Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

How many shares did you pick up? Any one here buy today? Pretty quiet.

I'm glad you asked! I've been HODLing since Dec at 1150 SP. So far, last year was better.

 

[cricketman]

How many shares did you pick up? Any one here buy today? Pretty quiet.

Yes I just bought another 150 shares. I had to sell all my Amazon, Apple and Google. So I am all-in on Tesla now!

 

[Krugerrand]

This is a big concern of mine. Elon has become such a firebrand personality, that the possible pool of Tesla buyers seems to be shrinking rapidly - on both sides of the aisle.

I have to assume you’re not paying attention and/or just need to freak out for something to do.

Seriously? Buyers shrinking quickly? You haven’t a clue what you’re talking about. Demand is through the roof for Tesla and continues to expand.

 

[Ohmster]

I know that I do.

Just focus on the business, rather than the SP.

Is it growing?​

Is it finding ways to cut costs and increase revenue?​

Is there anything about the business itself that lends support to bailing on the stock?​

If the answers to these questions paint a rosy portrait of the future, why take the chance by selling to one day look back at what could have been if only I'd applied logic to counter emotional decision-making?

Yes. Yes. I agree. I do.

I’m just grumpy as hell like I stated. I thought I was brilliant adding 10% more chairs at 979. Now I feel like a dork.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Not sure I follow, the low stock price suggests to me that people don't like the uncertainty around TSLA at the moment. What does the stock price suggest to you?

Just like every other time that TSLA has been irrationally sold off, the stock price doesn't suggest anything other than Wall St's ability to achieve what they want. You really think genuine TSLA investors are selling here?

 

[MadScientist23]

How many shares did you pick up? Any one here buy today? Pretty quiet.

I wish i still had dry powder to buy today. I spent what I'm comfortable with on Monday.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I have to assume you’re not paying attention and/or just need to freak out for something to do.

Seriously? Buyers shrinking quickly? You haven’t a clue what you’re talking about. Demand is through the roof for Tesla and continues to expand.

I guess he missed the update that US delivery times for all models just got pushed out yet again the other day

Elon needs to offend some more people cause those delivery wait times aren't going down

 

[Speedr117]

Ah yes.....my favorite twitter poster who likes to think they know more about Tesla's internal plans and goals than Tesla themselves

Didn't you hear 4680's WAAAYYYYY behind schedule since Tesla is using them on the SR Model Y instead of the Perf. Heaven forbid.......that was actually the plan from the start

I must be dense. Who on Twitter?

 

[willow_hiller]

Not sure I follow, the low stock price suggests to me that people don't like the uncertainty around TSLA at the moment. What does the stock price suggest to you?

Illustrative poll by Dave:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1519681834732380160

At time of posting, 46.8% of voters (and 56.9% of those who didn't click "View Results) think Elon has been selling shares this week. I think if today comes and goes without a Form 4, that will eliminate a large source of uncertainty.

 

[Krugerrand]

What does the stock price suggest to you?

That there’s a lot of crooks and stupid people in the world. Same as last week. Will be the same tomorrow.

 

[gtrplyr1]

True, Tesla is much bigger than Elon. But every company needs a strong leader and I know of no other leader that could have navigated this company from low to high volume production as efficiently as Elon Musk and the team he has assembled and maintains. The share price went from $200-$400 up to it's current $4,100 per non-split adjusted share in less than the last 3 years. Anyone holding through the last three years has made a killing of 10x-20x and while it's due to the efforts of the entire team, do not under-estimate the contributions of the man guiding the process and making almost all the big strategic decisions.

I have no compassion for those complaining about Elon because they are so smart they are trading the stock or playing options and not getting the returns they hoped for. Go cry somewhere else.

Cheers to all TSLA longs who have held strong and will reap the benefits of the hard work and long hours of Elon and his entire team through this pandemic, right down to the janitors who maintain the factory and keep the lights on!

There are a lot of long term holders, including myself, that are not happy with Elon's behavior. Yes ... I understand how much it's gone up and I've been very fortunate to have ridden it up the whole way, adding rather than selling the position. I also think it's totally reasonable for SHARHOLDERS to question how the directors of a company act and if those actions are helping the share price or not. So, I don't consider it "crying" ....

My post was an honest answer to the poster wondering why we are down so much after a great earnings report .... I gave my opinion and I believe it to be accurate.

BTW, those people who maintain the factory along with every other employee of Tesla deserve to have a leader that puts the company and it's mission first .. I'm of the opinion that buying a controversial media platform does not do that.

Bottom line, shareholders have every right to be concerned about the behavior of the people entrusted to run it.

I'm still a long .... but I will admit to having Elon fatigue at this point and I don't believe I'm alone on this.

Cheers to the longs.

 

[bubb]

I guess I have no brain then. Normally I'd be buying at these levels but with the current market environment and the uncertainty about what Elon is doing I'm staying on the sidelines for now. The stock price suggests I'm not alone.

This macro environment is such a high wire act for even the "best" companies and TSLA had navigated it brilliantly until this week IMO. I'm not sure he could have picked a worse time to test the market with this deal and levering up. I swear my opinion is not at all influenced by my massively underwater short puts

In all seriousness, what a slap in the face for TSLA employees w/ their RSUs/options, they've been killing it lately only to get whipsawed because papa got bored with just 4 companies.

 

[JRP3]

You really think genuine TSLA investors are selling here?

I think some are not buying here, similar to myself. Simply put I can see the potential for further drops in the price. If I'm wrong and it goes up from here that's great, I don't mind that I "missed out", I still have plenty of shares.

 

[Gigapress]

This probably the most bizarre thing I've ever seen with this stock. Even factoring in the 2016-2018 years.

