Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Sancho]

Having just this week helped a friend configure his M3 purchase, I believe the configuration changes are a great improvement. He was very confused by the different models and the difference between autopilot and FSD.

Now, simply, there are three M3 configurations: 39k, 49k and 59k. And one simple choice to pay 5k for FSD.

It’s a fair criticism to say that Tesla has not really achieved the goal of a 35k car. It’s barely being offered now. If they really met their goal the configurations would be 35k, 45k and 55k. Eventually they will get there as their volumes enable improved margins. I, for one, am not lowering my grade on Musk’s and Tesla’s overall performance. By getting the base price of an amazing electric car to $39k in 2019, I still give them an A++.

 

[Singer3000]

@cricketman Yes in Spain Audi A4 starts at 35,610 euro and Model 3 SR+ 48,200 euro. That is a $14,000 difference in American currency.

Mind you I am not saying Model 3 isn’t a good car for the price just looking at the people the price can reach.

Translating the Germany price for an Autopilot bundled SR+ into rough UK prices, we're dangerously close to the cheapest un-optioned Model 3 being classified as a "premium vehicle" for UK tax purposes (£40k value including options at time of purchase). I had hoped Tesla would be smart and offer the software in certain markets post-purchase at the same price as pre-purchase to get around this. Let's see...

 

[schonelucht]

So I can very much imagine the capacity being there in principle, but production bring significantly lower.

Ok, so your take is that Panasonic does not have the capacity then and is therefore lying.

(There is no 'having capacity in theory'. Either you are capable to produce or you are not. If you are not, then you are not capable. Few things are black&white but this really is)

 

[electronblue]

You are taking "base" prices, add some extras too and prices are almost equal.

That is certainly a point of view, no problem there, though of course average options in that end of price spectrum are a few thousand not ten thousand. But as I said I don’t think Model 3 is not a good car for its price. It is.

I was answering the point of which class of buyers the cars can reach (company cars were discussed). Model 3 at this level is still a class higher in terms of company cars than the mass-volume Audi A4s and BMW 3s in Europe.

A really competitive starting price for a company car would in euro-zone be, just as in the U.S., under 40,000 in the local currency. So Model 3 in Europe still falls quite far short from that entry-level business premium to to the middle manager range of business.

That said it is obviousily a great price for a fairly long range BEV with zero emissions and that in itself may make companies opt for a pricier car. I was just comparing the price-points really.

 

[RobPet]

At this price Model 3 is still in the larger Audi A6, BMW 5 price category in Europe though.

The sizewise similar Audi A4, BMW3 category starts usually at around 35,000 to 39,000 euro range depending on the market (39,000 euro in the case of Netherlands).

If I randomly select an Audi A4 Limousine from inventory. It's €43k, with the few options that you basically want/need.
However, it has 22% 'bijtelling'. Which will easily result in you paying ~€3000+ per year (at 38% income tax) more compared to SR+. Additionally, EVs are exempt from road taxes.
It's basically a no-brainer. Just this simple calculation will make the SR+ the cheaper choice after one year. Oh wait, I haven't included the gas savings yet either...

It is a serious competitor for a company car here in the Netherlands. Could argue that the price is still too steep for a consumer, though.
Unfortunately, no mention yet of leasing directly from Tesla . As that would probably be a serious option as well. I am hyped about another mention of the Tesla Network.

 

[Artful Dodger]

3. More speakers.

I think the 2 rear shelf speakers where just disabled in software. One Youtuber says he's expecting a OTA software update to enable them. He did say the rear subwoofer is not installed on his SR+ but there is more usable storage space there.

Cheers!

 

[Thekiwi]

Sorry, but you are talking 100%, complete, absolute, breathtakingly unadulterated nonsense there:

• You can order a Model 3 Standard Range Plus in Germany for €44.500 today.
• $35,000 plus ~$3,000 shipping costs, plus 10% import tariffs plus 19% VAT in Germany at a 1.12 exchange range is €43,600.

