Didn't he say the opposite? Iirc, he said that it was broken up into tiny orders, as to not give away the magnitude of the buying Emmet wanted to do, and that was only $2.7M.
Ask @Blue horseshoe .
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Didn't he say the opposite? Iirc, he said that it was broken up into tiny orders, as to not give away the magnitude of the buying Emmet wanted to do, and that was only $2.7M.
Ask @Blue horseshoe .
Mr
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
This reminds me of how Pierpoint Morgan (J.P.) was the guy who, after Nikola Tesla (the person) told him he had found a way to generate and transmit free energy to any point on Earth, asked Tesla, "but, where would I put the meter" before pulling funding from the experiment.
The IBKR representative suggested he purchase all calls using a single strike price, rather than sprinkling it around that target. It was 3750 contracts that executed in a range between $5.xx and $7.xx. As to exactly how the representative got the trades to all execute, probably nobody but he knows.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Elon is clearly trying to cap exuberance prior to inclusion to avoid this massive spike and drop. From the "stock will be hammered" email, to a cash raise, to "share price too high" comments. I think he would much rather sit at $400-700 for the next couple years than spike to $1100 and just see what happens. The back side of that could be quite ugly for TSLA and highly disruptive to the market as a whole.
I'm down for an $850 spike, a drop to $720, and a drift down toward $650. That IMO would be ideal. Leaves plenty of room to head north on actual news of actual progress, and more importantly leaves room to re-squeeze the shorts YET AGAIN if they pile in at $800. I don't wanna give them the free cash opportunity of shorting at $1200.
Can anyone confirm this $5B sales has not been executed yet? I know we speculated a lot on the last one as to the optimal timing, and it turned out to be executed right at the announcement. Knowing how this one's being played would tell us a lot.
Not really clear what you're trying to do here. It gets very murky when trying to divine what exactly is happening just with the volume and price data. The best I can offer is the hedge need data from my tables. You can see that since the index announcement, the raw hedge need has gone up by perhaps 50-55 million as price went up. May be haircut that a bit and say 30-35 million shares have been bought by market makers.
Beyond that, too much uncertainty for me to deduce one way or the other.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Here's my take on this:
Metrics and price ratios are designed to do what? That's right, help you figure out what price a stock might trade at. There is no higher purpose than that. After analyzing these numbers and crunching growth rates and applying necessary discounts, etc. these numbers are supposed to be a leading indicator of where you think the stock price should go. But the analysis of every company must consider the different opportunities and perceptions of anything unique about that company so you have to use these numerical tools appropriately for each situation.
Well, JPM has been wrong about Tesla from the get-go so you would have to be pretty stupid to listen to their advice on TSLA. Obviously. Even if you put aside that they are chapped about not getting a lucrative portion of that .25% of the $5 billion share offering - because they have demonstrated a total and complete failure with their inability to value TSLA.
Remember TSLAQ's narrative when it looked like TSLA might start eeking out small profits? They warned in a serious tone that if TSLA ever became profitable that's when the REAL trouble for TSLA investors would begin. Because then TSLA would have a scary P/E ratio, among other things. And that would expose TSLA as being ridiculously over-valued for what it was. Let's see, that was when TSLA was trading at $50-$60/adjusted share! We have 5 straight quarters of profitability (cause credits, ya' know) and at least two capital raises providing a further 2% dilution impacting the ratios unfavorably. Obviously, the market is not using the p/e ratio to determine fair value. Nothing could be more apparent.
The market is smarter than to be fooled by traditional financial ratios when dealing with a company as disruptive as Tesla! Honestly, I knew at the time that TSLAQ was just grasping at straws and that the ratios don't apply in traditional ways to massively disruptive hypergrowth companies. And can anyone say with a straight face anymore that TSLA is not a massively disruptive hypergrowth company? Besides TSLAQ who obviously doesn't count.
I think it has been determined not to read too much into what he posts?
You and @FrankSG correct. I listened to it again and it was for a single strike, but not a single order
One strike and some sort of midpoint strategy to hide the size of the trade as much as possible.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Tempting to buy some Dec 24/31 calls, but I'm gonna wait to see if we can hit $615 over the next few days, trim a little time value as well. <---- Get ready for $660 this afternoon.
Edit: Ugh. OTM Dec 24/31 calls are getting ridiculous. $900's are more expensive today, WTF? Good sign that IV is building!
Edit: Ugh. OTM Dec 24/31 calls are getting ridiculous. $900's are more expensive today, WTF? Good sign that IV is building!
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
IMO, that kind of analysis is worse than worthless. Because there is no way to quantify how much of the trading was "day trading" according to your characterization. The market makers probably have enough data to roughly approximate what you are trying to accomplish but that data is not publicly available. And, even if you had access to the same data the MM's have, you would need to aggregate it first and, even then, it would only be a rough approximation of what you are trying to achieve.
My advice: Expect the market to surprise you, either on timing, direction or magnitude (or a combination of the three).
This is actual advice!
Bought 15 shares at $627 with sofa cushion money I didn't know I had because it's a bargain. SP goes any lower, I'm gonna visit my Gramma and Grampa's and check for more in their sofas and do it all again.
OK, so I think I get it. He's saying Tesla is shopping the $5 billion right now, and using Feb. raise as an example of what the discount will look like to sell them (5%). Then, the price will be artificially held down, plus no big players will be buying since they could just buy from the secondary at a 5% discount. Once all of the secondary is sold, then it's back to the races. Good news for next week, but might dampen any options that expire this week.
I'm starting to question whether there is really going to be all the buying that people have been speculating. It would be financial malpractice for a fund to sell massive amounts of shares if they knew the price would be going up due to S&P fund accumulation.
corduroy
Active Member
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
A single contract is a single trade (or a portion of a single trade). I've not heard of an options contract being broken up into multiple trades. The term "shares" cannot be used to represent an option contract. At a minimum you would have to denote "shares represented" by the contract if you want to use the term "shares" in the context of an options contract.
I wish people would say what they mean!
All this talk of
Weber
BMW
Grills
Makes me thing you all have no clue. BMW totally has a gas-fuel future.
That was the first secondary offering this year at the presplit price and it was a normal offering with a predefined price unlike the ATM offering.
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