Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ogre]

As I added above - Tesla was outperforming the nasdaq up until September end (Even with what you are calling the “concern trolls”)

TSLA became a massive turd sandwhich in October and has not recovered since (obviously).

September?

You mean right after Tesla announced deliveries that missed expectations and everyone was scratching their heads trying to figure out why?

Coincidentally when Tesla said in their shareholders meeting they wouldn’t be hitting 50% growth after all.

 

[StealthP3D]

As a notable example, this is what happened with Twitter, which if I’m not mistaken was the biggest hostile takeover of all time and it was aided in part by Musk’s use of leverage with a margin loan against his TSLA stock. Leveraged hostile takeovers were especially common in the 1980s, and although they’ve fallen out of fashion they are still possible as far as I’m aware.

That raises a philosophical question.
Is it really a hostile takeover if you decide you don't want the company, but the other company sues you in court to force you to take them over?

 

[SmokyPeat]

I'd call it a bungled hostile takeover. At a fool's price.

 

[Singuy]

I have to admit I’m a little shocked by these graphs. I’ve honestly tuned out and focus more on personal life rather than on teslas numbers lately and just believed growth was still solidly above 40% yoy. Are these charts accurate? This is not the picture I was perceiving from the last few earnings calls.

Edit; did I just got so engrossed in Optimus/robotaxis/tesla energy that I missed tesla auto stalling out super hard this year?

Growth is measure in yoy, not qoq. Accurate chart only if you are looking at qoq, misleading conclusion because yoy is missing. If you think hitting 1.3 million+ cars delivered for the year vs 935+k last year is "flat" growth then don't know what to tell you.

Right now there's a battle between Troy's "42%" yoy growth or Zac's just below 50% growth in deliveries. No one is saying flat growth.

When you add in higher asp and energy growth, teslas revenue growth should hit about 50% yoy no matter what.

 

[betstarship]

Hm. Anyone have theories as to why the Berlin and Texas (2022) ramps haven't been growing as fast as the Shanghai ramp (2020) on a per factory basis?

GigaTexas was announced on June 15, 2021. GigaShanghai was announced on May 8th, 2018.

2020:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1344726598826815494

2021:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1476612984688500736

2022:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1605319330039840770

 

[Buckminster]

Great posts during last 12 hours. But doesn't that mean bad things for TSLA?

 

[Buckminster]

Thought this was worth sharing:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1605395434884603905

 

[betstarship]

Applying Troy's Q4 2022 estimates and today's share price. Hmm.

 

[elasalle]

Fred/Elec

Tesla is expanding into Turkey, starts hiring

Tesla is expanding its electric vehicle business in Turkey, a market that has been asking for Tesla services for years now.

electrek.co

Seems Turkey expansion…

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1605317841594490881

Gross profit = market cap. And we think we have a valuation problem! I sold and am not suggesting anyone buys btw.

 

[betstarship]

Green = Min Installed Capacity for Shanghai
Yellow = Min Total Installed Capacity across all factories

I used today's share price (pre 3:1 split).

 

[NicoV]

Some sound advise from Jeff

Well said. Were people shouting that Amazon’s board should fire Bezos back then?

 

[WarpedOne]

Elon Musk
https://twitter.com/elonmusk
Political attacks on me will escalate dramatically in coming months

6:22 PM · May 18, 2022

It is sad to see self-proclaimed "supporters" are also pilling on.
Hard times show your true colors.
There is one thing I don't agree with Musk : humanity in its current form and volume does not deserve to survive.

 

[SN_8]

And she sold when prices were a lot higher. Which raises the question, where are all the people brashly telling her how stupid she was for selling at such a low price? That's right, they are hiding in the corner, hoping no one remembers their harsh criticisms of her trading abilities and acting like they were trading geniuses that knew better than she.

ARKK is at a 6 year low. If I recall, much of the criticism was not just that she was selling "low", but that she was replacing TSLA with crap.

 

[elasalle]

It is sad to see self-proclaimed "supporters" are also pilling on.
Hard times show your true colors.
There is one thing I don't agree with Musk : humanity in its current form and volume does not deserve to survive.

Could say the same of Supporters that stay silent or say yes to anything he says and does

All here to support his big pic and vision- but small useless stuff might end up affecting the big ones

Acknowledging that there might be a problem is 1st step to problem resolution . Cheers!!

 

[aubreymcfato]

Phew! what a week..

Wait!!

 

[WarpedOne]

One thing is to (not) support.
A completely different thing is to go on a rampage of loud (not)supporting.
First one is individual choice, the other one is political activism.

Acknowledging that there might be a problem is 1st step to problem resolution

Is anyone pretending there are no problems?
I see a bunch of ****** screaming there is only one problem: Elon

Elon is far from perfect and yet he is the best I have. So, GTFO ...

 

[nativewolf]

ARKK is at a 6 year low. If I recall, much of the criticism was not just that she was selling "low", but that she was replacing TSLA with crap.

She is a whacko in my opinion. I don’t see how anyone invests if they dig into her analysis on anything. She sunshine pumped palantir and that is really a consulting company pretending to be a software company that hemorrhages money and without Uncle Sam it is gone.

 

[cliff harris]

Hm. Anyone have theories as to why the Berlin and Texas (2022) ramps haven't been growing as fast as the Shanghai ramp (2020) on a per factory basis?

Thats just simple bureaucracy. TBH I am amazed Berlin even got built, let alone was allowed to make cars. The west is MASSIVELY slowed down by excessive bureaucracy regarding planning, but also operating, recruiting, working....
This is all way easier in China.
Anyone who has tried to build any physical workspace and recruit people for it recently in any western country will tell you how hard it is, and how you are constantly pushing a boulder up hill.

I am frankly incredibly happy about how rapidly both Texas and Berlin are ramping.
Also quite happy at the prospect of a Mexico factory, which should hopefully be more shanghai than Berlin in this regard.

 

[cliff harris]

I've been thinking about the company's timing.
Some have rumored that the Mexico factory announcement will be this Friday, but I am starting to think no way.
Any news this week will be drowned out by the run-up to Christmas, and very quickly forgotten. Tesla ALREADY have an announcement opportunity coming up with the Q4 earnings call.

This is the perfect opportunity for them to
1) announce a new Mexico factory
2) announce a stock buyback

Of course, there are other wildcards, like announcing the model 2 small car, or announcing a completely unexpected van to be built in mexico, but I consider both of these unlikely so early. They are not going to want to steal the cybertruck and semi's thunder.

As someone who has held TSLA for > 7 years, I think right now we are in one of those frequent 'anybody selling now is just nuts' phases. That would be truye if the stock was $400, let alone $150. There are just too many good prospects that are imminent for it to make sense to get out now.
A VERY good time to get in though.