Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[22522]

Just for context:
Hertz,pre-bankruptcy, leased cars to Uber drivers under terms structurally similar to those now being done with Teslas. They have done similar activities for decades. Perhaps Penske is better known for that business, but most popularly with business vehicles.Truly, their Tesla deals are only more promoted now because they're having 1/4 of their fleet transition to Tesla. Nearly all major vehicle rental companies also deal in full-service long term rentals, often structured as leases. That is not novel in any way, but the product they're supplying absolutely is novel!

Second, a few few people seem to think the Carvana deal with Hertz is about Tesla. In fact it is built to be a more efficient method, possibly lower cost, than
are traditional auctions and operating Hertz used car lots.

Third, many of us might not know that following bankruptcy Hertz new owners really want to make the business better in any way they can. Keep watching, it will continue to be exciting.

Fourth, Mark Fields, outside big corporate constraints is really retiring to his roots of success. His Mazda story is legendary. His Ford Europe one is only slightly less legendary. I am positively excited! Just think, this Tesla deal was his opening salvo.

I read a little on FIelds and recognition that the 929 was a marketing misstep in that the customers for that car would never be in a Mazda dealership. (empty set sales).

But when the Ford executives caravanned up to Google headquarters in a parade of SUVs, it seemed tone deaf. And the deal went south.

So I think he knows the right things to do, believes in showing off the value proposition that his team brings, but:

1. can be susceptible to bad advice
2. can speak to customers as if they are Wall Street analysts,

The Wall Street speak (out of habit) helps customers know that he does not care about them. This is like the Mark Fields Model T oil stain, as it hurts demand.

Usually if you take someone with his skills, they can fix this if they can listen.
So brilliant guy, does the right things, tone deafness not sufficiently compensated for by the people around him.

Need to hear a little more customer focus.

 

[CitizenKane]

So now Uber will be Tesla. How long before Waymo?

 

[Lessmog]

So now Uber will be Tesla. How long before Waymo?

Nah. Polestar.

 

[lafrisbee]

I agree. Taxing unrealized gains is insanity. If the tax is indeed based on the price at the end of the calendar year minus the price at the beginning, what would stop TSLAQ (or the US government, same thing at this point…) from artificially increasing the stock price in the last week of December and then crashing it in the first week of January? Rinse and repeat every year. I don’t want to get political, but remember the days when people were screaming from the rooftops how good Biden would be for Tesla….

Edit: I wonder if the government will pay Elon in the event of unrealized capital losses?

the two prices would be the SAME price. Correct?

 

[2daMoon]

I know people like this saying. Basically from Thatcher and was made what 40 years ago. Still hasnt come true. I dont like the idea of unrealized capital gains. I think better to get rid of Step Up Basis and restrict ultra wealthy getting around sale of assets by taking very low or no interest loans. I wonder how Elon would think a UBI would be paid for.

Elon and Tony Seba have been clear showing how renewable energy implementation will reduce the cost of energy to practically zero.

Because the cost of energy is a significant part of the cost of everything sold, this energy transformation will be how funding for UBI will be much easier to accomplish.

 

[mars_or_bust]

Dem Dem’s floating the idea of a tax on unrealized capital gains for billionaires. Elon tweeted:



View attachment 726399

Elon was referencing Maggie

 

[PokerFJÆS]

I agree. Taxing unrealized gains is insanity. If the tax is indeed based on the price at the end of the calendar year minus the price at the beginning, what would stop TSLAQ (or the US government, same thing at this point…) from artificially increasing the stock price in the last week of December and then crashing it in the first week of January? Rinse and repeat every year. I don’t want to get political, but remember the days when people were screaming from the rooftops how good Biden would be for Tesla….

Edit: I wonder if the government will pay Elon in the event of unrealized capital losses?

Whatever happens to the US tax code, stockholders outside the US also buy and sell. If TSLAQ would run up the price in December and crash it in January, and US stockholders could not sell, it’s likely stockholders in some other jurisdictions will frontrun TSLAQ by buying in November, sell late December, and rebuy in January, making the effect smaller is not zero.

 

[mars_or_bust]

In Belgium’s millionaire tax, this is taken care of by calculating the average value of every quarter.

Probably a reason why Belgium has, among other, a relatively small amount of unicorn companies. One needs to be able to get very rich to form very large companies.

