Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[DFibRL8R]

bro my work added the firewall filter...

Got enough TSLA chairs to retire yet?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

F beat. sp up

Soon to be bankrupt companies are not on my radar

 

[RobDickinson]

You're reading TMC at work? Let's hope your employer doesn't add us to the filter.

yeah lets hope!

 

[Knightshade]

The order page still says, "Tri Motor AWD production is expected in late 2021." Tesla has had ample opportunity to change this statement and hasn't.

The FSD purchase page has said the city streets feature is "coming later this year" since 2019.

And still does.

Tesla is not the best at updating parts of the website. I wouldn't put much stock in that having not changed telling you anything about production/delivery.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Sounds like you do not want to see reddit content, so you added a firewall filter to block them.
As a results, you have seen some empty posts with the reddit content filtered out -- exactly as desired by your firewall filter!
Working as intended!

So you already have a perfectly working solution to enforce your personal preference.
Then why are you complaining and want to restrict what others post if you do not see them anyway ???

It's, most likely, not a firewall problem on his side. He only thinks it is. Since the big update of the forum 6-12 months ago, some links are broken for a bunch of people. There is no way to fix it by ourselves and whoever runs the form doesn't seem to care.

This comes up every month or so.

 

[hacer]

...
Were this to have been a 'normal OEM' Magna-Steyr or Valmet would be doing contract manufacturing. There would be other suppliers from the @UkNorthampton list doing most major systems. They would work. They would be reliable. They would not make anything innovative.
...
As we value TSLA shares we really need to remind ourselves that one major part is manufacturing innovation. That single thing keeps Tesla advancing versus all the OEM's who know exactly how do do this because they've done it for 'a hundred years'. Every analyst seems unable to comprehend just how consequential all this is.

This is precisely why Tesla should never concede their superior charging connector in the US market. It is better in every way than the crap (CCS) the "normal OEMs" came up with. CharIN's European members (the ones who basically control CharIN) crammed it down the EU's throat through lobbying so the EU (and Tesla) is stuck with it there. But never here.

 

[Thekiwi]

The order page still says, "Tri Motor AWD production is expected in late 2021." Tesla has had ample opportunity to change this statement and hasn't. I don't expect much volume in late 2021 but I tend to believe some production will take place around January 22 +/-. Maybe only dribbles and drips, but it'll be glorious. Yes, I'm an optimist.

They clearly said on the earnings call that CT will come after the model Y ramp in Austin, and the model y ramp won’t be an overnight thing, it will take some time to work out the kinks:

Yes, the Cybertruck is currently in its alpha stages. We finished the basic engineering, architecture of the vehicle. With the Cybertruck, we're redefining how the vehicle is being made. As Elon said, it carries much of the structural pack and large casting designs of the Model Y being built in Berlin and Austin. Obviously, those take priority over the Cybertruck, but we are moving into the beta phases of Cybertruck later this year, and we'll be looking to ramp that in production in Giga Texas after Model Y is up and going.

Also, they went out of there way to emphasize in their prepared remarks that they have an alternative 2170 pack for Austin & Berlin as an option if the 4680 cells still aren’t ready by the time model y production is ready to start. I think this is the first time this has ever been mentioned, and I think implies a reasonable chance the 4680s are not going to be ready on day one. unknown if Tesla has a similar 2170 pack ready for the CT.

We have some backup plan with nonstructural -- with a nonstructural pack and 2170s essentially. So -- but at scale production, we obviously want to be using 4680s and a structural pack. From a physics standpoint, this is the best architecture; and from an economic standpoint, it is the lowest cost way to go. So the lightest, lowest cost. But there's a lot of new technology there, so it is difficult to predict with precision when does it work and when do you reach scale production. And Drew's going to talk a bit more about the 4680 production.

Also, the 10-Q says they haven’t started installing manufacturing equipment for CT yet (it’s still “in development“).

Given the above I think it’s unlikely we see mass production of CT in 2022 Q1.

 

[RobDickinson]

If we see volume production of the CT by mid next year (and I am sure we will) I think its going well.

 

[Thekiwi]

Axios has the figures for the bipartisan infrastructure bill - looks like zero (or little) funding for EV incentives for cars?

• $7.5 billion for electric vehicles and EV charging; $2.5 billion in zero emission buses, $2.5 billion in low emission buses, and $2.5 billion for ferries.

so I guess will have to wait for the Democrat only house infrastructure bill for the big kahuna EV incentive

(also, Tesla hopefully is working on an autonomous bus that could be used in boring tunnels and be able to cash in on that “zero emission buses” funding)

 

[RobDickinson]

Incentives were always going to be funded elsewhere i thought?

 

[Cosmacelf]

But it didn't sound like the plan was to open the Superchargers up in the US yet. It sounded like they were going to start in Europe, where the connectors are already in place, and then move on from there. (But they were already working on the adapter and logistics for it, so maybe US will come fairly quickly.)

Maybe Tesla will apply for govt money to build out CCS compatibility on their existing chargers? As well as build new ones?

Btw, that’s why Elon or Drew mentioned having the CCS adapters available at SCs. It would be so that the stations are universal and thus eligible for federal funding.

 

[hacer]

I should also say I've seen a lot of documentaries and read a lot of books about Wall St and the supposed "safeguards" to prevent collusion.......and it's a complete joke. These guys can (and do) openly collaborate/collude together on many strategies and investments. The SEC has zero power and it seems based on the SEC's actions over the past 30-40 years of Wall St, they have no desire to do anything about it.

Quite the contrary. They have a strong desire to facilitate it.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Tesla should be able to construct and deploy SuCs much more efficiently than anyone else in the US. It just depends on the conditions of the Government contract. Hopefully there will be competitive bids awarded to just a few providers. The catch may be that there will be requirements to place the chargers in low-use (and therefor unprofitable) locations.

