Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Musskiah]

@Knightshade I see. I thought "Well, fsdb is being delivered right now to those no-interior-camera car..." like it is being rolled out for the first time (you probably would have said rolled out in retrospect). The first part of my comment was made with respect to that. The second part of my comment was simply to say that the non-camera FSD nags far less. To elaborate: the wheel confirmation nag in my 2021 MX seems to be phasing out, as the duration between nags has certainly gotten much less frequent over the past year. In contrast, in the 2022 MY with interior camera, the wheel nags are much more sensitive and frequent (even when I shade block my eyes). Therefore, I tend to think (read: speculate - as we all are right now) that when the wheel nag is removed, it would be across the entire lineup, camera or no camera. I may be wrong, my goal is to be less wrong in the future

 

[Singuy]

It doesn't all depend on 4680's. 4680 production ramp is only one ingredient currently mixing in the pot for Tesla and it's margins/COGS.

The increase of 2170 equipped Y's and 3's being delivered in the US in Q2 over Q1 thanks to the combination of increased Austin production and Austin/Fremont no longer supplying Canada could have material impacts on COGS. Tesla recognizes the credit for 2170 packs/cell through COGS from Panasonic.

The point of my post is that there' so many ingredients in the pot right now for Tesla when it comes to gross margin and operating margin, that it's really pointless to try and put out an estimate for them. It's pointless to be bullish or bearish.

All of the things I listed out could possibly be things that Tesla wasn't able to realize in Q2 and thus gross margins may come in lower than Q1. Tesla also could have realized a ton of things on that list and gross margins bounce back above 20%. I'm just noting the overwhelming trend I've seen on Twitter and even here from bulls bracing for impact when it comes to Q2 margins.

One thing we have to watch out for is this valley in which margin drag products could be improving due to increase ramp but now makes up a higher mix.

This Q could really go either way, but I believe next 2 Q is much better.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Ok, since I started the joke about the Swiss boat let me explain a bit now that it's officially the weekend.

A surprisingly high number of times that Swedes happen to discuss Americans, America or really anything relating to the US someone will mention that "they don't even know that Sweden and Switzerland is not the same country". Or some variation of that.

It's a pet peeve for many. A favorite way to feel superior to "foreigners". The less you like the US the more often you'll bring it up but you will hear if from pretty much anyone at random times. This is not a new saying. I've heard it all my life.

Americans do confuse Sweden and Switzerland at times. But it's really not that common. I've been to the US probably 50 times and lived there for months at numerous times over the last four decades. I've had thousands of interactions where Americans asked where I'm from. It´s only happened a handful of times that Switzerland comes up. Maybe my look is Nordic enough that no one will mistake me for a Swiss but still. It's not that common.

Still only last night I heard someone say this and I tried to tell the person that it was not really that common and the number of Swedes that would confuse Maryland and Massachusetts was probably much higher. Or Arizona and Arkansas etc.

So I really just wanted to make a lighthearted but somewhat frustrated joke when a poster that gives Arizona as location called the Candela a Swiss boat.

Sorry to the mods for the 20+ posts making various totally unrelated jokes about other Nordic countries. Please let this finally be the finnish end of this.

Mod: Amen.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

In the recent spaces for X.ai, Elon mentions that he can't go into specifics, but Tesla has found that the solution to AGI was much simpler than they initially thought. He goes on to stipulate that they'll still need a lot of compute and they're not trying to solve AGI with a laptop, but he reiterates that they've discovered the answer is not as difficult as they thought it would be.

Listening to this I had the feeling they've made some serious advances and with the impending ramp of DOJO, I continue to be excited for Tesla's future.

 

[cliff harris]

Is this new? (src:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1679839237729042433

)

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

One thing we have to watch out for is this valley in which margin drag products could be improving due to increase ramp but now makes up a higher mix.

This Q could really go either way, but I believe next 2 Q is much better.

I agree in regards to Q3/Q4. Those will be quarters where both Berlin/Austin will clearly be at the 5k/week run rate for the entire quarter and I expect Tesla will be focusing switch from expanding the ramp to making the production lines as efficient as possible. I think we'll see something similar to what we saw in 2021 where margins continually increased while ASP declined and it was all due to the dynamic of Model Y production going from ramp up phase to efficient production phase.

