Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M3Rider]

It looks like the whole big special speech was a big fat nothingburger... I can't see the SP being impacted too much by it.

Nothingburger is 800k people + federal contractors not contributing to the economy for the foreseeable future + a lot of personal grief and it seems there will be no progress there for a long time. I like how the lies got immediately exposed in the same time frame though. That was some "president's address with immediate fact checking", probably the first in history?
What's next, all air traffic blocked after the "blue flu" reaches 100%? Is it an emergency?

 

[anthonyj]

I'm not so lucky, I got them around SP 350 so they are pretty much lotto now but with EM and twitter anything can happen


I don't think max pain and up/down ticks rules are important to SP anymore around 315-335, it's just coiling or gap filling right now IMHO. Resistance @345 is pretty strong though.

I bought way OTM calls the day before Q3 ER date was announced (Oct 22?)...they went up 20,000% the same week LOL so anything is possible!

 

[anthonyj]

Came to skim the thread now that part 2 of the video is out, and even HyperChange did a bit about, to see what the current consensus is. So this is where we are now? Blaming the customers? If you've ever had to go back and forth on anything with Tesla, you know the program... I find nothing unbelievable about these stories, given the clown show my delivery way back in 2015 was, and then my friend's deliveries in 2018.

The way out of this is investors sending a clear message to Tesla. Not apologetics.

Exactly. I'm bullish on Tesla and stuff but a lot of the complaints are valid. I've been waiting for a refund on my 4 year registration since May. They charged me for reg even though I transferred my plates...

It doesn't bother me that much because I understand the company is still growing... and I have no other choice than to stick with my Tesla since it's the best car on the market

 

[JustAaronnoraA]

I bought way OTM calls the day before Q3 ER date was announced (Oct 22?)...they went up 20,000% the same week LOL so anything is possible!

What is your realistic PT for $TSLA around q4 ER? Just want a second opinion on some plays, TIA.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Came to skim the thread now that part 2 of the video is out, and even HyperChange did a bit about, to see what the current consensus is. So this is where we are now? Blaming the customers? If you've ever had to go back and forth on anything with Tesla, you know the program... I find nothing unbelievable about these stories, given the clown show my delivery way back in 2015 was, and then my friend's deliveries in 2018.

The way out of this is investors sending a clear message to Tesla. Not apologetics.

The delivery issues need to be addressed. It's important to the mission. I think once Elon really gives it his full attention he will not just try to fix it, but blow away the competition. My Model 3 delivery (during the Q3 rush) was delayed an hour, and then they couldn't find the keycards and had to burn new ones. It was inconvenient, but it didn't make me think Tesla has an unsolvable customer service problem. I still went all in on $TSLA a couple months later.

 

[printf42]

Someone on that thread noticed Model X's among them, speculating that the destination thus is China (since European Model S/X go to Tilburg).

But the license plate frame is too narrow for China.

 

[anthonyj]

What is your realistic PT for $TSLA around q4 ER? Just want a second opinion on some plays, TIA.

I’m buying small amounts of deep OTM weeklies every Monday starting this week. More than likely Tesla will announce the ER date on a Monday night like last time. I don’t think it will ever break $390 tbh. Will just swing +-$100 until Tesla goes private. Wall Street seems determined in keeping this as the ultimate swing stock

 

[neroden]

Yes they would need to agree. We are not talking Slovenia from Yugoslavia

That's what they thought in Yugoslavia, and that's all I have to say about that.

 

[SpaceCash]

I don’t think it will ever break $390 tbh. Will just swing +-$100 until Tesla goes private. Wall Street seems determined in keeping this as the ultimate swing stock

One day this year it will definitely smash through 390 and not come back. I'm inclined to think that'll be sooner than later

 

[JustAaronnoraA]

I’m buying small amounts of deep OTM weeklies every Monday starting this week. More than likely Tesla will announce the ER date on a Monday night like last time. I don’t think it will ever break $390 tbh. Will just swing +-$100 until Tesla goes private. Wall Street seems determined in keeping this as the ultimate swing stock

Im a little more optimistic and think that 500 is in the card for this year, might break 400 if q4 er is good enough and model y surprise. As far as OTM calls I had been stalking 360 since last week dip, as soon as 345r b/o i will try to accumulate some more. Thanks again for the tips and ideas.

 

[neroden]

If the recession hits in 2019, it'd be around end of march when brexit and the china tariff negotiation reaches their conclusion. Seeeing how recessions last on average 11 months, but the stock market reaches its trough in about 6 months, I arrived at the Santa Rally. Coincidentally, March is about when the polotical machine should ramp up to have a bustling economy when voting time comes around. This is probably not a coincidence.

