Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Causalien]

One of the issues with Chinese lending to tesla is that they often weaponize their debt.

Many African countries feel prey to it and ended up giving control to China because they cannot pay the interest.

China further ensures this happens by being the contractor to build the project as the lowest cost bidder. The resulting construction often gets delayed enough or can only run at half capacity that the profit cannot meet debt obligations.

Whoever read this forum needs to make sure that elon is aware of this.

 

[MXWing]

Mass production of 2170 was exactly two years ago at GF1.

Samsung announced a 2170 battery in 2015.

With 4 years, it would be reasonable for Tesla to account for them being in all vehicles.

As far as investing in a particular production, you eat your losses if it makes sense to switch to to a better format.

Their internal economists would have calculated that break even point.

 

[printf42]

As an Australian I have no problem buying TSLA via ig.com
Could not a Chinese resident do the same? Would that be popular (lifting the share price) or unpopular (diluting US ownership)?

China has strict foreign currency regulations.

• Firstly, citizens have limited allowance to buy USD(50k) per year.
• Then, these brokers do not operate in China so people need to transfer money to an overseas account.
• Then they don’t permit transfer form regular citizens to any overseas account if it’s owned or related to a stock broker or any kind of investment.
• Actually transfer funds overseas to buy properties is forbidden too, but money of that scale will find a way out.

 

[MP3Mike]

Edit: The names would suggest 3mm but I just rolled with 5mm as doesn't affect the explanation.

The first two digits are the diameter in mms.
​

3mm

Nope, and 18650 is 65mm tall, while a 2170 in 70mm tall, so 5mm taller.

 

[mrdoubleb]

But on the other hand, CCS is supposed to be the European standard for charging EVs. Sauce for the goose (Renault, VW, Audi, Porsche, BMW, Opel -- just to name the locals) ...

Oh, edit to add: Has it been confirmed that those locals can use Tesla chargers yet?

The problem is, from the more than 5k CCS locations in Europe only a handful are 100kW or better. Some maps go as far as showing only 14(!). The rest is 50kW.

On your second point, there is no indication any other car could use them. The plug fits, but they don't have a Tesla account so the charging won't start...

 

[mrdoubleb]

I thought the cars had dual plugs. Tesla completely eliminated the Tesla plug?

They do dual plugs in China, but none of the Model 3 CCS test sightings in the Netherlands reported that for Europe. Also, Tesla is putting "Model 3 priority" stickers on converted supercharger stalls. They would not do that if the car could use either plug. Hopefully Tesla S/X owners will be corteous and we won't have nasty arguments.

 

[Buckminster]

My guess on the removal of X/S 75s:

80% likely: the change is to better differentiate 3 vs S/X. New S/X packs will have the option of 100 or 120 kWh.

20% likely (optimistic fantasy of mine):

-Q1 19 is supposed to be around when the newly-designed Model 3 pack is supposed to go into production. (Better, cheaper packaging).

-S/X will have a new pack design that has the same innovations as the latest Model 3 pack design and uses the 2170 cells. Better cooling loop, better packaging, better cell chemistry and form factor, etc. Basically the same as a 3 pack, only higher capacity. This will allow them to take better advantage of economies of scale and simplify vehicle service.

-All 18650 supply will instead be redirected toward Supercharger V3 storage, Tesla energy, as well as Megacharger/solar storage applications. Makes sense IMHO for the lower energy density cells to be used in stationary applications, I’d think. 18650 packs will be located onsite at Superchargers and charged off the grid to support higher, sustained charging for multiple Supercharger stalls at once. V3 power rate (for a Supercharger station as a whole) will exceed the capabilities of the local grid, and will enable (for example) a virtually infinite number of stalls to charge at the 150kW-180kW rate, and sustained up to what the car’s pack can handle. So you and your Supercharger neighbor can both plug in at the same time and charge at 180kW until the pack is at 70% SOC for example.

Poll - why dropping the 75 S/X?

 

[Fact Checking]

Edit: The names would suggest 3mm but I just rolled with 5mm as doesn't affect the explanation.

Cylindrical cell names include the exact dimensions:

• The 18,650 cells are 18 mm wide, 65.0 mm tall,
• The 2170 aka 21,700 cells are 21 mm wide, 70.0 mm tall

So the height difference is 70-65 = 5 mm.

 

[NicoV]

A little OT, but something that can potentially blow up in Tesla's face...

I have been following the German TFF forum on the progress of Model 3 homologization, deliveries and Supercharger CCS upgrades.

Homologization seems to be imminent, within days, which is good.

Model 3s are heading to pier 80 in the SF bay and German delivery specialists have started calling customers about delivery dates in late February. Even better.

However the spreadsheet that the forum has built to track CCS progress shows that only 14 of the 381 locations they track (excludes the UK and Ireland as they get their cars later so no need to hurry) has a CCS stall at this point.

This has a potential for a big backlash. If Model 3s hit the shores and there is only low double digits Superchargers available (and like 11 of the 14 was in the Netherlands) people will be pissed.

More concerning is media narrative. There is already an unnamed German car magazine looking for people who receive their cars first for an interview. I don't think you need to be a conspiracy theorist to see how the German press could spin this in a negative way with Teslas that are hard to charge...

Anyway, by no means a major concern but I wish Tesla made this CCS upgrade program super high priority.

