Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[shrspeedblade]

Since a ride pulled me down there this morning I cruised through Fremont today and by the Tesla factory; lots of activity going on despite it being a Sunday with loaded trucks leaving, trucks loading up, and plenty still waiting nearby on Kato road nearby. Had autopilot on but didn't take pictures as I'm not quite that irresponsible and if you don't believe me then well.

Got me thinking so as I headed North and home I cruised by the Richmond rail yards where a big storage lot is and saw this:

What you see is: nothing. Nothing where in late June last year this lot was stuffed with Model 3s before the damn burst in 3rd quarter. The rail yard across the way was empty of Teslas as well where several times I've seen them prepping for transport. So not sure what the heck they're doing with them since evidently they're not going through pier 50 right now and off to our European and Chinese friends.

Come to think of it, the water level in the bay did look a bit high today. Occam's razor says either the tide was in or there are thousands of new Teslas sitting at the bottom!

/S

 

[TNEVol]

I don't think this is how it works. The sur-reply is the end of it. The SEC doesn't get another filing. Even if hey asked for one, I'm pretty sure the judge won't grant it. If Elon's lawyers ask for an evidentiary hearing I expect the judge will grant it, and would have granted such a request by the SEC. My belief is that the judge really doesn't have a dog in this fight and is going to let everyone have their say before she dons her robe as "the decider."

Your right. There will be no more briefs.

 

[sundaymorning]

Looks like the model Y will sell pretty well when stacked against cars in its class.

Tesla Model Y Crushes "Premium" Fossil SUV Coupes | CleanTechnica

 

[sundaymorning]

Since a ride pulled me down there this morning I cruised through Fremont today and by the Tesla factory; lots of activity going on despite it being a Sunday with loaded trucks leaving, trucks loading up, and plenty still waiting nearby on Kato road nearby. Had autopilot on but didn't take pictures as I'm not quite that irresponsible and if you don't believe me then well, kiss my ass.

Got me thinking so as I headed North and home I cruised by the Richmond rail yards where a big storage lot is and saw this:
View attachment 389961
What you see is: nothing. Nothing where in late June last year this lot was stuffed with Model 3s before the damn burst in 3rd quarter. The rail yard across the way was empty of Teslas as well where several times I've seen them prepping for transport. So not sure what the heck they're doing with them since evidently they're not going through pier 50 right now and off to our European and Chinese friends.

Come to think of it, the water level in the bay did look a bit high today. Occam's razor says either the tide was in or there are thousands of new Teslas sitting at the bottom!

The picture you posted looks like an abandoned field somewhere in the Midwest. Stop trolling.

 

[dc_h]

The picture you posted looks like an abandoned field somewhere in the Midwest. Stop trolling.

Looks like Richmond to me. I think all cars are going directly by truck since the train delay is more expensive in cash flow than any shipping savings are worth.

 

[shrspeedblade]

The picture you posted looks like an abandoned field somewhere in the Midwest. Stop trolling.

Since you evidently need it:

/S
(and if you'd like, go look at google maps streetview of Canal blvd just south of Seacliff Dr in Richmond, CA. Psst....they're selling them all. shhhhhh!)

 

[Toumal]

Got me thinking so as I headed North and home I cruised by the Richmond rail yards where a big storage lot is and saw this:
View attachment 389961
What you see is: nothing. Nothing where in late June last year this lot was stuffed with Model 3s before the damn burst in 3rd quarter.

This only proves the shorts are right and all those Model 3 cars were fake and never existed in the first place.

Guess I'll drive to work in a lie today.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Really bothered me that even in this seeeminglu positive article, they used a supercharger map for a few years ago showing only a small percentage of the current coverage. Geesh, media can’t even get it right when they seemingly want to write a positive article....

Ok, so I took another look at it and the pic looks like it’s supposed to be a video, maybe showing the growth of the network?? I can’t get it to play though....

Rule No1: the media is lazy. This is why you have to make ready-to-eat bite sized portions for them if you want to control the narrative. Model Y launch had a PR article and 3 stock photos under the press section so was sort of ok. But the V3 launch and even SR was not very well executed.

Elon is a great asset for marketing but they could still use a proper PR team.

 

[neroden]

How did the bear raid bankrupt solar city? You mean by making the stock worthless, which kept them from being able to do another successful stock offering for more cash for working capital? Sorry stupid question, I'm new to investing.

SolarCity was basically running a bank.

