Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Knightshade]

Oh, OK, I assumed you meant FSD delivery would be problematic to cars without interior camera. It won’t, but FSD beta may be off limits for those if camera is used for driver monitoring - no problem since beta access is not really commercially contracted though…

Well, fsdb is being delivered right now to those no-interior-camera cars-- it'd just be a question of what happens to them if they 'remove' the wheel nag check without anything to fall back on... (and what gets delivered to owners of such cars who buy FSD later when it's still level 2 but city streets is in the wide-release build) -- the simplest answer is they keep the wheel nag... there'll be some S/X owners mad their twice-the-price tesla is more naggy than a 3/Y but I don't see any practical alternative- retrofitting interior cameras makes little sense for Tesla.

 

[jerry33]

Well, fsdb is being delivered right now to those no-interior-camera cars-- it'd just be a question of what happens to them if they 'remove' the wheel nag check without anything to fall back on... (and what gets delivered to owners of such cars who buy FSD later when it's still level 2 but city streets is in the wide-release build) -- the simplest answer is they keep the wheel nag... there'll be some S/X owners mad their twice-the-price tesla is more naggy than a 3/Y but I don't see any practical alternative- retrofitting interior cameras makes little sense for Tesla.

As an X owner, I don't mind the nag on trips. I wish I had the yoke though because that's supposed to be easier to keep pressure on the wheel (Not enough however to purchase a new X at this time.)

 

[Nocturnal]

Pierre Ferragu is pretty bearish on earnings. Feels low but I don't make earnings specific bets either way.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1679907075965571072

 

[Knightshade]

And GM just delayed the Blazar to Q1 2024. It's like they're Dodging EV sales loses.

This is incorrect-- they only delayed the high performance SS version... the cheaper RS and 2LT will be sold this year.... in fact the first batch has already shipped to the US....

First Chevy Blazer EV en route to the US as GM ramps production to 65 units per hour

The first Chevy Blazer EV model, built at General Motor’s Ramos Arizpe plant in Mexico, is now on its way...

electrek.co

 

[AndrewZ]

I have a feeling Tesla's market share percent in dollars would be lower than percent of units sold considering many competitors relative pricing in 2023, or at least some of them would go way up. The ASP for Audi, Mercedes, BMW are likely up there and brands like Rivian are probably also high. Porsche accounts for 0.6% in that table but the average Taycan is probably selling for $150k lol. Seems most are figuring a ~$45k ASP for Tesla in Q2.

Profit share would be a different story

 

[Dikkie Dik]

While we’re all waiting for CyberTruck and Highland here’s some nice footage from Zanegler of Semi powering past some ICE trucks uphill.

I kinda get why Tslaq thinks its CGI

https://twitter.com/x/status/1679852113273434112

 

[SOULPEDL]

Pierre Ferragu is pretty bearish on earnings. Feels low but I don't make earnings specific bets either way.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1679907075965571072

It's the cautious view many appreciate but not the whole picture IMO. To exclude FSD completely is typical old school. Charts are 100% auto data which is fair (if that's all we think Tesla is working on at the moment ). So what can we predict if we throw in Megapacks and Dojo FSD (as if we were NVidia or something equivalent). Do margins rise or stay flat?

To quote Pierre: "In the long run, we still see auto gross margins, excluding FSD, at 25%."

 

[2daMoon]

I am Scandinavian/Nordic, but have no clue what you ar talking about here …?

It is all about where to charge a BEV boat (BEB?) in Switzerland, of course.

 

[CorneliusXX]

The securities themselves are backed by leases, seems like a weird setup if they were using this backed by leases to set up financing for more loans/leases.

Tesla has also been doing this as far back as 2017 so not sure why it would result in a different outcome than the previous sales that were assumedly used for expansion, but who knows.

Source: Tesla takes another stab at ABS deal | IFR

This is just a standard lease/loan securitisation. All major automakers have similar programs. It is not to fund "growth" (i.e. tesla CapEx) but rather to refinance auto leases/loans out to institutional investors.

