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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I would say that Pezpunk has all the facts to be upset. I mean Elon may have very good reasons to change any of his plans because many tech has never been done before, but every time Elon say something publicly and backtracks, that's a mistake. FSD timing, taking Tesla private, and now Plaid+...these are all mistakes. Pezpunk has every right to be mad just like everyone who bought FSD 4 or 5 years ago due to Elon's public statements about it being around the corner. The biggest mistake IMO is the constant FSD promise/miss time lines + FOMO upselling tactics. It's fine for quarterly results but it's also what most shorts point to as fraud. Tesla really don't need all that pre order money as they couldn't recognize a good portion of it anyways. I always wonder if it's worth tarnishing Tesla's and Elon's reputation by selling FSD like a decade too early.
Let the TSLAQ types criticize Tesla for accepting pre-orders, or for fraud, they will do it regardless - Elon cannot prevent it anyway and it doesn't hurt me when they say crazy stuff like that.

As far as Elon's two "taking Tesla private" tweets, those tweets were obviously not true, and Elon knew it. So, the question arises, what was his motivation? I think we can rule out that he is addicted to lying. But I do think it helped burn the shorts and set up the stock for the 2019/2020 blowout. I'm certainly not willing to concede it was a mistake. If it was, maybe we need more "mistakes".

Really, things are not always what they appear, nor are they connected in a simple manner, the world is a complex place and it's impossible to say where we would be with any certainty without the "take private" tweets. It could have been as simple as Elon doing some necessary ground work between him and the SEC to establish some boundaries of their respective sandboxes. It's important to understand that Elon looks at a much bigger picture than most of us are accustomed to. We tend to compartmentalize decisions to things directly connected to those decisions. Elon wonders how things would turn out different if he makes a little tweak here or there. Or maybe one loud brash disruption as the "take private" tweets were. Maybe it was a mistake and maybe it wasn't, it's still not clear because things like this are not simple. I still don't know what his motivation was but I'm happy with the results.

I'm not so arrogant to think I know where we would be today with a CEO who was more predictable and traditional. I have a difficult time imagining we would be in a better place. I've seen people create chaos to gain the upper hand. When the people you are trying to disrupt view you as the enemy and are trying to stymie you every step of the way, apparent unpredictability can play in your favor and empower you.

It's apparent to me that there are a lot of people here who under-estimate the difficulty of disruption and out-maneuvering the very people who seek to stop you. This is not a tin-foil hat conspiracy theory, even world-wise people without a tendency to mental flights of fancy know this. People like Jack Rickard have quantified the billions of dollars that are at stake every day of every year. Without an extraordinary leader the mission would be delayed and stymied beyond the level of my patience. As it is, I'm astounded at it's steam-roller-like character. This is not a coincidence and it's not often you will get a front row seat to such brilliance. This is a far more difficult job than anything MSFT, AAPL or AMZN has done.

Perhaps I would be more arrogant and criticize everything if I thought it would further the mission. But you don't have to be very smart to see that being critical of things you might perceive to be a mistake does not further the mission, even if you happen to be right. And I would argue that, most of the time, someone with less info and less direct experience is probably not right, at least not knowingly so until after the fact when even Elon would see it was a mistake. In fact, even if you are right, second guessing our leader slows the mission. There is no point in it. He's a big boy and can take care of himself.
 
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Well.....it has been nearly 6 months since the refresh was announced. That’s nearly 6 months of additional time for them to get yields up at Kato and get the structural pack ready.

All the delays and changes here about the Plaid + could all tie into them saying “Well we’re close at this point to getting the yield we need out of the 4680’s, let’s just delay the refresh for another month or two”.

Also one more thing to point out. Elon made a tweet a couple weeks ago talking about how they needed more time to make sure the batteries in the refreshed S was safe. Which seemed a bit weird to me considering they were still using 18650 cells. Granted new chemistry but still.......that tweet would make A LOT more sense if Tesla was planning on putting the 4680 cells in the Plaid
Don’t count on that.
The new Model S has a new battery pack design, that’s what needed more tweaking. Maybe just software for the BMS.
No way that the cars built in in februari would suddenly be delivered with 4680 cells.
 