They leased solar panels to people for 20 or 30 years (I don't remember exactly) with zero money down, giving them an income stream over 20-30 years. They then borrowed short-term (like, 5 year bonds) and used the money to buy and install the panels. Just like a bank issuing 30-year mortgage loans to buy houses, and then financing the house purchase with depositors' money in 1-year CDs.

The problem was that SolarCity, like a bank, had to refinance those short-term borrowings over and over again. Because of the bear-raider disinformation, it became harder and harder for them to borrow -- they were paying higher and higher interest rates. Wall Street was unwilling to refinance; they went directly to their fans with "Solar Bonds", but even those they had to offer high rates. This is a bank run.

 

[neroden]

S
So while Elon gave a giant FU to the bears when he acquired Solarcity (and thus depriving the bears of a bigger payday), they have been making his life miserable since their short positions effectively got moved from Solarcity to Tesla during the acquisition. I don’t know enough about acquisition mechanics to know if the shorts had to close out their positions when Solarcity was acquired,

Oh, short positions in SCTY converted to short positions in TSLA, at $180. Which promptly shot up and hasn't been anywhere near $180 again. So they lost tons and tons of money. They had the choice of closing the positions out or throwing good money after bad... I guess they chose to throw good money after bad.

(If they'd shorted SCTY at its peak of $84, or even at $50, they could have still exited for a tidy profit. But somehow I suspect they shorted it down at $30.... which became $272 for TSLA...)

or whether they just decided to raid Tesla out of spite/malice/hatred of Elon for depriving them of their oh so smart, can’t lose, payday. Either way, that’s how Tesla acquired so many shorts betting against it.

And this matters since Tesla is NOT the kind of company that you normally mount a bear raid against. Financial companies are a lot more vulnerable. Having said that, as a growth company, Tesla does need a lot of capital to grow, and the bear raids of the last few years have effectively raised the cost of capital to Tesla. Not to the point of bankruptcy, but certainly to a meaningful, annoying extent. Elon appears to be on the cusp of having the last laugh however. 2019 should put to bed the “Tesla is running out of cash” meme.

So if you see Elon being a little bit touchy against the SEC and financial markets, it’s because he’s been in a multi year death struggle with parts of them.

Yep.

 

[neroden]

OT except for dangers of dichotomization like "are you a capitalist, yes or no?" Or "long or short?," etc. On statistical significance, this.

Scientists rise up against statistical significance

“How do statistics so often lead scientists to deny differences that those not educated in statistics can plainly see?”

Fuller explication of their position (for clarity).

“Let’s be clear about what must stop: we should never conclude there is ‘no difference’ or ‘no association’ just because a P value is larger than a threshold such as 0.05 or, equivalently, because a confidence interval includes zero. Neither should we conclude that two studies conflict because one had a statistically significant result and the other did not. These errors waste research efforts and misinform policy decisions.”

After analysis way beyond my comprehension one problem did emerge for my understanding.

“The trouble is human and cognitive more than it is statistical: bucketing results into ‘statistically significant’ and ‘statistically non-significant’ makes people think that the items assigned in that way are categorically different6–8. The same problems are likely to arise under any proposed statistical alternative that involves dichotomization, whether frequentist, Bayesian or otherwise.”

Finally, in conclusion they return to the start about the importance of intuition. And they offer solutions. About their suggestions they say: “People will spend less time with statistical software, and more time thinking.”

The trend in statistics over the last 30 years has been towards Bayesian methods, which don't use the concept of "statistical significance". They're good methods. Anyone going into statistics now should learn the Bayesian methods, and scientific papers should use Bayesian analysis to compare hypotheses.

 

[Buckminster]

Elon is a great asset for marketing but they could still use a proper PR team.

Yep, the Flint presentation was a new low (kindergarten putting on a presentation for nobody in particular with about 3 minutes preparation). Elon's lack of interest in preparing a snazzy presentation and then not delivering well has been refreshing and an antidote to the spin of modern marketing - all talk, no substance. However, I feel it has run its course now.

 

[neroden]

On topic for absolutely anything at this point, since it affects everything

Yes it is OT. Btw parliamentary systems and the US division of powers system are quite different. It makes sense for a prime minister to have to resign if they’ve lost confidence of the parliament as a whole since a prime minister has so much more legislative power than an American President. The US system is different and has worked and continues to work just fine.

It really, really does not work. Please look up the history of what happens when the President is at loggerheads with Congress (which has happened *repeatedly*). It causes severe governmental gridlock and dysfunction.