 

[The Accountant]

It Really Is Different This Time
I am often too focused on quarterly results that I fail to see what the annual numbers reveal.
When we hit all-time highs in January, Tesla had just delivered its first fiscal annual profit.
GAAP earnings came in at $721m for 2020. An annual profit was a huge achievement for Tesla.
The company was turning the corner but still had more to prove.

But this time . . . . oh this time . . .the numbers have gone Plaid.
The $5.2B in earnings that I expect for 2021, dwarf the 2020 number. Not many companies suddenly grow earnings that quickly.
As we hit all-time highs again, the financial results now have many new investors realizing that Tesla is for real with potential to run much higher.
Performance will continue to amaze. In 2022 I expect GAAP earnings of at least $12B.

 

[Gigapress]

I motion for a moratorium on political wealth tax discussions in this thread.

First of all, it is unlikely to affect TSLA much if implemented.

Besides this, the constitutionality of the proposed tax is highly questionable because the US Constitution says that federal taxes must be evenly apportioned among the States based on population, although there is an amendment that allows federal taxes on any form of income without apportionment. To assert that unrealized capital gains are income is a major stretch, especially when realized capital gains, corporate earnings and dividends are all already federally taxed. Thus, this appears to me to be political theater so the politicians can look like they're being tough on wealth inequality to avoid discussing closure of actual billionaire-accessible loopholes in the US tax laws.

 

[Sofie]

Elon was referencing Maggie

View attachment 726413

When will we know if this has/hasn’t been passed? Also, how would it affect us if it does pass?

 

[22522]

It Really Is Different This Time
I am often too focused on quarterly results that I fail to see what the annual numbers reveal.
When we hit all-time highs in January, Tesla had just delivered its first fiscal annual profit.
GAAP earnings came in at $721m for 2020. An annual profit was a huge achievement for Tesla.
The company was turning the corner but still had more to prove.

View attachment 726410

But this time . . . . oh this time . . .the numbers have gone Plaid.
The $5.2B in earnings that I expect for 2021, dwarf the 2020 number. Not many companies suddenly grow earnings that quickly.
As we hit all-time highs again, the financial results now have many new investors realizing that Tesla is for real with potential to run much higher.
Performance will continue to amaze. In 2022 I expect GAAP earnings of at least $12B.

View attachment 726411

It is one of those cross over things. Car makers are held hostage by the volumes they have to sell to stay above break even.

Elon is rare in that he knows the car has to be good. Often you get someone with a "Cheap" metric that insults the customer and kills real demand (body by Fisher). Then games start.

I keep wondering if the Giga Press castings can be used as heat sinks for dump resistors that eliminate the mechanical braking cost and maintenance from the $25K car completely...

 

[jbcarioca]

...

Need to hear a little more customer focus.

First the Mazda Luce was a high margin success for them, later the Sentia equally profitable but less volume. Both were badged 929 in North America only. The critics were NA-centric.
The Ford/Google deals have mimicked quite a number of others. It's hard to describe that as an objective misstep.
On balance everyone I have met who's lived through some fo those years do not share the 'tone deaf' view. However he is quite notable for his willingness to promote his own views. That worked well until he got to Dearborn. Then the traditionalists told stories, created problems and were impeding much of his activity.
That is unsurprising confirmation that Ford CEO was not a good idea for him.

At Hertz with sold backing he will do very well, IMO. He already is. The probable opponents there are gone.

The future fo Tesla with them will quite likely be a major benefit for both sides and both customer sets. We shall see.
NOTE: From 1995-2002 I was spending most of my time working with a different Japanese OEM, so saw Fields work quite often. He arrived around mid-1999 in my awareness as others noticed him. He was not the grandstand Carlos Ghosn type. He did generate opposition, but also firm support. Later, working with a EU-based OEM and a major auto financing group I saw him at Ford Europe. My opinions are my own and have zero influence from other people's opinions. Hence I do not suggest that my views are in any way representative. Further, on October 7 HTZZ became a new pick for me, my most speculative one in years. So far I'm not disappointed. It's been less than a month and the shares are not very liquid, nor should they be.

 

[NicoV]

Probably a reason why Belgium has, among other, a relatively small amount of unicorn companies. One needs to be able to get very rich to form very large companies.

