Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

Looks like ev stock apocalypse this am. Average of -10% for Xpeng, li, and nio premarket.

 

[dgodfrey]

I wasn't saying not to "lever up" with options - I was trying to point out the fallacy of using the excuse that it's one of the only ways to "generate cash". That is a mental mind twist that has no place in investing.

I think that's what you meant. Otherwise, comes across as an oxymoron to me.

 

[jw934]

The exchange rate has been steady and even trending upwards a bit, so that is not the reason for the price hike. And it's also contrary to the fact that this is a MIC car, which presumably costs less to build. Conclusion: demand in Q4 must be off the charts.

One thought is that the M3 price rise may be to give other EV OEMs some breathing room so they can sell (or plan to sell) more of their cars.

 

[Tslynk67]

I rated this as "funny" - but its rather sad to think about.

I think we could make a list of individuals who wouldn't be missed by us, other than for comedic value, of course.

 

[Unpilot]

Somebody decided to burn a lot of cash this morning.

 

[Tslynk67]

Second price increase in a month period for the Belgium Model 3 SR+ ....
Was at 48800€ November, 25 days ago increase to 49490€ and now 50490€. Currency adjustment?
View attachment 611709

Probably, the $$ is very weak for the moment - have been watching it as I needed to convert some of my portfolio cash to € for this bloody house*. Was hoping it would strengthen with the stabilising political situation in the US, but doesn't appear to have impacted at all.

*don't like to talk about it here, but thanks to the recent run, I now have enough value in my personal portfolio to pay for that bloody house and all the renovations. Of course that's not the plan, I still take the mortgage and look to pay that off with future profits, not share sales. But it sure has de-stressed the situation.

 

[oldTAVguy]

CNBS lead TSLA video this AM has David Trainer saying that TSLA is only worth $50 per share.

Shows that CNBS is the greatest source ever for financial analysis. /s

FYI:
David Trainer
Seeking Alpha
Financial Blogger
Ranked #6,245 out of 7,739 Bloggers on TipRanks (#12,084 out of 14,851 overall experts)
Average Return -0.9% Average return per rating

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

I think we might see a significant push down today. We went from up 2% to now down 2.5%.

 

[Singuy]

I think we might see a significant push down today. We went from up 2% to now down 2.5%.

Think people are taking profits from the crazy ev run up before the holidays. Of course Li, Xpeng or Nio getting hit the hardest because their run up was based on nothing.

 

[chrsk]

Second price increase in a month period for the Belgium Model 3 SR+ ....
Was at 48800€ November, 25 days ago increase to 49490€ and now 50490€. Currency adjustment?
View attachment 611709

The price for X and S was increased in Norway overnight. 5630$.

Strange, as the dollar has weakened quite a bit over the past months.

 

[StealthP3D]

I think the buying pressure will significantly outpace any selling from retail and other big funds. Just based on the volumes we are seeing I think the supply is just not there to fully satisfy the 125 million shares that need to be bought by index funds and addition shares needed by benchmark funds.

It's important to remember that volume can change in a flash.

I also think from a short term gains perspective retail investors will likely not want to sell. Of course this is assuming a lot of them got into TSLA this year.

This is ignoring my observation that all TSLA shares are held by humans and humans .have emotions. When they get scared they behave rather predictably.

 

[StealthP3D]

Something I've wondered, don't the S&P500 Indexers lend out shares to shorts? I could see it as a way to get income when fees must be kept low to be competitive. Genuinely don't know, and I'd prefer if indexed shares are locked away.

I know Schwab does, I bet they all do. Unless one of them is run by someone like Hiro Mizuno (which seems incongruous).

 

[engle]

Like what, the S&P announcement "Well, we've had a look at it and have decided to change our minds..."

[edited: @Knightshade re: Index Funds buying window]

On 11/30 (I think we will see their press release after the market closes), S&P Indices will announce what percentage of $TSLA their clients, the wonderful "must buy at any price and hold" passive S&P 500 index funds shall have to buy close to but before market open on 12/14 and 12/21/2020. S&P will also summarize the feedback they received from the investment community to their survey. The purpose of the survey was to CYA the secretive S&P index committee.

The possibilities are S&P 500 indexers *must* buy 3-7 days before or after inclusion date per @Knightshade either:

1. 100% $TSLA % allocation prior to market open on 12/21/2020; (my strong preference LMAOOO [Out-to-Orbit])
2. buy 50% before 12/14 and 50% before 12/21; (most likely announcement to mitigate the pain)
3. buy 33% before 12/14 and 67% before 12/21; or
4. buy 25% before 12/14 and 75% before 12/21.

