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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Probably not enough housing/talent in Orlando

Tho a gigafactory in FL is probably a good idea since it's ranked #2 most EVs sold in the U.S and #3 in population behind Texas and California. Orlando also has 75 million visitors a year which means it's probably ranked highest for robotaxi shuttle from the airport to the Disney resorts. Lots of opportunities here for sure.
From just a work force... A large very intelligent work force is less than an hour East of Orlando; The Space Coast. And the Community and Private colleges have programs to supply workers.
 
At some point, the cash mountain will have to be dealt with. If there isn't 4+ more GFs in the pipeline, shareholders might start demanding something done with the cash in 2023.
Those cell factories look surprisingly spendy. The 5 billion euro figure for the Giga Berlin cell factory was an eye-opener (for 500k vehicles? 2 million vehicles?). And the supply chain probably could absorb a great deal of investment, if desired. For instance, at the mine or at the cathode factory.
 
From just a work force... A large very intelligent work force is less than an hour East of Orlando; The Space Coast. And the Community and Private colleges have programs to supply workers.
40k highly skilled workers is a huge ask for a mid sized city like Orlando. If they were to build giga FL, maybe between Tampa and Orlando.
 
Once they have perfected 4680 production, I would argue the very best thing Tesla could do to fulfill its mission is use the majority of its liquid capital and cashflow to rapidly build out 4680 cell production factories and supply chains as fast as possible, on every continent. I mean at a rate far faster than it’s vehicle manufacturing capacity increases. I’d much rather that than dividends/buybacks.

At last years shareholder meeting (battery day) they outlined an eventual 3TW output goal - would be good to see that goal substantially increased today with the aim of powering not just teslas products, but as many others as possible to transition the worlds energy production and storage to electric as quickly as possible.
 
So guys, you've been around a lot longer than I have in this stock market craziness.
On a macro-level how does issuing a dividend or buying stock back affect the price of TSLA specifically?

A dividend you can make a requirement of all shares having to be accounted for.....meaning any shares being naked-shorted have to be returned

A stock buy back doesn't have that requirement so naked shorting could continue, but Tesla would be shrinking the float every quarter. Making it more and more expensive to naked short. It would be continuous pressure on liquidity of shares.
 
So guys, you've been around a lot longer than I have in this stock market craziness.
On a macro-level how does issuing a dividend or buying stock back affect the price of TSLA specifically?
Usually positive but probably taken as a negative for Tesla as that is guiding for lower growth and they are running out of ideas for deploying capital.

People seem to be a little high on current profitability but there's a huge chance the cybertruck ramp up will be painful from a profitability standpoint.
 
you're dead wrong about this, for specific reasons that were discussed and witnessed in depth on this thread at the time, and have been discussed at length since. you're lacking important information and as a result making yourself look foolish.
As I understand this - what is being discussed is a 'stock dividend' and not simply a 'stock split' - that makes all the difference, no? Maybe that is the cause of any misunderstanding.
 
Agreed, I have been surprised by NPR's negative reporting on Tesla to date. Kai Rysdall in particular has been disappointing in this regard and has routinely questioned Tesla stock valuation, safety, culture, poked at Elon, etc. Doubt NPR is being intentionally malicious, probably just falling victim to outside FUD due to their lack ofsubject matter expertise. For example, reporting questioning the overall greenness of EVs due to batteries. There is probably a little of the all billionaires are evil liberal bent at play too. Even is this billionaire is trying to save the planet. Disappointing...
But he wasn’t a billionaire when he started Tesla nor when the Model S and X were first being produced. In fact he was quite literally broke for a number of years.

He only became a *stock* billionaire as Tesla and TSLA succeeded.

Anybody who spouts that nonsense is ignorant and lazy.
 
Today’s morning briefing from The Economist treats the start of Model Y production in Austin as a done deal. I know there have been rumors, but is it confirmed?

(No link because it’s from an email).

View attachment 718775
Do we have access to public records stating that they’ve passed all the required tests? Like has the fire marshal done his final inspection and the like?
 