 

[petit_bateau]

Is this new? (src:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1679839237729042433

)
View attachment 956304

Nice photos.

Is there actually anything new about the overall arrangement and structural functionality of the external panels on the Cybertruck vs (say) the Y ?

I get that Cybertruck external panels may be relatively planar, and perhaps folded rather than stamped. And be unpainted stainless vs painted dipped mild steel or painted aluminium.

But from a structural functional perspective (i.e. in terms of transmitting loads) is there actually anything different vs a Y ?

Or is there any real difference vs a Y in terms of how they get fastened onto the inner structure of castings, frames, inner skins, battery assembly, etc ?

 

[willow_hiller]

Listening to this I had the feeling they've made some serious advances and with the impending ramp of DOJO, I continue to be excited for Tesla's future.

I would recommend narrow interpretations of statements like these. Elon's mind works on another level, and as a result he often omits important qualifiers that would completely change the meaning for most people. He's undoubtedly a genius, but that doesn't mean he's great at clearly and accurately communicating his thoughts.

For e.g. when Elon says "level 5 autonomy," he's often leaves out qualifiers like "feature complete" or "non-zero probability of."

And beyond those general words of caution, I think it's likely that when Elon says "AGI," he's referring to the "Foundational World Model" that Alluswamy spoke about at his last CVPR keynote. It's "general" in the sense that it's a vision model capable of understanding the world that can be used for multiple tasks, but it doesn't fit the definition of AGI as most people use it.

 

[EQC_]

...
- More US production going to US deliveries and thus further reduction of COGS from batteries from Panasonic and more credit revenue directly to Tesla from increased 4680 battery production. (Q2 was the first quarter where all Canada deliveries came from Shanghai, not Austin/Fremont)
...

Related:
Do we know how/when the IRA credits for battery and battery pack production get to Tesla and/or Panasonic? Is this recognized in "real time"? Or does Tesla have to wait until some tax filing date and then gets to recognize a whole year's worth of value? Or is everybody still waiting for the government to do something to enable the value of the credits retroactively? And, timing-wise, would there be a significant difference for the Panasonic/Nevada produced 2170's vs. the Tesla-produced 4680's?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Related:
Do we know how/when the IRA credits for battery and battery pack production get to Tesla and/or Panasonic? Is this recognized in "real time"? Or does Tesla have to wait until some tax filing date and then gets to recognize a whole year's worth of value? Or is everybody still waiting for the government to do something to enable the value of the credits retroactively? And, timing-wise, would there be a significant difference for the Panasonic/Nevada produced 2170's vs. the Tesla-produced 4680's?

Tesla talked about it on Q1 earnings call and pointed it out in the deck. Panasonic receives the pack/cell credit directly and Tesla's portion flows through to Tesla through reduced 2170 COGS.

Panasonic/Tesla have already started seeing their credits. It's all real-time based on what a produced/sold within that quarter.

 

[2daMoon]

Nice photos.

View attachment 956308

Is there actually anything new about the overall arrangement and structural functionality of the external panels on the Cybertruck vs (say) the Y ?

I get that Cybertruck external panels may be relatively planar, and perhaps folded rather than stamped. And be unpainted stainless vs painted dipped mild steel or painted aluminium.

But from a structural functional perspective (i.e. in terms of transmitting loads) is there actually anything different vs a Y ?

Or is there any real difference vs a Y in terms of how they get fastened onto the inner structure of castings, frames, inner skins, battery assembly, etc ?

Cybertruck's exterior panels may be ~3mm thick. That should add quite a bit of rigidity and prevent damage from door dings, shopping carts, and 9mm firearms.

This would be different from the Y.

 

[Singuy]

XAI space with Elon happening right now.

Apparently 50 mins ago Elon said they solved FSD, or at least according to the twitterverse. I didn't hear it myself so it's best to go back and listen to the recording.

https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1vAGRAAmdoqKl?s=20

 

[Sparky4life]

Note that the interior cameras can’t see the wheel.

