Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[betstarship]

Anyone happen to know anyone who's doing research, or already has done research, on the after effects of black swans on a generalized basis?

 

[FastEddieB]

I think we're probably at an inflection point in 2023.

Of course I hope so.

But I still hold that everything you listed is expected by many, and so already factored into today's stock price.

 

[FastEddieB]

Anyone happen to know anyone who's doing research, or already has done research, on the after effects of black swans on a generalized basis?

Not sure it qualifies as research, but Nassim Taleb has written a whole book about it, appropriately named "The Black Swan".

 

[cliff harris]

Even with everything going on with black swans, anyone else also under the impression TSLA is going to spike/run-up sometime this year? maybe even in the next few months?

Some rationale for 2023:
- Strong (historically) Q1 / 2023 P&D and earnings
- Berlin & Texas are ready for scaled production
- Cybertruck production/deliveries start
- Semi scale up
- Starship successful launch and regular cadence
- Starlink enabled for most of the world
- Growth of EVs and huge market (thus increasing market size of the entire ecosystem)
- Much wider knowledge that the world needs to moving to sustainability (advocates on advocates)

I think we're probably at an inflection point in 2023.

I agree.
I do think that the first cybertruck deliveries will be a game-changer for perception of the company. Tesla are in the unfortunate position of having announced 3 products (CT/Semi/Roadster) a long time ago and seemingly NOTHING has happened since. This has given them, and definitely Elon, a reputation for making promises that never come true. The same is true for FSD of course.

When the first 100 or so cybertrucks hit the streets in the hands of real customers, and we see teardowns, and reviews, and people talking about them, there may well be a sudden realisation on wall st and main st that 'oh, ok, so they are really doing all that stuff for real?'. (Semi isn't the same, because they are company owned, and most companies dont want people poking around thier equipment.)

Anyone selling stock before the first consumer cybertruck deliveries will regret it!

I still think SP of $250 by June, $300 by year end. Possibly $400, if CT goes well.

 

[betstarship]

I agree.
I do think that the first cybertruck deliveries will be a game-changer for perception of the company. Tesla are in the unfortunate position of having announced 3 products (CT/Semi/Roadster) a long time ago and seemingly NOTHING has happened since. This has given them, and definitely Elon, a reputation for making promises that never come true. The same is true for FSD of course.

When the first 100 or so cybertrucks hit the streets in the hands of real customers, and we see teardowns, and reviews, and people talking about them, there may well be a sudden realisation on wall st and main st that 'oh, ok, so they are really doing all that stuff for real?'. (Semi isn't the same, because they are company owned, and most companies dont want people poking around thier equipment.)

Anyone selling stock before the first consumer cybertruck deliveries will regret it!

I still think SP of $250 by June, $300 by year end. Possibly $400, if CT goes well.

Putting in all that investment into batteries, in order to enable the EV and Robotics market now, sure is paying off in the new vehicles from Tesla as well as Tesla Bot! Who knows what it's helping with at SpaceX.

 

[2daMoon]

Even with everything going on with black swans, anyone else also under the impression TSLA is going to spike/run-up sometime this year? maybe even in the next few months?

Some rationale for 2023:
- Strong (historically) Q1 / 2023 P&D and earnings
- Berlin & Texas are ready for scaled production
- Cybertruck production/deliveries start
- Semi scale up
- Starship successful launch and regular cadence
- Starlink enabled for most of the world
- Growth of EVs and huge market (thus increasing market size of the entire ecosystem)
- Much wider knowledge that the world needs to moving to sustainability (advocates on advocates)

I think we're probably at an inflection point in 2023.

Please add to the list:

• Joe @ZeApelido convinces Jerome that the Fed's target has been achieved.

 

[AndrewZ]

Anyone happen to know anyone who's doing research, or already has done research, on the after effects of black swans on a generalized basis?

Elon thinks a conflict with China over Taiwan is inevitable and would cut the global economy by 30%

Geopolitics is probably the biggest real risk out there right now, the world can handle higher interest rates

 

[Rarity]

Not sure it qualifies as research, but Nassim Taleb has written a whole book about it, appropriately named "The Black Swan".

Bank runs are not black swans. They aren't even that surprising. Pretty run of the mill risk.

 

[Captkerosene]

Anyone happen to know anyone who's doing research, or already has done research, on the after effects of black swans on a generalized basis?

Read "Fiat Money Inflation in France." Written in 1896, it's a good short read on government and money.

 

[JRP3]

Tesla are in the unfortunate position of having announced 3 products (CT/Semi/Roadster) a long time ago and seemingly NOTHING has happened since.

Semi has been delivered to some customers and is being used in the real world so I think we can cross that one off the list.

 

[cliff harris]

Semi has been delivered to some customers and is being used in the real world so I think we can cross that one off the list.