On the FB Tesla groups everybody seems to be sure that Model 3 can’t supercharge via it’s Type 2 connector, claiming cost savings by elminating the part that makes this possible. I haven’t found any source however that unambiguously states that Model 3 can’t supercharge over Type 2.
Personally I think it would be stupid from Tesla to do this, which is why I think this rumour is not true.
At least not at the moment; When more and more superchargers are built it would be acceptable to optimize them for Model 3, switch Model 3 to supercharging over CCS only, and requiring Model S/X users to use the announced CCS adapter.

 

[Tslynk67]

A little OT, but something that can potentially blow up in Tesla's face...

I have been following the German TFF forum on the progress of Model 3 homologization, deliveries and Supercharger CCS upgrades.

Homologization seems to be imminent, within days, which is good.

Model 3s are heading to pier 80 in the SF bay and German delivery specialists have started calling customers about delivery dates in late February. Even better.

However the spreadsheet that the forum has built to track CCS progress shows that only 14 of the 381 locations they track (excludes the UK and Ireland as they get their cars later so no need to hurry) has a CCS stall at this point.

This has a potential for a big backlash. If Model 3s hit the shores and there is only low double digits Superchargers available (and like 11 of the 14 was in the Netherlands) people will be pissed.

More concerning is media narrative. There is already an unnamed German car magazine looking for people who receive their cars first for an interview. I don't think you need to be a conspiracy theorist to see how the German press could spin this in a negative way with Teslas that are hard to charge...

Anyway, by no means a major concern but I wish Tesla made this CCS upgrade program super high priority.

Sorry for the stupid question, but can you not use a Type-2 connector to charge on a CCS port, given that the form-factor is the same?

 

[lklundin]

Roadster will be able to do vertical take off?

Elon on Twitter
Elon Musk on Twitter

I am imagining STOL-like incidents such as this one:

 

[NicoV]

Bloomberg already posted an article today about how difficult it is to road trip in a Tesla in Europe
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Summarized: if you refuse to adapt your route a little bit so that you can use superchargers and destination chargers, it is difficult to road trip in Europe if you’re unprepared (i.e. having a couple of charge cards) . So it’s basically a review of how difficult it is to road trip in an EV that is not a Tesla.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Sorry for the stupid question, but can you not use a Type-2 connector to charge on a CCS port, given that the form-factor is the same?

I don't think its compatible like that. Tesla's Type 2 Supercharger was a modified connector. Physically it fits into CCS but CCS only does AC on the normal Type 2 and uses that bulky "combo" version with the extra 2 pins on the bottom for DC. Model 3 will now have "proper" CCS so it will be able to charge AC on Type 2 and DC on Combo. Sadly Tesla's modified Type 2 on the current superchargers only does DC.

 

[oneday]

I am imagining STOL-like incidents such as this one:

It would be pretty cool to see a roadster go off a huge jump and the cold gas thrusters used to ever so gracefully touch the roadster wheels back to asphalt.

 

[lklundin]

I fail to see how you concluded that I called you delusional?!
My point was that involving TSLA unnecessary in controversial topics is unwise from investor's perspective.

OK, since both the US and EU markets are closed, I will explain it to you:

Tesla's CEO already managed to involve himself in what is effectively state-level diplomatic intercourse (that's when one of the top guys in the world's most popular country publicly tells you: "We hope that your company can become an in-depth participant of China's opening and a promotor of the stability of US-China relations").

So I would be delusional if I thought that my comment on that and on the destabilizing, delusional and allegedly criminally stupid POTUS on social media would have even the slightest, additional impact on Tesla.

I do however concede that with the POTUS's narcisistic need for attention, Musk may very well have made himself an enemy of the POTUS by so blatantly stealing the limelight exactly during the time when the White House is trying to untangle itself from the mess it got itself into with China.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

One of the issues with Chinese lending to tesla is that they often weaponize their debt.

Many African countries feel prey to it and ended up giving control to China because they cannot pay the interest.

China further ensures this happens by being the contractor to build the project as the lowest cost bidder. The resulting construction often gets delayed enough or can only run at half capacity that the profit cannot meet debt obligations.

Whoever read this forum needs to make sure that elon is aware of this.

Unfortunately China was a bit too rapacious with doing this during the early years of Belt and Road and now no one trusts them or wants to deal with them anymore. It was very shortsighted to have been so capricious so quickly and so blatantly as they ran out of more customers to rob blind and shackle into debt slavery.

 

[sundaymorning]

Sounds like progress:

Beijing says latest US-China trade talks were extensive, made progress on forced tech transfers

 

[lklundin]

Did anyone see this yet?

Young Kelvin Yang is at it again, digging up interesting information on Tesla's dealings in China.

Like for GF1, Tesla was apparently shopping for locations in China with a losing city having offered a 3 G$ low-interest loan, indicating that Shanghai's terms must be even better,
Kelvin Yang on Twitter

On my request he dug up something akin to a reference (from a Chinese social media site):
特斯拉在上海合资建厂，会带来哪些影响？ - 知乎

I would not be surprised if a more firm confirmation would surface.

 

[FS_FRA]

OT

I do however concede that with the POTUS's narcisistic need for attention, Musk may very well have made himself an enemy of the POTUS by so blatantly stealing the limelight exactly during the time when the White House is trying to untangle itself from the mess it got itself into with China.

Elon to Orange Baby: help me out - your Tarifs are killing us
Orange Baby: . . . .
Elon to Orange Baby: Okay...I’ll go it alone
Orange Baby: . . . . .
Elon: Dear Premier Li....help us out
Premier Li to Elon: Sure!
Elon to Orange Baby:....drops mic....
Orange Baby: Cheesburger?

 

[NicoV]

Sadly Tesla's modified Type 2 on the current superchargers only does DC.

That’s a rumour. Please show me an authorative source for that.