Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Usain]

He never addresses points that demonstrate facts contrary to his vision for stock price , he has no idea how Tesla plans to make money with RT, he is just about hype. He doesn't understand AI, nor does he understand anything about Waymo. He claims Waymo will not be able to compete and will go under.....as if Google has ever had issues competing and claims that expensive vehicles will make Waymo uncompetitive- it is such a laughable failure of an analysis that I can only assume he is a paid shill. Heck google was even able to compete with Apple on smart phones (and yes extending that to RT is a very neat idea upon which to have a real conversation thus it should take place in the AI thread).

I don't take the time to address each and every point. But if there is something in particular you want me to discuss I'll be happy to give my opinion.

To be clear, my claim that Tesla will win on cost is not solely based on the fact that Tesla's vehicles will cost a lot less than Waymo. That's the smaller part of Tesla's cost advantage.

The main advantage Tesla will have is superior AI. An end-to-end system that makes better decisions will mean a lot fewer humans have to be involved with running the network. It won't be geofenced. It won't require extensive mapping and re-mapping. It won't require so many support personnel behind the scenes. It won't need as much human intervention.

Thus, Tesla's cost will be immensely lower. Lower cost for Tesla will mean Waymo will be unable to compete in any market where the two go head to head.

 

[Fred42]

Tesla seems to be close to running out of FS Cybertruck buyers. I Just got my invite to order a FS CT with reservation that was placed October 2022 and I read they are already up to February 2023 reservation holders. I will be passing on my order.

Trimotor reservation?`

 

[cusetownusa]

6+ months of FS seems to be a good run. Elon already indicated non-FS orders should start next quarter.

I agree, I was just giving a data point to give people an idea of where they are for FS orders. Like you said, seems to line up with what Elon said.

Assuming they start back from the beginning of the reservation list to start non FS series orders, It will be interesting how long it takes to get back to my spot again. At that point I may go through with the order.

 

[cusetownusa]

Trimotor reservation?`

When I made the reservation there were no options at that point like there was early on. But if I do get one some day, I will get the dual motor.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Would this leave to a pretty massive depreciation as regular editions start rolling out? I saw some video of someone trying to sell theirs to avoid this big hit.

Depends on a lot of factors. It might become a collectors item over time like the OG roadster and go up in value for all we know.

 

[FastEddieB]

They've sold over 11,000 for an extra $220M in FS upcharges. Not bad

But maybe there’s a downside to that as well?

It may have been a sound financial decision, but how many saw this price increase - on top of a price already much higher than originally floated - as predatory? I certainly was dismayed, and was not willing to pay that price, especially with the diminished EV range across the line. And in the time it takes for the price to return to earth, how many are seriously considering the other EV pickup trucks out there? I know I am. It’s far easier to lose customers than it is to gain their loyalty in the first place.

 

[Speedr117]

Would this leave to a pretty massive depreciation as regular editions start rolling out? I saw some video of someone trying to sell theirs to avoid this big hit.

Regular editions won't be that different in price if you select the same options. For example, just selecting FSD and better wheels/tire will probably get you to $92,000 for the AWD vs. the $100,000 FS AWD, and if you include the $2,500 store credit they give you, it's really like $97,500.

So for the extra $5,500, you get to have your truck before anyone else who was in line, which for me, was WELL worth it! BTW, I've had mine for the last 4 months, and can tell you, it's !@#$$@#!##@ awesome!!!

 

[Speedr117]

I agree, I was just giving a data point to give people an idea of where they are for FS orders. Like you said, seems to line up with what Elon said.

Assuming they start back from the beginning of the reservation list to start non FS series orders, It will be interesting how long it takes to get back to my spot again. At that point I may go through with the order.

That's the rub. You're paying extra to get it sooner (see previous post above). I'd expect once the regular edition comes out, they'll start back at the beginning (which seems like the only fair thing to do). Assuming the take rate is less than the Model 3, and taking into account the ramp (they've produced 11,000 Cybertrucks in a little over 5 months), and even if they end 2024 at a run rate of 125,000/year, you'll probably be waiting for at least a year before getting it. Did I mention it's awesome? lol

 

[jerry33]

But maybe there’s a downside to that as well?

It may have been a sound financial decision, but how many saw this price increase - on top of a price already much higher than originally floated - as predatory? I certainly was dismayed, and was not willing to pay that price, especially with the diminished EV range across the line. And in the time it takes for the price to return to earth, how many are seriously considering the other EV pickup trucks out there? I know I am. It’s far easier to lose customers than it is to gain their loyalty in the first place.