For this €44.500, which is €900 on top of the 2016 price (with 0% inflation, before incentives) you get the following features over the 2016 Standard Range Model 3:

• A SPECTACULAR glass roof, (metal roof promised in 2016),
  
• ~10% higher range (220 miles promised in 2016, 240 miles delivered today),
• ~200 kW peak charge rate, (twice of the charge rate of 2016),
  
• Autopilot, (was a $5,000 option in 2016),
  
• better acceleration, (5.6s promised, 5.3sec delivered),
  
• upgraded interior, (basic, all-plastic interior promised in 2016),
  
• 12-way power adjustable heated front seats, premium seat material and trim, custom driver profiles (only basic seats promised in 2016),
  
• better audio, (~twice the number of speakers, "Immersive Sound"),
• auto-dimming, power-folding, heated side mirrors, (simple mirrors planned in 2016),
  
• better online services,
• center console with storage, 4 USB ports and docking for 2 smartphones. (Simpler trim planned in 2016),
  
• Dog Mode, Sentry Mode, Romance Mode and whatever future OTA upgrade Tesla can think of,
  
• and a 10x faster FSD computer, which includes two of Tesla's revolutionary AI chips that might or might not fall under U.S. weapons export controls due to the danger they pose on humanity should SkyNet break free.

There's the promises Tesla kept, and in fact Tesla over-delivered fantastically:

You are welcome!

Don’t forget the addition of the glass roof!

 

[electronblue]

If I randomly select an Audi A4 Limousine from inventory. It's €43k, with the few options that you basically want/need.
However, it has 22% 'bijtelling'. Which will easily result in you paying ~€3000+ per year (at 38% income tax) more compared to SR+. Additionally, EVs are exempt from road taxes.
It's basically a no-brainer. Just this simple calculation will make the SR+ the cheaper choice after one year. Oh wait, I haven't included the gas savings yet either...

It is a serious competitor for a company car here in the Netherlands. Could argue that the price is still too steep for a consumer, though.
Unfortunately, no mention yet of leasing directly from Tesla . As that would probably be a serious option as well. I am hyped about another mention of the Tesla Network.

All fair, EVs have incentives based on the market. My point was simply that price-point-wise Model 3 in Europe is still in the Audi A6/BMW 5 range, not in the Audi A4/BMW 3 range which it is closer to in size so that remains a pricing difference compared to the U.S. where not only is Model 3 pricing a bit more comparable to Audi A4 ($32,500 vs. $35,000 for Model 3) you also get a tax cut that basically makes it even before any cost of ownership is even considered.

In Europe for Model 3 there remains this gap the size of a car class in the starting price-points, which does not exist in the U.S. pricing.

YMMV.

 

[Fact Checking]

Then by the intro in March of 2016, it was $35k.

And the point of my post was not just that Tesla tremendously over-delivered in terms of value, but also that in Germany the promise of the $35k car was kept if we fairly include tariffs (10%), transportation and VAT (19%) in the price, to within ~1k EUR.

Note that this extra cost of ~1k EUR is lower than ~4% cumulative German inflation over that time period of around ~1.5k EUR ...

By no definition of the word did Tesla break any promise: you can buy the $35k Model 3 today in Europe. Enjoy it!

 

[Thekiwi]

You left out the big potential saving from gas cost.
I don't want to do the math, but it obviously gets juicier.

Don’t ridesharing drivers use EVs already?

 

[electronblue]

Note that this extra cost of ~1k EUR is lower than ~4% cumulative German inflation over that time period of around ~1.5k EUR ...

The $35,000 was a future price-point always not something to be inflation corrected. Tesla’s own compensation goals make this clear.

The reality is the $35,000 version (in specs or at any comparable euro pricing) is not yet sold in Europe and today’s events seem to postpone that even further.

 

[Fact Checking]

Ok, so your take is that Panasonic does not have the capacity then and is therefore lying.

(There is no 'having capacity in theory'. Either you are capable to produce or you are not. If you are not, then you are not capable. Few things are black&white but this really is)

That's not "my take" - it's one of the possibilities.

The language-lawyering around "capacity" is also noted, but ultimately fails as well: for example the Model 3 LR battery pack having 78 kWh of capacity doesn't mean that's all usable capacity, right? There's a lot of freedom around 'peak capacity', 'effective capacity', etc.

Also, the context of the Panasonic comments were in relation to the 50 GWh claim, was was an old milestone. I wouldn't expect overly accurate figures in that context.

So in light of all that IMHO "lying" is a too strong word when "spinning" or "making optimistic statements about peak output" suffices as well. Also note that Panasonic said that they installed 35 GWh capacity by March 31. If they finished that in late March then they'd have no effect on Tesla's Q1 capacity constraints, right?

So no, the world is not binary, and especially not if you are passing around numbers in Japanese corporate culture.

 

[TrendTrader007]

$tsla doing leases for model 3 starting Now is a HUGE deal and will greatly increase its demand
SP ready to shoot up sticking it to the shorts-well deserved
I have zero sympathy for shorts and corrupt media/CNBC

$tsla SP already up premarket on news that Tsla is now leasing M3

 

[Carl Raymond]

You left out the big potential saving from gas cost.
I don't want to do the math, but it obviously gets juicier.

