Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

Yeah serious capping on the stock today to prevent a bounce and get back above the 100 day. Stock is just being strangled constantly day in and day out.

The rumored Highland selling price just doesn't seem realistic at all. Would be a potential huge catalyst but I'm sure there would be questions about what kind of gross margin Tesla would be making on a 25k Highland 3. A 25k Highland 3 would absolutely destroy the market. Would seriously be a huge hit to BYD.

But I just don't see how it's possible. Especially considering that's the ASP Tesla is shooting for with Gen 3.

I thought I heard Steven say there’s a rumor that the price would be around $27k (like 2% confident my memory of a rumor, lol).

I don't see why 25k is not possible, and I have had this take since about 2 yrs ago. I recall many laughing at me on this regarding a 25k Model 3. I don’t think I need to rehash the cost saving processes introduced since then, but they all are part of Wrights Law. Plus, its going to be a volume build very soon!

How much more market share of transport does one need to breakout? And I bet that’s what is behind the US Steel interest. It could be another way to slow down Tesla by cutting off supplies. Does this not ring of wartime tactics? (Aluminum was for fighter planes and nothing else.) Not that Tesla needs more steel, but more so, the mission is at risk if that existing source is cutoff.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I thought I heard Steven say there’s a rumor that the price would be around $27k (like 2% confident my memory of a rumor, lol).

I don't see why 25k is not possible, and I have had this take since about 2 yrs ago. I recall many laughing at me on this regarding a 25k Model 3. I don’t think I need to rehash the cost saving processes introduced since then, but they all are part of Wrights Law. Plus, its going to be a volume build very soon!

How much more market share of transport does one need to breakout? And I bet that’s what is behind the US Steel interest. It could be another way to slow down Tesla by cutting off supplies. Does this not ring of wartime tactics? (Aluminum was for fighter planes and nothing else.) Not that Tesla needs more steel, but more so, the mission is at risk if that existing source is cutoff.

Yes that 27k number that Steven is quoting is from the china rumors that came out over the weekend (or was it the previous weekend?). Anyways, there were multiple rumors from different sources:

- That Shanghai had fully switched over to Highland production
- That they would be making 7k of the Highland for the rest of this month and 10k for September
- That the price would be 27k

There might have one or two other rumors

I get that one of the focus of Highland (which isn't really reported on as much as it should be) is to reduce costs substantially. I just don't see how they reduce the costs by $6,000 and still maintain gross margin.

 

[ls7corvete]

I thought I heard Steven say there’s a rumor that the price would be around $27k (like 2% confident my memory of a rumor, lol).

I don't see why 25k is not possible, and I have had this take since about 2 yrs ago. I recall many laughing at me on this regarding a 25k Model 3. I don’t think I need to rehash the cost saving processes introduced since then, but they all are part of Wrights Law. Plus, its going to be a volume build very soon!

How much more market share of transport does one need to breakout? And I bet that’s what is behind the US Steel interest. It could be another way to slow down Tesla by cutting off supplies. Does this not ring of wartime tactics? (Aluminum was for fighter planes and nothing else.) Not that Tesla needs more steel, but more so, the mission is at risk if that existing source is cutoff.

New CATL batteries and Highland improvement could get us close, at least for base models. I doubt US will get one that cheap.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

New CATL batteries and Highland improvement could get us close, at least for base models. I doubt US will get one that cheap.

You gotta think of it as $6,000 lower price on what the 3 currently costs in each market. So for US for example, would bring the starting price of a 3 down to $34,000.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Yeah serious capping on the stock today to prevent a bounce and get back above the 100 day. Stock is just being strangled constantly day in and day out.

The rumored Highland selling price just doesn't seem realistic at all. Would be a potential huge catalyst but I'm sure there would be questions about what kind of gross margin Tesla would be making on a 25k Highland 3. A 25k Highland 3 would absolutely destroy the market for Chinese EV makers. Would seriously be a huge hit to BYD.

But I just don't see how it's possible. Especially considering that's the ASP Tesla is shooting for with Gen 3.

Too literal- the 25k is just a number from years ago, then inflation hit. So I agree this would be quite difficult without robots in operation or more volume. Could still be $25k in US after incentives.

Cost of Gen 3 doesn't matter, they’ll be free if you have a robo service. Or so the story goes…

 

[SOULPEDL]

New CATL batteries and Highland improvement could get us close, at least for base models. I doubt US will get one that cheap.

Well not yet… I didn't say when. They likely don't need it that low to sell initially. But how long before Gen 3 cost start to Osborn the Highlander? The prices need to be close when Gen 3 is released.

I have listen to the arguments made, so here’s my final offer:
- Highlander 27.5k after US incentives.
- 21.5k at transition to Gen 3 because Tesla will be producing millions by then with some robots helping out.

 

[Singuy]

You gotta think of it as $6,000 lower price on what the 3 currently costs in each market. So for US for example, would bring the starting price of a 3 down to $34,000.

They can lower highland to whatever they want in the future, but debut price must have an early adopter/anti-osbourne Y tax on top.