Every Presidential system other than the US has collapsed into dictatorship or violent revolution in much less than 200 years. Because gridlock is *not* an acceptable outcome -- people want a functioning government. The US is showing signs of collapsing the same way. Frankly, it almost did collapse the same way in the leadup to the Civil War, and came very close during both the 1910s and the early 1930s before FDR's election. Parliamentary systems are more durable because they *don't gridlock*. May has somehow managed to gridlock a parliamentary system, which is a horrible sort of negative accomplishment.

 

[neroden]

I was looking at Musk's subsequent statement, in Feb 2018 (Q4 conference call), where he said: "we expect to introduce the standard range Model 3 sometime probably the middle of this year is a rough, rough guess."

At the time, it seemed he was allowing for a later rollout with the "rough, rough guess," but I suppose one could argue that he was allowing for an earlier roll-out.

I think people were coaching him to give more pessimistic estimates (overpromise and underdeliver), something he's been very bad at doing... but seems to be getting better at doing lately.

 

[neroden]

Dammit, growth in Norway has gone linear (i.e. subexponential)! Hmmm. I will want to see updates to that chart because I'm trying to project the back half of the S curve.

 

[neroden]

Wait a minute - haven't you been claiming that Q4 sales (86,555 vehicles) were higher than the steady-state demand due to pull-forward demand from Jan-Mar of 2019?

No, I've been claiming that AMERICAN Q4 high-end-car sales were higher than steady-state AMERICAN demand.

There is a rest of the world, you know. Tesla is selling cars there now.

 

[Buckminster]

~8 days to production figures!
M3s could average 5k per week or 7k. Only a 40% spread....

 

[BBone]

Stupidly OT: But I could use some input to push me over the emotional edge. I have to decide by the end of the weekend. I'm meant to be taking delivery of a P3D. Already paid for, paperwork done, etc. But I just found a stupidly good deal on a P100D, not P100DL. I've been anti X and S due to the imminent refresh. But the deal is amazing, 30k off. Subjective AF but should I pull the trigger on the P100D or stick with the P3D? Its going to be a pain in the ass, but I'm confident I can get either deal done by quarters end. Just me and the wife, no kids. I mostly travel in straight lines. My portfolio (all TSLA) sadly does not.

i had the same decision last December. I had a prior S70D so I liked the size and wanted a sunroof. Wife wanted a motorized trunk release so that tipped the decision. Hindsight I think either choice would be a good choice. Go with your gut as that's what you really want.

 

[BBone]

They're not doing their jobs now.


It obviously is. Apparently the software team thinks that the priority is "fart mode", while the customers would just like their damn music player to work as well as a TAPE DECK.

This is really damn easy programming; it is off-the-shelf stuff; there is nothing hard about it.

This is my last word for now on the subject, but any further nonsense will get a disagree.

Whether it's routine or not is debatable. I think it's likely that many routine tasks in finite time means there's a prioritization amoung the dev and support engineers. Also someone (sorry don't have the prior name) mentioned that in the shops he's with that this is a good motivational tool to allow fun coding. I would think that is true as well So agree with you I'd rather have a better music player but there are reasons why fart mode made the list.

 

[neroden]

What I see is people complaining about SR white availability. I don't see many complaints about people not getting their LR AWD or Performance in the US. If you have links, I'd appreciate them, as a large number of complaints would indeed start to drill holes in my theory that demand for non-SRs in the US has dropped off more than would be expected simply by the tax credit pull-forward.

ALL white interiors seem to have been delayed, including Performance, AWD, and LR.

I do think that there was demand pullforward -- my model for demand pullforward says that it sucked up most of Jan and Feb US demand into December. (Which has a more substantial effect on Model S, FWIW.) There was deliberate production of inventory in 2018 to try to meet the remaining Jan/Feb US demand while the factory made nothing but Euro and China spec Model 3. Unfortunately, they didn't make enough white interior inventory.

White interiors started shipping again after US production resumed in March.

P.S. Yes, I have a model for demand pullforward in terms of months of pullforward based on the size of the expiring tax incentive. Effectively, I assume demand drops to near-zero for some number of months. The idea is that the larger the price increase, the further in advance people will buy the car to get the discount. We've had so many different incentives expire that I had enough evidence to develop a rough model, and it's pretty good. If the car's price doubles when the incentive goes away, it's 18 months of demand; if it goes up by 10%, it's 2 months of demand.