Assumed that in 3 yrs time, Uber drivers would be using EVs.

 

[Fact Checking]

The $35,000 was a future price-point always not something to be inflation corrected. Tesla’s own compensation goals make this clear.

I did not include inflation in my calculation, nor did I include the (significant) incentives that Germany offers:

Sorry, but you are talking 100%, complete, absolute, breathtakingly unadulterated nonsense there:

• You can order a Model 3 Standard Range Plus in Germany for €44.500 today.
• $35,000 plus ~$3,000 shipping costs, plus 10% import tariffs plus 19% VAT in Germany at a 1.12 exchange range is €43,600.

For this €44.500, which is €900 on top of the 2016 price (with 0% inflation, before incentives) you get the following features over the 2016 Standard Range Model 3:

• A SPECTACULAR glass roof, (metal roof promised in 2016),
  
• ~10% higher range (220 miles promised in 2016, 240 miles delivered today),
• ~200 kW peak charge rate, (twice of the charge rate of 2016),
  
• Autopilot, (was a $5,000 option in 2016),
  
• better acceleration, (5.6s promised, 5.3sec delivered),
  
• upgraded interior, (basic, all-plastic interior promised in 2016),
  
• 12-way power adjustable heated front seats, premium seat material and trim, custom driver profiles (only basic seats promised in 2016),
  
• better audio, (~twice the number of speakers, "Immersive Sound"),
• auto-dimming, power-folding, heated side mirrors, (simple mirrors planned in 2016),
  
• better online services,
• center console with storage, 4 USB ports and docking for 2 smartphones. (Simpler trim planned in 2016),
  
• Dog Mode, Sentry Mode, Romance Mode and whatever future OTA upgrade Tesla can think of,
  
• and a 10x faster FSD computer, which includes two of Tesla's revolutionary AI chips that might or might not fall under U.S. weapons export controls due to the danger they pose on humanity should SkyNet break free.

There's the promises Tesla kept, and in fact Tesla over-delivered fantastically:

You are welcome!

I made the point that the price difference is smaller than even the (very low) inflation in Europe over that time frame.

 

[Thekiwi]

So has anyone actually attempted to order a model 3 SR over the phone yet since this pricing change (anyone in Europe)? Curious to know for certain what the minimum price is for SR.

 

[Tslynk67]

I guess that means the only way to know if the SR is still $35K is to go to a store and order one?

Hey, last month they said that nobody was allowed to order in-store any more, it was all on the web-site.

Not mentioned in the Tesla blog is that SR+ is now available in Europe. IMO it's a little pricey at €10k more than the US version, same gap as for the other variants, would have been nicer if it were a %age, but I guess such of the extra costs to get them into Europe are the same regardless of the model.

Need that GF4 desperately to get these prices down and open up to a wider demographic.

 

[Cobbler]

$tsla doing leases for model 3 starting Now is a HUGE deal and will greatly increase its demand
SP ready to shoot up sticking it to the shorts-well deserved
I have zero sympathy for shorts and corrupt media/CNBC

$tsla SP already up premarket on news that Tsla is now leasing M3

TT007 posted, so the SP is f*cked. We'll hit the bottom at $260 today

Just my Neural Net output trained from previous market reactions when TT posted

 

[Singer3000]

Hey, last month they said that nobody was allowed to order in-store any more, it was all on the web-site.

Not mentioned in the Tesla blog is that SR+ is now available in Europe. IMO it's a little pricey at €10k more than the US version, same gap as for the other variants, would have been nicer if it were a %age, but I guess such of the extra costs to get them into Europe are the same regardless of the model.

Need that GF4 desperately to get these prices down and open up to a wider demographic.

View attachment 396079

The shipping cost isn't helpful but it's the 10% tariff that's the biggest kick in the gangoolies. EU customers are made to feel grateful that green minded governments are giving various incentives to buy EVs. But really all they're doing is somewhat compensating the consumer from the protectionist wall thrown around the dieselgate producers in Germany. You work at the Commission don't you? Get it sorted mate!

 

[Cobbler]

Hey, last month they said that nobody was allowed to order in-store any more, it was all on the web-site.

Not mentioned in the Tesla blog is that SR+ is now available in Europe. IMO it's a little pricey at €10k more than the US version, same gap as for the other variants, would have been nicer if it were a %age, but I guess such of the extra costs to get them into Europe are the same regardless of the model.

Need that GF4 desperately to get these prices down and open up to a wider demographic.

View attachment 396079

This should've been 4000€ less imho