Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dhanson865]

It concerns me that this apparent Tesla fan made a "Tesla commercial" but seems to have used 2 easily disproven lies about the competition. I'm not worried about Tesla...I just don't get why this guy couldn't find a better argument instead of the obvious non-truths.

1. They state that the RAV4 *starts* at "about 43 or 44 thousand" and the Model Y is about the same.
   1. A quick google for "2024 toyota rav4 price range" gets me to a Motortrend article that says prices for the gas-only / non-hybrid RAV4 range from just under $30,000 to just under $40,000 for the Limited with AWD.
   2. A similar google for the hybrid price range gets me to an MSRP range of $32,000 to just over $41,000. AWD hybrid versions are within that range.
   3. Sooo....it sounds like these guys are saying the starting price is actually the MSRP of the highest hybrid trim level, and possibly including some additional options and/or the Destination Fee. Or maybe they're adding on a common Dealer Markup in their area or something? Whatever...even as a joke video, it's shady to claim a $43K price to "start" on a RAV4.
2. They state that the RAV4 isn't "made in America."
   1. Another quick google...most of the Hybrid RAV4's sold in the US come from Kentucky. The rest of the hybrids and the gas models come from Canada.
   2. Depending on where you live, and some traits of your personal mindset, some might refer to only the USA as "America"...fine...but that doesn't change the fact that most of the expensive/Hybrid RAV4's are made in Kentucky, right in the heart of 'Merica.
   3. So...again, another argument against the Toyota that isn't even true.

Have I failed at Google...or is this a cute "commercial" with content that would be considered false advertising by any reasonable measure?

https://www.cars.com/articles/2022-cars-com-american-made-index-which-cars-are-the-most-american-451057/

https://www.cars.com/articles/2023-cars-com-american-made-index-which-cars-are-the-most-american-467465/

ModelY is #1 american made vehicle on the list (for either year)

Rav4 is #90 on the list for 2022 (and #99 for 2023) even with the KY plant as the "Assembly location for cars sold in the U.S."

The commercial didn't say "made in America" with a normal tone of voice, they were stressing that it was assembled in America with mostly foreign parts.

 

[betstarship]

Have spent the last three weeks on holiday around Fiji & Singapore, happily missing the Tesla earnings shenanigans.

Tesla still a great company, consistently “delivering the future (late)”

TSLA fundamentals however still looking “meh” with declining ASPs/Margins/earnings, underwhelming growth projections for 2024/25, and its current huge market cap still heavily reliant for the most part on future significant technology breakthroughs (FSD/Optimus). EPS for current year and next year are significantly below what everyone expected 12 & 24 months ago.

This actually does not bother me though as I would rather Tesla cut margins more, and get the cheaper model out as quickly as possible (thereby lowering ASPs even more). The not going “full tilt” with Mexico factory is disappointing in that regard, and I continue to worry about the speed of 4680 ramp (the 8 lines planned for Austin would only be enough for Cybertruck seemingly).

I have become slightly emotionally disconnected from the TSLA stock performance as other positions in my portfolio have grown, and care more about Tesla the company continuing to fulfill the mission than being the most valuable company in the world, which for some reason Elon seems obsessed with now. The primary focus should be the mission, not the stock price. (Also does not help that the personal views of Elon is now deeply out of whack with mine, and IMO arguably a big chunk of the current global EV TAM, but that’s another matter entirely)

Thought Elons rant against working from home was hilariously hypocritical given as the Tesla CEO, one of the largest companies in the world, he himself spends several days a week working amongst his 4 other companies factories/offices, and claims he can handle tesla issues when needed just fine remotely.

I offer a proof point to agree with what you're saying. Take a look at these two "latest" Twitter searches:

"digit robot factory": https://twitter.com/search?q=digit robot factory&src=recent_search_click&f=live

"tesla bot factory": https://twitter.com/search?q=tesla bot factory&src=recent_search_click&f=live

Tesla is **behind** in robotics manufacturing and are not first to market...yet, the hype train on the company vs Amazon...is oceans wide and flipped!

A person can go insane just reading the news on Tesla on a daily basis nowadays...or anything Elon Musk related.

 

[spacerfc]

care more about Tesla the company continuing to fulfill the mission than being the most valuable company in the world, which for some reason Elon seems obsessed with now. The primary focus should be the mission, not the stock price.

Elon obsessed with stock price? That's the first time I've heard of it...

 

[kabin]

Might be relevant, might not - based info from 10Q:

Tesla (TSLA) reveals DOJ has ramped up investigation with subpoenas

Tesla has revealed that the Department of Justice has ramped up its investigation into the company with subpoenas relating to...

electrek.co

And some X topic about CFO Kirkhorn possibly being shown the door after an internal investigation. It could be nonsense.

