Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Olle
Active Member
Thanks for this, perfect. I wrote an email as well as signed the petition. Everybody standing for fairness and anti corruption should do the same!
Agreed on only the ones within the $56k-80k range.
BTW, the cheap $589 lease solves this by not needing the 3rd row to still get the tax break. Tesla is the outlier here when it comes to percentages of sales as leases (single digits), so there's a ton of room to grow as well.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Serious question on Tesla energy: why sell Megapacks when you are entering the energy market as a provider?
Tesla Energy Texas
Tesla Energy Ventures is now a Texas Electricity Company. Learn what this means for a struggling power grid and how it will change the market.quickelectricity.com
Tesla tests the circuits for German energy market push
By Vera Eckert, Christoph Steitz, Tom Käckenhoff and Edward Taylorwww.reuters.com
In Europe we are already having many days with low or even negative electricity prices as a result of abundant wind and solar production.
Hornsdale power reserve payed for itself in two years on the buy low-sell high principle.
There is no way in hell that the Chinese competition is getting this kind of strategic acces to the energy grid in the free world.
I say go ahead and disrupt this market
Elon has said the energy market is huge, probably eventually multiples of the auto market.
To answer your question - if you are deploying the megapacks yourself, you have to:
1) register to be a power producer (lots of red tape there)
2) design your interconnection and maintain it to the grid
3) go through the long process of permitting to deploy the megapacks
If, however, you are just selling the equipment, the existing power provider will do the bulk of the above themselves.
Tangentally related - @petit_bateau I like what you posted in the past day about Chinese competition, but @Tommy O said something to me in a private group that I think bears repeating here: The USA and many other Western countries will NEVER allow Chinese control hardware and software on their grids, there's a hard stop there on so many levels. They will probably be willing to buy the bare battery cells, but they will never put "at risk" their grid infrastructure with Chinese software. A la the Huawei issues with 5G wireless and how they are banned in western countries, but even more serious.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
The reason Tesla doesn't lease many cars is that they want the cars back at the end of the lease, and many people don't want those lease terms.
Telsa plans to use the lease return vehicles to build it's robotaxi fleet. Again, this IRA implimentation meddles with Tesla's plans going forward. IRA is a masterpiece of mischief.
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Here we are day 4 of 2023 and Tesla still hasn't updated website to show that Model 3 and Model Y LR 7 seater are eligible for the $7500 tax credit. Als it is 2023 and the website still says Model 3 LR available in 2023.
Paracelsus
Active Member
That is a very interesting Megapack thread, with worthwhile threads nested in it. Thanks for pointing us to it @Todd Burch . And I fully agree that it would be extremely helpful if Tesla would break out profits and margin for Megapacks as a standalone from solar going forward- particularly with Lathrop up and on line now, because I do agree with a portion of @petit_bateau critcism of my TE post from the perspective of Tesla Solar - a wonderful product that is in a highly competitive and growing market, and that will not likely see margins and revenue contributing in a manner many of us once hoped had Tesla been able to ramp faster. But then sacrificing Tesla Solar by borrowing their resources to save the Model 3 ramp was brilliant and necessary in hindsight. Tesla Energy Storage on the other hand……
From my experience with power plant operations, grid projects, and with Pacific NW hydro projects there is mind-boggling opportunity for Tesla Megapacks as a product for the grid, and as a VPP opportunity as @Dikkie Dik emphasizes. It was sincerely the catalyst for my original investments in TSLA in 2013. And the number of opportunities for Megapacks on grids supplied by power sources that can run efficiently through the off-peak hours - such as hydro and wind, is only beginning to be realized as we transition into EV’s and adopt more efficient residential and commercial loads. Megapacks will exist up and down nearby interstate corridors and highways for charging vehicles during the day from those off-peak surplus sources. And Megapacks will be distributed throughout both rural and urban areas connected to a grid supplied in part from additional off peak surplus power such as from new residential and small commercial rooftop solar - thereby further crushing the arguments that the existing grid can’t handle EVs, and while further reducing the need for natural gas peaker plants for those loads.
Megapacks will quietly kill pumped storage everywhere as well - both existing and proposed - and that is good for the grid and good for the Planet IMO. The logistics and permitting and cost to create a 70% efficient pumped hydro project are staggering. And the hard reality nobody wants to talk about is that pumped hydro projects result in further increasing water temperatures of our water systems that dump into our oceans by unnecessarily adding to the water temperature increases that were already brought on by the existing hydro system from slowing the flow of water and creating more surface area. For anyone familiar with impacts of water temperature on habitat and on fish - such as salmon migration impacts due to elevated river water temps, consider the the impacts of a further large titration of warmer waters back into those systems from stored pumped hydro sources. And anyone that believes that it is bad to increase our oceans temperatures should question this practice. Thus IMO based on closely following river water temps in these systems that we have not even began to realize the full extent of Climate friendliness of Megapacks compared to existing and proposed power systems people still view as very Green.
