Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

Not gonna help the big 3 margins....

As a potential strike looms over the Detroit Three automakers, the United Auto Workers union is pushing for a substantial pay raise for its members: 46% over four years.

https://www.npr.org/2023/09/07/1197884540/unions-strike-wages-uaw-automakers-detroit

Seems Sept 14 is a deadline for the big 3 response. Meanwhile, the Detroit Auto Show starts on the 13th. Oh boy.

"All three (automakers) are required to have an agreement done by September 14 – that's the deadline for all three," Fain told reporters this week. "And if they don't, there will be action."​

I bet the UAW will make a scene at the Auto Show, possibly poke at Tesla while in the spotlight. Big question - will Potus be there to give us an update on the EV race? People want to know... who's winning?

 

[Artful Dodger]

James Cat posted on X: "Tesla IR appears to be trying to lower expectations for both deliveries and production heading into the end of the quarter." [Bloomberg Terminal scrnsht]

So much wrong with the suppositions in this Bloomberg Terminal msg. Let's make a list:

• the Bloomberg title is self-contradictory: DELIVERIES do not depend upon PRODUCTION; all deliveries come from INVENTORY (by definition). DELIVERIES can only slip if INVENTORY is low. This is pure Scare-mongering.
• Why would Tesla IR discuss 'limited cost savings' with Deutsche Bank at a private meeting? This (and other claims) are super-sketchy, bordering on made-up.
• No publicly-traded company* would share this information privately, giving an advantage to select clients.
• So did Rosner actually say this in Munich, or did the writer add this to embellish his story?

Let's look a recent social media post from the byline: Craig Trudell - Bloomberg.com | Authors

Craig Trudell on X: "“Is it *best* practices for a company to lend its CEO $1 billion secured by his own stock in the company? Oh no. But it’s Elon Musk.” SpaceX Loaned Elon Musk Some Money" / X (3:35 am ET · Sep 7, 2023)​

Yes that's right: the same day this 'journalist' is spreading fear about deliveries, he's slagging Elon on the former Twitter (ironic free speech, wot?). No mention that SpaceX is a *privately held company, and that Elon owns more than half it's equity. Or that the loan was for less than 2% of his equity. Or that Elon paid it back with interest in less than a month.

Good grief, what a stretch. Bloomberg has shoddy ethics (should be called Boomburg).

TL;dr This is yet-another hit piece from Bloomberg by an known Musk detractor. Trudell should be taken with a huge grain of NaCl+.

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[Usain]

Wonder if just Hilton branded hotels or all Hotels owned by Hilton. We often stay at Hampton Inns which Hilton owns.

I have an inside source at a Hilton franchisee who I pinged about this. I'll let you know if I find anything out.

But in the past, Hilton has been very proactive with charging initiatives that included franchisees.

 

[wtlloyd]

There are a remarkable number of Texans that believe Climate Change is a “Chinese hoax.”

I have found that both solar and EV’s are a difficult concept to sell as there are a stunning number of profoundly ignorant morons here, hence the massive number of Trump supporters as a proxy for lack of information and knowledge.

I am embarrassed to live in this state, now the HQ for Tesla, AND where one may STILL not legally purchase a Tesla directly despite Tesla having spent billions of dollars for construction of GigaAustin . . . .

Let Huston flood a time or two more, we'll see if they still say they like it.

 

[thx1139]

Let Huston flood a time or two more, we'll see if they still say they like it.

University of Miami says that by 2060 2 million people will have to have moved from southern Florida because of Climate Change. Floridians still dont care.

 

[Usain]

Boy, when Gali thinks we're priced correctly, that doesn't say much for the upside in the short term....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1699507539996758435

So Gali no longer thinks major FSD progress is happening any time soon. Dubious position for a Tesla bull.

We don't need robotaxi for Tesla stock to start soring. We just need to see major FSD progress for the market to put 2 and 2 together.

(In this case, 2 + 2 = 1000)

 

[Usain]

So much wrong in the suppositions with this Bloomberg Terminal msg, let's make a list:

• the Bloomberg title is self-contradictory: DELIVERIES do not depend upon PRODUCTION; all deliveries come from INVENTORY (by definition). DELIVERIES can only slip if INVENTORY is low. Scare-mongering.
• Why would Tesla IR discuss 'limited cost savings' with Deutsche Bank at a private meeting? This (and other claims) are super-sketchy, boardering on made-up.
• No publicly-traded company would share this information privately, giving an advantage to select clients.
• So did Rosner actually say this in Munich, or did the writer make this up to embellish his story?

So then, let's look a recent social media post from the byline: Craig Trudell - Bloomberg.com | Authors

Craig Trudell on X: "“Is it *best* practices for a company to lend its CEO $1 billion secured by his own stock in the company? Oh no. But it’s Elon Musk.” https://t.co/mm43icTqgm" / X (3:35 am ET · Sep 7, 2023)​

Yes that's right: on the same day this 'journalist' is spreading fear about deliveries, he's slagging Elon on the former Twitter (ironic free speech, wot?)

