Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZachF]

I honestly couldn't care less about plaid or plaid+. I know that some people here have ordered them, but hey, we are investors, we are likely in the top 10% (or 1%) financially. Thinking as an investor (not a plaid customer) lets remember that:

• 99% of tesla's potential customers have never heard of the plaid or the plaid+
• 99% of tesla's potential customers cannot afford either
• 99% of people couldn't tell the difference performance wise between the P100D ludicrous and the plaid, let alone plaid+.

Teslas future is in average or low cost cars. It has to be, as thats the mission. Getting a few thousand multi-millionaires to swap their Lamborghini for Teslas is great for bragging rights, but useless for reducing emissions. Those cars are not exactly daily drivers.

I know 'halo effect' and all that, but for crying out loud, my 2015 85D model S is considered *stupidly fast* by absolutely everyone I've ever given a ride. Tesla already have the 'our cars are insanely high performance' branding absolutely locked down. Nobody is swapping from a model 3 to a Nissan leaf because the plaid+ got cancelled.

TL;DR: Plaid+ or no, it makes absolutely diddly-squat difference to the company valuation.

Disagree completely.

The Model S is Tesla's advertising. It's why Tesla can get away with a $0 advertising budget.... It's literally the single car that made EVs cool.

That may change a bit when the Roadster comes, but it's true now until it does

Before the Model S EVs were funky, slow and (lets be honest here) POSs.

 

[jkirkwood001]

He also said 520 mile plaid S+ and now makes a point about anything above 400 miles is pointless.

Sometimes the biggest creator of fud is Elon himself.

Why do people keep saying "Elon said 'above 400 miles is pointless'"? All he said is no more Plaid+. The 400 miles thing is your and/or Fred's interpretation.

I think it's smart to give the 'bad news' of no more Plaid+ before the event, so we're properly blown away by the best Model S reveal on the 10th! (Like others, I'm wondering, 4680? Greater range than original? Dynamic wing? Etc.)

Let the Roadster be the speed king, and the Cybertruck be the range king (unloaded).

The Plaid+ always seemed like an unnecessary variant to me.

Edit: referenced Electrek article - thanks @Singuy

 

[jbcarioca]

That is all gooblygook to me ..

To me: Every non-metric = imperial. I dont care if you use liquid ounces or cubed square-shatments .. i like just having meter and discrete multiples of 10s.. for everything. (i also would prefer dm³ instead of l, because its the same, but more clear to me .. )

I watched

and it is all... well...


Edit: But for the ones who trust google: the original price should roughly be 6.4$ per us-gallon.. if i made no mistake translating that.. feels like ancient wizardry ..

Indeed those wildly varying systems are not logical. The metric system history is mostly connected with the French Revolution, in political terms anyway.
Here is a US-centric explanation:
origin-of-the-metric-system

A tesla is a metric measure:
Tesla_(unit)

However there are a small number of things that seem to be remnants of Imperial measures globally: almost all tyre sizes still are in inches, aviation and shipping still measure speeds in knots, the vast majority of screen sizes are stated in inches. We can only hope that those can be replaced with metric measures more quickly than the core metric system has taken to be accepted.

This discussion is on topic only to the extent that non-metric measures still are causing reduced efficiency at many companies competing with Tesla. Tesla is itself almost totally metric. OTOH, since NASA is relentlessly persisting in 20th century approaches they're still almost entirely imperial.

It is easier and cheaper for Tesla than for most other OEM's because Tesla had zero legacy systems and business practices. That might be worth a few cents per share.

 

[Singuy]

Why do people keep saying "Elon said 'above 400 miles is pointless'"? All he said is no more Plaid+.

I think it's smart to give the 'bad news' of no more Plaid+ before the event, so we're properly blown away by the best Model S reveal on the 10th! (Like others, I'm wondering, 4680? Greater range than original? Dynamic wing? Etc.)

Let the Roadster be the speed king, and the Cybertruck be the range king (unloaded).

The Plaid+ always seemed like an unnecessary variant to me.

It was from a quote electrek published yesterday.

“What we are seeing is that once you have a range above 400 miles, more range doesn’t really matter. There are essentially zero trips above 400 miles where the driver doesn’t need to stop for restroom, food, coffee, etc. anyway.”

Elon Musk announces Tesla is canceling Model S Plaid+, don't really need more than 400-mile range

Elon Musk has announced that Tesla is canceling the new Model S Plaid+ as he believes that the new Plaid...

electrek.co

 

[JRP3]

4680s will not have better charging capabilities.

However, the 4680s and structural battery can result in a faster charging _battery_.

How would that happen if the cell is the constraint?

 

[ZachF]

Why do people keep saying "Elon said 'above 400 miles is pointless'"? All he said is no more Plaid+.

I think it's smart to give the 'bad news' of no more Plaid+ before the event, so we're properly blown away by the best Model S reveal on the 10th! (Like others, I'm wondering, 4680? Greater range than original? Dynamic wing? Etc.)

Let the Roadster be the speed king, and the Cybertruck be the range king (unloaded).

The Plaid+ always seemed like an unnecessary variant to me.

The problem is though, $100,000 cars when you get down to it are themselves pointless... People don't buy on what they need with these, the buy on what it can do... Even if they never use it.

 

[Pezpunk]

Why do people keep saying "Elon said 'above 400 miles is pointless'"?

because he literally said exactly that to Electrek yesterday.

 

[stealthyc]

Disagree completely.

The Model S is Tesla's advertising. It's why Tesla can get away with a $0 advertising budget.... It's literally the single car that made EVs cool.

That may change a bit when the Roadster comes, but it's true now until it does

Before the Model S EVs were funky, slow and (lets be honest here) POSs.