 

[SOULPEDL]

You gotta think of it as $6,000 lower price on what the 3 currently costs in each market. So for US for example, would bring the starting price of a 3 down to $34,000.

So then $27k after incentives?
Sounds good.

 

[Krugerrand]

Sigh. It has always been like this at Tesla since, oh, 2008 or so. Would you rather have a car company that has an otherwise great series of features, but lousy tech since the tech package is on a 5 year refresh cycle, and won’t be ready until next year? A lot of current cars being sold fall into that camp, just for one example.

Look, Tesla isn’t perfect!!! It has never been, and never will be. It is just less imperfect than all other car companies. If that isn’t good enough for you, look elsewhere.

And FWIW, I immediately put in an order for a new Model X on the day of the announcement solely because of that steering wheel. Sure there are plenty of stick in the muds like you that didn’t like it, in fact you are probably a majority (since Tesla has now reversed their standard/optional steering wheel, they, oh my gosh, learned!), but Tesla does amazing things because of that mentality.

The Cybertruck is a good example of the positives of that mentality. Only a company that would gamble on a yoke would also gamble on the Cybertruck, which all indications are, will be a hit.

The post and person you were responding to is why we’re all going to die a horrible death. Ultimately it’s rigid thinking. It’s taking unimportant things in life too serious while ignoring the important stuff thinking. It’s hyper opinionated thinking.

How hard is it to buy a different steering wheel? It’s not hard. It’s even easier to buy a car with a steering wheel you want in the first place. Why is someone buying something they don’t like and then complaining about it and turning it into a personal issue with the CEO of the company? For all we know, it wasn’t Elon who came up with the idea in the first place.

Why can’t driving be fun for driver and passengers? It can be safe and fun at the same time. We’ve all got enough day to day worries with health, finances etc… Getting in that car of mine gives me joy every single time, whether it’s the sound system or fart mode or the fact the hillbilly down the road loses every time he races me in that piece of crap Camero he’s so proud of. Additionally, we all know that the goal of Tesla is to not have to drive. So while you’re not driving, whatcha gunna do?

Keep on keeping on as we are; thinking complaining about a steering wheel in a car is important while knowing Maui burned and California gets hit with a hurricane and half the country has been cooking under a heatwave for over a month and most of British Columbia burns to the ground etc.

To help transition the planet to sustainable transportation surely a person could simply go buy a different steering wheel and put it in the otherwise best EV car in the world and keep the rest to themselves. Surely.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

They can lower highland to whatever they want in the future, but debut price must have an early adopter/anti-osbourne Y tax on top.

Right which is why I don't think the starting price is going to be as low as that rumor makes it sound like it will be. Come in with too low of sales price and it'll take away demand from the Y

 

[Gigapress]

Dojo requires chips. And chips requires more energy. Can we actually replace fossil fuels with renewables worldwide or are we just adding renewables on top of fossil fuels?

Remember Tesla's mission, "to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy"? We haven't started fixing the problem, far from it: https://www.axios.com/2018/08/16/despite-renewables-growth-there-has-never-been-energy-transition. We need renewables to reduce fossil fuel usage in aggregate. Not find new ways to consume the electricity generated by new capacity (that was created to replace fossil fuels in the first place, not supplement it)

https://bonpote.com/en/jevons-paradox-and-rebound-effect/

No we are not just adding renewables on top of fossil fuels, because renewables will be overwhelmingly cheaper, better and more reliable. The amount of demand for fossil fuel energy will decline to approximately zero, even if for no other reason than simple economics. And I'm still on record predicting that human global energy consumption will increase by at least 10x in my lifetime.

For illustration, let's look at 21st-century history of the United States electricity market. This is a prime example because of the US geology and geographic population distribution. The US has a huge supply of cheap domestic coal. US coal consumption was stable from 2000-2010, after which it has declined by 55% as of 2023 (see chart below). US coal consumption per capita is down 63% since 2000. This rapid collapse of coal has occurred despite US total electricity consumption having grown slightly since 2000. Coal plants with capital costs already paid off are being retired early, year after year.

View attachment 966143
Source: IEA

Peabody Energy (a huge, old American coal company) filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2016. This is the earnings per share chart of a company disrupted by a new technology called fracking.

View attachment 966151
Source: Macrotrends

This flight from coal occurred mainly because US oil & gas companies (not exactly bastions of environmentalism or anti-fossil fuel sentiment) engineered breakthrough new technologies for how to extract natural gas from difficult shale wells at shockingly low cost. The second main reason is that in the 2010s wind energy achieved cost competitiveness and meaningfully large production scale.

Just as gas and wind have disrupted coal, cheap, flexible, reliable solar photovoltaics and batteries will disrupt all previously dominant energy sources (fossils, nuclear fission, hydro).

Besides cost, there's also the fact that we have aging electrical grid infrastructure. It needs tremendous capital expenditures in the coming years. Plus, how long are people going to tolerate the growing tendency of grid equipment to ignite horrendous wildfires? Solar and batteries are the only electricity generation technologies that allow for practical colocation of the generation and the load, even at small scale, with no need for high-voltage power lines or big transformers in between. Additionally, this elimination of major transmission infrastructure will probably delete even more cost.