With a lot of concern over cell type I would point towards Bills latest tweets indicating 2170 advances have been applied to 18650 cell structure.

This is consistent with how Elon operates. I've mentioned it before and it is worth repeating: someone I know used to work at Spacex and substantial portions of the rocket were changed on an almost weekly basis while the version of rocket never changed. Spacex and tesla are constantly iterating behind the scenes. 18650 and 2170 may be older form factors, but you would be remiss to think a currently made 18650 or 2170 battery is the same tech or chemical makeup as older production versions.

A lot of folks here like to ignore logistics, or pretend it doesn't matter. Instead, let's do an estimate of how many battery cells Tesla would need to replace if they chose to turn off the existing supply of 18650 cells from Japan.

18650 Specs:
  • 730 Wh/Liter
  • 47 g/cell
  • 12.2 Wh/cell
So to replace an existing 10 GWh/yr supply of 18650 for S/X, you'd need to replace 820 million 18650 cells weighing a total of about 38.5 thousand tonnes. It would take about 200 million EXTRA 4680 cells per year just to break even.

NOT.GOING.TO.HAPPEN. 4680 cells are needed in Berlin + Austin for Model Y, then priority for CT, Semi, Roadster.

Fun fact: the physical volume of 10 GWh of 18650 cells is about the same as a cube 78.5 ft on a side. (that's a big twinkie).


Cheers!

P.S. Don't cross the streams, Ray...
 
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Roadster is definitely being made. I feel like the time will be after "scale up hell" dust settles. Priority is to scale up Y and cybertruck asap. Taking marketshare is a pretty big moat when an ecosystem is involved. People are brand loyal because they like predictable expectations. Charging network, autopilot, and the software interface are designed to lock people in as outside of this ecosystem makes people unease.
I'm surprised that after all the years you have participated in the many revealing conversations here that you still focus on things like "brand loyalty" and moats. Even Elon has let it be known that he thinks moats are "lame".

Tesla is not worried about the competition because the competition is naturally slower to innovate than Tesla and they cannot change fast enough to negate this fact. Tesla does not plan to sell every car they can make by creating "brand loyalty" and leveraging moats, they plan to do it by offering superior value. The Supercharger network is not a moat, it's a value proposition.

By building better cars, more cheaply, Tesla plans to sell everyone they can make. Brand loyalty has nothing to do with it. That's what you try to culture when you can't offer more value than the competition. If a car buyer want to pay more for less, they are welcome to buy the competition, Tesla is not going to try to sweet talk them back. Because Elon knows car buyers are not inherently stupid - they want to be getting good value for their hard-earned dollars.

That's Tesla's 10 year strategy in a nutshell. No one else can compete with it, they can only fill niche markets. Tesla is going after the bulk of the automotive consumer. Every other car maker will be collecting the scraps around the edges. Like Elon said, the actual product is the factory (the method of production). Anyone can build a nice car, the question is, how much will it cost. And did they hit a good price point by cutting corners or by making the car more efficiently?
 
Interesting developments about China smear campaign.
A recording of another owner has been circulating. That owner claimed his Model X has brake issues and drastically slowed down on highway. And here is the partial recording of what he said to Tesla representatives over appears to be a negotiation, interesting bits:
  • He knows the car probably only has a small thing broken that can be fixed(after 100k miles and already out of warranty), but he demand compensation of 3x the new car price.
  • If Tesla don’t want to compromise, he will hire media, including TV and social media to “make some big noise”
  • He has plenty of employees he can send to Tesla store to “protest”.
  • He called friends in local PD, they won’t intervene.
  • Shanghai AutoExpo lady was orchestrated by HeNan TV station, (and he can do the same to cause similar damage)
Most of these things he said were incredibly stupid, Tesla have an easy blackmailing case with these in hand.

