Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Christine69420]

Wouldn't it make sense to start producing Highland Model 3 in Texas?

I would think so.

They are building the Y
Cybertruck is close

Two more lines?

Model 3 and the Semi?

Or Model 3 and S/X so that Fremont can get some space freed up?

 

[Captkerosene]

Elon can say he is willing to license FSD, but in practice (IMHO) it will never happen. While the value of the car will go to zero and all the value will be in FSD, you still need the tight hardware/sensor integration. So, what will we have, Tesla making parts and molecules and shipping them to Ford and others to assemble and rebrand? That would only make them more expensive than Teslas for the same (at best) self-driving experience. The only case where this might work is specialty/niche vehicles that Tesla has no interest in building. But, they would be expensive and still need to be integrated by the Tesla team for FSD to work.

Farley said they had 150 different modules with different software. That they didn't even own the IP on those. That the next gen Ford would resolve those issues (IIRC). That Ford isn't good at software. Aaaaand, he's publicly laying out how big a problem they have. Setting the stage for a deal? What other solution is there than licensing Tesla tech? Do they want to waste tens of Billions failing (like VW) to develop their own software/hardware first or get on with it and work out a deal with Elon? (Also, I think Tesla would reserve RT/commercial trucking for themselves.)

A deal like this could make Tesla the "standard" in software and controllers for much of the industry. A deal like this would probably get leaked ahead of time. Maybe we could see several 10% days in a row. Just sayin'.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Farley said they had 150 different modules with different software. That they didn't even own the IP on those. That the next gen Ford would resolve those issues (IIRC). That Ford isn't good at software. Aaaaand, he's publicly laying out how big a problem they have. Setting the stage for a deal? What other solution is there than licensing Tesla tech? Do they want to waste tens of Billions failing (like VW) to develop their own software/hardware first or get on with it and work out a deal with Elon? (Also, I think Tesla would reserve RT/commercial trucking for themselves.)

A deal like this could make Tesla the "standard" in software and controllers for much of the industry. A deal like this would probably get leaked ahead of time. Maybe we could see several 10% days in a row. Just sayin'.

I really think Tesla is setting themselves up to be a tier 1 supplier for a 48V architecture. That is a LOT of accessories, and I suspect that is one reason why Mexico GF is so big. All these relatively cheap components will be made there.

 

[Singuy]

Wouldn't it make sense to start producing Highland Model 3 in Texas?

I wouldn't make sense to produce two version of the Model 3 that even looks different.

I'm guessing it's the Semi line. Didn't Elon say Nevada is the pilot line for the Semi and Texas will have the production line?

 

[FireMedic]

I've kind of expected they had a Highland line coming on in Texas. Would not surprise me a bit.

Also would not be surprised is once that Texas line ramps; they’ll tear out and re-engineer the M3 line in Fremont too. It’s overdue.

 

[FireMedic]

I wouldn't make sense to produce two version of the Model 3 that even looks different.

I'm guessing it's the Semi line. Didn't Elon say Nevada is the pilot line for the Semi and Texas will have the production line?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1665825908261896192

 

[Captkerosene]

I really think Tesla is setting themselves up to be a tier 1 supplier for a 48V architecture. That is a LOT of accessories, and I suspect that is one reason why Mexico GF is so big. All these relatively cheap components will be made there.

One supplier (Tesla) who happens to be a great manufacturer or 150 reluctant partners trying to cobble together a new system? Hey, a guy can dream can't he?

 

[MP3Mike]

Farley said they had 150 different modules with different software. That they didn't even own the IP on those. That the next gen Ford would resolve those issues (IIRC). That Ford isn't good at software. Aaaaand, he's publicly laying out how big a problem they have. Setting the stage for a deal? What other solution is there than licensing Tesla tech? Do they want to waste tens of Billions failing (like VW) to develop their own software/hardware first or get on with it and work out a deal with Elon? (Also, I think Tesla would reserve RT/commercial trucking for themselves.)