 

[Singuy]

Right which is why I don't think the starting price is going to be as low as that rumor makes it sound like it will be. Come in with too low of sales price and it'll take away demand from the Y

Honestly, a lot of these rumors were posted with bad faith DESIGNED to osbourne sales the bulls ate up/spread around like dumbasses.

 

[15Peter20]

Just had a text from Tesla UK offering 0% finance on M3P and LR. Down from 5% or so.

 

[2daMoon]

The post and person you were responding to is why we’re all going to die a horrible death. Ultimately it’s rigid thinking. It’s taking unimportant things in life too serious while ignoring the important stuff thinking. It’s hyper opinionated thinking.

How hard is it to buy a different steering wheel? It’s not hard. It’s even easier to buy a car with a steering wheel you want in the first place. Why is someone buying something they don’t like and then complaining about it and turning it into a personal issue with the CEO of the company? For all we know, it wasn’t Elon who came up with the idea in the first place.

Why can’t driving be fun for driver and passengers? It can be safe and fun at the same time. We’ve all got enough day to day worries with health, finances etc… Getting in that car of mine gives me joy every single time, whether it’s the sound system or fart mode or the fact the hillbilly down the road loses every time he races me in that piece of crap Camero he’s so proud of. Additionally, we all know that the goal of Tesla is to not have to drive. So while you’re not driving, whatcha gunna do?

Keep on keeping on as we are; thinking complaining about a steering wheel in a car is important while knowing Maui burned and California gets hit with a hurricane and half the country has been cooking under a heatwave for over a month and most of British Columbia burns to the ground etc.

To help transition the planet to sustainable transportation surely a person could simply go buy a different steering wheel and put it in the otherwise best EV car in the world and keep the rest to themselves. Surely.

This one might be nice.

See, it even has the horn button in the middle.

 

[ls7corvete]

Just had a text from Tesla UK offering 0% finance on M3P and LR. Down from 5% or so.

IMHO, Tesla needs to do more of this.

 

[Krugerrand]

It's one thing to call people "sticks in the muds" for not liking something that you do, but honestly I agree with TSLA Pilot on the stalks issue. I have driven a new Model S with the yoke and haptic buttons on the steering wheel (minus the stalks) and truthfully I hated it. Stalks for turn signals isn't complicated and IMHO they just work better for signals than hard to find & feel buttons on the wheel. Same with the horn, which is an emergency function, and thus should be simple to activate, not difficult, and moving the horn from a large area at the center of the wheel to a little finger button which is hard to feel on the wheel is not an "improvement". In my honest opinion.

I love most of what Tesla does innovation wise, but the removal of stalks and the placement of haptic buttons for core functions on the steering wheel spokes is not value added for me, and I have to wonder how many people test driving new Tesla's will feel the same way? Something simple like that could sway someone away from buying a new Tesla. I know it's saving costs on the production side, but will the potential loss of acquiring new customers make those savings worth it?

Then they should buy a different car.

Once again I remind people of all the ranting about how Tesla can’t do it all themselves. If Tesla turns their cars into vehicles too difficult, cumbersome or otherwise for people to buy, then so be it.

It’s not a big deal. No, it’s not. The only reason it’s a perceived problem here is because you all have money on the line you’re afraid to lose should Tesla not be everything to everyone.

Tesla will either learn that people don’t like those changes or that people can’t change nor learn how to get used to the new way of driving or Tesla won’t. Then there really will be a demand problem for Tesla and they can then choose how to handle it.

You know, there was a lot of up in arms about no display behind the steering wheel too. People shouting how it was dangerous to shift their eyes slightly right to see their speed etc. How they couldn’t learn a new way and hated it and, and, and.

It’s perfectly fine you don’t like those changes. Go buy a car more to your liking. Vote with your wallet and create that real demand issue.

 

[Mengy]

It’s perfectly fine you don’t like those changes. Go buy a car more to your liking. Vote with your wallet and create that real demand issue.

As my signature states, I already own a 2021 MY LR with stalks, and I am extremely happy with it!

If they ever do a Highland MY I'd be interested in trading up, but if it doesn't have stalks I'd very likely just keep my 2021 instead. Unless there is some aftermarket option to put the stalks back on.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Right which is why I don't think the starting price is going to be as low as that rumor makes it sound like it will be. Come in with too low of sales price and it'll take away demand from the Y

Not worried about Y competing with a low cost 3. Your tax suggestion is best needed as a reserve in case of another global downturn, or some steel shortage.

Also, the idea that 10% margin is low is ludicrous… any other auto company would beg for this. We are spoiled into thinking Tesla is having troubles due to discounts or the stock price. Thats an illusion created for and by wall street. The death blow hasn't happened yet, and my burnt hair perfume smells better each day.

 

[Krugerrand]

Highlander selling for close to $25K -

Sorry. That’s not happening. Nope.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Sorry. That’s not happening. Nope.

Out of context. No.