Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MXWing]

I daily trade the indexes. Always good to keep in mind what’s happening in the markets even when someone is 100% invested in one stock. It doesn’t hurt to buy some SPY puts to hedge a portfolio when there is increased risk

I don't see why one would be buying SPY puts to hedge TSLA. If you were really scared, one would just collar the stock using short calls to finance protective puts.

The smartest, most consistent winning strategy is holding and buying dips.

BTW, TSLA has not followed QQQ nor SPY for all of last week. If it does on Monday you would be right for 1 out of 6 days.

In any event, I'm looking forward to seeing how well that calculator seems to rate us. This could end up being quite relevant to our TSLA positions.

Disagree. This is being exceptionally careful for this early beta. Eventually, FSD will not care how good or bad a driver you are once it has control.

The button scares me. The headlines it will generate have already been written. Scumbags like Russ, Lora, Neil and Linette are just drooling over the news on the imminent widespread availability of The button

Tesla hasn't been in a rush to release the button which is a good thing. I too would rather they not, but I like how Tesla is not holding feet to fire for the self imposed deadlines.

I would not hold it against Tesla to deny me the button. They should based on risk factors.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

An ad for Tesla insurance

During AI day, Ashok mentioned (1:17) the autopilot computer runs the autopilot planner for all relevant objects around it. It makes sense that if Tesla is using real world video to train the vision neural nets, they will also use real world driver behavior to train the the “autopilot planner” neural net.

In other words, if pressing the FSD beta button gives Tesla access to your driving behavior, all beta testers essentially become auto labellers for autopilot planner data sets. This would be genius move on Tesla’s part if that’s what they’re doing. It would also be bullish for FSD if the main training focus has shifted from “try to stay on the road and not hit anything” to “try to predict what all these cars are about to do”

 

[Thekiwi]

The button scares me. The headlines it will generate have already been written. Scumbags like Russ, Lora, Neil and Linette are just drooling over the news on the imminent widespread availability of The button

Well it is a very big question about what exactly happens when the inevitable first fatal FSD crash occurs that is judged to be the obvious fault of the FSD software. Can easily see that leading to a result of Tesla having to pull the FSD beta program.

 

[StealthP3D]

Well it is a very big question about what exactly happens when the inevitable first fatal FSD crash occurs that is judged to be the obvious fault of the FSD software. Can easily see that leading to a result of Tesla having to pull the FSD beta program.

FSD Beta will be no different than Autopilot in terms of it being a Level 2 driver assistance feature. As long as the driver is required to remain alert and in control at all times, all accidents will be the fault of the driver, not the software. Tesla is not billing this as not needing intervention to remain safe.

 

[truwa]

I have not said the things you quoted me saying. I don't think Q3 deliveries will be affected by the EV rebate. If somebody cancels their delivery, there will be another buyer in line who will take delivery instead. So, it's not an issue at all in Q3. As for Q4, if Tesla doesn't do anything then the number of buyers that are willing to take delivery at an $8,000 disadvantage will be clearly less than the 80,000 Model 3/Y buyers Tesla would normally have in the US in Q4.

As for the China numbers in August, Tesla decided to send two more ships to Europe at the end of August even though the ships will be late for Q3 deliveries. My estimates are based on what's most likely to happen. I had calculated the trip times and I wasn't expecting more ships. But there were 2 more ships and the exports were higher than I expected. Again I was very transparent about it here. There will be a delivery spill over into Q4 because of that.

If you want to beat my estimates, you don't need to make any calculations based on production. Just estimate 2% off in either direction and you will be more accurate than me 50% of the time.

From your tweets :

"Also, an $8,000 EV rebate in the US is likely if a buyer takes delivery in 2022. So, some buyers will postpone."

"Some of the extra production will go towards restoring inventory which is at an all-time low in North America.".

Your estimate for Q1 2021 was 165K vs the actual being 185K. That was the end of Troy Teslike for me. Your approach clearly does not work. It is a guesswork as good as anybody else's now. That is my opinion.

The ones that follow Tesla's weekly production figures in China and US are much closer because their thesis is based on "Tesla will sell every car it can produce.". Their estimates have nothing to do with your assumption-driven approach.

 

[Jack6591]

Insurance companies have long been grounded in the tenets of actuarial science; grounded in empirical evidence. Tesla’s suite of cameras and sensors take that data and evidence to levels the insurance industry and the National Highway Transportation Administration have never dealt with in the past. My car issues warnings and alerts that make me a far safer driver than I would be without them—safer than the thousands and thousands of drivers I share the road with.

In my view, the risks associated with a wider release of FSD beta are overblown. Will there be accidents? Certainly. Will the number of accidents be greater than national averages? I’m convinced they will not be. Will the FUD related to Tesla’s FSD be overblown? It will exponentially greater than anything we’ve seen to date.

I’m ashamed to admit this, but I love a good fight. Indeed, this a gathering storm, apparently Elon is ready to fight. Y’all be safe.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Wu Wa posted additional footage today on his Shanghai drone video from Sep 17.
In this additional footage, we see much more trailer activity at the logistics lot.

Two videos taken by WuWa on Sep 17. First one shows new building construction just SW of the GF3 Electric Sub-station:



It doesn't look like a factory, perhaps an office building? Here's link to the video timestamp for the following detail image: GF3.SW.NewConstruction.2021-09-17



And finally, there's new ground prep underway in the NE-adjacent lot: GF3.SW.NewConstruction.2021-09-17



In this single picture frame, we can see 25 "muck trucks" hauling new ground fill material onto the site. It's being dumped continuously, then spread by excavators. Something big is coming to the NE (and they are in a hurry). New factory site?