Note that index fund managers are paid to track the S&P 500 index as close as algorithmically possible. If they buy 7 days before or after, they won't be tracking S&P as well due to $TSLA's high volatility. $TSLA will be "in" the index when the market opens on 12/21. As part of the required buy-in, it may (I think will) be partly "in" the index when market opens on 12/14. I expect the press release will also reveal which unlucky equity is being dumped out of S&P 500 either down into their mid-cap index or into the ether if it is being acquired.

My sincere hope is that most retail investors do not succumb to the temptation to sell any $TSLA to these "buy at any price" passive index funds. The time to sell some $TSLA hoping to buy it back later at a lower price would be near the close on 12/20, or on 12/21 or 12/22 depending upon price action those days - NOT investment advice! I expect all these hedge funds that have loaded-up will be selling to the indexers.

I also hope Elon is able to time the general release of FSD Beta before 12/21/2011 to add gasoline to the share price fire. He's now #2 behind Jeff and they do not get along. I'm sure Elon has Jeff in his sights. Elon has timed his tweets and product announcements very effectively over the years to juice the stock IMHO.

Another factor here is the higher $TSLA goes prior to 12/14 and 12/21, the higher its S&P "re-balancing" percentage shall be, meaning the forced indexer buyers will have to buy even more shares!

Finally, even though they don't need the funds right now, it would not surprise me in the least if CFO Zach Kirkhorn engineers another cap raise just after 12/21 to take advantage of the run-up in the share price. It would enable $TSLA to expand the tentacles of their green octopus even faster without taking on any more debt. (*)

Happy Thanksgiving to those of you in the US and stay safe everyone!

Russ

(*) Zachary John Planell Kirkhorn's education is impressive: U. Penn Econ, MechEng, and AppliedMech followed by a Harvard M.B.A. He was just 35 when promoted to CFO, having started as a Senior Finance Analyst in 2010. I'm very happy to see Elon supported sexual diversity when he chose Zach for this critical C-level role.

PS. I was temporarily "banned" from *all* of TMC (instead of just this forum). Since then, I've primarily been tweeting my thoughts (@RussEngle) and replying to Gary Black's fine tweets. I highly recommend following Gary (@Garyblack00) if you don't already. He's a retired Wall Street CIO (Goldman) & CEO (Janus) who follows $TSLA closely and now has 20K+ followers.

PPS. I've also started posting in the TMC Roadster II group since my confidence level is 99% (unless there's another Black Swan event) that SP >= $600 in late 2021 or 2022.

Gotta love this chart! We are all so fortunate to have discovered $TSLA whenever we did: Look at those daily volumes!

we are up 34% since the S&P announcement and the best may be yet to come!!

 

[H Mak]

Probably, the $$ is very weak for the moment - have been watching it as I needed to convert some of my portfolio cash to € for this bloody house*. Was hoping it would strengthen with the stabilising political situation in the US, but doesn't appear to have impacted at all.

*don't like to talk about it here, but thanks to the recent run, I now have enough value in my personal portfolio to pay for that bloody house and all the renovations. Of course that's not the plan, I still take the mortgage and look to pay that off with future profits, not share sales. But it sure has de-stressed the situation.

Housewarming party for your TMC chums?

 

[StealthP3D]

There's an idea - why don't the manips just sell naked short shares to the indexes, then Tesla could invoke their joker-split card and we can infinity squeeze the banks/hedge-funds, the S&P will get bigly %age gain and we can start squabbling about which planet to buy...

I think stranger things have happened. This could justify the term "short-squeeze of the Millenium"!

 

[dgodfrey]

The exchange rate has been steady and even trending upwards a bit, so that is not the reason for the price hike. And it's also contrary to the fact that this is a MIC car, which presumably costs less to build. Conclusion: demand in Q4 must be off the charts.

But that makes no sense either. When they drop the price we bulls push back on the no demand FUD with the mission statement and then when the price climbs we defend the demand argument. We tend to be hypocrites at times. Pot meet kettle.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Think people are taking profits from the crazy ev run up before the holidays. Of course Li, Xpeng or Nio getting hit the hardest because their run up was based on nothing.

More shaking of trees to see who panics and sells. Up and down, round and round.

 

[vikings123]

On 11/30 (I think we will see their press release after the market closes), S&P Indices will announce what percentage of $TSLA their clients, the wonderful "must buy at any price and hold" passive S&P 500 index funds shall have to buy close to but before market open on 12/14 and 12/21/2020. S&P will also summarize the feedback they received from the investment community to their survey. The purpose of the survey was to CYA the secretive S&P index committee.

The possibilities are S&P 500 indexers must either:

1. buy 100% $TSLA prior to market open on 12/21/2020; (my strong preference LMAOOO [Out-to-Orbit])
2. buy 50% before 12/14 and 50% before 12/21; (most likely announcement to mitigate the pain)
3. buy 33% before 12/14 and 67% before 12/21; or
4. buy 25% before 12/14 and 75% before 12/21.