TL;dr This is yet-another hit piece from Bloomberg by an known Musk detractor. Should be taken with NaCl+

Cheers to the Longs!

I suspect that Tesla IR shared nothing beyond what was said in the conference call regarding Q3 production. But Bloomberg jumped to their own conclusions and made it sound like insider info.

 

[FreqFlyer]

On the topic of marketing and advertsiing, it seems Tesla will join the Electrify Expo this year. I have been to the Ride and Drives for the past two years (EQS was impressive to drive). It usually visits Austin in November. Tesla is going to where the people are.

Electrify Expo Seattle: Your First Ride With Tesla, Kia, Volvo, GoCycle, Async, and More!

Don't miss the Electrify Expo West Coast tour's finale in Seattle: Volvo, Kia, Polestar, Tesla, Ford, Gocycle, Async, P-51, and more!

electrifynews.com

 

[SOULPEDL]

There are a remarkable number of Texans that believe Climate Change is a “Chinese hoax.”

I have found that both solar and EV’s are a difficult concept to sell as there are a stunning number of profoundly ignorant morons misinformed here, hence the massive number of Trump supporters as a proxy for lack of information and knowledge.

I am embarrassed to live in this state, now the HQ for Tesla, AND where one may STILL not legally purchase a Tesla directly despite Tesla having spent billions of dollars for construction of GigaAustin . . . .

FIFY, they are not moronic, just misinformed.

True story, I found out last month that I have a 45 yr old son in Florida, complete with 4 bonus grand kids. (There may be more DNA test in progress). Until now, I didn't have any grand kids. Pretty exciting actually. So far so good. (No cigar emoji... this will do )

Now ask yourself - if one of your neighbors in Tx turned out to be your son, how would you respond differently? This is my situation and it's humbling to say the least. So far, we both voted for Perot, he likes Elon, and works with his hands to build homes as a Carpenter! Keeping it positive - he doesn't work in a Bank or at GM!

What a story... possibly OT.

 

[scaesare]

FIFY, they are not moronic, just misinformed.

I find people who hold strong opinions without being informed when there are avenues to do so, moronic.

Biased media makes that harder, but not an excuse.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I don't think FSD leads to a large stock jump until it's licensed by someone else (confirmed) or there is actual driverless functionality.

FSD will lead to a large stock jump as soon as it hits the Income Statement, and Tesla starts reporting the 'take-rate' in their Quarterly Letters to Investors. Guidance will matter.

The first shoe will drop in 2023 Q3 as Tesla claims a substaintial chunk of FSD deferred revenue (it's a large stash of cash, which has been piling up since 2016).

Oh, Wall-E will try to hand-wave this off saying it's just 'one-time' revenue. Tesla will come back in 2023 Q4 with FSD take-rates and continued FSD line-item revenue, proving its not just 'one-time'.

Like it or not, Elon is positioning Tesla to be an Autonomous Transportation company, and this will be the story-of-the-stock going forward for years. Teslabot will be another chapter in the story. I can't wait to see Optimus building Robotaxis in Tesla factories on 3 continents.

Cheers!

 

[2daMoon]

There are a remarkable number of Texans that believe Climate Change is a “Chinese hoax.”

I have found that both solar and EV’s are a difficult concept to sell as there are a stunning number of profoundly ignorant morons here, hence the massive number of Trump supporters as a proxy for lack of information and knowledge.

I am embarrassed to live in this state, now the HQ for Tesla, AND where one may STILL not legally purchase a Tesla directly despite Tesla having spent billions of dollars for construction of GigaAustin . . . .

Yeah, Texas sure hates renewables.

Oh, wait, they lead the nation ...

Texas Leads the Country in Renewables | No Bull Blog

Everything is bigger in Texas, including the appetite for renewable energy. Solar and wind energy are growing fast in the Lone Star State and here’s why.

www.energytexas.com

Texas led the country in new renewable energy projects last year

Republicans for decades have overseen the energy sector in Texas, which still ranks 10th in the country for fossil fuel consumption.

www.cnbc.com

Inside Clean Energy: Texas Is the Country’s Clean Energy Leader, Almost in Spite of Itself - Inside Climate News

In the race to build renewable energy projects in 2021, Texas lapped the competition. The state had 7,352 megawatts of new wind, solar and energy storage projects come online during the year, according to a report issued this week by the American Clean Power Association, a trade group. The...

insideclimatenews.org

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/slideshows/these-states-use-the-most-renewable-energy

As for me, I am embarrassed for those people who keep posting their personal opinions as if they are fact.

 

[spacerfc]

Yeah, Texas sure hates renewables.