Given that Tesla already has chargers in high use locations and they are going to be the low cost producers of DC fast charging stations, Tesla stands to benefit from this.

 

[AudubonB]

(Edited to reverse what is and what is not italicized, to make more clear what is and what is not my writing)

‘Afternoon -

I’m in the middle of some negotiations here and haven’t caught up with the last ten pages of posts, but I wanted to share the following.

One company with which I have relations has just sent the following note; I am transcribing the relevant paragraphs verbatim, other than two sets of obvious excisions for anonymity. I cannot stress enough that ITS situation is NOT directly applicable to Tesla. On the contrary, one can make an excellent argument that it is more applicable to other auto manufacturers. Nor is what is shown a huge, or even moderate surprise. But it is a sobersided description of the state of affairs as of end of July, 2021. As follows:

Things in Asia have gone from bad to worse. The Coronavirus is having more unforeseen impacts in China and Vietnam, where our _____ products are manufactured. The negative impacts are just starting to ramp up again with government shutdowns of factories. Currently, vaccinations are not available to most, and only a minuscule percentage have been vaccinated in either country thus far.

Production workers are being tested for Coronavirus daily, with one positive case at any factory resulting in a lockdown - further stressing the supply chain, increasing delays for pretty much all vendors.

Our factories are working through the backlog of orders, but a lack of raw goods, delayed deliveries, and a limited workforce complicating matters further. With that said, all of our remaining shipments are delayed further with unknown delivery dates.

All of this comes as we are getting ready to announce a new….program for next year…We apologize for the continuation of bad news this year. Here’s to hopping for a better outlook in 2022.

 

[StealthP3D]

So just watched and one comment made me wonder what others think. In the earnings release Tesla said the following about Cybertruck

"We are also making progress on the industrialization of Cybertruck, which is currently planned for Austin production subsequent to Model Y."

Tom Nash apparently took that as a 1 year delay. Seems others have as well. I took it as start of production of Cybertruck at Austin will delayed a few months. Tesla specifically said Semi delayed until 2022. Cybertruck just that production will start after Model Y not a year later. Made me think Model Y 4th quarter and Cybertruck 1st quarter.

We don't have a lot to go on here because Elon was being vague on purpose (he doesn't want it to come back to bite him).

So I just take him at face value and fill in the details with what makes the most sense. Here's what I think makes the most sense:

Tesla knows they can replicate and setup Model Y production pretty quickly and have a fast ramp. The only big complicating factors are the new cast front and (potentially) the structural pack with 4680's. The faster the Model Y ramp happens the more capital efficient GigaTX will be. We also know they have great margins on Model Y. For these reasons Tesla will have their most skilled production engineers focusing solely on ramping Y as quickly and efficiently as possible.

As soon as the big kinks are worked out and the line is running mostly smoothly, they will transfer their most skilled production engineers to setup the Cybertruck production. Before that happens the Cybertruck development team will be verifying processes, testing, exploring various manufacturing techniques that may be unique to Cybertruck, etc. Then the Cybertruck production line design will be finalized and setup. This could be a lengthy process or it could go quite smoothly. If anyone can make it happen quickly, it would be Tesla. There are a lot of unknowns.

To me the real question is not when the first 20 Cybertrucks will come off the line but when the first 5,000 will. I'm hoping by the end of June 2022 they have 5,000 completed and being distributed. Any quicker would absolutely blow my mind and make me ecstatic! If it takes until December, that would be understandable as there is no manual for how to do this.

 

[Cattledog]

FYI, almost one year ago, on August 11, 2020 Tesla made this announcement...

Spoiler: 2020 Tesla Announcement

Tesla Announces a Five-for-One Stock Split​

Globe Newswire

Aug 11, 2020

PALO ALTO, Calif., Aug. 11, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Tesla, Inc. (“Tesla”) announced today that the Board of Directors has approved and declared a five-for-one split of Tesla’s common stock in the form of a stock dividend to make stock ownership more accessible to employees and investors. Each stockholder of record on August 21, 2020 will receive a dividend of four additional shares of common stock for each then-held share, to be distributed after close of trading on August 28, 2020. Trading will begin on a stock split-adjusted basis on August 31, 2020.
Forward-Looking Statements
Certain statements, including, without limitation, statements regarding the expected timing and impact of the stock dividend are “forward-looking statements” that are subject to risks and uncertainties. These forward-looking statements are based on management’s current expectations. Various important factors could cause actual results to differ materially, including the risks identified in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2020. Tesla disclaims any obligation to update this information.

Luckily, most of us didn't study history so I guess we're damned to repeat it...

 

[Krugerrand]

bro my work added the firewall filter...

Bro, more work, less play.

 

[StealthP3D]

FIFY. I can almost guarantee you that the Lora's of the world will write articles looking only at China July sales, and claim that Tesla is down compared to June, and therefore Tesla's problems in China continue. And, those articles will be all over my news feeds during the first week of August, AND the SP will dip.

I'm pretty sure that's why @Singuy capitalized "SMART" when he said SMART people will only look at total production numbers out of Shanghai.

 

[StealthP3D]

The terms/requirements are going to be critical. From the article (emphases mine):

The chargers are likely to be placed along heavily traveled highways that would be advantageous for long-distance travel and in communities for additional charging options in residential and commercial locations. However, the funding would have a “particular focus on rural, disadvantaged, and hard-to-reach communities.”

This is my wet dream! Tesla needed a reason to put Super chargers in more wide open, rural areas of the American West. If the Infrastructure bill encourages that, I'm going to be a very happy camper! Literally.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Last tidbit laughter for the day:

And my response:

Tesla's business is a joke?...Not as big of a joke as this though: