Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SageBrush]

I just did a quick calculation, and with their current open Superchargers, they have a total demand capacity of 1,439,002kW for 18,038 stalls. (Which works out to ~80kW/stall)

What do you get for demand charges per kWh if you use those numbers?

The result is proportional. 200 kW was 62¢ per kWh, so 80 kW would be 62¢ * (80/200) = 24¢ per kWh

 

[Todd Burch]

I was actually disappointed with the 4680 ramp.

Tesla has been doubling or tripling output every quarter. So 2k / week in Q1 would maintain that pace, but 3k / week in q2 would be much slower.

I was hoping they could keep doubling every quarter until they started approaching the 100 GWh annual capacity. But that was probably too hopeful.

Remember, this is about optimizing the process. You don’t want to copy/paste a suboptimal process. Instead you want your process going as fast as you can. THEN you copy/paste it everywhere.

I took those numbers to refer to the line they currently have set up in Austin. Once Tesla hits what they believe is an optimal process—say 5k/week just for example…then you can copy/paste that and immediately get 10k/week, assuming you have the raw materials.

 

[Max Plaid]

If I am correct I have read that for the new Monterrey plant processes Tesla has agreed to use waste water.
That would mean that Tesla will also build a Waste Water Cleaning Installation, because the techniques being used to clean water to an extent where it is really clean, are likely not yet or rarely being used in Mexico.
This can be done by special hyper filtration techniques, making the water even drinkable.

A couple of years back I was invited to drink sewer water that was cleaned in this way.
Try to imagine a cup being held under your nose, would you drink it?
I did, but that didn't come easy...

So, we may expect Tesla to have to build this facility, with storage, ducts etc., etc.
Really great, setting quite an example here.

All the water we drink has been sewer-water at some point in time, it has been peed or excreted from another human on multiple occasions, some of the water molecules in your glass may well have passed through Elon's bladder, or Donald Trumps, or maybe Adolf Hitler's colon... perhaps all three!

Etc.

 

[SageBrush]

True however there are some crazy details.

Tesla is also planning a design that is a step increase in production per volume. Without actual production data to go by, I have it stuck in my head that the GF of the future are designed for 2M production a year. This is mostly a result of trying to rationalize how Tesla reaches 20M production by 2030.

 

[SageBrush]

I took those numbers to refer to the line they currently have set up in Austin. Once Tesla hits what they believe is an optimal process—say 5k/week just for example…then you can copy/paste that and immediately get 10k/week

The math could be consistent with those numbers. How does 5k/week per line compare to the current wet process ?

 

[Atomsla]

All the water we drink has been sewer-water at some point in time, it has been peed or excreted from another human on multiple occasions, some of the water molecules in your glass may well have passed through Elon's bladder, or Donald Trumps, or maybe Adolf Hitler's colon... perhaps all three!

Etc.

Thank you?

 

[Christine69420]

Rob Mauer just commented in his Tesla daily that the gigafactory render in Mexico looks like 2 gigafactory in 1 comparing to the render of gigatexas.

In my eyes it looks much smaller. Perhaps as wide - but the length is shorter. Compare the main entrance with the same in Austin.

But it also looks like it will be built in two parts connected by bridges.

 

[Thekiwi]

Tesla Feb China Wholesale number (exports + domestic): 74,402

sounds good.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1631603058210746369

Troy is sticking to his guns

 

[petit_bateau]

Adamas has also picked up on the "no-rare-earths" point, but they don't really add anything to the discussion.

A thought that I had was that there may be learning going on from the Semi, and that this learning may be propogating to the Gen3 and perhaps also to the Cybertruck. If you recall the Semi has some clutches that disengage motors so that there is no motor drag. The clutches are nifty in that they are essentially a dog tooth clutch that engages two shafts spinning at matched speeds (maybe even matched positions, we don't yet know that bit) before carrying out the engage/disengage operation. So transient forces are minimised, and there are no friction/wear components. Great if it works reliably.

The steady state power (or torque) requirements in a vehicle are relatively low. It is really the acceleration requirements that call for the big motor. So perhaps the Gen3 will be multi-motor in nature with a ferrite 'weak' motor for cruising, and a clutched neo 'strong' motor for boosting (acceleration, hill climbing, maybe even regen braking). That would allow for the use of ferrites with the existing ferrite field strengths (i.e. no magic ferrite2). Since the duty cycle of the neo would be relatively infrequent then they might be able to get away with a relatively skimpy neo boost motor & ancilliary systems. This may show up first in the CT.