A dividend you can make a requirement of all shares having to be accounted for.....meaning any shares being naked-shorted have to be returned

A stock buy back doesn't have that requirement so naked shorting could continue, but Tesla would be shrinking the float every quarter. Making it more and more expensive to naked short. It would be continuous pressure on liquidity of shares.

Observation - based on the last split .... the extreme rise in SP will be followed by a gradual dip, -- just like water the SP will again find it's own trading level.
The quick rise will be caused by naked shorting, but after fun&games are over and the ones with not enough money go MIA, the hyenas will be back doing their normal thing.

Have a plan ( & that includes selling at ATH, or selling CC at high IV and premium) - should this occur again. cheers!!

Long term - I don't think splits will have the intended impact. maybe more interest from Retail investors.
But man, it will be fun for the Gamma squeeze and maybe even news saying a few Hedgies went broke :)


+ with so much more to come, I don't care either way for the splits.
 
Usually positive but probably taken as a negative for Tesla as that is guiding for lower growth and they are running out of ideas for deploying capital.

People seem to be a little high on current profitability but there's a huge chance the cybertruck ramp up will be painful from a profitability standpoint.

I think Cybertruck ramp will be painful......but there's practically no way it has a significant impact on profits

Cybertruck will ramp in Q3-Q4 of 2022. By that time we'll have this going on :

- Giga China at full max production of Y + 3 with likely some additional production expansion
- Texas/Berlin both pumping out 100k Model Y's per quarter at least
- S/X production back up to 25-30k a quarter.
- FSD revenue recognition + FSD subscription growth

All those things will drive profits so high that Cybertruck could be 3X the cost profit-wise that Model 3 ramp was and it still wouldn't significantly drop profits. Though we also have to consider Semi ramp as well which will also be a small hit to profits.
 
Observation - based on the last split .... the extreme rise in SP will be followed by a gradual dip, -- just like water the SP will again find it's own trading level.
The quick rise will be caused by naked shorting, but after fun&games are over and the ones with not enough money go MIA, the hyenas will be back doing their normal thing.

Have a plan ( & that includes selling at ATH, or selling CC at high IV and premium) - should this occur again. cheers!!

Long term - I don't think splits will have the intended impact. maybe more interest from Retail investors.
But man, it will be fun for the Gamma squeeze and maybe even news saying a few Hedgies went broke :)

A really good plan would be to sell your LEAPS on the ride up as IV explodes and then wait on the downtrend and load back up on as far out LEAPS as possible.
 
Technically a split does not affect the fundamentals. However, with regards to naked shorting and the tricks MM's use to hold a stock down long term a split can most certainly unwind a spring which has been sprung too tightly, as they'd need to account for all of those naked shorts.

This happened last time TSLA split as the shorts needed to cover, so the stock went up, and it would very likely happen again, thus raising the share price despite the fact it technically shouldn't.

Understand? Because I hate to see people make embarrassing statements multiple times on a subject. 😉
No this is again false, a stock split does not unwind shorts but even if it did a short squeeze that happened a year ago doesn’t affect the stock price of a stock today unless the company issues shares at the squeezed high price to save themselves from bankruptcy (GameStop).

You are claiming that without the short squeeze a year ago Teslas price would be dramatically lower now than it is. That is absurd. Tesla’s current stock price is due to its fundamentals and future outlook, not the short term stock price movements of a year ago.

Anyhow you all can continue to ignore basic mathematics and insult me for telling you what you don’t want to hear, but that does not change the truth, and if you’re counting on huge profits from A stock split and telling that to others than you’re setting yourself up for disappointment at best.

Tesla stock may or may not go to the moon, but it will do so based off its own fundamentals, not whether a board of directors decides to cut each share in half. Good luck everyone
 
A really good plan would be to sell your LEAPS on the ride up as IV explodes and then wait on the downtrend and load back up on as far out LEAPS as possible.

I didn't plan it, but that's how it worked out for me the last time around. Selling jan 23 CC 1700's for 203 and closing for $20 within 6-9 mths - worked out like a charm.