A reading from the Book of TSLA Manipulations, Chapter 6, Verse 5...
"and so it was written that the number shall be 220
and 220 shall be the number..."
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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A reading from the Book of TSLA Manipulations, Chapter 6, Verse 5...
"and so it was written that the number shall be 220
and 220 shall be the number..."
Yes but... there are more steps to recovery than just one. For reference, Tesla is on Step 12.
1. We admitted we were powerless over TESLA — that our lives had become unmanageable.
2. Came to believe that a Power SUCH AS TESLA could restore us to sanity.
3. Made a decision to turn our will and our lives over to ELON MUSK as we understood Him.
4. Made a searching and fearless moral inventory of OUR SUPPLIERS.
5. Admitted IN PUBLIC the exact nature of our wrongs.
6. Were entirely ready to have TESLA remove all these defects of character.
7. Humbly asked ELON MUSK to remove our shortcomings.
8. Made a list of all persons we had harmed, and became willing to make amends to THE SHAREHOLDERS.
9. Made direct amends to such people wherever possible, except when to do so would injure them or THE SHARE PRICE.
10. Continued to take
11. Sought through the BOARD OF DIRECTORS to improve our conscious contact with TESLA as we understood ELON MUSK, praying only for knowledge of his will for us and the power to carry that out.
12. Having had a spiritual awakening as the result of these Steps, we tried to carry this message to OTHER ICE, HYDROGEN, AND HYBRID COMPANIES, and to practice these principles in all our affairs.
petit_bateau
Active Member
I track historical data and have my own future forecasting model, this to a fair degree given the limitations of being a single person.
On the global ICE vehicle fuel usage this is to a first order proportional to the cumulative in-service ICE stock. My data and projections suggest that during the decade to 2030 this is quite a flat curve in absolute terms with ICE fuels probably peaking approx 2025. Th eperiod 2030-2040 is brutal for ICE hydrocarbon fuels mind you with it more than halving. Second order effects (such as newer vehicles generally doing more annual mileage than older vehicles) will probably accelerate that and I think by 2040 we will have seen almost full replacement.
Overall for total global energy use my expectation is that 2025 will likely be peak fossils, which happens to coincide with peak ICE stocks. The actual data and projections from the model I have (built) suggest 2026 would be the year, but my personal observation is that things are moving faster than the model. By 2040 I reckon it has all gone, except perhaps for some residual fossil usage in the last dregs of the ICE fleet.
ROPEC+ are a bunny looking at the oncoming lights of a train in a 17-year long tunnel at this point (2023 - 2040). But most of their nation states go fully bankrupt long before we get to the 17th year. For example there will be an aprox 7% decline in fossils consumption between 2023 and 2030. Whilst that won't be evenly distributed amongst fossil fuel types and nations, in aggregate the 7% volume decline will be there. And in a declining market pricing power gets awfully weak so revenue will likely weaken on aggregate by more than 7%. Again this will be unevenly distributed, and of course profitability of each mine/reservoir will vary; but the outcome will be a lot of fossil bankruptcies and a very disorderly exit. And that is before even beginning to think about the climate change lawsuits that are beginning to build.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
Just read an article from BI, “Why Tesla cars get totaled so easily”…My favorite part of the article was the very end..."Are you a Tesla owner who's struggled with repairs or service? We want to hear from you. Reach the author of this story at...". If you have had good service, please don't bother the author?
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I echo the sentiment of several folks here that Farley does seem to have some decent perspective on the org, and is refreshingly honest about it. It remains to be seen if he can go far enough/fast enough to make a difference, but It's nice to see another CEO be real(ish).
I suspect that the talks with Elon/Tesla leading up to the Supercharging partnership covered a lot more about what is needed to build competitive EV's. I hope/suspect that the next F-150 will incorporate a lot more changes than just the Tesla NACS connector...
Not sure I knew this. Any teardown vids you are aware of?
I suppose I could always go look at Munro's stuff...
Looks like GM is going to be facing more headwinds this year with the UAW.
www.cnbc.com
But maybe GM management will get tough this year-they won't give the UAW anything they didn't ask for.
UAW union outlines lofty demands ahead of critical negotiations with Detroit automakers
UAW leaders publicly laid out their top bargaining issues, including a cost-of-living adjustment, job security and the end of a tiered pay system.
But maybe GM management will get tough this year-they won't give the UAW anything they didn't ask for.
Pretty hilarious reading that. The whole CCS charging debacle certainly looks like something designed by a (dysfunctional) committee. Seems like the only way it could be more of a mess would be for the government to have designed it.The standards group that came up with CCS is PISSED about the Ford/Tesla deal.
CharIN is not thrilled about the Ford/Tesla charging deal - Charged EVs
Ford and Tesla recently reached an agreement that will give Ford EV customers access to Tesla’s network of 12,000 North American Superchargers starting in 2024. What’s more, Ford says it will equip future EVs with Tesla’s NACS charging port starting in 2025. The deal is the talk of the EV...chargedevs.com
Sounds like GM or someone like them wrote that response.