FWIW, I never saw it as predatory, and I don't believe many who have followed Tesla for a long time thought that either. Tesla has always shipped the most expensive model first and sometimes added items that would later become optional (I recall the carbon fibre trim on the 2013 Performance). When the Cybertruck was introduced inflation was minimal and cost of goods were low. The Covid happened and many manufacturers and miners reduced production causing the cost of goods to rise dramatically. In addition, Tesla introduced a lot of new technology that wasn't part of the original prototype, so I don't believe people who can afford a $100K Foundation have been ripped-off. And those who don't want to pay that much will eventually get a Cybertruck at a price they are willing to pay.

 

[Waiting4M3]

a car isn't a life saving necessity like food or cancer drugs, no one has to buy a car, I think the word predatory is mis-applied here

people will pay what they're willing to pay, don't be mad at Tesla for charging people $100-$120k, blame those 11k+ buyers lined up willing to give them that money

 

[EQC_]

But maybe there’s a downside to that as well?

It may have been a sound financial decision, but how many saw this price increase - on top of a price already much higher than originally floated - as predatory? I certainly was dismayed, and was not willing to pay that price, especially with the diminished EV range across the line. And in the time it takes for the price to return to earth, how many are seriously considering the other EV pickup trucks out there? I know I am. It’s far easier to lose customers than it is to gain their loyalty in the first place.

Small point: not sure what you mean by "especially with the diminished EV range across the line." It is only the tri-motor model with lower range than the 500 miles announced at reveal. The dual motor was listed as "300+" miles...and its 320-340 mile rating definitely meets that. I know a lot of critics complain about not achieving rated range at 75-80 mph...but that's just not a wise or fair expectation.

More important point for me in thinking about the price: Tesla is producing Cybertrucks as fast as they can. Period.

If Tesla had priced them at, say, $60K dual and $80K tri from the start, they wouldn't be selling more trucks (because they can't make more). But, more people early on the reservation list would be buying. So, later reservation holders wouldn't even have the opportunity to buy until at least next year. And, the resellers would be making tons of money flipping their trucks.

Personally, while production is ramping, I like it better that prices are high to both give Tesla some extra profit and to let Tesla actually offer the Foundation option through most of the reservation list before cycling through again as production ramps and prices come down. The alternative feels like giving huge profit to resellers, and limiting access to the truck to the earliest reservation holders only (unless you buy from one of those resellers).

As for the other truck options...recall that Tesla is ramping as fast as they can again. If prices were lower, people later on the reservation list would be waiting years before even being offered a chance at a cybertruck, and that feels likely to push them to choose a different vehicle too. At least this way, just about all US reservation holders get the option to buy (for higher price) in the first year.

 

[Hock1]

I'm not a huge Cathie Wood fanatic. I have never owned their ETFs, so I'm not coming to the defense of ARK as a fanboi. That being said, I would like for you to find me another (college project or otherwise) analysis in 2020 that predicted the 2024 stock price more accurately.

What you suggest is innacurate. In 2020 ARK didn’t forecast a specific number of cars sales at all. Their analysis was based on probabilities (as seen below).

View attachment 1060649View attachment 1060647

I think we have now accumulated enough negative posts about ARK to pronounce that a bottom is here (or near).

 

[Blue horseshoe]

But maybe there’s a downside to that as well?

It may have been a sound financial decision, but how many saw this price increase - on top of a price already much higher than originally floated - as predatory? I certainly was dismayed, and was not willing to pay that price, especially with the diminished EV range across the line. And in the time it takes for the price to return to earth, how many are seriously considering the other EV pickup trucks out there? I know I am. It’s far easier to lose customers than it is to gain their loyalty in the first place.

Simple supply and demand. They didn't lose customers because they sold 100% of their supply at X + $20k per vehicle.

As they shift to non-FS cybertruck production and delivery the wait list is still 1.5M amd we don't know how many people have been ordering cybertrucks since they went online with deliveries. Tesla is targeting a 130k annual runrate by the end of this year with production topping out around 200k/annually next year and beyond. Highly likely the wait could be years for anyone ordering a truck in the next several years. Demand > supply and this will also dampen a big drop-off in FS valuation as anyone who wants to buy now would have to purchase someone else's CT

 

[FastEddieB]

Simple supply and demand. They didn't lose customers because they sold 100% of their supply at X + $20k per vehicle.