Never seen anything like it. To blow away earnings by that % and have your P/E way below it's all time low.

The amount of P/E compression in the matter of 3 months since Q4 earnings is flabbergasting. I believe we were trading in the upper 200 P/E range heading into Q4 earnings. Now…….113.

Tesla’s valuation has essentially been cut in half in 3 months.

Back in October after analysing Q3 earnings, I was already expecting the Berlin and Austin ramp with Battery Day tech to result in the biggest 2-year market cap increase of any company in the history of capitalism.

I still expect at least $20 billion earnings this year alone even without much help from the new factories. It's simple arithmetic that somehow the whole market is missing or ignoring.

This is my bear case (5th percentile outcome in my opinion):

1) Gross margin improvement trends will continue.

• Q3 already showed $15.4k per car without the price increases having been realized yet and with extraordinary cost pressure. Up $750 per car just since Q4. (If you want to count out the $300M extra ZEV credit windfall, call it the same as Q4 at around $14.5k)
• Model Y/S/X increasing share of the mix and proportionally less Model 3
• Shanghai and next-gen factory production increasing share of mix and proportionally less Fremont
• Shipping cost and 10% import tariff cost savings of about $10k per car guaranteed for every EU car sold from Berlin instead of Shanghai
• Cost efficiency generally improving, offset somewhat by commodities inflation

So, conservatively bump gross profit per car from $15.4k gross profit per car in Q1 to $17k average across the year as most of the volume will hit in late Q3 and Q4 when the March price increases have finally arrived.

2) 1.7 million deliveries

• 1 million Shanghai
• 0.5 million Fremont
• 0.2 million Berlin+Austin combined

3) Opex of $9B

1.7M * $17k - $9B = $20B earnings

Thanks to this Twitter drama, mobile charger scandal and macro collapse, I'm selling TSLA shares.

... to buy more 2023 and 2024 calls at 50% discount from a few months ago.

 

[hobbes]

Illustrative poll by Dave:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1519681834732380160

At time of posting, 46.8% of voter (and 56.9% of those who didn't click "View Results) think Elon has been selling shares this week. I think if today comes and goes without a Form 4, that will eliminate a large source of uncertainty.

I think you can also look at that from another perspective: If he has sold, the uncertainty has gone (we know he has sold), otherwise we´ll still be unsure if he is still going to sell later. Glass half full/empty type of thing...

 

[Krugerrand]

There are a lot of long term holders, including myself, that are not happy with Elon's behavior. Yes ... I understand how much it's gone up and I've been very fortunate to have ridden it up the whole way, adding rather than selling the position. I also think it's totally reasonable for SHARHOLDERS to question how the directors of a company act and if those actions are helping the share price or not. So, I don't consider it "crying" ....

My post was an honest answer to the poster wondering why we are down so much after a great earnings report .... I gave my opinion and I believe it to be accurate.

BTW, those people who maintain the factory along with every other employee of Tesla deserve to have a leader that puts the company and it's mission first .. I'm of the opinion that buying a controversial media platform does not do that.

Bottom line, shareholders have every right to be concerned about the behavior of the people entrusted to run it.

I'm still a long .... but I will admit to having Elon fatigue at this point and I don't believe I'm alone on this.

Cheers to the longs.

Oh, stop. The three other people you know that hold 10 shares each doesn’t make it a lot.

Long term investors have seen this movie before and they know exactly how it ends. Quit being overly dramatic.

 

[willow_hiller]

I think you can also look at that from another perspective: If he has sold, the uncertainty has gone (we know he has sold), otherwise we´ll still be unsure if he is still going to sell later. Glass half full/empty type of thing...

At least if we know he hasn't been selling, there are other forces at work capable of shoving the SP down 12% in a day. And personally I think a lot of those other forces just tend to coil the spring.

 

[ZachF]

Problem is that the public isnt split 50/50. Interesting I also saw a pretty mellow non confrontational liberal ask Elon about that tweet yesterday. Asked why is Elon seemingly only engaging with the right since this started happening. Well other than insults.

The public is about 1/3 split between left, right, and independent.

The above sentiment is why I think the left is sleepwalking into giant losses… they live in a bit of a bubble. A lot of them have barely left their houses because of COVID, nevermind their D+50 coastal urban area. Social media is also heavily biased left. There is multiple layers to this bubble.

I suspect Elon is engaging with the left less (and I say this as someone on the left side of independent) because the far left have the habit of being absolute histrionic a-holes to anyone who disagrees with them even slightly, even if they agree with most of what they are saying. Are you going to engage with someone who baselessly accuses you of white supremacy?

I don’t like one side getting too much power, one party states tend to not function well.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Tdoc didn't do well. Cathie Wood is just guessing at this point.

ARKK is down over 56% since she "loved the setup" last May.

She predicted 50% CAGR over the next five years just a couple weeks ago. Let's use $60 as the price. That would imply a $455 price of ARKK in five years. To get there now, they need a ~57.5% CAGR. For five years. It's basically unheard of in the world of active management. Hell, even Madoff "only" guaranteed 11% returns for his clients.

ARKK is down 70.5% from its ATH in February 2021. The S&P 500 is up 7.7% since then. That's an underperformance of SPY by more than 78% in just over 14 months.

 

[gtrplyr1]

Oh, stop. The three other people you know that hold 10 shares each doesn’t make it a lot.

Long term investors have seen this movie before and they know exactly how it ends. Quit being overly dramatic.

You have NO idea how many people I know or do not know.

I am a long term investor and I've seen this movie many times .... I lost over 1 million the other day in value .... I'm not being dramatic by stating that shareholders have a right to question the leadership of a company.

Grow up