 

[EQC_]

https://www.cars.com/articles/2022-cars-com-american-made-index-which-cars-are-the-most-american-451057/

https://www.cars.com/articles/2023-cars-com-american-made-index-which-cars-are-the-most-american-467465/

ModelY is #1 american made vehicle on the list (for either year)

Rav4 is #90 on the list for 2022 (and #99 for 2023) even with the KY plant as the "Assembly location for cars sold in the U.S."

The commercial didn't say "made in America" with a normal tone of voice, they were stressing that it was assembled in America with mostly foreign parts.

Fair point. And you got me thinking again!

I had forgotten about the plug-in hybrid RAV4 Prime, which seems to start at $43 or $44K, and have 42 miles of EV range.

So, the "commercial" wasn't as blatantly false as I thought, they just needed a better script with more precise wording to prevent some fool (like me) from missing the point.

* They should have specified "Prime" or "Plug-in" or mentioned EV range at some point.

* They totally should have clearly stated ( as you did ) that the RAV4 is only assembled in America with parts from who-knows-where, and leave the audience to draw conclusions. Would be nice to also include that the Y is the #1 most American made...and the RAV4 is way way down the list.

 

[MC3OZ]

Have spent the last three weeks on holiday around Fiji & Singapore, happily missing the Tesla earnings shenanigans.

Tesla still a great company, consistently “delivering the future (late)”

TSLA fundamentals however still looking “meh” with declining ASPs/Margins/earnings, underwhelming growth projections for 2024/25, and its current huge market cap still heavily reliant for the most part on future significant technology breakthroughs (FSD/Optimus). EPS for current year and next year are significantly below what everyone expected 12 & 24 months ago.

This actually does not bother me though as I would rather Tesla cut margins more, and get the cheaper model out as quickly as possible (thereby lowering ASPs even more). The not going “full tilt” with Mexico factory is disappointing in that regard, and I continue to worry about the speed of 4680 ramp (the 8 lines planned for Austin would only be enough for Cybertruck seemingly).

I have become slightly emotionally disconnected from the TSLA stock performance as other positions in my portfolio have grown, and care more about Tesla the company continuing to fulfill the mission than being the most valuable company in the world, which for some reason Elon seems obsessed with now. The primary focus should be the mission, not the stock price. (Also does not help that the personal views of Elon is now deeply out of whack with mine, and IMO arguably a big chunk of the current global EV TAM, but that’s another matter entirely)

Thought Elons rant against working from home was hilariously hypocritical given as the Tesla CEO, one of the largest companies in the world, he himself spends several days a week working amongst his 4 other companies factories/offices, and claims he can handle tesla issues when needed just fine remotely.

Tesla are spending over $9 Billion on expansion in 2023, and $7-9 Billion for the next 2 years.

That might be going slower, but it isn't going slow.

A lot of the recent investments are hardware to support AI training, once al that extra hardware is in place, then spending in that area should decline.

If there was a fundamental problem with 4680 production, I doubt that they would be expanding 4 lines into 8 at Austin and that Kato Rd would be shifting to R&D on the Gen3 cell.

Mexico and Sparks might be going slower, Austin and Berlin are probably still going fast.

Any delay to the Gen3 car program would be disappointing, we don't yet know if that is happening..

I've never seen much evidence that Elon is obsessed with the short term share price. He certainly wasn't talking the company up during the earnings call. He wasn't actually trying to talk it down, though that might have been the net short term effect.

 

[Thekiwi]

Elon obsessed with stock price? That's the first time I've heard of it...

almost every earnings call he likes to state his belief that Tesla will be the most valuable company in the world.

 

[EQC_]

Elon obsessed with stock price? That's the first time I've heard of it...

Thekiwi noted not exactly the stock price as Elon's obsession, but the size/value of Tesla. Tightly related, I know...but there's a broader Tesla and TSLA related issue, so bear with me.

Thekiwi said:

"...being the most valuable company in the world, which for some reason Elon seems obsessed with now. The primary focus should be the mission, not the stock price..."

And I suspect the use of the word "obsession" is the media twist talking. I think Elon has said two or three times now that he can possibly see Tesla growing to be the biggest company in the world...bigger than Apple and Saudi Aramco combined, right?

Now...saying something two or three times isn't an obsession. And Elon doesn't even state it as a goal, but more as a possible result if Tesla is successful with all the things that they are working on....which is even less of an obsession toward that valuation, and more of an indication that he is indeed obsessed with trying to achieve many mission-related and tangential goals for Tesla, and believes that will drive huge value for the world, the company, and as a result the stock.

