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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Dancing Lemur
Hoopy Frood
Fair question. I'll give only a brief* response since we're crossing over into territory that belongs in the options thread. Maybe if I make a reference to die Wiesn, it'll pass moderation muster.
Risk/reward is the driver. In May, with the SP at $580, I felt we would go up sharply. The premiums were not high, and I could step into a spread if I wanted. This was also in my trading account, so the risk tolerance is high, and I went with naked calls.
The price didn't appreciate as immediately as I would have liked, but that's the risk. As you point out, if I'd done a spread there, I may be in better shape right now, but still not necessarily in 2023. They're up about 55% at the moment.
The spreads I bought yesterday are in my retirement account, so there's less risk tolerance. At $720, knowing what the 2022 production is likely to be, I felt the 1400/1700 had a >50% chance to be entirely ITM.
And a note that in both cases, this is a small part of the port (~2%). Way-OTM LEAPS are great, but not my bread & butter.
*maximum verbosity off, but still not superbrief
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
No doubt Tesla Insurance will have the best data with which to provide the lowest rates to the safest drivers while avoiding (or charging extra) to those most likely to file a claim/crash but I'm not so sure they will get that data by measuring the delta between a driver's action and FSD behavior. There are many ways to drive safely and Tesla will know that FSD does not always take the most safe action. FSD will be safer than the average driver primarily because it's consistently aware, not because it will be the pinnacle of expert driving.
What Tesla Insurance will likely do is use DOJO to comb through the data of tens of thousands of actual accidents to identify certain "tell tail" markers prevalent in those drivers who have accidents vs. those drivers who do not. It will also weight the accidents for severity. These "tell tails" might not be intuitive accident predictors, that's the beauty of AI, it can see complex patterns. It may discover the most accurate way to predict high risk drivers is by measuring their reaction time to certain types of events or the failure to react at all to certain types of events, events that only have a small increased chance of leading to a problem. Drivers who take subtle evasive action for events that are of low probability of turning into a critical situation may be a better predictor of safety than how aggressively someone accelerates or how closely they stay centered in their lane.
I don't know what DOJO will discover and neither does Tesla, that's why they will put it to work on the problem! It should be child's play compared to FSD!
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StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Toilet paper price hikes? This shouldn't affect Tesla - I heard employees were responsible for bringing their own toilet paper from home.
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Craig Johnson of Piper Sandler is the technical analyst who first alerted me to TSLA resulting in my first share purchases in early 2013. Below is what he wrote this morning:
Tesla Inc (TSLA - $722.25); Shares have broken out from a multi-month descending triangle; back above the 10-/30-week WMAs; RS has rebounded back into positive territory and is confirming the breakout; add to positions, the next levels of resistance set up near $762, $794, and $883 (‘21 highs).
Tesla Inc (TSLA - $722.25); Shares have broken out from a multi-month descending triangle; back above the 10-/30-week WMAs; RS has rebounded back into positive territory and is confirming the breakout; add to positions, the next levels of resistance set up near $762, $794, and $883 (‘21 highs).
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Here is the Options Open Interest table for Aug 13, 2021 expiries, as of the 07:00 ET update:
As you can see, there were a large number of Calls open at the $730 Strike (17K). There were a total of 45.5K Calls from there to $720, while there were only 5K Put contracts. Such a move would net 40.4K fewer contracts ITM. So, is that tempting for MMs?
Surprise! MMs pounced at exactly 10:00 ET moving the SP from $730 to $723 in just 2 min: (vol at 10:01 was 202K shares, and at 10:02 was 153K shares, about 2x the surrounding 5-min avg vol)
And now a leisurely walk-down continues. Doubtless many $700 Call holders (and above) sell to close, while benefits are more modest for MMs as the "C-P" spread is much closer. I still expect MMs to get their preferred SP by end of day.
Table data shows that a move from $720→$705 kills 24.8K Calls while reviving only 15.6K Puts. Such a move would be a net of -9.2K fewer contracts ITM, and for which MMs would have to pay out at the end of day.