Tesla has a subsidiary financing arm that funds leases as vehicles are delivered and finances them through lines of credit/funding warehouses from banks. Once the drawn balance gets big enough they take the loans financed through the lines of credit and sell them into a new bond issuance like the one you see here. The net cash position of Tesla issuing this bond is virtually unchanged as the debt raised goes into paying off the lines of credit.

 

[Musskiah]

Well, fsdb is being delivered right now to those no-interior-camera cars-- it'd just be a question of what happens to them if they 'remove' the wheel nag check without anything to fall back on... (and what gets delivered to owners of such cars who buy FSD later when it's still level 2 but city streets is in the wide-release build) -- the simplest answer is they keep the wheel nag... there'll be some S/X owners mad their twice-the-price tesla is more naggy than a 3/Y but I don't see any practical alternative- retrofitting interior cameras makes little sense....
----
I would like to set the record straight on this: My Feb 2021 (just prior to refresh) MX has no interior cams and I have been beta testing in it since early 2022, so non-interior-camera cars are not just entering beta. The releases have been in lockstep with my 2022 MYP which does have an interior cam, both cars currently on 11.4.4 FSDɓ. I can also attest the MX nags far less fequently than the MYP, and I find it to be a smoother experince. Just IMHO

 

[Musskiah]

I would like to set the record straight on this: My Feb 2021 (just prior to refresh) MX has no interior cams and I have been beta testing in it since early 2022, so non-interior-camera cars are not just entering beta. The releases have been in lockstep with my 2022 MYP which does have an interior cam, both cars currently on 11.4.4 FSDɓ. I can also attest the MX nags far less fequently than the MYP, and I find it to be a smoother experince. Just IMHO

(I have been lurking here since 2017 but I just started posting. Forgive my inability to properly reply to quotations)

 

[Sparky4life]

Well, it's not really "no touch" that's being suggested, it's "no nag". It's still possible that the system will still confirm you to have your hands on the wheel via camera, as the Tweet mentions.

Currently it doesn’t care where your hands are, but it does care where your head and eyes are pointed and it gets mad quick if you are looking down at your phone

 

[Sparky4life]

I think that holding the wheel is unlikely. Omar and others tend to keep their hands off the wheel. Makes for a better video and Elon will be keen on that. Remember he thinks fsd will come out of beta this year so no hands is a solid step in that direction. At that point having hands on the wheel will only complicate insurance accountability.

Omar has “Elon mode” which removes the steering wheel nag. This is only available to insiders and Omar is the only one I know of.

 

[Mengy]

Omar has “Elon mode” which removes the steering wheel nag. This is only available to insiders and Omar is the only one I know of.

No, he simply uses his leg and knee to apply pressure against the steering wheel.

 

[Knightshade]

I would like to set the record straight on this: My Feb 2021 (just prior to refresh) MX has no interior cams and I have been beta testing in it since early 2022, so non-interior-camera cars are not just entering beta. The releases have been in lockstep with my 2022 MYP which does have an interior cam, both cars currently on 11.4.4 FSDɓ. I can also attest the MX nags far less fequently than the MYP, and I find it to be a smoother experince. Just IMHO

(I have been lurking here since 2017 but I just started posting. Forgive my inability to properly reply to quotations)

I'm unclear what record you think you're straightening here? Nobody has suggested anything different from your post.

What was being discussed was the fact Elon suggested they planned to remove the steering wheel check, and what that would mean for verifying driver safety and attentiveness since the interior camera can't see the steering wheel, and many S/X cars have no interior camera at all.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Practically every Tesla bull out there is cautioning about Q2 earnings and margin hit and to stay focused on the future.

I guess I'm quite alone in the camp that thinks it's entirely possible that gross margins not only maintain Q1's gm but can be back above 20% this quarter.

Let's say for the sake of argument, ASP did drop $3k from Q1.

Do I think the combination these things could offset that?

