of anything better than CD rates of return, and though I still barely understand half of the details in that post -Dunning–Kruger effect be damned, I've actually done quite well, as have the others whom I've proselytized by sharing a sip of the TSLA-flavored cool-aide and shared what little I know.

Thank you for sharing, @ReddyLeaf, and especially thanks to @Fact Checking and @KarenRei gawd I miss those guys! And uncle Jack.

My FUD detection is good
Fundamentals is bunches of number jumbles
Is buying call options the same as "writing" options?

 

[MP3Mike]

Selling CC's doesn't necessarily put your shares at risk when exercising the "do over" power of Rolling.

Unless you get hit by someone like me that exercises the call early before you get a chance to roll it.

This loss stays on the books until expiration so timing can be used to your advantage e.g.:

• You roll yesterdays CC to a 3/19/20 $650 strike which if not an even trade might make you a few bucks.
• That $5k loss will carry into the new year and not become a realized profit until expiration, assuming it expires worthless

I'm pretty sure that a roll is just a buy to cover followed by a sell to open. So the $5k loss would be realized at that time. (It isn't "rolled" into your new CC.)

 

[scaesare]

I agree the flashing lights will work for FSD. Many of the school zones have only text on the sign that reads like "During the hours of ...... when school is in session" or smilar - i.e., no flashing lights. Some sort of text reading and interpretation would be needed.
Not arguing that it cannot be done. Am arguing that it must be done, especially since the non-existent PR department isn't around to explain away the headlines when a FSD Tesla has its first unfortunate encounter with a student in a school zone.

Making toast is simple. Just a little tweak to the battery management system.

And it will already have to have been done. There are a number of places where additional text on signs require logic to be applied to the situation:

- "Turn on red from right lane only"
- "No left turn from 4-6pm"
- "No parking M-F 8am-5pm"
- "Speed Limit 65MPH (Trucks/Trailers 55MPH)"
etc...

FSD will need be capable of of reading and understanding such signs in the context of days/times/activity in order to be successful anyway, so the school zone scenario isn't anything out of the ordinary...

 

[UncaNed]

Oh, wow. Learn something new everyday. Don't even have to wait for expiration. If premium goes to $70, resell the bought contract and get $2000 profit, less taxes. (I think). OMG. I know it's peanuts but still, that's at least net $1000 in the bank or 2 shares. I took that course but fell asleep on lesson #3. I'll try again! from #1. My bank has a 'Practice Investing Account' so maybe I'll play there also. Thanks!

I suggest a good basic options tutorial most brokers offer on their webpage to address the concerns expressed by @Lycanthrope :

To be blunt, if you weren't aware of this, you shouldn't be playing with options!*

 

[UncaNed]

Interesting. I love that they developed the streetscooter. Probably not sexy enough for Tesla, but maybe some teslanaire or teslabillionaire on this thread would consider helping out.

I thought "teslanaire" WAS a TSLA billionaire?

I'd love it if Tesla simply contributes a simple high efficiency drive train/battery pack to these delivery vehicles using 3rd party cells, perhaps, resulting in a superior worldwide utilitarian clean mail truck design. A great contribution to sustainable postal transport.

 

[oldTAVguy]

SpaceX launch in a few minutes:

 

[StealthP3D]

One year ago this thing was unveiled and I couldn't believe my eyes.

Crazy, eh?

I'm a little embarrassed about my initial TMC reaction to it as it was unveiled. I was pretty sure Musk was being a prankster and playing a mean trick on us. How could he jerk our emotions around like this? Shattering our dreams in an instant. Certainly, the "real" Cybertruck would be revealed shortly and we could all have a good laugh about it. Musk was grinning ear to ear like a father proud of his child. I was stunned, and not in a good way. It was like a bad dream and there was a sickening feeling in the pit of my stomach. This had to be a cheap stunt made from cardboard and silver paint. I expected the ropes above would shortly rip off that ugly silver carboard, or the cardboard will fall away to the floor, revealing the sleek beauty underneath. I waited in anticipation. My head was spinning as the realization settled in that this really was the "real" Cybertruck and there was no mock bodywork to take off. I posted my disbelief on TMC. This was the monstrosity that Musk was grinning ear to ear about!