But, obsession, and especially obsession with money, is the kind of wording the media will use to get clicks...and it sticks in people's minds if they hear/read it enough.

"Obsession"..."Promised"..."Refused"... Any article, blog, or comment using these words related to Tesla and Elon can probably be seen as either trying to drive clicks via emotion-inducing wording, or has been tainted by reading these words elsewhere again and again.

Elon isn't "obsessed" with something...he has just said it a few times...weeks or months apart.

Elon didn't "promise" anything (and then break that promise). He predicted something. Or just said it. How do journalists get away with acting like crying toddlers, saying mommy promised them a cookie?

Tesla didn't "refuse" to comment on some article...they just didn't comment. Elon didn't "refuse" to put a bunch of buttons all over the dashboard (or whatever complaint of the day somebody is pushing). He and the Tesla team just made a different decision.

Inflammatory words though...they're memorable and contagious and help feed the FUD that the media relentlessly pushes on Tesla.

 

[raffiniert]

almost every earnings call he likes to state his belief that Tesla will be the most valuable company in the world.

And that's why him being honest, even if it hurts with other statements, is a good thing - and it will be obvious in the aftermath to everyone. Just those that dislike the situation the world is in right now don't like him saying the truth.

You can't have the truth on positive things and lies on bad things. At least you shouldn't have such a CEO, even if it's quite common these days.

 

[Buckminster]

Japanese automaker Toyota is close to being able to manufacture solid-state batteries at the same pace as existing batteries for electric vehicles, the Financial Times (FT) reported on Monday. Toyota says that mass production of solid-state batteries may start by 2027 or 2028.
I literally CANNOT wait…

 

[spacerfc]

almost every earnings call he likes to state his belief that Tesla will be the most valuable company in the world.

That's not obsessing with stock price, that's obsessing with the value Tesla will provide to the world in the future.

 

[spacerfc]

https://x.com/GuyDealership/status/1716595227417264430

Many people have asked me to why I haven’t commented on the concerning auto loan data that just came out.

In case you haven’t heard…

The percentage of subprime auto borrowers 60+ days past due on loans hit a record 6.1% in September.

This marked the highest delinquency rate of all time (above the 6.0% peak in 1994 and 5.0% in 2008).

Truthfully, it’s taken me a couple days to digest. I’m concerned.

But my concerns go way beyond the car market.

I’m concerned about people that are struggling to keep up with their bills.

I’m concerned about families that will lose their means of transportation.

I’m concerned about our economy.

Most of all, i’m concerned about the future of our country.

I wish I could post about improving loan performance, fiscal discipline or a positive outlook — but that just isn’t the case right now.

I’m an optimist by nature — deep-down I believe there is a way out of this mess — but I’d be lying if I said the trends aren’t keeping me up at night right now.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1716702713881239986

 

[hobbes]

Interesting, Model Y in China seems to be ahead in the bigger cities, likely where the more wealthy people live - wouldn´t that imply that in spite of price cuts Tesla is still (at least perceived) more expensive than competitors? Or this could be due to more people being open to an international brand (Tesla) in the big cities?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1716636482440421561

 

[JusRelax]

Japanese automaker Toyota is close to being able to manufacture solid-state batteries at the same pace as existing batteries for electric vehicles, the Financial Times (FT) reported on Monday. Toyota says that mass production of solid-state batteries may start by 2027 or 2028.
I literally CANNOT wait…

Here's a list of Toyota's announced solid state claims dating back to 2011:

Toyota Solid state claims

Announced Estimated commercial production date Link
2011 2015-2020 https://www.greencarcongress.com/2011/10/toyota-20111019.html
2017 2020 Toyota's new solid-state battery could make its way to cars by 2020 | TechCrunch
2019 2020 Toyota May Introduce Solid-state Batteries for Electric Cars By 2020 | Digital Trends
2021 2025 https://www.motortrend.com/news/toyota-battery-bev-hev-solid-state-future-investment/
2023 2027 Toyota's Solid-state Batteries Will Offer A Range Of 745 Miles And Charge In Under 10 Minutes!

 

[lascavarian]

GM withdraws EV guidance.

 

[2daMoon]

Elon obsessed with stock price? That's the first time I've heard of it...

Must be talking about his comments over the years about the stock price being too high.

/s

 

[2daMoon]

GM leads withdrawal of EV guidance, and it matters.

FTFY

 

[2daMoon]

SMR covers a Tony Seba presentation about Technological Disruption and the broader Phase Change brought by intersecting simultaneous disruptions, into which Tesla has led the world.

 

[ZeApelido]

GM withdraws EV guidance.

Mary lead lied.