Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

For same money, they can produce more in other locations and Tesla will buy them all.

Since CATL don't have end product(car), what advantage do they have for building with everything local in US .. where they don't even have local sourcing and all their rare minerals/supply chain is in China ... why, just to make GM, Ford happy

Also for the batteries they build here, TSLA likely gonna be direct competition with a 65% cost reduction. $75 kWh state side by 2026 ... no way

Also someone might have said " No Shipping"

Something I picked up from a "Cleanerwatt" video.

If Tesla makes 4680 LFP batteries in the US:-

• Grade A Batteries go into vehicles
• Grade B Batteries can go into energy storage.

4680 LFP batteries can go into structural packs, and can attract IRA subsidies.

Using more 4680s for Model Y frees up 2170s for the Semi.

The Grade A / Grade B thing was news to me, but it makes sense.

Perhaps some Gen3 models can use 4680 LFP, perhaps the 300 Mile semi, or the base model Cybertruck can use them.
Any excess 4680 LFP cells can go into energy storage ,in particular Megapack.

So Tesla can definitely use 4680 LFP in energy storage in high volume, if they can also be used for some vehicles, and can attract IRA credits, it seems like a no brainer.

In the US CATL would be competing with Tesla for raw materials. But overall making batteries in the US would be a good business for CATL to be in.
IMO what CATL and China don't like is, the IRA boosting battery production in the US, and giving it a competitive advantage over Chinese imports.

 

[Artful Dodger]

There are only two respectable ways for someone to respond to inaccurate estimation:

1. Acknowledge the problem, take responsibility and learn how to fix the model
2. Cease publication of authoritative-sounding "expert" estimates until such time that #1 has been accomplished

Nominated for "Moderators' Choice: Posts of Particular Merit". Thank-you.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Interesting, hope Tesla wasn't counting on these:

CATL reportedly delays North America battery plant due to new ...

The world's largest EV battery manufacturer, CATL, is reportedly

inside.com

Haha, did you notice how on the Q3'22 Conf. Call Elon went out of his way to mention that Tesla is developing its own N.American IRON CATHODE supplies?

Yeah, its all going come out after Jan 1st and the Secret Master Plan Part Trois.

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[Cosmacelf]

Unless the Taiwan situation develops badly and a tit for tat sanctions escalation follows between the US & China. I'm hoping the Berlin & Austin ramps happen rapidly as I'm factoring in China hostilities as at least a none negligible risk to our TSLA derived wealth.

PS, I look forward to anyone convincing me as to why I may be very wrong on this worry...

We already have a tit for tat sanctions war with China. The recent US sanctions against advanced chip making to China is huge. China apparently retaliated by blocking CATL investing in the US. It won’t be their last action.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Haha, did you notice how on the Q3'22 Conf. Call Elon went out of his way to mention that Tesla is developing its own N.American IRON CATHODE supplies?

Yeah, its all going come out after Jan 1st and the Secret Master Plan Part Trois.

Cheers to the Longs!

Yes indeed. I have zero doubt Elon has a plan B C and D for anything China might do. It would cause a hiccup but the mission will move forward.

 

[Singuy]

We already have a tit for tat sanctions war with China. The recent US sanctions against advanced chip making to China is huge. China apparently retaliated by blocking CATL investing in the US. It won’t be their last action.

Correlation does not equal causation here. The delay may be some externalities that has nothing to do with the chip sanction. It also doesn't make sense as this is a tit that doesn't equals tat. "We are going to cancel a thing that doesn't yet exist...that will hurt America"...lol. No if this was a real tit for tat, you pick something in the supply chain that not only exist but highly entrenched to really hurt the U.S.

 

[Tommy O]

CATL "delayed" their announcement of the NA battery factory location after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan *eyeroll*. Yeah, and every time you hear about a carrier moving through the strait is the only time that it happens *eyeroll*.

Is CATL going to not build a factory in NA? Maybe. The IRA doesn't seem like a good reason not to. It may be retaliation for the chip wars.

Hold your horses.

 

[Ogre]

We already have a tit for tat sanctions war with China. The recent US sanctions against advanced chip making to China is huge. China apparently retaliated by blocking CATL investing in the US. It won’t be their last action.

The IRA makes any Chinese battery investment in American markets a lot riskier. This doesn’t need to be any sort of tit for tat, the economics of battery factories in the US have changed a lot. They need to reassess.

 

[Cosmacelf]

The IRA makes any Chinese battery investment in American markets a lot riskier.

In what way?

 

[StealthP3D]

How come Troy doesn't use customer deposit to extrapolate backlogs but instead use wait times...