Shoot, look at how long it is taking Tesla to bring 100% of the ECUs they use in-house... It isn't something you do in one generation of vehicle, unless you buy it all as a package that someone else has already made.

 

[MP3Mike]

I wouldn't make sense to produce two version of the Model 3 that even looks different.

It could if they were marketed/priced differently. Or it would be the way to transition Model 3 production to the Highland variant without any production downtime. Once the old orders are fulfilled from Fremont, and the GigaTexas Model 3 lines is ramped up to full speed you can shut down the Fremont Model 3 line, so that the space could be used to build a lower volume vehicle. (Like maybe the Roadster.)

I'm guessing it's the Semi line. Didn't Elon say Nevada is the pilot line for the Semi and Texas will have the production line?

Tesla said that the current Semi line in Nevada, but not at the GigaNevada factory, is the pilot line, and that the production line would be built at the GigaNevada factory. (Joint announcement with the Nevada governor if I recall.) So highly unlikely that a Tesla Semi production line would be almost ready at GigaTexas. (Or even started.)

 

[wipster]

Wouldn't it make sense to start producing Highland Model 3 in Texas?

And... wouldn't it be great that in the NACS deal with Ford Elon got the letter E so Tesla can finally be SEXY...

(Well, sexier)

 

[mongo]

And... wouldn't it be great that in the NACS deal with Ford Elon got the letter E so Tesla can finally be SEXY...

(Well, sexier)

Except Ford Model e is their electric vehicle division.
https://www.ford.com/ford-blue-ford-model-e/

 

[Carl Raymond]

Interesting episode from SMR where ARK Invest compares how, in the past, hardware gets the first recognition and later software companies applying their talent to the new hardware eventually become dominant in company/earnings growth.

Growth of Intel vs Microsoft; and, ARM vs Apple iPhone/Google Android; then how the future can follow suit with nVidia vs Tesla growth following this pattern in the AI space. Noting how nVidia just did 25X market cap and extrapolating this to indicate Tesla's AI future.

I must be missing something. I keep reading that Nvidia make chips, but google tells me that Nvidia chips are made by TSMC. So their lead is in chip design? I also read that chip design is, these days, performed by AI.

So where is Nvidia’s moat? I can’t see it. Either Tesla or Apple or any other player capable of circuit board assembly and big enough to place a fat order with TSMC can leap frog Nvidia, no? Dojo, comes to mind.

To lead in AI and stay there requires a data flywheel that nobody else has, like FSD and soon, Optimus. I feel like I must be wrong on this, otherwise the whole market is barking up the wrong tree.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Its good to see the stock in the green, but we are a long way down from previous highs. TBH, the stock might be stuck in the 200-250 range for quite a while until there is major news that hits the numbers.
I think a decent Q2 could definitely help, but the price war will not be helping here, although there is a chance this means that Tesla Energy suddenly stands out on the bottom line and analysts start to notice what is going on there?

It has been suspiciously quiet on the semi front. I presume that we are in the production-line-build-out period, and that the current deliveries have proven ok (else why even build the line right?) and we are awaiting proper scale production. Anyone know when? I'm assuming this year, as its a relatively known construction method compared to the Cybertruck.

• Big upcoming events as I see them:
• Q2 deliveries
• Q2 financials
• First cybetrucks for employees
• First cybetruck public deliveries and teardowns (This is the big one for 2023)
• Semi ramp up

I think stuff like dojo, FSD, optimus, Mexico etc will have zero impact in 2023. Maybe something in 2024 if things go well.
I still assert that anybody selling stock before cybertruck deliveries will regret it massively.

I‘m not writing off Optimus for impact this year. I start with the assumption that Tesla bot is more capable/dexterous than Atlas. To become awesome it lacks only great software.

Dev’t of this software will happen at a cracking pace, given the best team and the lack of extreme caution that FSD demands.

All it takes is one viral video of Optimus showing off skills, both learning and output, reasons why it’s worth $5k/mth to rent, and we’re off to the races.