Note that index fund managers are paid to track the S&P 500 index as close as algorithmically possible. $TSLA will be "in" the index when the market opens on 12/21. As part of the required buy-in, it may (I think will) be partly "in" the index when market opens on 12/14. I expect the press release will also reveal which unlucky equity is being dumped out of S&P 500 either down into their mid-cap index or into the ether if it is being acquired.

My sincere hope is that most retail investors do not succumb to the temptation to sell any $TSLA to these "buy at any price" passive index funds. The time to sell some $TSLA hoping to buy it back later at a lower price would be near the close on 12/20, or on 12/21 or 12/22 depending upon price action those days - NOT investment advice! I expect all these hedge funds that have loaded-up will be selling to the indexers.

I also hope Elon is able to time the general release of FSD Beta before 12/21/2011 to add gasoline to the share price fire. He's now #2 behind Jeff and they do not get along. I'm sure Elon has Jeff in his sights. Elon has timed his tweets and product announcements very effectively over the years to juice the stock IMHO.

Another factor here is the higher $TSLA goes prior to 12/14 and 12/21, the higher its S&P "re-balancing" percentage shall be, meaning the forced indexer buyers will have to buy even more shares!

Happy Thanksgiving to those of you in the US and stay safe everyone!

Russ

PS. I was temporarily "banned" from *all* of TMC (instead of just this forum). Since then, I've primarily been tweeting my thoughts (@RussEngle) and replying to Gary Black's fine tweets. I highly recommend following Gary (@Garyblack00) if you don't already. He's a retired Wall Street CIO (Goldman) & CEO (Janus) who follows $TSLA closely and now has 20K+ followers.

PPS. I've also started posting in the TMC Roadster II group since my confidence level is 99% (unless there's another Black Swan event) that SP >= $600 in late 2021 or 2022.

Agree with most of it except the bolded. The number of shares to be bought remains the same, what changes is the price they are paying for each share.

 

[Tslynk67]

On 11/30 (I think we will see their press release after the market closes), S&P Indices will announce what percentage of $TSLA their clients, the wonderful "must buy at any price and hold" passive S&P 500 index funds shall have to buy close to but before market open on 12/14 and 12/21/2020. S&P will also summarize the feedback they received from the investment community to their survey. The purpose of the survey was to CYA the secretive S&P index committee.

The possibilities are S&P 500 indexers must either:

1. buy 100% $TSLA prior to market open on 12/21/2020; (my strong preference LMAOOO [Out-to-Orbit])
2. buy 50% before 12/14 and 50% before 12/21; (most likely announcement to mitigate the pain)
3. buy 33% before 12/14 and 67% before 12/21; or
4. buy 25% before 12/14 and 75% before 12/21.

Note that index fund managers are paid to track the S&P 500 index as close as algorithmically possible. $TSLA will be "in" the index when the market opens on 12/21. As part of the required buy-in, it may (I think will) be partly "in" the index when market opens on 12/14. I expect the press release will also reveal which unlucky equity is being dumped out of S&P 500 either down into their mid-cap index or into the ether if it is being acquired.

My sincere hope is that most retail investors do not succumb to the temptation to sell any $TSLA to these "buy at any price" passive index funds. The time to sell some $TSLA hoping to buy it back later at a lower price would be near the close on 12/20, or on 12/21 or 12/22 depending upon price action those days - NOT investment advice! I expect all these hedge funds that have loaded-up will be selling to the indexers.

I also hope Elon is able to time the general release of FSD Beta before 12/21/2011 to add gasoline to the share price fire. He's now #2 behind Jeff and they do not get along. I'm sure Elon has Jeff in his sights. Elon has timed his tweets and product announcements very effectively over the years to juice the stock IMHO.

Another factor here is the higher $TSLA goes prior to 12/14 and 12/21, the higher its S&P "re-balancing" percentage shall be, meaning the forced indexer buyers will have to buy even more shares!

Happy Thanksgiving to those of you in the US and stay safe everyone!

Russ

PS. I was temporarily "banned" from *all* of TMC (instead of just this forum) because I posted about Elon's infection without being aware that was considered verboten. Since then, I've primarily been tweeting my thoughts (@RussEngle) and replying to Gary Black's fine tweets. I highly recommend following Gary (@Garyblack00) if you don't already. He's a retired Wall Street CIO (Goldman) & CEO (Janus) who follows $TSLA closely and now has 20K+ followers.

PPS. I've also started posting in the TMC Roadster II group since my confidence level is 99% (unless there's another Black Swan event) that SP >= $600 in late 2021 or 2022.

R2, you say? I took delivery of mine this morning! And no panel gaps!

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

Did I hear that TSLA chairs are on sale today?

Edit: Price was pre-market $546 when i posted this.