- Austin/Berlin materially higher production
- Shanghai production being higher than Q1
- Much higher S/X sales,
- Drop in COGS
- Continued improvement in efficiency (same/more cars produced with less labor hours, the trend Tesla has been focusing on recently)
- More US production going to US deliveries and thus further reduction of COGS from batteries from Panasonic and more credit revenue directly to Tesla from increased 4680 battery production. (Q2 was the first quarter where all Canada deliveries came from Shanghai, not Austin/Fremont)
- Mixture of more sales going to higher trims
- More % of sales going to Y thanks to Austin/Berlin production making up more % of total production/deliveries (Y being the higher margin vehicle at higher ASP too)

Some of these would actually keep ASP from falling as much, mainly the last two. Now I'm not saying Q2's gross margin will be 20%. But the ingredients are there for it to be possible. A lot of will be determined by when vehicles were produced at Austin/Berlin, at what weekly production ramp they were produced at, and if the vehicles built at the higher production weekly rates were able to be sold in time for Q2. Same with reduction in COGS, we don't know if Tesla was able to realize reduction in their COGS at the beginning, middle, or end of Q2.

 

[Sparky4life]

No, he simply uses his leg and knee to apply pressure against the steering wheel.

He used to but that is no longer the case

 

[Sparky4life]

Description of “Elon mode”

Tesla hacker discovers secret “Elon Mode” for hands-free Full Self-Driving

Elon Musk might be driving FSD hands-free.

www.theverge.com

 

[Singuy]

Practically every Tesla bull out there is cautioning about Q2 earnings and margin hit and to stay focused on the future.

I guess I'm quite alone in the camp that thinks it's entirely possible that gross margins not only maintain Q1's gm but can be back above 20% this quarter.

Let's say for the sake of argument, ASP did drop $3k from Q1.

Do I think the combination these things could offset that?

- Austin/Berlin materially higher production
- Shanghai production being higher than Q1
- Much higher S/X sales,
- Drop in COGS
- Continued improvement in efficiency (same/more cars produced with less labor hours, the trend Tesla has been focusing on recently)
- More US production going to US deliveries and thus further reduction of COGS from batteries from Panasonic and more credit revenue directly to Tesla from increased 4680 battery production. (Q2 was the first quarter where all Canada deliveries came from Shanghai, not Austin/Fremont)
- Mixture of more sales going to higher trims
- More % of sales going to Y thanks to Austin/Berlin production making up more % of total production/deliveries (Y being the higher margin vehicle at higher ASP too)

Some of these would actually keep ASP from falling as much, mainly the last two. Now I'm not saying Q2's gross margin will be 20%. But the ingredients are there for it to be possible. A lot of will be determined by when vehicles were produced at Austin/Berlin, at what weekly production ramp they were produced at, and if the vehicles built at the higher production weekly rates were able to be sold in time for Q2. Same with reduction in COGS, we don't know if Tesla was able to realize reduction in their COGS at the beginning, middle, or end of Q2.

All depends on 4680s. Apparently that's a secret margin drag no one really understands or ask about. Tesla talks about it but people just mainly ignores it.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

All depends on 4680s. Apparently that's a secret margin drag no one really understands or ask about. Tesla talks about it but people just mainly ignores it.

It doesn't all depend on 4680's. 4680 production ramp is only one ingredient currently mixing in the pot for Tesla and it's margins/COGS.

The increase of 2170 equipped Y's and 3's being delivered in the US in Q2 over Q1 thanks to the combination of increased Austin production and Austin/Fremont no longer supplying Canada could have material impacts on COGS. Tesla recognizes the credit for 2170 packs/cell through COGS from Panasonic.

The point of my post is that there' so many ingredients in the pot right now for Tesla when it comes to gross margin and operating margin, that it's really pointless to try and put out an estimate for them. It's pointless to be bullish or bearish.

All of the things I listed out could possibly be things that Tesla wasn't able to realize in Q2 and thus gross margins may come in lower than Q1. Tesla also could have realized a ton of things on that list and gross margins bounce back above 20%. I'm just noting the overwhelming trend I've seen on Twitter and even here from bulls bracing for impact when it comes to Q2 margins.