Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Stretch2727]

Except it completely ignores that Tesla is not just a car company. Employees per car means nothing when you also do energy storage, fueling infrastructure, solar, insurance, robots, FSD, the dealerships, service, etc. And most of those businesses are in their infancy, not contributing significant revenue yet. It’s comparing apples to chickens.

McElroy *completely*missed the boat on this, illustrating again how many “experts” still don’t get the company. (Edit: partly got ninja’d on this).

Agree cars per employee is not a metric anyone should rely on to run a business.

The real point John is trying to make is the legacies lost a lot of capabilities as they now have minimal vertical integration. The 90's and early 2000's saw the legacies spin off a massive amount of their internal capabilities. Look up Visteon and Delphi as 2 of the largest. I know I was there and there were a lot of guys around like Sandy and John saying this was a big mistake, but everyone understood it was all about cost. Management was driving this based on the perception automotive components were commodities and not innovative industries. Having worked for both Visteon and Ford I saw where the real engineering was occurring, and I can tell you it was not at Ford. Ford was basically project management and vehicle packaging. Even system level integration and testing was pushed out to the suppliers. Ok they did keep engines and transmissions capabilities internal. Lots of good that does them now.

The stuff they spun off had electronics and software capabilities. I am sure they wish they had this now or they are trying to rebuild it. There is really minimal capability here outside of engine and transmission. They are relying on 3rd parties for almost all of it and now they need to totally reinvent it.

The mistakes were made many years ago based on the assumption the industry was mature and stable. When books are written about the disruption of the automotive industry through the transition to EV's, I think this will be one area where the strategic blunders of the legacy automotive companies will be clearly exposed.

 

[TrendTrader007]

SMR goes through key details of a Halter Ferguson report on products that will define Tesla's future through 2030.

TLDW: Halter Ferguson's consideration of the future potential for Optimus and FSD

"...results in a present value for TSLA stock at $1,134"
and
"We do not believe the stock market will suddenly agree with us."​

Thanks for the post. I find SMR to be most knowledgeable and totally hilarious. Love his videos.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

You live in America and don't know that pick up trucks are mostly lifestyle vehicles? The vast majority are never used to tow or go off road in. The category that is somewhat of an except are the F250+ sized trucks, true med/heavy duty. Not as many people buy those for vanity reasons.

So we are replacing massive gas guzzling trucks with something that will get around 100mpge. That about as mission focused as possible.

I agree that some pickup trucks get bought for "vanity" reasons but virtually all pickup trucks prove their worth as pickup trucks. Eventually they all come in handy for haling furniture, yard waste or a bunch of bikes.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

I can't remember if I posted it or not but I'd like Tesla to purchase someone like Lennar or KB Home. I hate seeing all these new housing tracks getting build with zero solar panels.

@ShareLofty I'm interested in hearing why you don't like this post.

 

[jw934]

"Off road"??!??

* Tesla Model Y - Euro NCAP Best in Class 2022 - Small Off-Road

Brian would agree with the “off road” category.
Quotes from Battalion Chief Brian Pottenger of the Coastside Fire Protection District:

“the two kids in the back had minimal injuries, it was very amazing.”
“Parents had more significant technical injuries”. But, “There should not have been anybody that survived that type of accident.”
“Unfortunately we see crashes here on a regular basis”
And from the video Description: “the fact that they are still alive after such a dangerous situation is "mind-blowing.”

 

[Cosmacelf]

I can't remember if I posted it or not but I'd like Tesla to purchase someone like Lennar or KB Home. I hate seeing all these new housing tracks getting build with zero solar panels.

All new homes in CA must be built with solar panels by law. Other southern states will follow soon enough.

 

[Artful Dodger]

OT, but @Artful Dodger started it. The key here is the bot AI and autonomy. Mars light-time delays will necessitate independent decisions and actions for a meaningful rate of progress. Autonomous factory work may indeed be a good training ground.

Not with a Mars Gateway. Until the essential infrastructure is built on the surface, Humans can live in orbit in relative comfort and safety, while bots do the work on the surface. When any intervention is required, the 'bot could be radio remote operated by the humans w. little time lag.

Humans otherwise do the logistics and task planning for colony construction. NN training done w. a server farm in orbit (powered by cheap solar). Telsa will have a large part in all of this as a prime contractor. We also own much of the IP.

 

[Favguy]

I agree that some pickup trucks get bought for "vanity" reasons but virtually all pickup trucks prove their worth as pickup trucks. Eventually they all come in handy for haling furniture, yard waste or a bunch of bikes.

As a work vehicle, pick up trucks are a terrible compromise. In 95% of use cases a panel van is a far more useful and appropriate vehicle for the job. US culture has ensured thier ongoing appeal, the rest of the world figured out the panel van thing a long time ago. The few pick ups we do have over in the UK are generally all beaten up, as they're only used for appropriate work, no one wants one to use as a car, that would just be weird! (Cybertruck aside, as its as cool as anything!)

 

[Fred42]

All new homes in CA must be built with solar panels by law. Other southern states will follow soon enough.

Lobbyists and the politics of the people who run those states will prevent that from happening.

 

[FireMedic]

@ShareLofty I'm interested in hearing why you don't like this post.

Agree. I have a complex roof and while I’d love a solar roof (and need a new roof (and solar) in <5 years); I’d need Wall Street to agree with Halter Ferguson to afford a solar roof. Currently I believe it’s aesthetically superior but not cost competitive vs traditional roof and solar.

The solar roof product is best IMO for new construction or commercial (apartments, etc.). I would like to see some partnerships with major home builders before I take this product too seriously. I HAVE NO EXPERTISE FOR THIS BIAS…just my personal experience as a consumer who would like to own the product.

