Nice close to what could have been a really day.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Read Joe's comments. Seems that Austin is either at or close to 1,000/week production right now. I could see Austin averaging 1,500/week for Q3, which would bring it to just under 20,000 for Q3. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility to think they'll approach 2,000/week towards the end of Q3, so maybe 21,000-22,000
This is a good time to review Elon's recent remarks on FSD timeline and state of the Autopilot team. Two tidbits:
"I still think it's tracking for this year". And, "Tesla software/AI team is the best software team I've ever worked with. [...] They're outstanding. "
"I still think it's tracking for this year". And, "Tesla software/AI team is the best software team I've ever worked with. [...] They're outstanding. "
For once in a long time, MM's are actually showing up to protect the 700 Put wall. Pretty much all year, the trend has been for them to consistently protect the call wall by capping, but showed little support for keeping TSLA about Put walls.
I am though expecting some sort of bear raid on Monday/Tuesday to push TSLA down as much as possible before earnings.
Options and stocks have different settlement times. The problem in cash accounts is called a good faith violation when you buy stock, then sell the stock, and use those same funds to buy another stock before it has settled.
Let's see what they present at the next Ai day.
You are thinking about a general purpose "do everything" robot, rather than a robot trained for a specific task. Initially each task might be more like a separate app.
IMO many tasks are safer and less complex than driving a car, becuase the task always occurs in the same premapped location. The bot does need to explore to build maps and it may need to ask for help in classifying objects.
MANY people here have fireplaces in their living room. But often you are forbidden to use it extensively because of fine particulate matter in the smoke (making air-quality in the city bad FAST!).
So for them going to wood to save gas is a simple switch... especially if there is a massive gas-shortage.
But this is more fear-mongering than anything .. because i doubt tesla could switch to firewood even if they wanted ..
Yes, humanoid robots come with the expectation that they are generalized, otherwise what’s the point of all the complexity of a generalized hardware architecture? It would be more efficient to build a purposed built robot for specialized tasks, like is done now with industrial robots.
It would be very interesting indeed if you could build a generalized pre trained robot to do something as mundane as loading and unloading a dishwasher with all the various types of dishwashers and kitchenware in existence.
Thank goodness it was not another "Tesla Killer"
GM Sets Date for Its Mercedes-Benz Killer - TheStreet
The legacy carmaker is attacking the top of the top in the electric market.www.thestreet.com
View attachment 828559
Tesla to GM: Why don't you pick on someone your own size.
There is some chance that the structural pack, in particular these cell cans might be over engineered.
A viable path is improving the alloy to make a higher strenght stainless steel.
But those things are probably very low on the list of potential improvements.
They will start out doing a simple predefined job on a factory line.
For the dishwasher, the owner may need to help train the bot on their dishwasher the first time.
The expection that humanoid robots are generalized comes mainly from science fiction. Science fiction also assumes robots have emotions.
Tesla will make the best bot they can, mainly for internal use.
IIRC, they were putting line validation costs into R&D. Regardless, those costs should have been accounted for previously. In which case, these will be full positive cashflow with maybe some shifting from R&D (or wherever) to cost of goods, which would shift OpEx vs gross margin, but will not shift the bottom line resulting in full revenue recognition flow through (other than tax implications of R&D expense).
So ultimately similar to other inventory sales, but with a bonus quarterly paper profit due to reduction of the previously expensed line item.
Ok @The Accountant , now give the right answer.
I have talked a bit with Karpathy, very down to earth over the top nice guy. Don’t know him too well but will just paint a story based on public posts by him and what everyone knows.
He is a pretty young at his 35 years, born in Slovakia. Brilliant guy. Got a Phd(with all that means) at Stanford, at the time when deep learning took off. Being a very articulate he got the role to lead the course that many students around the world watched on youtube. He read so many papers he even did his own service to follow new papers more efficiently.