Wait times are updated regularly on the order page while customer deposits are only reported quarterly.

 

[Chenkers]

If Elon does end up selling next week I assume it will all be done on Monday and possibly Tuesday at the latest?

With T+2 for settlement that will be Thursday for Tuesday sales to clear. With the judge imposing Friday as the deadline for the deal, all paperwork and funds would need to be completed in advance of this date.

If there is selling happening on Monday it and the settlement requirements should be obvious to the market. Therefore any bounce in expectation of selling concluding and the deal closing may happen well before Friday.

 

[dhanson865]

 

[Ogre]

In what way?

Because the Chinese manufacturers were likely planning on sourcing most of their materials from their established Chinese supply chains. It's very likely without big changes to their supply chain cars made with their US made cells wouldn't qualify for the IRA rebates. That means someone like Panasonic and Tesla who are far less reliant on a Chinese supply chain have a big head start.

The bill would require batteries to have at least 40 percent of materials sourced from North America or a US trading partner by 2024 in order to be eligible for the tax break. By 2029, battery components would have to be 100 percent made in North America. (Weirdly, this restriction doesn’t apply to used vehicles.)

Since the requirements only get tougher over the years they wound eventually need to build out a parallel supply chain for US buyers. I'm sure their original plan involved building a cell factory and leaving anode and/ or cathode production in China. This is no longer feasible. At the very least, it's a reset.

​

 

[StealthP3D]

I double down on this comment after that last post and say things are really spicy today.

What I find astounding is not that it's spicy, it's hearing people seriously debate whether analysts have ulterior motives or not. Every self-respecting investor for over 3 decades knows they do, it's not up for debate. It's incredibly naive to think they get paid hundreds of thousands of dollars for their "research and analysis" and then just publish it far and wide for everyone to use for free. Everyone but the most gullible knows that brokerage analysts are just one more tool to get you to part with your money.

If you let the stated opinions of brokerage analysts influence you in any way (other than as a contrarian influence), then you deserve whatever comes your way. No one is paying them to help Joe Public Investor and it didn't take me long to learn this shortly after I started following the markets over 30 years ago. I thought almost everyone knew that.

 

[Gigapress]

I feel this is why Elon keeps calling it a robotaxi. It’s really the model 2, but he jus r doesn’t want to osbourne sales right now. Depending on the progress of FSD beta they can choose to deploy the autonomous version of the car or passenger version, with so modular interchangeable parts.

Martin V sort of hinted at this in his analyst meetings and Elon all but spelled it out in the earnings call. Also let’s not forget China’s desire to not just be a production plant but to show off a Chinese-inspired/designed car of their own making for the world, an unfulfilled Elon goal (and a big reason why China will still be a backer of tesla for the forseeable future regardless of what FUD articles come out).

Elon at Cyber Rodeo:

"there’s gonna be a dedicated Robotaxi that’s gonna look quite futuristic"

Key word there is "dedicated".

From the Q1 call:

We're also working on a new vehicle that I alluded to at the Giga Texas opening, which is a dedicated robotaxi that's highly optimized for autonomy, meaning it would not have a steering wheel or pedals. And there are a number of other innovations around it that I think are quite exciting

A dedicated robotaxi platform would not just be a regular passenger vehicle form with the pedals and wheel removed.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Wait times are updated regularly on the order page while customer deposits are only reported quarterly.

wen backtesting?

What I find astounding is not that it's spicy, it's hearing people seriously debate whether analysts have ulterior motives or not.

Hahaha, no. The spicey part was the bromance.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Fears over Tesla demand are unfounded, says ARK Invest's Tasha Keeney | CNBC on Youtube

 

[MC3OZ]

Elon at Cyber Rodeo:

Key word there is "dedicated".

From the Q1 call:


A dedicated robotaxi platform would not just be a regular passenger vehicle form with the pedals and wheel removed.

That doesn't mean that the Robotaxi is the only Gen 3 vechicle.

FSD needs regulatory approval, and even when it is approved, demand for the service might take a while to ramp.

It is hard to time the ramp for a factory that just builds Robotaxis, and only Robotaxis.

A factory which builds Robotaxis and Others is more flexible.

 

[Artful Dodger]

#PREDICT: Tesla overtakes Ford GM in monthly Passenger car sales in the U.S. by Aug 2026 (3.9 yrs).

Assuming:

1. Ford can maintain their current sales (unclear), and
2. Tesla U.S. deliveries grow at 50%/yr.

Background / data:

2022 U.S. Auto Manufacturer Sales Figures | GCBC​

Discuss.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Pretty much the same with driving license. I don’t think my younger kids will ever need to learn to drive.