 

[Dutchie]

Speaking of the legacy automakers and software, here’s Jim Farley on why it is so difficult for those automakers to write software:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1665609960577802242

This who interview is really fascinating. There are hints that Ford might split up the business between an iCE business and an EV business.

Jim also reiterated his warning about Tesla commoditizing the product by constant lowering the price and having such a narrow product scope. I don’t know what to think of that. There is truth to that statement but on the other hand I don’t know how the software FSD/Robotaxi is coming along so that it can be implemented in a short timeframe.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I must be missing something. I keep reading that Nvidia make chips, but google tells me that Nvidia chips are made by TSMC. So their lead is in chip design? I also read that chip design is, these days, performed by AI.

So where is Nvidia’s moat? I can’t see it. Either Tesla or Apple or any other player capable of circuit board assembly and big enough to place a fat order with TSMC can leap frog Nvidia, no? Dojo, comes to mind.

To lead in AI and stay there requires a data flywheel that nobody else has, like FSD and soon, Optimus. I feel like I must be wrong on this, otherwise the whole market is barking up the wrong tree.

They make more than chips. They make the driver software that runs on those chips, which it tightly tied into their low level AI programming language, CUDA, which they also own. And then their boards use a proprietary high speed network called NVLink along with proprietary switches for same. A huge amount of the AI software ecosystem is essentially tied to NVidia this way.

Nvidia is also now starting to roll out entire rack systems for AI.

They have a formidable moat. Not insurmountable, but it’ll take years for anyone to even compete with them at a serious level.

Tesla’s Dojo is the only system I’ve seen which comes close. But Tesla hasn’t written all the software stack pieces needed to sell Dojo as a standalone system. It would take Tesla a year to do that if they wanted to, and then many years to muscle NVidia in the marketplace. Not sure Tesla even wants to do that. I suspect Tesla will just use Dojo and other AI systems in house for FSD and Teslabot, and then years down the road, make it available to others if they have a technological lead, which isn’t assured since NVidia isn’t standing still.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I‘m not writing off Optimus for impact this year. I start with the assumption that Tesla bot is more capable/dexterous than Atlas. To become awesome it lacks only great software.

Dev’t of this software will happen at a cracking pace, given the best team and the lack of extreme caution that FSD demands.

All it takes is one viral video of Optimus showing off skills, both learning and output, reasons why it’s worth $5k/mth to rent, and we’re off to the races.

No Optimus for 2023. Even if the software and hardware were ready (neither is close), Tesla would need to build a factory for mass production. So MAYBE 2025.

Atlas isn’t even in the same galaxy as Optimus. It is a one off, not mass manufacturable, no advanced AI (lots of custom code), heavy, power hungry, and their company is set up to win defense contracts, not to make a 100,000 bots.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Ok, this is something new, I always though GA2 and GA3 would be a second Model Y and Cybertruck lines, Joe knows something we don't?

Read a few other tweets above and bellow this one

https://twitter.com/x/status/1665819374073131017

Does a GA line use much (electric) energy? I’d have thought not. Wondering if the timing is to coincide with commissioning of the new switch yard, the megapacks, the solar rooftop build out.
But then, more output means more castings. If the furnaces are electric… it all ties in.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

All clear sign to BUY more!!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

All clear sign to BUY more!!

View attachment 944286

Time to go all in on Margin!!!!

 

[Carl Raymond]

No Optimus for 2023. Even if the software and hardware were ready (neither is close), Tesla would need to build a factory for mass production. So MAYBE 2025.

Atlas isn’t even in the same galaxy as Optimus. It is a one off, not mass manufacturable, no advanced AI (lots of custom code), heavy, power hungry, and their company is set up to win defense contracts, not to make a 100,000 bots.

Thanks for setting me straight on Nvidia. Great answer.

On Optimus, I will still be watching out for that viral video. The market is forward looking - only needs clear proof of humanoid robot concept and it gets priced in. Actual profits can come later.