This is an interesting idea, but recessions do not last an "average" amount of time. And the current situation is, if not unprecedented in world history, certainly unprecedented in US history.

From the point of view of big investors and traders and business magnates, the US is being re-evaluated through the lens used to evaluate third-world countries with unstable governments and a lack of rule of law. This is big.

There are still definitely individual stocks which will do great for their own individual reasons, like Tesla, but don't be surprised if the economy is in recession well into 2020. Signs that the government is run by lunatics who don't know what they're doing lead to money-hoarding and capital flight. More in the Macro thread.

 

[neroden]

I don't know what will happen. But you are rational being, you don't know demagogues, and you're not their target audience; so you don't really know either. Being who you are and in the social circle you live, you're unlikely to have been exposed to unwashed masses that fall for hate and fear rhetoric. Remember, I have more experience than you with such ilk

Those tactics didn't manage to win the popular vote last time, against a truly awful candidate, and now the people targeted with those tactics are actually getting *directly economically hurt* by Mr. Trump, AND he's taking credit for doing so.

It'll be interesting to see what happens to support for Trump in the Midwest Trump-voting states if the shutdown lasts long enough that farmers don't get their regular farm subsidy checks. Remember, USDA is shut down...

An effective demagogue (Bolsonaro!) would have worried me. But Trump is the least competent demagogue I can recall ever reading of.

 

[defc0n]

Q4 earnings, model Y reveal, Moody’s upgrade, Q1 earnings, then s&p 500 are the reasons I’m trying to stay long right now. The latter part of the year is very fuzzy to me. Balancing deliveries between US and Europe, not sure how the market will accept lower US demand. Standard range should be coming out soon hopefully to help though. Just need decent margins on it.

 

[neroden]

Came to skim the thread now that part 2 of the video is out, and even HyperChange did a bit about, to see what the current consensus is. So this is where we are now? Blaming the customers? If you've ever had to go back and forth on anything with Tesla, you know the program... I find nothing unbelievable about these stories, given the clown show my delivery way back in 2015 was, and then my friend's deliveries in 2018.

The way out of this is investors sending a clear message to Tesla. Not apologetics.

Absolutely agreed. Of course, I can't figure out how to send a clear message to Tesla. You may notice the "This is Why Tesla will Fail" thread which I created. I of course contacted Tesla through every means I could think of many times before that.

 

[defc0n]

What is your realistic PT for $TSLA around q4 ER? Just want a second opinion on some plays, TIA.

Tree Fiddy

But in all honesty, I have the slightest clue. Market may react violently based on guidance.

 

[Singer3000]

The main Gigafactory thread has lots of detail but with GigaFactory 3 breaking ground, I was interested to look back at broad initial assumptions for GF1 back in Feb 2014 and compare to where we are now:
https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/blog_attachments/gigafactory.pdf

• Forecast was for 35 GWh of cells by 2020 (enough for 500k cars), with 50GWh of pack production. Depending upon your source, this looks like it's roughly been achieved about 2-years early. And with the footprint of the plant perhaps only a third complete? Should know more from Q1 forecasts and the next call.
• Forecast capex of $4-5bn to get there, including $2bn directly from Tesla. This doesn't look far off - the Fixed Asset section of the Balance Sheet at Q3 2018 indicated $4.47bn of capitalised Gigafactory 1 costs ($1.14bn of this was Panasonic).
  
• Cost reduction of 30%. Looks like a tick but who can say for sure...
• Forecast employees of 6,500. Last employee count of 3,000 though Musk indicated in Oct it was now up to 7,000.

Adjusted forecast since then of course talk about 150GWh of pack production. It's the 20,000 reported employees needed to get there that's the problem as much discussed.

 

[printf42]

I’m buying small amounts of deep OTM weeklies every Monday starting this week. More than likely Tesla will announce the ER date on a Monday night like last time. I don’t think it will ever break $390 tbh. Will just swing +-$100 until Tesla goes private. Wall Street seems determined in keeping this as the ultimate swing stock

I’ll take this as the buy signal for deep OTM lottos.

 

[Causalien]

My recollection is recession is 2 qtrs of reduction in gdp so cant officially be recognized until 2nd half of 2019

Ya, so if it begins in march, the first quarter of gdp reduction is q2, and gets reported in June and the 2nd quarter in sept. The recognition will be delayed, but the stock market reaction is immediate and sometimes prescience.

 

[sundaymorning]

I’m buying small amounts of deep OTM weeklies every Monday starting this week. More than likely Tesla will announce the ER date on a Monday night like last time. I don’t think it will ever break $390 tbh. Will just swing +-$100 until Tesla goes private. Wall Street seems determined in keeping this as the ultimate swing stock

Keep dreaming.

 

[anthonyj]

Keep dreaming.

Okay