 

[Stretch2727]

Nice photos.

View attachment 956308

Is there actually anything new about the overall arrangement and structural functionality of the external panels on the Cybertruck vs (say) the Y ?

I get that Cybertruck external panels may be relatively planar, and perhaps folded rather than stamped. And be unpainted stainless vs painted dipped mild steel or painted aluminium.

But from a structural functional perspective (i.e. in terms of transmitting loads) is there actually anything different vs a Y ?

Or is there any real difference vs a Y in terms of how they get fastened onto the inner structure of castings, frames, inner skins, battery assembly, etc ?

I had the same thought.

I understand there is a significant need for torsional strength to handle loads in the bed when on uneven surfaces. One reason for the ladder frame on all pickups and the bed always separate from the cab to allow some torsional bending.

The model Y quarter panels do provide some torsional strength. It just does not need to be nearly as strong as a truck.

Although this video is the extreme case it gives you the idea.

It appears the rear portion of the exoskeleton will help provide this strength. Where as on a regular pickup the bed is just along for the ride. With no gap on the Cybertruck between the bed and cab it had better be stiff to support a 3500 lb payload.

 

[AndrewZ]

XAI space with Elon happening right now.

Apparently 50 mins ago Elon said they solved FSD, or at least according to the twitterverse. I didn't hear it myself so it's best to go back and listen to the recording.

https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1vAGRAAmdoqKl?s=20

Yes it’s just that “solving FSD” does not mean taking owership of the driving task and unlocking all the benefits of robotaxis like massively increased utilization, your vehicle driving people around and generating revenue while you work or sleep, etc.

”Solving FSD” means a Level 2 ADAS that will drive you around while you are ready to intervene/disengage in a split second, the person behind the wheel owns the driving task and the risk.

 

[Singuy]

Yes it’s just that “solving FSD” does not mean taking owership of the driving task and unlocking all the benefits of robotaxis like massively increased utilization, your vehicle driving people around and generating revenue while you work or sleep, etc.

”Solving FSD” means a Level 2 ADAS that will drive you around while you are ready to intervene/disengage in a split second, the person behind the wheel owns the driving task and the risk.

Not solving, solved. Past tense

 

[AndrewZ]

Not solving, solved. Past tense

Yeah it’s “solved“ for owners/users when it’s freely available to everyone who purchased, as a Level 2 ADAS that requires a drivers butt in the seat and eyes pointed forward.

That’s what Elon actually means when he says these things, though I’d love to be proven wrong.

 

[Singuy]

Yeah it’s “solved“ for owners/users when it’s freely available to everyone who purchased, as a Level 2 ADAS that requires a drivers butt in the seat and eyes pointed forward.

That’s what Elon actually means when he says these things, though I’d love to be proven wrong.

Well he did tweet v12 won't be beta. That was the first hint that v12 solved fsd.

 

[willow_hiller]

Yeah it’s “solved“ for owners/users when it’s freely available to everyone who purchased, as a Level 2 ADAS that requires a drivers butt in the seat and eyes pointed forward.

That’s what Elon actually means when he says these things, though I’d love to be proven wrong.

No need to be this cynical. Natural language was "solved" in the form of Transformers in 2017 with the paper "Attention is all you need," but it took until 2023 until we got ChatGPT.

 

[AndrewZ]

No need to be this cynical. Natural language was "solved" in the form of Transformers in 2017 with the paper "Attention is all you need," but it took until 2023 until we got ChatGPT.

Is that what the parallels are here? This is for neural networks right and not the movie franchise

I'm definitely cynical about this after watching the program very closely for quite a while now but am mostly just wanting to keep expectations at a reasonable level. There is no way Elon believes Tesla robotaxis this year will be out driving themselves around, generating $30k/year revenue for owners, massively increasing utilization, and the other benefits extolled at Autonomy Day 2019... But that is what people picture when they hear this stuff.

Autosteer on City Streets when released to the broader fleet will remain a Level 2 ADAS, and that was always the plan. After that's done, some new iterative processes will begin with the goal of achieving something Level 3+.