Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FireMedic]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1442575567241375745

Weird that in the filing the trademark is also for CYBERQUAD. Maybe this will be the model Q that’s been discussed here previously.

Hard to tell if this is just a trademark for a T-shirt design or if this could signal progress towards a product release.

 

[printf42]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1441686183097028608

Elon liked this tweet, my interpretation is he received many feedback of the Safety Score algorithm, and is thinking about improvements.

“Tesla the ultimate real-world-AI company is using linear regression to rate safety level of a trip…ho ho…busted tech company…” /s

 

[JustSaying]

Real Time Safety Sc

Looks like deliveries of S have VINs now in the 447 range. Could be a 15k+ Model S delivery quarter...

I just got a VIN 449XXX, blk/wht/cf/19s with FSD. EDD 9/28-9/30.

 

[Thekiwi]

Yes, that's what it means, and that should surprise no one who as been paying attention. The plan for GF3/phase 2 was always to have two assembly lines, and (likely the 3rd week of Aug) the 2nd line has come online.

The best confirmation that this is true? The desparate FUD attempt this morning before the Market opened that somehow China would starve NEV manufacturers in general of parts supply. And this somehow was twisted into a parts squeeze for GF3. Shaky FUD right there, the shortzes must be really desparate right now.

P&D within a week.

Cheers!

Is there a public source like a news story confirming a 2nd model Y assembly line coming online thst you could share? am very interested to hear further details about what exactly has been done. Have they managed to increase the throughput of the existing stamping and Paintshop? Or have they duplicated those as well? the paint shop seems like it would be the hardest bottleneck to doubling capacity, although perhaps they could use the model 3 paint shop as well

 

[RobDickinson]

All I heard was an extra shift on the model Y line they had?

 

[TheWalkingDad]

I just got a VIN 449XXX, blk/wht/cf/19s with FSD. EDD 9/28-9/30.

Wow. Based on VIN numbers alone (they could be stockpiling) but that could mean 17k+ deliveries of model S for Q3. Most of the reported higher VINS are from Cali area so they might be limited on what they can transport for deliveries... Take that with a grain of salt.

Going to bring the Tesla employees donuts when I pick up my S tomorrow.

 

[Singuy]

Wow. Based on VIN numbers alone (they could be stockpiling) but that could mean 17k+ deliveries of model S for Q3. Most of the reported higher VINS are from Cali area so they might be limited on what they can transport for deliveries... Take that with a grain of salt.

Going to bring the Tesla employees donuts when I pick up my S tomorrow.

17k deliveries in a quarter of a $150k sedan is CRAZY. That's like the entire YEARLY sales of Aston Martin Rapide, Porsche Panamera Turbo, Taycan, Mercedes S AMG, BMW M7, and the Maserati Quattroporte Trofeo combined..

​

 

[RobDickinson]

Thats what $2bn in revenue they didnt have the rest of the year on a high margin vehicle.

 

[SPadival]

This thread is super bipolar, super bullish or super bearish. Why $850 this week?

Because people are buying ahead of Mahatma Gandhi’s birthday on October 2nd

 

[TheWalkingDad]

17k deliveries in a quarter of a $150k sedan is CRAZY. That's like the entire YEARLY sales of Aston Martin Rapide, Porsche Panamera Turbo, Taycan, Mercedes S AMG, BMW M7, and the Maserati Quattroporte Trofeo combined..

​

Well probably more on the average of $100-110k. You have to factor in there are a mix of $80k+ LR S as well as the loaded $150k plaid. Some of the orders including mine also had lower pricing as those reservations had a $10k lower price.

 

[winfield100]

Please remember to vote your shares everyone. YOUR VOTE COUNTS!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1442588420719595522

??????????????

 

[Accident]

17k deliveries in a quarter of a $150k sedan is CRAZY. That's like the entire YEARLY sales of Aston Martin Rapide, Porsche Panamera Turbo, Taycan, Mercedes S AMG, BMW M7, and the Maserati Quattroporte Trofeo combined..

​

Not fair! The BMW M7 doesn’t exist.

17K is also the number of Porsche US sales in a quarter. Including all cars and SUVs. ICE, hybrid and electric.

 

[Accident]

I made a script to pull sales data from WA state and calculate the ASP for each model by month.

Model S ASP for Q3 in Washington is $110,030.43

ASP	Model	Count	Month
54232.82​	Model Y	262​	Jan-21​
48319.76​	Model 3	42​	Jan-21​
87980​	Model X	2​	Jan-21​
53252.64​	Model Y	347​	Feb-21​
46220.24​	Model 3	41​	Feb-21​
55265.35​	Model Y	1003​	Mar-21​
47735.05​	Model 3	657​	Mar-21​
56786.59​	Model Y	261​	Apr-21​
47099.02​	Model 3	41​	Apr-21​
56344.03​	Model Y	124​	May-21​
46326.49​	Model 3	37​	May-21​
59548.35​	Model Y	1238​	Jun-21​
50130.08​	Model 3	845​	Jun-21​
118827.5​	Model S	72​	Jun-21​
55729.06​	Model Y	213​	Jul-21​
46700.14​	Model 3	148​	Jul-21​
104513.7​	Model S	38​	Jul-21​
56262.44​	Model Y	127​	Aug-21​
44672.34​	Model 3	64​	Aug-21​
133323.3​	Model S	9​	Aug-21​

 

[Gigapress]

One accident - just one - the noise level will be unbearable.
One injury - just one - FSD music will come to a complete stop.