Then, things began to change. Musk started describing the exoskeleton and the design started to make practical sense. He talked about how tough the material was and how it needed to be folded to fabricate an exoskeleton from such a hard material without breaking the production presses. I was just starting to understand how light and rigid this truck would be. He described the amazing accessories that were standard on every model. Then he mentioned the price.

I was quickly warming up to this thing, mostly because I finally understood the tough, no-nonsense body made of a material that was unparalleled in the automotive world. I've always appreciated vehicles that were uncommonly rigid and light and this took it to a new, incomparable level. This was a truck that would not only handle heavy loads without complaint, but it would also handle twisty roads like a sports car. It would handle parking lot grocery carts, over-grown trails and would knock alder saplings out of the way with no headlight lenses to shatter, no fragile paint to scratch. It was starting to look exceedingly durable, modern and beautiful. Incredible even. I had to have one and placed my order as the presentation was starting to wrap up. Yes, I had just made the biggest and quickest 180 of my life. I couldn't live without this thing. Now, I wanted it more than I did when I could only imagine how awesome it would be!

I've always believed that form follows function. People who think the Cybertruck is ugly don't understand what makes a good truck (or they don't understand how the Cybertruck is built). Tesla will sell everyone they can make to those who do. Because it's beautiful when one understands how it works. People who spend $80K on a sluggish, gas-guzzling, over-weight, top-of-the-line F-150 King Ranch or Dodge Ram Laramie Longhorn with a flexy frame and fragile body work and windows will become the laughing stock of the truck world. Those kind of trucks are effeminate next to the Cybertruck (and not in a good way). Trucks are not supposed to be effeminate. The buyers of those inferior trucks will dwindle until all that's left are old men with brains that have become rigid and fossilized from years of breathing carbon monoxide, eating cheap pork chops and gravy for breakfast and drinking cheap liquor, and bottom of the barrel coffee while they listen to Fox News and nod their faces. They do these things so they can afford their next fill-up, their next oil change, their next truck payment. Their trucks are the only thing that makes them a man. They will stick to "real" trucks that burn real fuel made from old dinosaurs. It will cost them more for this experience but that's who they are and they will be dead and gone soon enough.

 

[lafrisbee]