It’s only 0.15%, and only from this year on. Since there’s no capital gains tax, we should be full of unicorns with that logic.
And the millionaire tax is only applicable to portfolios at a broker, not for companies you own.
Now that I think of it, all of Elon’s tax problems can be solved by relocating to Belgium.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

It Really Is Different This Time
I am often too focused on quarterly results that I fail to see what the annual numbers reveal.
When we hit all-time highs in January, Tesla had just delivered its first fiscal annual profit.
GAAP earnings came in at $721m for 2020. An annual profit was a huge achievement for Tesla.
The company was turning the corner but still had more to prove.

View attachment 726410

But this time . . . . oh this time . . .the numbers have gone Plaid.
The $5.2B in earnings that I expect for 2021, dwarf the 2020 number. Not many companies suddenly grow earnings that quickly.
As we hit all-time highs again, the financial results now have many new investors realizing that Tesla is for real with potential to run much higher.
Performance will continue to amaze. In 2022 I expect GAAP earnings of at least $12B.

View attachment 726411

2022 I honestly have no clue what happens with the stock, except that I know we'll be materially higher than 1,000. Could truly see some huge rallies. Not 2020 level rallies percentage wise of course, but in terms of amount of the moves dollar wise could be pretty remarkable. If Tesla fully executes combined with major FOMO hype setting in towards mid/late 2022, I could see a $2,000 share price being hit.

 

[mars_or_bust]

When will we know if this has/hasn’t been passed? Also, how would it affect us if it does pass?

It seems it is dead, killed by Joe Manchin

I honestly think, and that is why this is a relevant topic for this thread, that if it did get passed, the stock would tank, as Elon would have to sell about 20% of his stock, i.e. about 5% of the TSLA float (Amazon and many other stocks would for similar reasons also likely crater).

But it looks that it will not go through

 

[mars_or_bust]

It’s only 0.15%, and only from this year on. Since there’s no capital gains tax, we should be full of unicorns with that logic.
And the millionaire tax is only applicable to portfolios at a broker, not for companies you own.
Now that I think of it, all of Elon’s tax problems can be solved by relocating to Belgium.

OK, thanks for the info, was wrong

 

[BitJam]

Elon is still very into car/battery manufacturing. With Giga Austin and Giga Berlin in pre-production modes, Elon will not just let it roll while focusing only on Space, etc.

I agree! Also FSD. He's in the loop and tweeting about it. Maybe after 4680s ramp up and Austin and Berlin ramp up and FSD becomes a compelling value proposition. But then there is still the Cybertruck, the Semi, and the 25K. Elon was tweeting about using LFP batteries in the SR+ which may have triggered the large purchase by Hertz. Tesla also has to be very careful now with the US regulators. This is not a good time for Elon to delegate his high level work at Tesla.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Probably a reason why Belgium has, among other, a relatively small amount of unicorn companies. One needs to be able to get very rich to form very large companies.

Outside of the US and China, Belgium has just as many unicorn companies per capita as every other country. More than the vast majority.

Funny this board used to be a mix of libertarians and liberal idealists who might champion logical things like universal healthcare. Now it feels a bit more.......Florida-ish. Maybe it's just the OT posters lean that way.

 

[winfield100]

Funny how the S-curve works, even here we weren't quite ready to flip the switch to being mainstream. Now within 12 months you can probably select an EV-only Uber option nationwide in the US and a Tesla will show up. Maybe a year later and it's a robotaxi. We are there folks.

In my former life I negotiated procurement contracts between S&P100 corporate buyers and travel suppliers.

My favorite EV application idea has always been a hub-less car rental scheme for Oahu, Hawaii. Build out smart charging infrastructure so vacationers simply request an available car wherever they happen to be standing and are guided to the closest one. Meanwhile, the car sits there soaking up cheap excess solar/wind supply and could even be feeding back to the grid for balance or at night when they're not in demand. This might be the next type of thing Hertz could explore. I know for a fact that Avis was looking into this type of product with Waymo a few years ago, and I assume has since dropped it.

@TheTalkingMule
at first glance, this is eerily similar to the little electric scooters that you see zipping around cities, picked up and dropped off most anywhere, just scaled up.

the model is already proven to work, next stepup, cars it seems