Total net contracts killed by MM manipulated the SP from 730 to 705 would be ~49.6K contracts. I'll leave it to you to calculate the amnt of payouts avoided in $$ for MMs. That's their "take-home" for their efforts today.
GLTA.
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More expensive toilet paper? This shouldn't affect Tesla. I heard employees were responsible for bringing their own toilet paper from home.
Poop jokes aside...it's an example of the trickle down effects across products to customers based on the supply chain and inflation in the presence of climate change events.
I've mentioned in the past and linked from others doing the research, but each of these disaster events create instability. Thankfully, between companies like Tesla and Apple that have a wholly-singular supply chain...they're better investments and better vehicles for proliferation of goods and services than ones that are dependent and, maybe, co-dependent on third parties in this situation...no?
Edit: For example -
On this "Not Model Y" story... I love a good puzzle. LeMur was fun with free advertizing. The symbols on "Not Model Y" are saying something (but likely just a message).
Could the T in Not be the steering wheel with the center link drawn as a sharp hook? No Steering Wheel, as in removable? This likely needs to happen eventually for the FSD network and max occupancy/efficiency. A bit early though... or is it? Wait, does it have 2 steering wheels?
Well that was fun, bit it's likely more about importing a Model Y from China while trying not to hurting national pride. So Tesla's being nice and funny, light-hearted, but with a serious message and pressure meaning. As if to say "What Model Y? Oh, you mean the one that Europe is trying to make? That's different."
What's your take? Is this a new Model, or just a message to get things rolling in Europe after Elon's recent visit to Germany?
Could the T in Not be the steering wheel with the center link drawn as a sharp hook? No Steering Wheel, as in removable? This likely needs to happen eventually for the FSD network and max occupancy/efficiency. A bit early though... or is it? Wait, does it have 2 steering wheels?
Well that was fun, bit it's likely more about importing a Model Y from China while trying not to hurting national pride. So Tesla's being nice and funny, light-hearted, but with a serious message and pressure meaning. As if to say "What Model Y? Oh, you mean the one that Europe is trying to make? That's different."
What's your take? Is this a new Model, or just a message to get things rolling in Europe after Elon's recent visit to Germany?
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I agree that we are entering a multi-year period of maximum instability, social, economic, political, across the spectrum. That's how disruption works and how real change happens. But the worst thing an investor could do is become fearful and reduce exposure to the market. Because being all in cash will cause a world of hurt. Being selective is particularly important. This is not your papa's stock market.
Thank you - I agree and I'm pretty sure a lot of posters here agree too.
With that said, people are going to get fearful and life situations will change, even for the people here, as the years progress and things aren't resolved/averted/changed. This is a new normal and the IPCC report confirmed that fact.
Quite honestly, I'm still learning about financial strategies here in (edit: what seems) a survival macro scenario. You?
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
I think it will do it whether you want it to or not. You may choose an alternative insurance provider than Tesla to avoid the information being used. But that fact alone puts you into a high risk group, possibly?
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I used to think this too and posted about it quite a bit in the oil thread. But it's starting to look like the backdrop of increasing sustainability will soften a lot of the impact of disruption. Perhaps I'm too much of an optimist, but the geopolitical, macroeconomic and societal impact of this transition seems to have more of a cooling effect. Markets can run what would traditionally be called "hot" without inflation since energy is becoming cheaper.
That should feed back on itself positively rather than causing greater and greater problems. Once the supply chain disruptions calm, I'm expecting super-juiced markets for years as we work through all this sideline cash and implement sustainable infrastructure. It'll only "end" when most of those trillions get locked up in long term energy supply contracts.
All the more reason to take your stance of being in the market. Missing this potentially chaotic period of change from fossil-based scarcity to renewables-based sustainable abundance would be financially catastrophic. Choosing the wrong beneficiaries would be equally problematic, tho we don't see to have that problem here.