Biden's UAW lackeys will unleash its laps dog NTSB & NHTSA to do the dirty act.

NTSB only has the power to demand information for investigation and to make complaints and recommendations based on that.

Also, the USA is only one country. If the executive branch somehow thwarts FSD rollout even when the actual evidence shows otherwise, Tesla can just find a country that IS willing to be the first. The economic and social benefits are surely irresistibly strong for someone. Sooner or later the first domino will fall, and after that point the benefits of autonomy will be increasingly difficult for other governments to ignore.

NHTSA's policy on automation is available on their website. They seem to be pretty on board with developing the technology and they are also a data-driven engineering organization. They have been requesting data from Tesla and others but have not stopped development in any meaningful way. Skimming through their policy document (2nd link below) I'm actually pretty happy with how well they've thought this through.

Automated Vehicles for Safety | NHTSA

Get info on automated driving systems, also referred to as automated vehicles and "self-driving" cars, and learn about their safety potential.

www.nhtsa.gov

https://www.transportation.gov/sites/dot.gov/files/docs/policy-initiatives/automated-vehicles/360956/ensuringamericanleadershipav4.pdf

 

[MXWing]

This thread is super bipolar, super bullish or super bearish. Why $850 this week?

Last week before P/D which can send this even HIGHER... or sell the news and epic crash.

If I had it my way, people would have to take a new position as a a requirement make a post.

Bearish? Sell those calls. Bullish? Sell those puts or buy some shares.

Me I rolled up my December combos from 600/800/900 to 700/800/900.

Let's gooooooooooo

 

[RobDickinson]

Thats what $2bn in revenue they didnt have the rest of the year on a high margin vehicle.

Q2 they delivered 1890 model S, assume most were the $130k plaid tho.

17,000 model S at an ASP of $111k is $1.9bn, or $1.6bn more than Q2 , or a 15% rise in automotive revenue.

Average margin was 28.4% so gross cash in the bank addition of around half a billion?

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

First of all. Something is a little weird with the historic numbers at teslastats. Today the number for Q1 2019 went up with another two cars. Two and a half years later. Talk about being slow putting the paperwork in or something.

It doesn't matter much though because my prediction for a 'slower' day was not only incorrect. It was very incorrect. A ship must have arrived Norway a couple of days back and unlike previous deliveries this one had mostly model 3s.

Current Norwegian quarterly record is 7,180 (or thereabouts) cars. With seven six five four weekdays to go Tesla is at 5,982 6,226 6,391 6.848, This is 1,192 948 787 332 behind. Which translates to 170 158 157 83 cars per weekday remaining. Todays sales were 303 239 162 457.

So it's suddenly pretty much a given that the quarterly record will be beaten, if not on Monday then on Tuesday. Heck, they'll probably work at least one of the weekend days so could be tomorrow.

And if there really is another ship coming over the weekend we might see the number go past 8,000. That could potentially give Tesla a 25% market share. Not 25% of the EV market. But 25% total market share for all cars in the country for Q3.

Ok, today Tesla Norway broke their quarterly record which was from Q1 2019 when the model 3 was introduced in Europe.

That previous Norwegian quarterly record was 7,180 (or thereabouts) cars. With seven six five four three weekdays to go Tesla is at 5,982 6,226 6,391 7.318, This is 1,192 948 787 332 behind 138 past the previous record. Todays sales were 303 239 162 457 166 Sunday + 302 today.

Now there are two more milestones that can be reached this month. Best month ever is March 2019 with 5,828 compared to this months 5,228. So 600 behind with three days to go.

If they get there, it is only another 82 needed to get to 8,000 for the quarter. If they have enough cars in the country it seems to be possible.

 

[Tyler34]

Ok, today Tesla Norway broke their quarterly record which was from Q1 2019 when the model 3 was introduced in Europe.

That previous Norwegian quarterly record was 7,180 (or thereabouts) cars. With seven six five four three weekdays to go Tesla is at 5,982 6,226 6,391 7.318, This is 1,192 948 787 332 behind 138 past the previous record. Todays sales were 303 239 162 457 166 Sunday + 302 today.

Now there are two more milestones that can be reached this month. Best month ever is March 2019 with 5,828 compared to this months 5,228. So 600 behind with three days to go.

If they get there, it is only another 82 needed to get to 8,000 for the quarter. If they have enough cars in the country it seems to be possible.

I love the way you've presented this by striking out the previous day's numbers, so I can spend more time looking at the ticker instead of going through 3 4 posts to see the trend.

 

[ZachF]

Q2 they delivered 1890 model S, assume most were the $130k plaid tho.

17,000 model S at an ASP of $111k is $1.9bn, or $1.6bn more than Q2 , or a 15% rise in automotive revenue.

Average margin was 28.4% so gross cash in the bank addition of around half a billion?

Q3 gonna be lit son

 

[Etna]

Wow. Based on VIN numbers alone (they could be stockpiling) but that could mean 17k+ deliveries of model S for Q3. Most of the reported higher VINS are from Cali area so they might be limited on what they can transport for deliveries... Take that with a grain of salt.

Going to bring the Tesla employees donuts when I pick up my S tomorrow.

Lots of Model S Plaid delivered in Canada from British Columbia (started a few days ago) to Quebec (starting tomorrow). There are special events with multiple deliveries at once.