I asked "Alexa, what time is it?" this morning.
"8:42"
So at about 8:40 AM Saturday morning while laying in bed... I figured out a plausible, believable, and perhaps "the" whole understanding of the movement of TSLA from Tuesday opening till Friday closing.
Monday at 5:15 PM all hell broke loose. S&P 5000 inclusion announced. And lets not forget how crazy an inclusion it WILL be...
THIRTY-FIVE DAYS before inclusion the announcement was made... 3.5x as much time between announcement and inclusion from the longest such time period. if you think you know what is going to happen over the next month then not only do you not know, you don't even know you don't know.
let me go through the last five days... Monday night, BOOM, the announcement. And even my wife could have predicted the SP would jump in AH trading.
But Tuesday's SP movement? Here's where "The Group" steps in, and they never step out. The GROUP. They sold what they needed to keep the stock from creating a wave of FOMO buying. They succeeeded. That day they had a one day plan and it worked.
Also on that day The Group took the pulse, and they formulated a plan, and figured future Stock Prices, and how to move maxpain with the price they could control. They communicated inside , and outside The Group.
Don't get me wrong. The GROUP only needed a plan through MaxPain Friday. And getting it together, and then implementing it went perfectly. It wasn't something they wanted to have to deal with, but they worked hard and fast, and spent what they needed to get it done.
What they saw on Tuesday was not that much front-running buying going on this early in the "35 days before inclusion". (Which must be making them giddy because of what happened Wednesday and Thursday...and the proof of what I am thinking happened Friday.) Was this unprecedented 35 day lead in time calculated? Do the higher-ups understand the psychology of their 35 day lead-in? Right now it looks like the Inclusion Committee (Big Money) spent a whole buncha time to make the 35 day wait before inclusion a bigger money maker for the powerful in the S&P 500.
The Group knew they could not hold back the bump (completely), but they did control Tuesday by selling enough to keep the SP down. This got the national focus off of the SP. But go look. There was a huge amount of selling on Tuesday. Especially at the opening, by noon the fire was dying down. In the afternoon buying pressure was gone.
Wednesday and Thursday was the next part...And you might not believe what I am going to say.... The Group started buying. The Group knows what is coming. The more they can buy below $500 the more they can either make selling around inclusion, or the less they will have to pay for the stock if they are a benchmark fund.
Why haven't I mentioned the little guys buying on Wednesday and Thursday? Well because the small buyers are still chasing what is making money today. Like Nio. The market is hot in tiny places. And the traders aren't coming to play on a stock that is going to do something in 35 days when they can make more money to play the TSLA inclusion later.
Friday is my proof day. Proof that The GROUP is in complete control over everything except the direction the stock is going. It is similar to The Group being a group of dancers that has been told they must choreograph a Salsa. The Group can pick out the music or the type dance and decide the flow and the steps. But Salsa it is. And the retail investors aren't dancing, either they are loaded already and just tapping their toe to the beat while watching the dance, or they are off dancing in another club, and plan on coming back when the music changes before inclusion.
Back to Friday. Friday's coordinated lack of action can only be explained one way. There is no force to challenge The Group. Sure we saw some little bit of buying on Friday. But only half of what was there on Wednesday and Thursday. And even Tuesday was slow except for the initial excitement due to the announcement of inclusion in the first hour, which The Group absorbed, and then the day started to be a yawn fest. The buying interest was not there. Really? And then Wednesday and Thursday was double Friday?
Friday was dead because The Group had conditioned all those outside the group to not make a charge on the stock by buying up the stock price already. The Group brought the stock up to that SP because they knew it would cause the metrics to look bad, and thereby cause buyers to go in another direction.
FRIDAY WAS DEAD. Really? Why? How? No news but good news about TSLA. The stock market didn't tank... TSLA did. The Group Danced Flawless. They're the ringer on DWTS.
Just look at Daily Volume...
Monday a low volume normal day. The first day after the announcement it had to pop. But then Wednesday and Thursday both double the volume of Friday. Where did the "buyers" go? Friday was choreographed, The WHOLE week was choreographed by the real money in the stock market. There was absolutely no explanation except The Group had a good plan and keeping their eyes on the prize (making money) over the long haul of the next month.
The Group virtually chose the music, when it would start, when it would stop, and even the volume in both price and number of shares traded (the choreography).
I am very interested in learning more about how The Group chooses to dance through post-Inclusion. And how will those on the outside of the group influence The Group's. Will the Group ever lose control, and not make money at every step of the way? They didn't lose money this week...not in the long run. They bought a bunch of the stock sold on Wednesday and Thursday that will make them money within the month.
Certainly I can't be right about it all, but Friday's volume is proof that THE GROUP played this past week perfectly.

 

[dgodfrey]

Unless you get hit by someone like me that exercises the call early before you get a chance to roll it.



I'm pretty sure that a roll is just a buy to cover followed by a sell to open. So the $5k loss would be realized at that time. (It isn't "rolled" into your new CC.)

Yes, I agree it’s purely a buying and selling transaction but the loss doesn’t become a gain until it expires. That was kind of my point, the loss hits immediately as you mentioned but the gain is postponed until it eventually expires worthless. I just went through this where a $4000 loss at the point of rolling didn’t become a gain until it expired.