MarketWatch - 46 minutes ago: Tesla's Berlin factory to fix 'logistical nightmare' for EV maker, Wedbush says
Excerpt:
Tesla Inc.'s TSLA, -0.77% Berlin factory being slated for production in the fall is "a positive step on expanding Tesla's broader manufacturing capacity globally," Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said in a note Friday. Chief Executive Elon Musk visited the under-construction plant in Berlin on Friday and said Tesla hopes to make its first cars there in October or sooner. Model 3s and Model Ys made in China are being exported to Europe "in a logistical nightmare that is not sustainable and thus pushing back delivery times for customers throughout the region," Ives said. Berlin as well as the factory under construction in the Austin, Texas area "are key manufacturing hubs that will be key in the long term Tesla EV story as we see down the road the company producing millions of EV vehicles per year vs. roughly (870,000 and 900,000) this year," he said. Capacity and supplies remain the biggest hurdles for Tesla, not demand, Ives said.
Excerpt:
Tesla Inc.'s TSLA, -0.77% Berlin factory being slated for production in the fall is "a positive step on expanding Tesla's broader manufacturing capacity globally," Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said in a note Friday. Chief Executive Elon Musk visited the under-construction plant in Berlin on Friday and said Tesla hopes to make its first cars there in October or sooner. Model 3s and Model Ys made in China are being exported to Europe "in a logistical nightmare that is not sustainable and thus pushing back delivery times for customers throughout the region," Ives said. Berlin as well as the factory under construction in the Austin, Texas area "are key manufacturing hubs that will be key in the long term Tesla EV story as we see down the road the company producing millions of EV vehicles per year vs. roughly (870,000 and 900,000) this year," he said. Capacity and supplies remain the biggest hurdles for Tesla, not demand, Ives said.
AquaY
Member
Everyone has to make their own decisions on what they are comfortable about.
I don't see it being fair to say the person who turns this down is in a high risk group but they can offer a discount to drivers to participate.
I believe Progressive insurance does that
I used to think this too and posted about it quite a bit in the oil thread. But it's starting to look like the backdrop of increasing sustainability will soften a lot of the impact of disruption. Perhaps I'm too much of an optimist, but the geopolitical, macroeconomic and societal impact of this transition seems to have more of a cooling effect. Markets can run what would traditionally be called "hot" without inflation since energy is becoming cheaper.
That should feed back on itself positively rather than causing greater and greater problems. Once the supply chain disruptions calm, I'm expecting super-juiced markets for years as we work through all this sideline cash and implement sustainable infrastructure. It'll only "end" when most of those trillions get locked up in long term energy supply contracts.
All the more reason to take your stance of being in the market. Missing this potentially chaotic period of change from fossil-based scarcity to renewables-based sustainable abundance would be financially catastrophic. Choosing the wrong beneficiaries would be equally problematic, tho we don't see to have that problem here.
Cool, glad there's another optimist including myself on this forum. Ill add that my rhetoric is negative and disaster centric as a strategy - use to play a lot of defense well in Basketball (growing up).
Prepare for the worst (that is, to protect the rim), hope and aim for the best.
woodisgood
Optimustic Pessimist
When you were being offensive (pun intended), did you let the long balls fly or take the easy points inside. This is important.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Incoming $9B Cap Raise for CATL, in support of expanded bty manufacturing. Open to Big Dawg's only though:
www.teslarati.com
Tesla China's battery supply set to increase with CATL share sale
Tesla’s battery supply for its cars made in China is set to expand. The electric automaker’s battery cell supplier in China, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. (CATL), is set to sell $9 billion in stock to increase its manufacturing capacity as the EV market expands. CATL said on Friday morning...
www.teslarati.com
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
If you know the nuts and bolts of insurance, you know everyone is graded on a curve. Essentially, offering to reduce rates for safe drivers with a monitoring device raises the rates for those who who refuse the device. And the more people who get the device, the more true this is.
A couple of years ago my insurance company offered me reduced rates to install driver monitoring. I don't trust legacy insurance companies to use data in an accurate manner and so was worried I would be unfairly dinged. I refused the monitoring and the discount. I'm pretty confident Tesla will use data more productively and I won't have to change my driving habits to fit into my insurance company's "box" just to save a few hundred dollars a year.
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