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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Has this been posted? If so, sorry about the duplicate.



Interesting if true-GM has an EV plant in Spring Hill, Ford is building a plant (battery and assy if I remember correctly) outside of Memphis and Nissan has the Smyrna plant, not sure if they are building EVs there though. Of course VW in Chattanooga.

ETA, also from the article:

So probably not a real credible source.
But seriously, Elon's tweet referenced in that "article" is from 2020. He was talking about Austin...

 

Rising Rates: An Advantage for Tesla

Why The Noose is Tightening around Competition

Reasons:

  1. Ultra-Low Inventory
  2. Crazy Cheap & Fast Factory Construction
  3. R&D Frugality
  4. Trillion-Dollar Market Cap
The fundamental business model for a manufacturing company is one of high capital costs, low variable costs, and mass production. The success of this business model heavily depends on high production volume, reasonably strong gross margins, and acceptable cost of capital. So what happens when a manufacturing market that--except for a single dominant firm--already faces declining production volume, declining gross margins (prior to COVID restricting supply temporarily and driving prices higher), onerous debt loads, and massive investment needs looming, suddenly faces higher interest rates too?

"You never know who's swimming naked until the tide goes out." - Warren Buffett


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This is not financial advice and I'm not a professional financial advisor, but it is my real opinion.

1. Ultra-Low Inventory

See my prior post for more details on Tesla's incredible inventory situation. Here, I want to highlight the parts relevant to interest rates: speed and deleting the warehouse from the factory design.

Speed of Inventory Turnover
Velocity of the value conversion from supply chain purchasing to final sale makes Tesla disproportionally less vulnerable to interest rate increases than competitors because they turn over cash more quickly. Read here on why Cash Conversion Cycle matters.

In one extreme, if Tesla's cost of capital were at 0% annual interest, then carrying excess inventory would not have any opportunity cost of capital. Basically, they would not have any interest cost from lag time between paying for supplies and earning revenue from the customer at final sale time. This is similar to how a retail store has to pay to purchase each item in their stock well before a customer actually pays for it. The retail industry pays close attention to their average cash conversion cycle time because in their industry it's crucial because they are primarily inventory management specialists.

In the real world where interest is greater than zero, inventory does carry this cost in direct proportion to the price of buying the inventory. Thus Tesla, by carrying drastically less inventory across the whole value chain than competitors carry, economically gains a competitive advantage from an interest rate increase. Plus, as Elon has mentioned on multiple investor conference calls, the faster Tesla grows volume the better their capital efficiency, because typically they have contracts with suppliers providing 90-days to pay for orders. Explosive growth basically means that interest rates are even less relevant to inventory carrying costs for Tesla.

How big is this advantage? Bear in mind, this value chain analysis includes dealership inventory because Tesla handles its own distribution and marketing. and this is a big portion of the overall economics. According to the 2021 mid-year report of the National Automotive Dealer's Association (NADA) , in the USA alone dealership new car inventory was 1.4 million vehicles, or roughly $56 billion worth at $40k average selling price with their typical 0% margin on the primary sale. The NADA data shows this is 28 days of inventory. And this is actually a record low; normally they carry triple this amount. For them, this decline in inventory is severely hurting their customer satisfaction due to often not having in stock what a given customer wants. Plus, people feel like they're being unjustly price gouged. In contrast, according to the Q4 report, Tesla has only 4 days worth of sales in inventory these days. Tesla wins by 7 times! But wait! That's counting all of Tesla's inventory including cars in transit to the customers, while the 28 days of sales is just for dealership inventory. So really, on inventory carried relative to their sales volume, Tesla is probably winning by a full order of magnitude.

From an economic theory standpoint, in an efficient market it doesn't matter whether the inventory sits on the balance sheet of Ford or their independent dealers, because this cost and risk is already accounted for in negotiation of terms and prices between the two parties and the ownership rights are mostly just nominal without any real influence on the final outcome. The real world isn't this idealized but it's close enough to being true for this rough analysis.

Bottom Line: Tesla's direct-to-consumer online ordering sales system approach shines more when interest rates rise.

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The Best Warehouse is No Warehouse
As discussed in my inventory post linked above, Tesla's amazing inventory management also mitigates the harm of rate raises because it means their business model eliminates the typical capital costs of a factory warehouse and its associated land and equipment.

It's one less thing they need to spend money on up front that isn't directly part of the cost of producing a car.

2. Crazy Cheap & Fast Factory Construction
As all of us here know, Tesla has proven capable of building massive, cutting-edge, efficient factories for just a few billion dollars apiece for each million units' worth of annual production capacity. And they do it so quickly that it takes less than two years for the investment to start paying big dividends.