My response to this - if there is a next time, don't build such a crappy standard.
Captkerosene
Member
No, it's a bridge. A bridge bridge, a toll bridge, a draw bridge or maybe a card game for old people ... we'll know on Friday.
Go full Uber bull and sell you house and put that into TSLA. I just checked out the Algarve and currently in Seville eating cured meats and drinking a beer. Probably going to escape Canadian winters for good and be a nomad over here for a while. Plow the house money into TSLA and then buy a place once fsd is solved and the stock price reflects the value. I’m a little nuts.
navguy12
Active Member
I also wonder when BEV will have an acknowledged effect on oil prices; it seems that all I hear about is OPEC+ announcements regarding production cuts, yet (unlike the 1970s or 1980s) the price of a barrel of oil just seems to coast along.I am sure Russia will totally be honest and cut production as they say to help out the team.
I also haven't seen where anyone is measuring the impact of BEV sales on oil. Would be interesting to see as well as a good projection over the next 5-7 years or so. China, followed by Europe, seem to be moving fast on the transition to BEVs. That has to put a huge dent in oil needs.Plus you have people like me (2 car family) that have one EV and one ICE car but almost exclusively drive the EV for everything. Which makes me think that EVsare replacing ICE cars in high mileage use cases.
Sidebar: we have been a two car family, fully EV, for the past three years.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
We already have an accelerated case study: Norway. Norway has pretty much stopped new ICE passenger car sales. Petrol consumption in Norway is declining but very slowly at about 2 to 3% a year. Like musk said, the tail of oil consumption will be very long.I am sure Russia will totally be honest and cut production as they say to help out the team.
I also haven't seen where anyone is measuring the impact of BEV sales on oil. Would be interesting to see as well as a good projection over the next 5-7 years or so. China, followed by Europe, seem to be moving fast on the transition to BEVs. That has to put a huge dent in oil needs.
However if all BEVs do in the short term is cap the growth in oil consumption, it is still a major win for the planet.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Paging @Big Time as I've seen your patent for the Spanking Machine mentioned in the latest episode of Answers With Joe.
Investment related merely because the machine seems to have been running quite well lately, and I'm glad to see Big Time exercising due diligence in protecting his IP for this revolutionary technology.
Investment related merely because the machine seems to have been running quite well lately, and I'm glad to see Big Time exercising due diligence in protecting his IP for this revolutionary technology.
GM continues to lead the way in avoiding a full commitment to EVs. 
CNBC - this morning.
GM to invest more than $1 billion to produce new heavy-duty pickups
CNBC - this morning.
GM to invest more than $1 billion to produce new heavy-duty pickups
petit_bateau
Active Member
You yourself note the evidence in your own phrasing, that the oil price "just coasts along".
My observation is that renewables have been having this effect for quite a while now, in an increasing wedge. As a generalisation global energy use grows at about 1.5% per year and that is fairly steady. However fossils growth has been falling and is now only approx 0.4% and declining. This is precisely why the price signal for fossils is not going completely berserk, even during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The other approx 1% of total is of course coming from renewables, and that share is increasing.
And in the next few years that 0.4% annual growth for fossils will turn negative. That will be a real popcorn moment. Coming soon.
Note that in this table the % annual growth of each energy type is being shown by comparison to that type's previous year. So you can't just sum the column to get the 1.3% (for 2023) as that is a misreading of the table. However what you can do is to note that total 2023 growth is expected (by me) to be 1.3% and to note that fossils are only growing 0.4%, and therefore the vast bulk of the growth is coming out of renewables, i.e. about 0.9%. This is something of a simplification and one needs to go over to the absolute numbers if one wishes to be more precise, but I think this table gets the general point across best. To really delve into it is more complex as one has to take reservoir declines, and obsolete lant & equipment and so on into account.
GM continues to lead the way in avoiding a full commitment to EVs.
CNBC - this morning.
GM to invest more than $1 billion to produce new heavy-duty pickups
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
All my life when riding a roller coaster I had always found the uphill parts the most boring. The clank, clank, clank as it made the way to the top and then experiencing the eventual drop that makes the heart pound was the big payoff.
It is unknown to me what has changed over the years, but now my experience is just the opposite. The roller coaster I've been spending the most time with lately has become a much bigger thrill on the plodding uphill than it has been on the descent.
Anyone else experience this reversal of thrill-inflection-points on your favorite roller coaster?
For your safety, buckle up and HODL until the ride comes to a complete stop
It is unknown to me what has changed over the years, but now my experience is just the opposite. The roller coaster I've been spending the most time with lately has become a much bigger thrill on the plodding uphill than it has been on the descent.
Anyone else experience this reversal of thrill-inflection-points on your favorite roller coaster?
For your safety, buckle up and HODL until the ride comes to a complete stop
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