2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
The stated purpose of the Optimus Robot is to replace humans in boring, repetitive, and dangerous jobs.
This sort of work is exactly what it is intended to be used for.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
The stated purpose of the Optimus Robot is to replace humans in boring, repetitive, and dangerous jobs.
This sort of work is exactly what it is intended to be used for.
In the factory, I see Optimus doing things like unloading trucks and moving boxes, but probably won't be on the assembly line in the near future. That said, there might be a case to be made if Optimus is close to as capable (meaning fast) as a purpose built bot and far less expensive.
Now watch how the mood changes here.
One of the easiest jobs Optimus can handle is security. Allied universal is the 3rd largest employer behind Walmart (#1) and Amazon (#2) in the United States. Observe and report with relatively simple manipulations of the environment necessary. The TAM for Optimus is enormous and I cannot wait for them to start rolling these out of what should be called The Exafactory.
The law of large numbers might kick in at 20 million, but not at 1.8 million.
Should optimus be a board member too.
Would it approve an advertising campaign.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Yes, someday a seat to represent Manufacturing, but as a non-voting member (for now). Who better to explain the robot issues at hand. (French and Italians know what I'm talking about.)
Not crazy, a robot network that is the Shop Floor Control. The resolution on factory progress and issues is nearly perfect.
Macro seems based on Yields dropping today. Doesn't seem like much... except below 5% sounds much better.
Might be relevant, might not - based info from 10Q:
electrek.co
Tesla (TSLA) reveals DOJ has ramped up investigation with subpoenas
Tesla has revealed that the Department of Justice has ramped up its investigation into the company with subpoenas relating to...
electrek.co
Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
My wife is from Thailand, so we are here on our annual visit. Interesting to see the EV landscape develop quickly since we last visited in early 2022. When we were here last year almost no EV's and the Tesla's were gray market imports. EV's quickly became 8% of the market.
BYD is everywhere with about 50% of the EV market. We got to ride in a BYD Dolphin for a taxi ride using Grab which is an Uber like service. It was quite nice for an inexpensive compact in the $25K price range. You could tell the interior was some what inexpensive but it was still a well built car. The screen did not quite have the resolution of a Tesla and the UI looked quite simple. It had a large glass roof with an automated cover which was impressive for the cost of the car.
The driver told us he only paid 1 Thai BHT per Kwh which is only about $0.03 US. My guess is there is some subsidy for the Taxi drivers as electricity is not that cheap here. Also Taxi's make up a large portion of the fleet here as many people do without a car especially in Bangkok. I expect there will be quick uptake by the Taxi fleet for the economics.
My guess is the Chinese makers and Tesla will take most of the market. The Japanese car companies will be the biggest losers here during the transition. They have typically dominated here with 80-90% of the market. I understand BYD is building a factory in Thailand as well. I understand they are working on a small pickup as well which a large portion (45% or so) of the Thai market. Lots of small pickups outside of the cities.
Not to leave out advertising, BYD billboards everywhere. Lots of Tesla's on the road here as well but did not see any advertising.
BYD is everywhere with about 50% of the EV market. We got to ride in a BYD Dolphin for a taxi ride using Grab which is an Uber like service. It was quite nice for an inexpensive compact in the $25K price range. You could tell the interior was some what inexpensive but it was still a well built car. The screen did not quite have the resolution of a Tesla and the UI looked quite simple. It had a large glass roof with an automated cover which was impressive for the cost of the car.
The driver told us he only paid 1 Thai BHT per Kwh which is only about $0.03 US. My guess is there is some subsidy for the Taxi drivers as electricity is not that cheap here. Also Taxi's make up a large portion of the fleet here as many people do without a car especially in Bangkok. I expect there will be quick uptake by the Taxi fleet for the economics.
My guess is the Chinese makers and Tesla will take most of the market. The Japanese car companies will be the biggest losers here during the transition. They have typically dominated here with 80-90% of the market. I understand BYD is building a factory in Thailand as well. I understand they are working on a small pickup as well which a large portion (45% or so) of the Thai market. Lots of small pickups outside of the cities.
Not to leave out advertising, BYD billboards everywhere. Lots of Tesla's on the road here as well but did not see any advertising.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
So is this going to affect legacy car makers that are their own banks or actual banks? Whats the projected impact if this would blow up more
MountainRatMat
Member
More repos, tighter lending practices, less new car sales, the banks can handle it but profits will be down when they write down the loans. In general it is a bad sign and if it extends to other areas we could see lower interest rates and that "soft landing" that everyone loves to tout won't happen. If it doesn't extend to other areas then we would see a downturn in the auto market overall.
I'm no expert but these are some thoughts that come in to my mind. In reality only time will tell...
Agreed. I think the right way to think about the bot is to use the analogy of the computer. In the early days, we had special purpose computers optimized for one computing task. Then general purpose computers came along that could be programmed to do almost any computing task you could dream up.
While a special purpose computer could be optimized to do a task better then a general purpose computer, the economics of creating special purpose computers made them almost extinct compared to a general purpose computer that could be mass produced and then programmed for many different tasks.
Optimus is a general purpose robot. Economies of scale will dictate that they can be built cheaply. Then they will be trained to do whatever you want. So Optimus will eventually replace a lot of those specialized robots we see on production lines today. But more importantly, Optimus will do a lot of tasks where it would have never been economically feasible to do with a special purpose robot.
There is a long road ahead though. General purpose computers were difficult to program at first. The same will be true for training Optimus. And the search will be on for the most economically useful thing that Optimus can do. Until a few great use cases are perfected, it won't make sense to manufacture them in the hundreds of thousands.
While I'm very excited about the potential, I don't see Optimus making a meaningful contribution to Tesla's financials for at least five years and probably more.
That's not to say the stock price won't react a bit sooner...
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2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
For now it is probably best to think of Optimus as,
...brought to you by Tesla, a subsidiary of the Sirius Cybernetics Corporation.
"Your plastic pal who's fun to be with" 
...brought to you by Tesla, a subsidiary of the Sirius Cybernetics Corporation.
For now it is probably best to think of Optimus as,
"Your plastic pal who's fun to be with"
...brought to you by Tesla, a subsidiary of the Sirius Cybernetics Corporation.
Yes. Optimus will do tasks that delight before it does tasks that are practical. Maybe "fun to be with" will be the first use case that justifies some limited mass production.
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UkNorthampton
TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
Presumably most people realise these are exports FROM Berlin, but just in case...
Towing with EV’s is just not going to be great no matter how it is spun. What it will do at some point 6-8 years out is force the more widespread use of use of ever more aerodynamic trailers for various uses. It’s inevitable. You also will see some partial solutions for things like boats, i.e. fairings on the trailers. The time when people could just act like aerodynamics don’t matter with vehicles is coming to an end, and there will be a LOT of changes that will seem like duh things. I really like the RIvian, but the shape of it is basically for marketing. There is no reason the front of the truck had to be shaped like conventional pickups, except to make acceptance easier for a wider group of buyers. Like all conventional PU’s the thing is an aerodynamic joke.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Why isn't anyone whooping and hollering about the robust $0.09 gain today?
Does nobody like green anymore?
/s
Does nobody like green anymore?
/s
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