Combining these two factors yields incredible financial returns. Ron Baron, billionaire TSLA investor, estimated a couple years ago based on Baron Capital's research that the first-phase construction of Giga Shanghai was so cheap that it gave an effective 250% annual ROI (not a typo: 250%). Who even cares about interest rates at that point? Subtracting a couple percentage points from a 250% annual return is absolutely negligible. When your business shows such ludicrous profitability on core operations, you're too busy swimming in your profits and trying to scale faster to give a crap about the vicissitudes of the larger finance world.

In contrast, consider the impact this has on the financially endangered Lagacy Auto companies. They need to make enormous investments in retooling for EVs with economics that were already challenging back when borrowing rates were still at rock bottom; they were already going to be straining to get a decent return on these investments. The problem is, they all scoffed at EVs for so long and took so long to get started that now they have to sloppily rush into it having no idea what they're doing. Projects like Ford's planned new Blue Oval EV complex or Volkswagen's overhaul of their Wolfsburg plant are much more exquisitely sensitive to the cost of capital than anything in Tesla's car division. Suppose for the sake of argument that they were originally expecting an 8% annual ROI. If their capital costs then increase by 3%, then their actual ROI would drop to 8 - 3 = 5% per year equivalent. That's huge. Over 20 years, 5% annual returns gives a 170% ROI, whereas 8% gives a 370% ROI. That's just one scenario but it serves to demonstrate how much a tightening global money supply can crush the economic performance of weak investments while ultra-strong investments don't even flinch.

3. R&D Frugality
Tesla has ridiculously efficient research and development operations. Sandy Munro once said that Tesla has "Navy SEAL engineers". They are elite, they are motivated and they work like dogs to move mountains with small teams. They only spent $2.6 billion in R&D in all of 2021.

Let that sink in. All the technological advancement of this entire enterprise last year cost a grand total of $2.6 billion. That tiny budget supports a diverse and outrageously audacious technology development portfolio including, but far from limited to:
  • Autonomous driving
  • Dojo
  • FSD computer V4
  • Manufacturing continuous improvement (thousands of little optimizations)
  • Megapacks
  • HVAC (vehicles and buildings)
  • Lean construction
  • Autobidder
  • Solar roof
  • Active safety vehicle crash safety software based on simulations, data from massive fleet learning, and OTA updates
  • 4680 batteries
  • Gigacasting (partnered with IDRA)
  • Cybertruck
  • Semi
  • Superchargers
  • Motors
  • Mining
  • Recycling

How the f#$% is this even real? There aren't enough superlatives to describe this. Tesla doesn't even crack the top 50 in the global R&D spending ranking, yet they are the most spectacularly productive technology lab in the whole world. Once I found an early Tesla business strategy executive slide deck from circa-2006 that said "Second place should need a telescope to see us." Well, they did it.

This also illustrates how much they truly have integrated innovation and continuous improvement into operations instead of outsourcing it all to external support groups. It also illustrates the advantage of being able to essentially pool resources with SpaceX.

Bringing this back to interest rates, we can see that just like with gigafactory construction, Tesla's return on investment on R&D spending is so spectacular that rising rates won't make any dent in the returns. Meanwhile, companies like VW Group that spend $15 billion per year for barely any results will see their R&D ROI wither on the vine, unless they step up their game fast enough.

4. Trillion-dollar Market Cap
A higher market valuation of TSLA equity opens up multiple avenues for cheaper cash acquisition if needed. Notably, they can do an equity offering with less dilution for existing shareholders. You know what's even better? If I remember correctly, in the past Tesla's announcement of an equity sale has actually resulted in an increase in the stock price, implying a cost of capital so low it's sometimes negative.

No other competitor has this. If they need cash, they have to sell equity at a low price to unenthusiastic investors or bite the cost of loans/bonds at higher interest rates than last year.
 
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Another Giga Berlin permit thing; I'm certain many of you are in for a disappointment once the construction permit is actually granted, as @avoigt mentioned in this video (which is defiinitely worth watching entirely), there is most likely a few more weeks of waiting until the production permit is granted. Don't be surprised when this happens.

PS: Yes, I know Alex already posted this in this thread, but from the posts I'm reading here it still seems like many here are expecting the permit to mean immediate production start.
 