 

[wipster]

Tesla AI confirming the obvious:

Optimus on Twitter: "Establishing a life on Mars for humans will be incredibly difficult and hard work. With a legion of Tesla Bots that would arrive years before humans, we could make Mars habitable. Thank you to @elonmusk for making this possible " / Twitter​

Interesting. Don't know how many folks here watch "For All Mankind" on Apple (an excellent alt history about the Space Race) but the introduction of robots like Optimus in the upcoming Season 4 would be great. Especially for mining the astroid belt.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Well, the requirements haven't been released yet. The Federal government are supposed to release the NEVI requirements next week. Then give it some time for the states/territories to digest that and add their own requirements on top, after which point they will release RFPs.

Tesla could likely apply for funding to upgrade their sites to be NEVI compliant. Or they could apply to add NEVI compliant sites. Or they could just say it isn't worth the hassle and just continue on their own. (Which is what they appear to be doing, since they have declined the ~$6M of funding from California that they had been awarded for charger installations.)

Thanks Mike. I would be interested in any info or links on the California situation if you have them handy. It’s interesting to see how this is playing out in various places.

Thanks again.

 

[AmpManMYP]

Hmm... MYP in your name, for your wife's car? And the Performance is to pull the trailer? FYI, that has lower range, odd story that is.

Since we're sharing, we need a CyberTruck so we can play with Bandit inside to chase the ball around easier. We also look forward to a candle light dinner with the new Table-Dashboard feature.

What's so odd? We needed to replace our ICE vehicle ASAP, and it was a one year+ wait for a Y Long Range (which she would have preferred), so MYP it was. It was her money, and her choice .

Besides which the more efficient M3 I would have preferred is not rated to pull a trailer in the US. Lucky Europeans don't have that restriction, which I guess is another reason the CT won't be as good a fit there (ie, they can buy the most efficient Tesla and still use it to haul stuff when needed).

 

[FireMedic]

Lobbyists and the politics of the people who run those states will prevent that from happening.

Forever? This seems like a temporary headwind to me. Care to elaborate?

My experience is that the inefficiencies of government can rarely prevent progress, just slow it down. If states adopt these sorts of policies, the results should be evident over time, and increasingly difficult to ignore; lobbyists and special interests be damned.

Or, what am I missing?

 

[jerry33]

@ShareLofty I'm interested in hearing why you don't like this post.

Probably because of the quality of housing being built now. Also house building tends to be low margin. And finally, I think it's like buying a used ICE--you're paying for someone else's problems. If Tesla was to build houses, they should do it themselves and create efficiencies and quality, not try to fix something broken.

 

[AmpManMYP]

All new homes in CA must be built with solar panels by law. Other southern states will follow soon enough.

I wish I could agree. The deep red southern states would rather start a new civil war than capitulate to such heresy as requiring solar panels on their roofs.

Fortunately the utilities here are realizing solar is the cheapest way to generate power, and since money talks, are heavily investing in it at the grid level. My electrical engineer son spends all his work hours at Southern Company in Alabama designing facilities to interface solar farms with the grid. And massive investment in storage is inevitable for them, which should make our portfolios happy .

 

[Knightshade]

I agree that some pickup trucks get bought for "vanity" reasons but virtually all pickup trucks prove their worth as pickup trucks. Eventually they all come in handy for haling furniture, yard waste or a bunch of bikes.

Not some- the vast majority.

Unless you mean "ever, even once" the "virtually all" claim simply is not true... 75% tow with it 0-1 times a year, ~70% go off-road 0-1 times a year, and a full 35% don't even use the bed at all (and often the 65% are "hauling" stuff that'd haul just fine in a smaller more efficent vehicle). The 0-1 a year folks would of course be better off with same, and just renting something the one time ever they need a truck.

You Don't Need A Full-Size Pickup Truck, You Need a Cowboy Costume

The full-size pickup truck has become America's best-selling vehicle by a country mile. But most Silverado, Ram, and F-Series buyers would be better served with a cheaper means of role-playing.

www.thedrive.com

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Agree. I have a complex roof and while I’d love a solar roof (and need a new roof (and solar) in <5 years); I’d need Wall Street to agree with Halter Ferguson to afford a solar roof. Currently I believe it’s aesthetically superior but not cost competitive vs traditional roof and solar.

The solar roof product is best IMO for new construction or commercial (apartments, etc.). I would like to see some partnerships with major home builders before I take this product too seriously. I HAVE NO EXPERTISE FOR THIS BIAS…just my personal experience as a consumer who would like to own the product.

This post reflects both my opinion and situation.

We bought this house over the internet before moving here because I didn't want to mess around with moving twice when we got here. Worked out very well but my one disappointment is the house isn't a candidate for solar. Even if we cut down all the pine trees, the positioning doesn't work for solar.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

They haven't refused all subsides, as I know they have taken some in Canada.

Yah. Canada took a different approach. Here the government hires Tesla to install reliable CCS/Chademo facilities. They are co-located at superchargers. Upon completion they are turned over to FLO and FLO operates them. They are super reliable. Typically for every 8 supercharger pedestals there are 3 x CCS Chademo pedestals. If there are 12 supercharger pedestals then there are 4 CCS/Chademo pedestals. Getting pretty common across the country. We have one in our hometown.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Probably because of the quality of housing being built now. Also house building tends to be low margin. And finally, I think it's like buying a used ICE--you're paying for someone else's problems. If Tesla was to build houses, they should do it themselves and create efficiencies and quality, not try to fix something broken.

Maybe. I don't have an opinion as to weather home building is ripe for disruption or if it would be better to acquire someone else's expertise.

Edit: Actually I do think it would be better to acquire expertise for ease of pushing the mission. Use existing homebuilding technology and enhance with solar, batter storage and possibly HVAC.