And, later, the guy posted on social media complaining the recording is not complete and has been edited, effectively admitting the recording was real. Talking about stupid, you can’t even imagine how…

Last point was the most interesting, because a program in HeNan TV was the first media to cover that lady even before Shanghai incident, and after this recording starts to circulate, that TV program had deleted all content on their Weibo(Chinese Twitter) account.

There was also official announcement of another incident that a Tesla hit two law enforcement officers on a bridge, that the driver was at fault, nothing related to the car.

Seems the tide is quickly turning in Chinese media. (Not that anyone would fall for those BS propaganda in the first place anyways.)
 
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Firstly, we buy in litres. Gallons is alien to me also as is measuring distances in feet and weighing in ounces. Yards, stone, and inches I can handle.
Secondly, we are talking US gallons rather than imperial.
That is all gooblygook to me .. :D

To me: Every non-metric = imperial. I dont care if you use liquid ounces or cubed square-shatments .. i like just having meter and discrete multiples of 10s.. for everything. (i also would prefer dm³ instead of l, because its the same, but more clear to me .. :D )

I watched
and it is all... well...


Edit: But for the ones who trust google: the original price should roughly be 6.4$ per us-gallon.. if i made no mistake translating that.. feels like ancient wizardry ..
 
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The brand new refreshed Model X looks like a SpaceX shuttlecraft. Much want.


model-x-plaid-rear-991x743.jpeg


Cheers!
 
Awesome video as always. I know you didn't choose it, but unfortunately the advert I got at the start was "Want to invest in renewable energy? Try Hydrogen ETFs". 🙄
But hydrogen is the future! It goes even faster, as it goes downhill! Just look at NKLA .. :D

Btw: which ETF? I may want to short it .... ;)
 
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What I don't get is:

You planned an announcement event! Why spill the beans a few days earlier without proper context?

Either do the event and keep your mouths shut, or embrace his Twitter quirk and let him disclose one new feature every day leading up to the delivery date.

I think I know the real reason why Tesla closed their PR department: Everyone quit after tearing all their hair out....
 
That is all gooblygook to me .. :D

To me: Every non-metric = imperial. I dont care if you use liquid ounces or cubed square-shatments .. i like just having meter and discrete multiples of 10s.. for everything. (i also would prefer dm³ instead of l, because its the same, but more clear to me .. :D )

I watched
and it is all... well...


Edit: But for the ones who trust google: the original price should roughly be 6.4$ per us-gallon.. if i made no mistake translating that.. feels like ancient wizardry ..
It's pretty straightforward if you just remember that there are 12 sub-multiples of a thing in the thing itself, except when there are 16.

A hundredweight is easy as it is 112 pounds, except in the US where it is (bizarrely) 100 pounds.

And UK and US gallons are different for very good reasons.

If you say the above to the tune of the alphabet song you'll find it a handy mnemonic.
 
Tesla underestimates the effect it created by announcing 4680 structural battery pack.

Now, aside from the cost, everybody thinks that 4680 will have superior features to any existing battery cell : Performance, durability, charge speed ...

What happened is this : Almost everyone went for 4680 Plaid + instead of Plaid. Why pay $120K now if you can wait 6 months longer and get a superior product with only $20K more?

To get more orders for Plaid, Tesla tried several things so far:

1. Increased the price of Plaid +.
2. Delayed delivery times of Plaid +.
3. Grayed out Plaid + order button.

None of them worked I guess. Now there is no other choice but to cancel Plaid plus altogether.

Since 4680 Model Y is on the horizon, Tesla needs to make sure that it does not "osborne" Model Ys out of Fremont and Shanghai.
 
It's pretty straightforward if you just remember that there are 12 sub-multiples of a thing in the thing itself, except when there are 16.

A hundredweight is easy as it is 112 pounds, except in the US where it is (bizarrely) 100 pounds.

And UK and US gallons are different for very good reasons.

If you say the above to the tune of the alphabet song you'll find it a handy mnemonic.

And you think the above makes it easier? :(:eek::p
OK, we're getting way OT here, sorry to my fellow mad(wo)men! No need to reply.