True, but not in terms of public perception. Who even knows about this, who is not a Tesla investor? Have you seen one in the wild? Do you personally know anybody who has? A single customer, in a single location, in a single country. I'm sure production will increase, but as far as the public is concerned, the tesla semi has not happened yet.

 

[insaneoctane]

I was surprised that I paid $17 to charge 40 kWh yesterday in Aberdeen, WA Supercharger. That was .425 per kWh! I have not been using supercharger for a year (or so), but this seems pretty high. Has Tesla been raising the price?

$0.425/kWh equates to about $4/gallon @28MPG (assuming ~300 Wh/mi +charging losses). Some California sites charge $0.58+/kWh. It seems charging up, on the road / away from home in certain regions is approaching parity with ICE fueling costs. I aways charge at home when possible for 50%+fuel savings vs ICE. When I am away from home, needing charging, I'm always grateful for the speed and convenience of Superchargers and can't really complain as long as it's not more than gasoline! I do think energy costs are up and Tesla subsidies are down.

 

[GOVA]

All-in Podcast - Good takes from each of the 4 about the bank meltdown.

 

[Rarity]

I don’t think they are as contradictory as they apear to be. Early in his career Elon did go all in at least three times, zip2, PayPal and SpaceX. Tesla was fiscally conservative compared with most startups, with insistence on positive margins on roadster an early example. It is odd to think of a startup being fiscally prudent, perhaps, but those with positive margins are the ones that survive.

As for Twitter, he did not leverage the deal, but funded with equity and has reached positive cash flow. That is rare and conservative. Weird, perhaps, but not the wild speculation it has been described to be. That entire deal never passed 25% of his net worth and he did not assume new debt to do it.

How is his ‘real estate empire’ financed? Oh he’s, he doesn’t have one.

Listen to his lectures of margin and regular risk warnings.

Then examine Tesla finances, the only public example there is.

A lifetime of startups, turnarounds and working on failing bank sales gives me a slightly unusual view of conservatism, perhaps. Clue on Elon; how many of his many startups have failed? Right, NONE. Taking risk is not so reckless as it appears to be when survival is not in question.

His obsession with disclosing risks and openly discussing survival fears is the stuff of financial conservatism in the midst of business innovation Really proves his financial conservatism.

Finally Bitcoin was a negligible risk when he did it. The loss was immaterial.

Not only have Musk's startups not failed, they have never had even a single down round. The question is whether that is just a reflection of the fact that interest rates had been on a multi-decadal downward trend.

Musk is a complex character and he has evolved over time. He hasn't always been consistent in his approach, even if the results are remarkably consistent. That said, one area where he has been consistently conservative with is spending. His propensity to spend needlessly is more or less zero. He's the god of zero-based budgeting. That makes his businesses and acquisitions less risky than they appear at first blush.

 

[betstarship]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Man, the FDIC moves fast!

 

[oldTAVguy]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Man, the FDIC moves fast!

Please give a short summary for articles behind paywalls.

 

[Tony73]

After watching Tesla grow for years, seeing example after example of the scale of manufacturing they consistently develop, Morgan Stanley released a report where they speculate that Cybertruck production will remain in the 50K/yr range.

As if Tesla would even bother to build a 50K/year production line today.

SMR lambasts them, deservedly.

MS is right in that the North American full size pickup market is an incredibly hard nut to crack. Twenty years ago, Toyota sell a goal of competing in that market with the Tundra and pretty much failed.
Tesla has the advantage that it is entering in the midst of a technological shift but reliability and durability are big with traditional truck buyers and Tesla is unknown in that respect.

MS’s predictions - a vehicle that stagnates around 50,000 a year - are certainly within the set of possible outcomes.

 

[petit_bateau]

MS is right in that the North American full size pickup market is an incredibly hard nut to crack. Twenty years ago, Toyota sell a goal of competing in that market with the Tundra and pretty much failed.
Tesla has the advantage that it is entering in the midst of a technological shift but reliability and durability are big with traditional truck buyers and Tesla is unknown in that respect.

MS’s predictions - a vehicle that stagnates around 50,000 a year - are certainly within the set of possible outcomes.

Out of interest, what did happen with the Tundra, and why was that the outcome ? What did Toyota do wrong ? What can be learnt from that ?

 

[Tony73]

Out of interest, what did happen with the Tundra, and why was that the outcome ? What did Toyota do wrong ? What can be learnt from that ?

The Tundra is a great truck by any
objective measure. But being equal to or marginally better than Ford or Chevy is not enough in that market.

Cybertruck has to be a better value and clearly superior to ford, Chevy and dodge.

 

[Singuy]

The Fed can literally announce a rate pause or drop and that will crash the 10y overnight, which automatically plugs a lot of holes these stressed banks are missing.

U.S. government to take 'material' action to avert fallout from SVB collapse -sources​

https://www.fidelity.com/news/article/company-news/202303121113RTRSNEWSCOMBINED_L1N35K0A9_1