GitHub - karpathy/arxiv-sanity-preserver: Web interface for browsing, search and filtering recent arxiv submissions
Web interface for browsing, search and filtering recent arxiv submissions - karpathy/arxiv-sanity-preservergithub.com
After his Phd, he got a job at OpenAI as a scientist. One year later he joined Tesla, his first major job in the industry doing applied engineering with validation, shipping real products and all that mess. During the Model 3 ramp where everyone had to chip in he was down at the factory line, doing whatever he could like everyone else. He has done this for 5 years. Given his rockstar fame and the demand for top DL talent he was probably paid millions of dollars, plus the same in shares that has 10x since he joined. He is very likely set for life... Also he has a CV that is really impressive and can pretty much get any job he wants if he needs more money.
On his free time, he codes the GPT clone minGPT and other small hobby project to understand the latest devevelopment in AI and make it easier for amateurs to access the latest research. He even coded a bitcoin client from scratch just to understand crypto.
Like I said, he is 35years old and, as far as I know, single. When he takes his first holiday, he goes traveling around the world, meeting fellow AI researchers around the world. He also is a mostly vegan person, “90%+ vegan” and he thinks being vegan is one of the best way to reduce CO2.
So imagine a person like that. Likes to travel the world, has worked pretty damned hard and got to the top of his hiearchy, set for life with both cash and stocks. An academic at heart. Maybe he just wants to be free, travel when he wants, do the research when he wants, keep up with latest development in NLP, spend some time on health and do some dating. Heck even explore spirituality, psychadelics and all that stuff that people who travel around the world, are vegan, into crypto etc like to do.
Should he stay longer? He probably has pushed it ”just another year” a few times already. 5 years is a good number to call it quits. Until FSD is released? It has been next year for a few years now. Can he contribute more? He pretty much defined software 2.0 and made the only known large scale implementation of it. The system is set up, it works well. Now it’s time for the applied industry people to run the development from here.
So no, I don’t think we can infer that FSD is near or far away based on him leaving. He probably just wants to have a break, do what he loves and can afford to do and have some more time for the good stuff in life.
Above and quite a few other posts are excellent, and go deeper than just Karpathy's leave.
Here're some of his own words on why he stayed for 4+ years and eventually 5 years from his interview with his former colleague at OpenAI last year. It helps to understand why he's leaving now.
Let's be honest: not many people like to burn midnight oil or 3 am oil, much less so burning it regularly, and much much less so thriving on it. It was a grueling job even for Karpathy, no matter how much he loved/thrived on it. He's young at 35, but 5 years so close to that alien is like 5 dog years. He took a few months off to zoom out and re-evaluate the situation. He made the hard decision to part ways, which indicates that he still holds high regard to Tesla's FSD mission and he can step away to find his sweet spot for the next stage of his life and simultaneously, the mission stays on and thrives on.
Another way to look at it is the Steve vs Steve saga, i.e. Woz vs. Steve Jobs. A good percentage of people argue that Woz played more important role in early success of Apple, even today. I disagree strongly with that notion by looking at what each achieved after that early stage. While Wos was rare, Jobs was much more likely to find his next Woz than Woz find his next Jobs.
With my deep respect to people like Woz and particularly in the case of Tesla, JB, Jerome Guillen, Karpathy etc. intact, Steve Jobs to Apple and Elon Musk to Tesla are the real driving force to the stupendous success of each, due to their rare vision, uncanny ability to recognize and attract talents, and unusual level of persistence, etc. FSD (and further bots) is an exceedingly hard nut to crack, which requires exceedingly hard balls to do the job, which only people like Elon Musk have a realistic chance to assemble and to keep such ball cracking. I'm as optimistic as before.
This is hilarious phrasing and true. Started at tesla at 30, with 7 human years per dog year, right?
Andrej is actually 65 years old now. Let the man retire in peace.
Jordan says in his video that he believes the cell he has is not state of the art anymore and expects to see updated characteristics in the one he is buying from Munroe. Too bad this will take months as he said till we ge the results...
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Besides, they won't let them cut down the trees for firewood without completing a paper process that would take all Winter to get through.MANY people here have fireplaces in their living room. But often you are forbidden to use it extensively because of fine particulate matter in the smoke (making air-quality in the city bad FAST!).
So for them going to wood to save gas is a simple switch... especially if there is a massive gas-shortage.
But this is more fear-mongering than anything .. because i doubt tesla could switch to firewood even if they wanted ..
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