On Jan 26, 2021, Artful Dodger wrote about the latest round of TSLA hell:

IMO, there are 2 factors currently keeping shortz from capitulating:
  1. Q1 is traditionally Tesla's weakest quarter:
    1. 2018 - Production 'hell'
    2. 2019 - Logistics/Delivery 'hell'
    3. 2020 - shortzes 'rescued' by covid
    4. 2021 - What is in store for Tesla?
    5. MiC Model Y is being delivered now
    6. Model S/X refresh is imminent
    7. Billion-dollar FCF from Q4 2020
    8. $1.8B Valuation Allowance to be claimed
    9. First-ever Annual Profit
    10. 2021 Production Guidance
    11. FSD Beta momentum builds
    12. continued buying interest from Benchmark Funds
    13. Rating Agencies upgrades to "Investment Grade"
    14. FED money pouring into TSLA bonds
  2. Analysts fail to understand Tesla's Bty Manufacturing plan:
    1. Analysts project linear growth to 5M veh/yr by 2030
    2. Tesla plans exponential growth to 20M veh/yr by 2030
    3. Analysts didn't "read my memo" posted after Bty Day (more later)
    4. Tesla will build at least 1 factory that builds the tooling required to build battery factories (possibly 1 per continent)
    5. think coke bottlling plant: those machines come from somewhere
    6. this is Elon's "Machine that build the Machine"
    7. 'Snap, Crackle, Pop' (steepening the curve in Physics speak)
Therefore:
  • Tesla will grow (and prosper)
  • shortzes will short (and be crushed).
Cheers!

Well folks, our little tribe is now well into our 5th year since the advent of Model 3 production in Fremont. Having come through this latest Plague on our House, this is an appropriate time to update the Canonical List of TLSA Annual Penance™:
  • 2018- "Production Hell"
  • 2019- "Logistics Hell"
  • 2020- "Covid Hell"
  • 2021- "Hell hath no Burry"
  • 2022- "War is Hell"
So then, what will next year bring? Frogs? Locusts? Smaug? And more importantly, are we half-way there yet?! What will 2027 be like? ;)

Cheers to the Longs!
 
So my open buy order of 715 got filled today at open for 703.xx on average for another 50 shares. It was meant to be of any sudden crash for whatever reason, but hey... I ain't complaining.

A friend of mine asked me this morning about how I felt the recent drop on TSLA price as well as "the competition is coming" argument by so many Tesla haters (or just TSLAQ IMO). I replied to him and thought I'd share with our fellow TSLA HODLers here.

I'm a big fan of Simon Sinek's The Infinite Game, which basically lays out the model of a perfect company worth my investment.

And as far as I can see, there is no better company out there that fits that Infinite Game model than TSLA.

TSLA never thrived on being the best. They thrived by being "better" every day. Being on top of the field is really the consequence of such a mentality.

Think when Porsche came up with the Taycan, when it one-upped the Model S to be the fastest EV sedan in the world.

What did Tesla do in response? They finally saw a worthy opponent that required more of their effort. In no time, Tesla sent a few prototypes to be tested at Nurburging. What I believed happened was that Tesla didn't actually plan such a prototype. But instead, seeing that there's a new challenger in town, they fitted the drivetrain (Plaid) that was originally intended for a new Roadster, MacGyvered onto a Model S and see what it can do.

Never in their mind was to settle... simply arguing that the Taycan was in a different price category and let it go.

And that is the mentality of a company playing the infinite game. It doesn't fear new competitors coming into the field. They cherish it. It is in their very mission statement for that to happen.

While other EV companies are too busy figuring out how to beat Tesla as we know it today. Tesla is working hard on how they can become "better" than the next one coming off the assembly line, which by all accounts and means, is the newest and "best" Tesla there is. This happens day in and day out. Tesla doesn't care if pushing something too overwhelmed out, it might jeopardize sales that people simply wait until the next big thing comes out of Tesla.

If you order a Tesla today, you can be assured that the one you are going to get, it's the "best" Tesla there is. And the one that's coming next week, it's going to be ever so slightly better than the one this week, and so on. I'm sure a company can take whatever a Tesla model can do today, best it somehow and claim it to be "the best" in one way or the other. However, the question is for how long? Tesla is working tirelessly on making improvements, both on the hardware and software front. Another company can come up with another EV that's better than any Tesla out there right now. And I'm glad that they are able to do that. But through relentless self-improvement, it'd be only a matter of time before Tesla catches up and surpass it. And as the "competition", what do you do? You can join Tesla in the endless effort to always improve your product, or be satisfied with what you have and stick to it.

There is one EV that's faster than Model S Plaid today, the Rimac Nevera. It smokes the Model S Plaid in 1/4 miles. However, how long can the Nevera keeps that feat? One day... a Tesla would be able to run the 1/4 miles as fast, if not faster, as the Nevera. I'm sure of that. It's not a question of if, but rather when.