Times have changed. It used to be that the S was the only Tesla people saw on the road, and it truly did make EVs cool. Nowadays though I know lots of people who are buying Teslas here in Ann Arbor, and none of them care even a little bit about the S and are not aware of anything related to it. The town is filling up with Model 3 and Y, and it is the fact that you can see those models everywhere and that they are impressive and affordable vehicles which are driving new customers.

 

[JRP3]

We are still waiting definitive answer but Elon did seemingly confirm that Plaid has 4680's structural pack. Twitter clues...

Other twitter clues have contradicted this.

 

[thx1139]

Honestly since the decision to have Plaid and Plaid+ I felt that it was rather pointless. It was the way for Tesla to put out a 500+ mile version. The idea of having 2 structurally different versions of the same car both being produced in Fremont doesnt make sense. So when/if Model S becomes 4680 structural pack with front and rear castings then it is for all S produced in Fremont.

So would much rather see the 4680s that were going to go into the Plaid+ be used in the Roadster to get it launched. Or allocated those for getting Berlin/Austin producing Y's sooner.

What we as investors lost was a S that had range of 500+ in 2022 and a 0-60 time of more then 1.9 seconds (Roadster) and less then 1.99 seconds. Honestly this is no big deal if it means Roadster is selling sooner. In many ways it is no big deal anyway. 4680 doesnt mean anything to the consumer. Also by mid 2022 doesnt everyone suspect that if Tesla need a 500+ vehicle that a 4680 version of Model 3 could do it. I suspect by mid 2022 all Tesla's will have range boosts.

 

[Fairchild]

No, that is a wash sale because you bought it back you have to be out for I think 30 days.

Thanks. I found out when researching it. And you are right. And to make things worse, you can't even buy a similar security within 30 days, so I guess that rules out moving it to ARKK or LUCID or perhaps any electric car stock for 30 days and moving it back.

 

[Unpilot]

Whether the car can go from 0-60 in 1.99 seconds or 1.79 seconds is, well, only good for bragging rights, it doesn't change the real nature of the product.

My "old" 2017 MS does 0-60 in 4 ish seconds. It is already STUPID fast.
I get the whole bragging rights deal...but anything over stupid fast is just....stupider.

 

[mongo]

4680s will not have better charging capabilities. It was made clear on the Battery Day presentation that the tabless design was to overcome that problem to make them comparable.

However, the 4680s and structural battery can result in a faster charging _battery_.

I assume you are referring to this graph from Battery Day. That is a comparison of charge rate for tab and tabless as size increases relative to their individual charge rate limits at the 21mm diameter. Note, the vertical axis is supercharge time increase. It is not a direct comparison of their charge rates.

The addition of multiple electrode terminals both reduces internal resistance and increases heat rejection. It is not physically possible for a tabless to have a slower charge rate than tabbed for the same size. Can they make a tabless so large in diameter it charges slower than a tabbed? Doubtful, since each layer gets its own electrical and thermal connection. In length that could occur, but we are talking 70mm vs 80mm where the tabless advantages far outweighs the extra 10 mm.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Disagree completely.

The Model S is Tesla's advertising. It's why Tesla can get away with a $0 advertising budget.... It's literally the single car that made EVs cool.

Tesla doesn't require advertising because they sell everything they can possibly manufacture. Model S did it's job years ago, now it's just a high margin afterthought.

 

[jkirkwood001]

Enjoy the ride on the new track!

Thanks @gabeincal , do any of those Model S' look like they have a dynamic rear wing?

 

[dl003]

I keep going back to the 1 week delay for some tweaks. Could it be possible that Elon was waiting for some additional results before making the decision to scrap Plaid+. I see two scenarios:
1/ They improved the Plaid. Since the biggest difference between the 2 version was range, maybe they just perfected Chill mode for Plaid that could give it 450 mile of range without sacrificing much performance, handily beating Lucid Air still.
2/ They were able to push forward Semi/Roadster that could absorb 4680 more profitably than Plaid+
If this is the case, the sales reps probably weren't let in on the decision until last night.

 

[thx1139]

Enjoy the ride on the new track!

Watched it yesterday. Why do they have those bodies of the S out in the lots? Are they intended for use during the launch even on Thursday? To show something?

 

[Pezpunk]

4680 doesnt mean anything to the consumer.

Hi there, consumer here. i was one of the 3.5 million people who watched the Battery Day presentation on the 4680 battery cell. On that day, due to that presentation, i decided to order a 520-mile range family sedan to be delivered late 2021.

Now, from day one, i assumed that'd probably be pushed back to some time in 2022, so no big deal on the delay. Not mad about that.

But to have it cancelled outright and then told that i didn't actually want it anyway is annoying and insulting. It's a blatant textbook bait and switch. If there are production issues or other mitigating factors, communicate that to us. Don't gaslight us about what we ordered and what we want.

 

[Zero CO2]

you only need above 400 miles if you don't have a reliable, fast , high coverage supercharger network

I don't see what all the fuss over Plaid + is ... a few years ago the thinking was that model S would be cancelled overall ... certainly don't need multiple designs at this segment especially if different production process .... also Plaid + does not even make sense ... it is just Plaid

OT: driving NYS thruway this weekend got bored counting Tesla's.. they are everywhere

 

[SO16]

Oh gawd. This is going to keep that BS HFCV debate alive for a very long time.

Biden administration launches program to cut cost of climate-friendly hydrogen production

Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm will on Monday unveil new efforts aimed at massively cutting the cost of producing hydrogen with climate-friendly processes, according to an agency official. Driving the news: The department will announce the "Hydrogen Shot" program to breathe life into the...

www.yahoo.com