Cheers!

 

[UncaNed]

What's with this $15 price drop??

 

[rikkert]

What's with this $15 price drop??

I guess fears of Evergrande crashing the Chinese economy

 

[Tslynk67]

What's with this $15 price drop??

$TSLA following Furtures, basically, just Hedgies and limited retail trading right now

Main pre-market in 2 hours will be more indicative, don't forget that institutions cannot buy in PM/AH, only main

 

[Phobi]

 

[Artful Dodger]

TSLA down less than 2x macros on China Evergrande debt 'crisis':

Nasdaq 100 Dec 21 (NQ=F)​

CME Delayed Price. Currency in USD
15,152.75 -173.25 (-1.13%)

TSLA Pre-Market Quotes Live​

This page refreshes every 30 seconds.
Data last updated Sep 20, 2021 05:37 AM ET.

Consolidated Last Sale	$744.32 -15.17 (-2.00%)
Pre-Market Volume	90,600
Pre-Market High	$750 (04:00:01 AM)
Pre-Market Low	$741.11 (04:04:21 AM)

 

[OrthoSurg]

TSLA down less than 2x macros on China Evergrande debt 'crisis':

Nasdaq 100 Dec 21 (NQ=F)​

CME Delayed Price. Currency in USD
15,152.75 -173.25 (-1.13%)

TSLA Pre-Market Quotes Live​

This page refreshes every 30 seconds.
Data last updated Sep 20, 2021 05:37 AM ET.

Consolidated Last Sale	$744.32 -15.17 (-2.00%)
Pre-Market Volume	90,600
Pre-Market High	$750 (04:00:01 AM)
Pre-Market Low	$741.11 (04:04:21 AM)

Ouch, too much red for me.
No dry powder on hand.
Going back to sleep, got off the wrong foot.

 

[kanweg]

Very informative YT movie on how the Tesla model S door handle evolved and why it is now so much more reliable (and cheaper) than the original version.

 

[EVMeister]

$TSLA following Furtures, basically, just Hedgies and limited retail trading right now

Main pre-market in 2 hours will be more indicative, don't forget that institutions cannot buy in PM/AH, only main

Went down a bit more. Market open will be more interesting. Hopefully in a good way.

 

[traxila]

Ten percent corrections do happen and the question is where would high beta TSLA end up with a ten or fifteen percent tumble in the S and P?

I personally think it would do OK, probably staying above 600 as the great news regarding sales and the rest continue to trickle out and the BEV market continues to explode.

OTOH, a note of caution to all my brethren here; the powers that run the casino seem eager for a cleansing. They are are practically all on record that this is what should happen and are positioned for it. Corrections rarely play favorites…

 

[Artful Dodger]

Ouch, too much red for me.
No dry powder on hand.
Going back to sleep, got off the wrong foot.

Both Max-Pain and my experimental "C-P Brkpt" indicator point at $750 right now. BIG Put wall at 700, but also significant convergence of OI around the 750 strike:

I'm not concerned even a little about the supposed "Evergrande debt crisis". This story broke last week. Evergrande's total debt is $300B vs China's GDP of $14.6T in 2021. China will outgrow this w/o blinking an eye, even in the worst case scenario (which is very unlikely).

IMO shortzes and hedgies are just using this as an excuse in the Pre-market to try to start a stampede to the exit, trading lots'o chairs amongst themselves. Remember, large Funds don't trade in the Pre-market, this is the bit players.

Cheers!

 

[Dan Detweiler]

The button scares me. The headlines it will generate have already been written. Scumbags like Russ, Lora, Neil and Linette are just drooling over the news on the imminent widespread availability of The button

Yes, I'm sure what you say is true. The haters can't wait for that first accident and especially, that first fatality. The thing is, it is going to happen. Next week, next month, next year. There WILL be accidents and fatalities on FSD. Nobody has ever said there wouldn't be. The point is the statistical chance of that happening relative to human driving. The articles are going to come. It is inevitable. We just have to look past it and keep improving the system. Eventually statistics (and probably insurance companies) are going to prove that the technology is safer. Once that happens, people will come around.

There are going to be absolutely awful headlines and a sea of Fear Uncertainty and Doubt in the early days of this rollout. We know the truth. Hell, my EAP has saved me multiple times. Can't imagine what FSD Beta is going to be like. We just have to stay the course and turn a deaf ear and blind eye to all the BS that most certainly will fly.

Dan

 

[Drezil]

I'm not concerned even a little about the supposed "Evergrande debt crisis". This story broke last week. Evergrande's total debt is $300B vs China's GDP of $14.6T in 2021. China will outgrow this w/o blinking an eye, even in the worst case scenario (which is very unlikely).

I think that is not the main fear.
It is more like a cascade of defaulting companies if this one is busted. Think 2008-Housing in the US.
Many chinese are WAY overleveraged.

But i think the state will step in & not let this happen. But fear makes the markets volatile and volatility opens up possibilities to make money from the impatient/fearful/just-following people.

 

[Singuy]

I think that is not the main fear.
It is more like a cascade of defaulting companies if this one is busted. Think 2008-Housing in the US.
Many chinese are WAY overleveraged.

But i think the state will step in & not let this happen. But fear makes the markets volatile and volatility opens up possibilities to make money from the impatient/fearful/just-following people.

Only difference is this is all state controlled. There wouldn't be a bank that defaults because they are not private institutions. The government will move funds around and bail whoever it needs out. As for public opinion, the Chinese government doesn't give a F.