So, going back to your question, what do I think about the recent price movement? Nothing unexpected really. There will always be ups and downs. But for as long as Tesla is doing things the way it's doing now, I believe it would one day recover and set another ATH in SP. A drop in SP just allows me to buy more. I only have so much money and can only make them so fast. For it to be coming down, just gives me opportunity to afford another share sooner. If it's always going up, then, any time is a good time to buy. But just takes more time for me to come up with the money.

As for all the competitors that are coming to the EV field to crush Tesla that some many Tesla haters dream of and that the day of seeing Tesla going down is finally coming, here's the thing... these so-called "Tesla haters" don't realize... that the day all carmakers come up with EV products better than Tesla in every measurement and Tesla goes down, Tesla actually fulfilled its very mission: "To accelerate the transition to sustainable energy". Thus, what they are waiting to see and what they cherish so badly is not the fall of Tesla, but rather when Tesla finally completes its mission.
 
All of this is true. But all of us knew that the week following that twitter poll we would be in for a rough ride, so I'm not sure how we can claim SEC leak after the fact when it was indeed Elon who telegraphed that he would be selling a large amount of stock in the last 1.5 months of the year.

This is the problem with speculating about unknown events. It's just as possible that Elon became aware of a leak by the SEC of his 10b5-1 sales plan, and that is what prompted his twitter poll. In chess, it's always move-counter-move. And we'll likely never know what really happened. Just like we won't know what the Saudi's promised for funding to take Tesla private.

Bottom line is who do you trust, Elon or the SEC? Personally, I've already decided who's the ethical actor in this drama, and who is the antagonist.
 
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Another Giga Berlin permit thing; I'm certain many of you are in for a disappointment once the construction permit is actually granted, as @avoigt mentioned in this video (which is defiinitely worth watching entirely), there is most likely a few more weeks of waiting until the production permit is granted. Don't be surprised when this happens.

PS: Yes, I know Alex already posted this in this thread, but from the posts I'm reading here it still seems like many here are expecting the permit to mean immediate production start.
Nah, at this point we are all Pavlovian trained to treat a granted Berlin permit only as a precondition for required never-ending future Berlin permits, in a Escherian and Kafkaesque manner, always converging, but never reaching the goal.
 
Tesla's Miraculously Minimal Inventory

Tesla these days is operating with extremely low inventory throughout their whole business, which is a majorly underappreciated advantage that multiplies the power of their other advantages.
Thank you for this write-up. As someone educated in Logistics and Supply Chain Management (Msc), Tesla is basically doing what is considered the (current) holy grail in manufacturing. Other automakers (e.g. Toyota and BMW) are definitely doing/trying the same things (have had the pleasure of seeing the factories as well as guest lectures etc.). However, Tesla is executing their strategy extremely well and is consistently improving upon it (Berlin/Texas will be even better). Being able to build the new factories from the ground-up with all this knowledge built-in (Shanghai was the first) is a huge advantage which is partly reflected in their margins. I am in my early thirties and this is my personal nr1 reason to invest and hodl the stock. My future children will read about the TPS. The T will not mean Toyota.
 
Shortly before midnight Pacific time. Although after listening to episode #70 it sounds like they may not have a Friday episode this week. If that's the case they may have Elon on next week, or just move on to episode #71 and then whenever Elon finally comes on they'll call that #69.
Back to numerology we go, sigh.
 
But shed a tear for all the bats and ant hills that were crushed under the bootheel of industry in Texas. That's got to be worth something, right?

/S
To be perfectly honest, BCI (Bat Conservation International) is based in Texas. But, fire ants are a scourge and are routinely killed not quite as fast as they propagate.

Neither of which got in the way of building Tesla TeraTexas. 👍
 
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Should be noted that Austin won the race with a 6 month start handicap, while building a 4 times larger facility. A very bad look for Germany.

Combined with shutting down zero carbon nuke plants so they can be more dependent on fuel imports from a violent expansionist dictatorship, Germany is making a strong case to not invest there unless you really have to, unfortunately…
 
To be perfectly honest, BCI (Bat Conservation International) is based in Texas. But, fire ants are a scourge and are routinely killed not quite as fast as they propagate.

Neither of which got in the way of building Tesla TeraTexas. 👍
And visitors to Giga Texas who are outraged about the treatments of the bats can head on over to the Congress Avenue Bridge.
(edit: and the Stevie Ray Vaughan statue is nearby!)

And yeah, the Red Imported Fire Ants are an invasive species.
 
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