Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dm28997]

In the mean time: Axa adds a new dimension to FUD.
Showing fire of batteries without batteries in order to show the danger of batteries on fire.

Insurance company faked a Tesla battery fire to prove batteries catch fire

An insurance company wanted to prove that Tesla batteries catch on fire and performed a test without the battery. Yes, you read that right.

www.teslarati.com

They prefer insurance for gas vehicles?

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[ThisStockGood]

Ahem

Edit

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Ahem

Edit

You had to say something didn't you

 

[ThisStockGood]

You had to say something didn't you

 

[Singuy]

 

[unk45]

I'd be really curious to see the total volume of all vehicles sold at the 150-300k range in the world. Can't be that high. If all of the promises and concepts being floated right now actually come to market (huge assumption) then we are probably seeing a glut in the making.

Lucid Air/Sapphire 100-250k
Polestar 6 - 200k
EV Cadillac - 200-300k
Lincoln's EV teaser - (probably around 200)
Ferrari's upcoming EV
All of the oddballs like Fisker, Delorean etc.
And obviously Plaid at 130k and Roadster at 200-250k.

Looks like bad news for Lucid if most of the others come to market. These guys are trying to do what Tesla did 14 years ago, but back then Tesla had zero competition and did not have to compete with Tesla.


*looks at my own daily loss
**breaks out calculator

I think your portfolio is slightly larger than mine.

Unless you've sold shares at a loss, or traded options at a loss, you've lost nothing. Remember that a gain or loss only happens if you sell. Otherwise those changes are ephemeral and give ego gratification or not. That's all!

 

[CorneliusXX]

LMAO this Reuters article


I would love to see what analysis they did that gave an estimate of $400 billion estimated capital expenditures to get from here to 20 million cars per year.

Tesla in the last FOUR YEARS has spent a cumulative total of $15B in CapEx to get to today’s capacity.

From Q1 ‘20 thru Q1 ‘22, when Giga Berlin and Austin were being built and equipment was purchased and installed, Tesla’s total CapEx was $13B. Not all of that CapEx was used for these two factories, so $13B is roughly a maximum estimate for the cost.

Each of these factories (for the portions built now) should have at least 500k cars per year capacity once running at full speed. So it currently costs Tesla approximately $13B or less to get capacity for 1M vehicles per year.

Current factories alone should be able to do at least 3M cars per year once ramped without much further investment.

20M - 3M = 17M left to go

17M * $13B = $220B more investment required

Realistically this estimate is way too high because in addition to using the upper-bound cost estimate, it neglects that the expansions at existing sites will cost less, that Tesla will continue getting more efficient, and that the mass-market cars will be simpler. I think it’s probably going to take less than $100B investment. Reuters is way off.

Moreover, if a Tesla factory plans to include cell production of 100GWh/Yr like Austin then Tesla will get c.$4.5b a year in cell subsidies. So the US government gives Tesla a free factory every year or so for each factory Tesla builds.

 

[CorneliusXX]

The only fear that I have had that would cause Tesla to lose it's dominance, is that somehow their culture starts to change and deteriorate. This often happens when a company grows as outsiders bring their prior corporate cultures with them polluting the water. But I am comforted when I see videos like this and hear stories from former associates (including our very own @Discoducky). Tesla's number 1 competitive advantage is it's Culture and I'm confident it stays strong for many years to come.

I don't fear that while Elon is there. He's very good at making the tough decisions when needed.

 

[CorneliusXX]

More fun stats…

• In the first half of 2022, Tesla had as much net income as Honda’s trailing twelve month net income.
• Tesla already has more net income than GM, BMW, Honda, Ford, Volvo, SAIC, Stellantis, Hyundai, Nissan, and Mazda
  • Tesla in fourth place currently behind Toyota, Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz (who had an exceptionally good year but normally earns less than Tesla is earning now)

Then in Q1–or maybe even Q4–Tesla’s profits will vault them to the #1 spot to pass Toyota, despite Toyota having:

• 2x more revenue
• 5x more deliveries
• $4B spending for advertising and sales promotions
• 3x more spending for research and development
• A 69-year head start
• A much higher percentage of out-of-warranty vehicles in their fleet generating profits on replacement part sales

Tesla is the big boy now.

But Tesla's market cap is greater than all the other auto OEMs combined.......now we are about to prove why.

 

[Artful Dodger]

One final point Joe Justice made that I forgot to mention: Elon working in all these small engineering teams ("mobs" apparently) all day long, NOT in swanky meeting rooms watching presentations, either at SpaceX or Tesla. He is spreading his knowledge (and undoubtedly its a 2-way exchange) widely at the grassroots level throughout the teams. Daily.
I now understand that Key Man risk is much reduced from what I thought; the Collective should have absorbed a lot of Elon's unique individuality at this point
We are being assimilated.
Cheers to the Transition. Resistance, as they say, is futile.

Thank you for articulating this! And let me add that, former Tesla employees are diffusing into the rest of the Auto industry over time (ie: Alan Clarke moving to Ford in Feb 2022). These companies have a *chance* to compete (ie: BMW - NOT so much!)

Thus Elon's industrial methodology and practical engineering approach goes with these engineers. This also accelerates the transition to sustainable energy. Winning!

Chairs!

 

[EverettRuess]

I have been out hiking and biking the last several months. Took the picture below at Arches National forest in Utah.
As I traveled and got to see some of the beautiful natural world, I am reminded how much we all need to do to protect and conserve what we have.

As this relates to Tesla ..... I am also reminded how much work they have put in to help keep our planet livable.

p.s. I used Starlink to post this
View attachment 847466
Elon and Co. continue to be one of a few examples of "fighting the good fight"

I am proud to support them.

It's Arches National Park. Not a national forest

 

[Singuy]

So the most important thing coming from ONS' interview is that Elon is expecting 50% of all cars transitioning to EVs by 2030 WITHOUT any additional effort put into mining. This is based on the current trajectory he is seeing.

Also his master plan part 3 seems to be a very detailed explanation on supply chain/raw material scaling beyond current trajectory.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Interesting end to the day there.

Quite a battle. 8 consecutive large sell blocks to cause the drop. They really wanted that close below 275

 

[Ogre]

Ahem

Edit

Ahem

Edit!!

Ahem

EDIT !! !!

 

[Thumper]

Why the heavy volume today?

 

[Buckminster]

Moreover, if a Tesla factory plans to include cell production of 100GWh/Yr like Austin then Tesla will get c.$4.5b a year in cell subsidies. So the US government gives Tesla a free factory every year or so for each factory Tesla builds.

Tesla should get on and start 3 new GFs this year. Not worth the risk of planning permission, moving bats etc. More to gain than lose. Worst case they build all three and can't start putting robots in the third for 6 months due to a lack of engineers.

 

[Maarten]

Why the heavy volume today?

Not in this thread.
edit: @Thumper : # posts in this thread pretty thin today

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1564720194429325317

 

[gene]

It's Arches National Park not national forest

I knew it, I knew it! People said Everett Ruess was hanging out in Alamos, Sonora, Mx. Others said you were hiding out around Dance Hall Rock, or on the Navajo Rez. I said, naw, he's shacked up with some lady in Escalante. And look! There you are!

 

[MikeC]

Why the heavy volume today?

Divide by 3 to compare to pre-split. Volume has been anemic for the last two weeks.