I think that remains to be seen.

They certainly lost potential customers, possibly forever. To Rivian, Ford, GM and soon to be other competitors. Maybe that was inevitable due to constrained production, but I still feel the very high initial prices left a bad taste in some folks’ mouths.

 

[Musskiah]

Agree to disagree @Usain. I'm pretty confident about my calls . Also I don't agree with your interpretation of what altman is saying, he also said it's foolish to try to anticipate AI more than 1-2 years into the future.

You haven't addressed a number of the points I made, but you seem to be convinced tesla has the right approach, while I genuinely believe they're manufacturing a growth story to keep the stock price above the required threshold. The timing of the announcements screams that. Occam's razor and all. 10 years in, just as we're consistently seeing negative growth on delivery metrics , fsd is suddenly ready? I don't buy that.

How many miles have you driven on FSD?

 

[Musskiah]

There is not so much hate on Waymo, there are a couple of posters that are embarrassing to anyone with a brain that try to trash waymo (why I don't know) and others such as @Doggydogworld who are sound skeptics on all RT related things. The embarrassing folks post all day (have no lives, literally post over a dozen times a day) but have no real knowledge of ai, have not considered the business model, when confronted with truth they pretend it doesn't matter and change arguments, then 2 pages later go right back to lying about the same things.

At least when @DarkandStormy makes a post it is humorous even as he trolls away. It's the professional posters/uber bull types that destroy a conversation on RT/AI. Waymo has a clear and easy to understand strategy, is tremendously well capitalized, is cautious, has a great vehicle picked out (which will likely be powered by catl new 4680 cells- the irony), and is first mover. No one knows what happens now, will Waymo feel confident enough to launch the actual RT fleet? Geely has started hiring people to support operations in CA. @Doggydogworld doesn't believe Waymos model will turn out to be profitable (I think that is a fair summary) but I'm not so sure about that. In any case when DW makes his arguments that are rational and don't change if it makes Tesla look good or bad.

If/when Tesla has a geofenced competing product (sometime soon) to Waymo, how will Waymo compete without enjoying all of the cost advantages that Tesla obviously has over it?

 

[Musskiah]

I don't take the time to address each and every point. But if there is something in particular you want me to discuss I'll be happy to give my opinion.

To be clear, my claim that Tesla will win on cost is not solely based on the fact that Tesla's vehicles will cost a lot less than Waymo. That's the smaller part of Tesla's cost advantage.

The main advantage Tesla will have is superior AI. An end-to-end system that makes better decisions will mean a lot fewer humans have to be involved with running the network. It won't be geofenced. It won't require extensive mapping and re-mapping. It won't require so many support personnel behind the scenes. It won't need as much human intervention.

Thus, Tesla's cost will be immensely lower. Lower cost for Tesla will mean Waymo will be unable to compete in any market where the two go head to head.

100%

This is exactly what I was thinking.

 

[2Pearls]

Regular editions won't be that different in price if you select the same options. For example, just selecting FSD and better wheels/tire will probably get you to $92,000 for the AWD vs. the $100,000 FS AWD, and if you include the $2,500 store credit they give you, it's really like $97,500.

So for the extra $5,500, you get to have your truck before anyone else who was in line, which for me, was WELL worth it! BTW, I've had mine for the last 4 months, and can tell you, it's !@#$$@#!##@ awesome!!!

But you lose the $7500 tax credit since the truck lists under$80k. At $100k, there is NO tax credit.

 

[Musskiah]

He never addresses points that demonstrate facts contrary to his vision for stock price , he has no idea how Tesla plans to make money with RT, he is just about hype. He doesn't understand AI, nor does he understand anything about Waymo. He claims Waymo will not be able to compete and will go under.....as if Google has ever had issues competing and claims that expensive vehicles will make Waymo uncompetitive- it is such a laughable failure of an analysis that I can only assume he is a paid shill. Heck google was even able to compete with Apple on smart phones (and yes extending that to RT is a very neat idea upon which to have a real conversation thus it should take place in the AI thread).

"Never"...."no idea"..."always"...

Try replacing with "rarely"..."little idea"..."often"...

These exaggerated extremes detract from the substance of the points being made. People are rarely "never" or "always" guilty of anything. Make sense?

 

[sunwarriors]

I think we have now accumulated enough negative posts about ARK to pronounce that a bottom is here (or near).

Like her NVDA call, the bottom maybe when she decides to sell. That's my bottom at least