Oh, wait, they lead the nation...

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/slideshows/these-states-use-the-most-renewable-energy

Yep, and they're installing more renewables, more than California.

Ultimately morons don't matter, what matters is a government that is conductive to *build* things.

 

[cliff harris]

I'm one of those bulls who hopes for great things from FSD and robotaxi and Teslabot, but I'm not banking on them, or expecting them very soon. V12 may change that. But anyway...

• Highland seems to have been handled well, and getting good reviews. No osborning, and a 'fresh' feel for the 3
• Semi about to ramp. And it will sell like crazy
• Storage already ramping very nicely, and new factory coming to china.
• Cybertruck is about to dominate all discussion regarding electric trucks.
• Europe 2023 deliveries are looking pretty incredible.

When analysts describe Tesla as 'just a car company', I'm actually not too fussed. They just have NO IDEA how rapidly this car company is growing, or how profitable it is. TSLA is underpriced now, even ignoring FSD/Dojo/Bot. Once Mexico is complete, I don't see how Ford/GM have a chance in hell. Toyota gave up years ago.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Yeah, Texas sure hates renewables.

Oh, wait, they lead the nation ...

Texas Leads the Country in Renewables | No Bull Blog

Everything is bigger in Texas, including the appetite for renewable energy. Solar and wind energy are growing fast in the Lone Star State and here’s why.

www.energytexas.com

Texas led the country in new renewable energy projects last year

Republicans for decades have overseen the energy sector in Texas, which still ranks 10th in the country for fossil fuel consumption.

www.cnbc.com

Inside Clean Energy: Texas Is the Country’s Clean Energy Leader, Almost in Spite of Itself - Inside Climate News

In the race to build renewable energy projects in 2021, Texas lapped the competition. The state had 7,352 megawatts of new wind, solar and energy storage projects come online during the year, according to a report issued this week by the American Clean Power Association, a trade group. The...

insideclimatenews.org

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/slideshows/these-states-use-the-most-renewable-energy

As for me, I am embarrassed for those people who keep posting their personal opinions as if they are fact.

It's situational State by State. Depends what they have, when it's needed, and 100% cost driven.

Texas is strong in wind energy because, in the land of constant wind, that's the biggest bang for the buck. No storage is needed because the wind generates also at night. (Solar still needs the batteries for night.)

Az didn't go with solar, they have nuclear and hydro power (river, and open desert land that nobody wants to live near). And there's no political will to change that.

W Virginia... well... it's coal country, so why renew anything?

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Boy, when Gali thinks we're priced correctly, that doesn't say much for the upside in the short term....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1699507539996758435

When Gali speaks he is not sharing information or expressing his opinion, he is trying to manipulate to serve his own purpose.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I saw this yesterday and thought - WTF?

This was a non-sense post. Gali starts by using 12-trailing-months earnings for a GROWTH company (PEG ratio is the appropriate metric when you're investing capital for future growth).

He then piles on by talking smak on 'yields' as if TSLA was a divident-paying instrument like a bond (but fails to mention TSLA YTD increase of 100%).

Gali is not this dumb (he has a business degree); this post is deliberately misleading. He's either accumulating, or swing trading, IMO.

Gali on X: "$TSLA trading for 63X trailing EBIT $12.7B profit at a $800B valuation 1.6% earnings yield (vs 5% for treasuries) market paying a premium for EV biz growth, energy, and chance of FSD/Teslabot success. i think we are fairly valued right here. 20%+ IRR for $3-4T 2030 outcome " / X​

 

[philw1776]

Sorry, but the FACT is that one must do an out-of-state transaction to purchase a Tesla in Texas.

As to how many Texans are morons, I do not have stats for that.

Perhaps the last and next elections will provide a proxy;-)

The FACT is that NH, VT and ME must do out-of-state transactions to purchase a Tesla, and there are others. So what?

 

[Featsbeyond50]

FIFY, they are not moronic, just misinformed.

True story, I found out last month that I have a 45 yr old son in Florida, complete with 4 bonus grand kids. (There may be more DNA test in progress). Until now, I didn't have any grand kids. Pretty exciting actually. So far so good. (No cigar emoji... this will do )

Now ask yourself - if one of your neighbors in Tx turned out to be your son, how would you respond differently? This is my situation and it's humbling to say the least. So far, we both voted for Perot, he likes Elon, and works with his hands to build homes as a Carpenter! Keeping it positive - he doesn't work in a Bank or at GM!

What a story... possibly OT.

Wow!
Um, congratulations? That must be surreal. If I remember correctly, you make guitar pedals. 45 years ago were in a band traveling the country?

 

[cliff harris]

Gali is not this dumb (he has a business degree); this post is deliberately misleading. He's either accumulating, or swing trading, IMO.

I know youtubers get inflated egos, but surely even gali doesn't think his tweets can move the SP.