Hornsdale showed the world that Powerpacks (and Megapacks by default) weren’t just more profitable than anything else, they could be deployed faster than anything else too.
I am still waiting for the local grid to approve our big residential solar project. But I feel they would like to have the Powerpacks in that project online asap. And that is a metaphor for the difference in Tesla Solar and Tesla ‘Storage’ under the TE umbrella. The grid and large investors will buy every Tesla energy storage project as fast as they can acquire them, but The Grid needs to tiptoe into a world full of solar on every roof if they are going to be able to retain ownership of the new Paradigm being built as we speak. And when Tesla unlocks the ability to use 60% of our EV vehicle storage for residential storage- Back The Truck Up on VPP!!! We are looking at an additional 120 kWh of storage on our home project from our two 100kWh Teslas at that point. Once VPP is eventually approved in our state and are Teslas are connected through our Powerwall Gateways…..$$$$
If you are listening Tesla - please break out Tesla Energy Storage from Tesla Solar. It IS the Paradigm Shift of the Grid. And I still fully believe that it will provide a substantial amount of forecast stability to a significant portion of Tesla’s revenue under even the most dynamic macro economic conditions going forward.
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bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Probably because there is still uncertainly about what exactly qualifies. US Gov has been their typical inefficient selves and there are questions still about criteria.
I guarantee you that (people like you) would sue the snot out of Tesla if they put it on their website, and then the US Gov pulled the rug out from under them.
The Accountant
Active Member
Troy estimated 23k cars where on ships (or still unloading at docks) as of December 31.
Part of the reason for Production higher than Deliveries.
Part of the reason for Production higher than Deliveries.
The Accountant
Active Member
I think we have to wait until Q1 results to see if this account is reliable or not. They may just be off by one quarter.
Maybe there’s enough demand from people already aware of the tax credit.
It’s not like the IRA was top secret.
It’s not like the IRA hasn’t been discussed anywhere.
An updated website would only be helpful for people unaware of the IRA who accidentally stumble upon the Tesla website.
Ok blame it on the govt now even though on govt websites it point blank says Model 3 up to $55K is eligible, Model Y 7 seater up to $80K is eligible.
That doesnt mean people in the market that heard about the IRA, but dont know specifics and our comparison shopping across multiple EV brands dont know to look at Tesla site and see that doesnt look like Tesla is eligible. Then they look at another and see that they are eligible. Seems now we dont want to lock in orders because we have "enough" demand.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
"Qualified Manufacturers of the vehicles listed below have indicated that the vehicles are currently eligible for a credit provided other requirements are met. Check back for additions to this list."
Credits for new clean vehicles purchased in 2023 or after | Internal Revenue Service
You may qualify for a clean vehicle tax credit up to $7,500 if you buy a new, qualified plug-in electric vehicle or fuel cell electric vehicle.
That language sounds like a moving target to me.
EDIT - the PRIOR EV credit had this language:
"Manufacturers of the vehicles listed below have provided appropriate information and have received our acknowledgement that the vehicles are eligible for the credit and the amount of the qualifying credit."
Manufacturers and Models for New Qualified Clean Vehicles Purchased in 2022 and Before | Internal Revenue Service
List of vehicles that are eligible for a 30D clean vehicle tax credit and the amount of the qualifying credit, if purchased between 2010 and 2022.
Well he also estimated that there are over 600 cars sitting on every delivery center lots in China which I find hard to believe.
Says "Check back for additions to this list" not "List is subject to change". Additions are pretty specific. Also notice it is the manufacturers, last I checked Tesla is a manufacturer, have indicated which vehicles are eligible."Qualified Manufacturers of the vehicles listed below have indicated that the vehicles are currently eligible for a credit provided other requirements are met. Check back for additions to this list."
Credits for new clean vehicles purchased in 2023 or after | Internal Revenue Service
You may qualify for a clean vehicle tax credit up to $7,500 if you buy a new, qualified plug-in electric vehicle or fuel cell electric vehicle.www.irs.gov
That language sounds like a moving target to me.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
See my edit above - prior EV Credit had a statement that the IRS had verified and agreed. Current EV credit does NOT.
Tesla doesn’t offer the regular Model S and X in Europe
Tesla doesn’t offer any kind of Model S and X in China (for now)
Tesla doesn’t offer the Model Y SR in the USA
Tesla doesn’t offer the Model 3 LR in the USA
Tesla doesn’t look like a company desperately looking for demand.
This might be the hardest refutation of a 'demand' issue that I have seen. Tesla SHOULD NOT be gaining market share in the EU as all the legacy OEMs come to market with their BEV offerings. Market share should be shrinking. It would not matter for Tesla as the BEV market is exploding on the S curve and Tesla should still be able to sell everything it makes for a few years regardless of its market share. This is terrible news for the OEMs and speaks to the quality of their offerings and also their BEV ecosystem. It is bullish for Tesla. Now if it would only be bullish for TSLA...
This cannot be true and will not stand.
The website will update soon and we will be happy with it or my head will explode.
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