Just a thought. I guess we will find out more in due course.


Anyway here is the Adamas bit : Implications: Tesla Announces Next Generation Rare-Earth-Free PMSM

 

[Todd Burch]

Troy:

“Some exports will remain unsold in Europe”.

Huh??

Is he talking about demo cars? Since when does Tesla just keep unsold inventory around? Troy’s starting to sound TSLAQish again. Not sure what his reasoning is here?

 

[Buckminster]

3:55
Did Elon say that Dojo and NVDA h/w will 100x in 2 years?

 

[Cult Member]

Should each energy storage company hold their own investor day? That's not required! TESLA's message is universal.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1631608777039310850

 

[MC3OZ]

Adamas has also picked up on the "no-rare-earths" point, but they don't really add anything to the discussion.

A thought that I had was that there may be learning going on from the Semi, and that this learning may be propogating to the Gen3 and perhaps also to the Cybertruck. If you recall the Semi has some clutches that disengage motors so that there is no motor drag. The clutches are nifty in that they are essentially a dog tooth clutch that engages two shafts spinning at matched speeds (maybe even matched positions, we don't yet know that bit) before carrying out the engage/disengage operation. So transient forces are minimised, and there are no friction/wear components. Great if it works reliably.

The steady state power (or torque) requirements in a vehicle are relatively low. It is really the acceleration requirements that call for the big motor. So perhaps the Gen3 will be multi-motor in nature with a ferrite 'weak' motor for cruising, and a clutched neo 'strong' motor for boosting (acceleration, hill climbing, maybe even regen braking). That would allow for the use of ferrites with the existing ferrite field strengths (i.e. no magic ferrite2). Since the duty cycle of the neo would be relatively infrequent then they might be able to get away with a relatively skimpy neo boost motor & ancilliary systems. This may show up first in the CT.

Just a thought. I guess we will find out more in due course.


Anyway here is the Adamas bit : Implications: Tesla Announces Next Generation Rare-Earth-Free PMSM

The PSMR motor used a Hallbach? Array of magnets glued together. I remember that Sandy Munro was blown away by this and wondered how Tesla had done it.

I would not rule out some better engineered Hallback Array, or higher voltages somehow allowing stronger magnetic fields will perhaps using thinner copper wires and some really neat way of winding the motor.

While I have no idea what they are doing, I suspect that they have found a really grest solution,

I remember Drew also said last earning call that statistics from the fleet indicated that motors were over engineered and that was a cost saving opportunity.

 

[Usain]

I'm about 20 pages behind, so forgive me if this has already been said. But I wanted to put this out there.

V2H makes no sense when batteries get cheap. You will just buy a cheap high-capacity PowerWall.

Would I like to use my car as a home backup today? Yes!
Will I want to use my car as a home backup in the future? No!

Elon is right because his head is in the future.

 

[Singuy]

3:55
Did Elon say that Dojo and NVDA h/w will 100x in 2 years?

Ai training speed will 100x in 2 years. I believe a lot has to do with scalability of dojo. During AI day they talked about Dojo ramp speed which means it's another hardware product Tesla thought about mass deployment.

 

[Singuy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1631603058210746369

Troy is sticking to his guns

His numbers are not even that bearish. Tesla numbers used to drop off 10-20% q4 to q1 due to seasonality and that was when they were delivering less than 100k cars for the q. So a flat q4 to q1 is fine.

 

[jw934]

Learned there is a web site call EV-Tesla Global Inventory Search, and Autopilot HW 4 are now in inventory S and Xs.

 

[willow_hiller]

Learned there is a web sitecallEV-Tesla Global Search, and Autopilot HW 4 are now in inventory S and Xs.

As @Buckminster said in another thread, it's the perfect time for Tesla to shadow-rollout HW4. Everyone's too distracted by Investor Day to notice. The HW4 news has actually been posted on this thread twice before yours, but clearly lost amid the V2G arguments!

 

[Thekiwi]

Troy:

“Some exports will remain unsold in Europe”.

Huh??

Is he talking about demo cars? Since when does Tesla just keep unsold inventory around? Troy’s starting to sound TSLAQish again. Not sure what his reasoning is here?

@Troy can of course answer himself on this thread, but his thesis appears to be that Tesla does not have the demand to sell all the output in Europe & China.