Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

On 11/30 (I think we will see their press release after the market closes), S&P Indices will announce what percentage of $TSLA their clients, the wonderful "must buy at any price and hold" passive S&P 500 index funds shall have to buy close to but before market open on 12/14 and 12/21/2020. S&P will also summarize the feedback they received from the investment community to their survey. The purpose of the survey was to CYA the secretive S&P index committee.

The possibilities are S&P 500 indexers must either:

1. buy 100% $TSLA prior to market open on 12/21/2020; (my strong preference LMAOOO [Out-to-Orbit])
2. buy 50% before 12/14 and 50% before 12/21; (most likely announcement to mitigate the pain)
3. buy 33% before 12/14 and 67% before 12/21; or
4. buy 25% before 12/14 and 75% before 12/21.

Note that index fund managers are paid to track the S&P 500 index as close as algorithmically possible. $TSLA will be "in" the index when the market opens on 12/21.

I don't think we can completely discount the small possibility that the S&P might decide that, due to overwhelming feedback from the investor community, they will be adding TSLA in two equal tranches, 50% on December 21, 2020 and 50% X months later.

As an investor, I do try to limit my exposure to the unexpected. I'm just having a hard time imagining that the S&P is going to make the index funds buy TSLA in the middle of a squeeze. While it's possible, it doesn't seem to fit neatly into my worldview.

 

[Knightshade]

The possibilities are S&P 500 indexers must either:

1. buy 100% $TSLA prior to market open on 12/21/2020; (my strong preference LMAOOO [Out-to-Orbit])
2. buy 50% before 12/14 and 50% before 12/21; (most likely announcement to mitigate the pain)
3. buy 33% before 12/14 and 67% before 12/21; or
4. buy 25% before 12/14 and 75% before 12/21.

Quick clarification here- Funds are not generally required to buy ON the inclusion date- it varies from fund to fund but most have some window of days before and after to buy the required # of shares relative to the inclusion date (3-7 days on both sides seems common)

 

[lafrisbee]

HODL. HODL...Hodl!!!!

 

[Lessmog]

@StealthP3D has talked at length about why *we* don’t do this - main point being, you will kick yourself if it doesn’t come back down and just keeps rising, and/or you don’t time the buy back correctly like the dozens and dozens of people in this thread who’ve missed the buy back.

If you need the money soon, knock yourself out. If you don’t, play dead.

Sorry for the late response (geddit?) but plz explain financial difference between unconsciousness and fake death?

 

[FrankSG]

I don't think we can completely discount the small possibility that the S&P might decide that, due to overwhelming feedback from the investor community, we will be adding TSLA in two equal tranches, 50% on December 21, 2020 and 50% X months later.

As an investor, I do try to limit my exposure to the unexpected. I'm just having a hard time imagining that the S&P is going to make the index funds buy TSLA in the middle of a squeeze. While it's possible, it doesn't seem to fit neatly into my worldview.

They want to get this over with before Christmas imo. They definitely can't have the inclusion happen between 21st and New Year's. Imo it's most likely happening by the 21st.

 

[StealthP3D]

R2, you say? I took delivery of mine this morning! And no panel gaps!

View attachment 611730

Congrats! But you might want to get out the stereo microscope with size scale. I suspect some of those panel gaps are more inconsistent than the actual full-sized models.

 

[Navin]

Inside CNBC:
No Lora - we aren’t going to fire up the red banner over some paint thinner. Just write one of your usual articles and we will post on social media and get some retweets from our bullpen.

 

[lafrisbee]

In the first 10 seconds of the morning trading I saw the volume go to 3.2 million and then back down to somewhere in the 2 million range?
What the ell happened?

 

[Todd Burch]

Oh my God. TSLA is down 0.12%.

 

[Big Time]

Tesla straight up, macros straight down!

Edit: damn it!

 

[lafrisbee]

Tesla straight up, macros straight down!

and straight down....
Tesla will be The Vomit Comet for awhile.... unless.

 

[StealthP3D]

They want to get this over with before Christmas imo. They definitely can't have the inclusion happen between 21st and New Year's. Imo it's most likely happening by the 21st.

I agree the most likely scenario is they stick with inclusion within their original guidance. But what is your rational that Christmas is some kind of wall? Personally, I think their desire for consistency with their original guidance would be the primary guiding force, not some arbitrary Christmas wall. The desire to remain consistent with their original guidance is why I think this is only slim possibility (even if worth considering before placing leveraged bets on narrow timeframes).

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Everyone! I ran here as fast as I could! Is everyone ok? I read on the front page of the CNBC that there's a terrible Model Y recall happening.

 

[Christine69420]

I don't think we can completely discount the small possibility that the S&P might decide that, due to overwhelming feedback from the investor community, they will be adding TSLA in two equal tranches, 50% on December 21, 2020 and 50% X months later.

As an investor, I do try to limit my exposure to the unexpected. I'm just having a hard time imagining that the S&P is going to make the index funds buy TSLA in the middle of a squeeze. While it's possible, it doesn't seem to fit neatly into my worldview.

So a second squeeze in April or something? I guess I'm OK with that option too.

 

[Nocturnal]

Waymo sends staff 'urgent' Covid safety procedures, employees could be fired if violated
Alphabet’s self-driving car company Waymo said it will require drivers and support staff to adhere to updated Covid-19 safety protocols or risk potential disciplinary actions including termination.

But I don't understand, I thought Waymo was running around everywhere with driverless cars and was "orders of magnitude" ahead of Tesla???

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Housewarming party for your TMC chums?

I would think that’s a good idea. Hope he knows some of us are coming all the way from Canada and that we’ll want real beer.

just sayin.

 

[Pezpunk]

oh no! there go 0.74% of my 1187% gains

 

[oldTAVguy]

CNBS lead TSLA video this AM has David Trainer saying that TSLA is only worth $50 per share.

Shows that CNBS is the greatest source ever for financial analysis. /s

FYI:
David Trainer
Seeking Alpha
Financial Blogger
Ranked #6,245 out of 7,739 Bloggers on TipRanks (#12,084 out of 14,851 overall experts)
Average Return -0.9% Average return per rating

Don't forget to look at the spanking in August this year...

TSLA Bull/Bear Debate: Rob Maurer of Tesla Daily & David Trainer of New Constructs

 

[StealthP3D]

So a second squeeze in April or something? I guess I'm OK with that option too.

Yeah, as a long-term investor the exact method of inclusion is not that important to me. But I do think an extended inclusion would likely allow the funds to buy in at lower prices. Anything that could take the pressure off TSLA shares and spread the demand over time could provide an advantage to the funds. The S&P wants their index to perform well and the lower the inclusion price the higher the better the index will perform.

I am simply not that bullish on the funds having to overpay for TSLA. One way or another, I think they will get in at an average price less than $525. But I hope I'm proven wrong. Part of me hopes I'm proven right because lots of mom and pops hold SP500 Index funds.

 

[JusRelax]

Hmmm... that's weird. Fidelity is having this weird glitch in my portfolio today where all the numbers are red instead of green. It looks so abnormal.