Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Buckminster]

Shareholders is 13th June. Thread here:
Tesla Annual Shareholder Meeting

This place has become the RT thread - which I'm enjoying. if you want to move the discussion, this is the most appropriate:
Tesla Network / Robotaxi Business Model

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Here's one area (maybe not the most popular link, but who else has the guts to post it, right?)
The world is still untapped.

Where can you buy a Tesla car in India? EV giant starts hunt for showroom site

Tesla is reportedly hunting for sites in New Delhi and Mumbai for its showrooms, apart from a service hub in each of the two cities.

auto.hindustantimes.com

To me it seems Mexico is still an untapped market. What lacks in Mexico is the tesla supercharger network as an extension of the rest of the North American network. Populating key corridors in Mexico that interconnect to US corridors would possibly drive some sales in Mexico.

Jmho.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780628650981048778

Grok assisting FSD is a bit out there even for me.

 

[2daMoon]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780628650981048778

Grok assisting FSD is a bit out there even for me.

Maybe Grok can also take Customer Support and Sales calls for Tesla?

 

[Usain]

It very well might be the right choice, as a long term TSLA holder I want it to be the right choice.

I just fear it isn't. I selfishly want my stock to perform well, not languish in despair. Hope is not a strategy, and this course correction for Elon feels more like hope to me than sound strategy.

I do "hope" my gut feeling is terribly wrong though.

For investors, it is definitely a "hope" strategy. As in, "I hope Elon knows what he is doing."

But if Elon does know what he is doing, this is, as he put it, "a blindingly obvious move".

 

[ggies07]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780628650981048778

Grok assisting FSD is a bit out there even for me.

Now THAT would be amazing. A true AI vehicle with FSD capabilities. Neat.

 

[MountainRatMat]

I bought shares at open, so that's probably why it's down

Can you please start selling shares at open?

 

[Knightshade]

A few points:

1. As investors, the number one thing is that FSD is about to be solved. While we debate what I could call "totally solved" one thing which should drop away, even at the standards of the current version, is that FSD is some sort of experiment that is not worth paying for. Its worth it now, some might say "finally." But regardless of the past, now is now.

If that's the case I'd expect the take rate to get much much higher than it currently is.

I think the free trial for everyone (in NA) was a very good move as a precursor to seeing just how many owners agree with you on it being 'worth it' right now or not.

2. As an aside, I don't believe there is any problem with the sensor suite and hardware. When Tesla said that at least a 3.0 computer was needed, I don't see any reason not to take them at their word. Its was not then a lie, its not like some "to be invented 5.0 hardware" was needed.

The reason to be dubious is they ALSO said HW2.0 was enough- it wasn't. Then they said HW2.5 is enough- it wasn't. Then they said HW3.0 is enough, they still maintain that claim though it's still not proven (for anything >L2) and we know HW4 already exists and HW5 is being developed.

I agree the original statements weren't lies--- they were speaking to the best of their then-current knowledge.... but they were incorrect claims as it turned out with later info.... because nobody - including Tesla- actually knows what "enough" is for L4 until they achieve L4- and they haven't yet.

(there's been actual technical data from hackers that ALSO suggest HW3 isn't enough either, but the more hopium folks believe later massive optimization will fix it so it's a jury still out kinda thing)

 

[y_naught]

VERY good point. The multiple stop challenge is legit. Can it be "worked around"? Yeah, maybe, sometimes, but others would be painful (or impossible) - I'm not going to physically cart a bag of mulch around from one stop to the next. This is one reason I think the initial first "replace car ownership" use case (well after the "replace Ubers" use case) will be "replace SECOND car" at least in any kind of Suburban setting. I ASSUME folks dwelling in places like NYC might be able to adopt RTs much sooner, but for Suburbanites it will take some doing.

In truth, I wonder if many of these scenarios are just problems to be solved differently and I am just thinking of models that replicate today's problem the SAME WAY but with a RoboTaxi. @Knightshade 's comment about just using Instacart comes to mind as a different way to address grocery runs (admittedly, not w/o its own issues, but I digress). Heck, some of the roadblocks I am throwing up sound a lot like the complaints about EVs (i.e. they won't go 500 miles, charging needs to take 5 mins like a gas fillup, I need to tow 10,000 pounds up mountains, etc. ) - all valid concerns/comments, but things that, once we started actually driving EVs we began to see how there were workarounds for these issues or they just weren't that big of a deal after all...or we just had a second car (that spent a lot more time just "sitting" than most of us expected before we got our first EV).

No, you would just order mulch and the store would use their own autonomous delivery vehicle or a hired RT to deliver it to you. Why do you have to do it?

 

[Usain]

Am I colorblind or are we green?

 

[anthonyj]

One side of me says that Tesla knows for a fact that FSD is going to be solved soon, and shareholders should not worry. The other side says that Tesla is the most incompetent company on earth. Here is some proof. Zero followup about the Long Term Shareholder program for Early CT delivery. They’ve got some of the most loyal shareholders hyped up for nothing. Shame on Tesla.

And this whole delivery halt fiasco. No one knows the exact nature of it, not even employees. Keeping it a secret is only creating FUD and other conspiracies, and gives customers a bad taste in their mouth. Do we really need NHTSA to be the ones telling us the truth?

And one more. They are doing NOTHING to stop people from reselling their Cybertrucks. There are hundreds on the market! Tesla needs to improve the customer experience, and stop treating people like a nuisance. Some parts of the experience are really good, and some are terrible.

 

[cliff harris]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780628650981048778

Grok assisting FSD is a bit out there even for me.

You don't need a LLM for this deduction. The car already has a ton of information about its location, and it has a bazillion video clips in its training showing what a kid with a backpack looks like. Knowing that kids with backpacks exhibit behavior A in the vicinity of a school is no different to knowing what adult humans next to a pedestrian crossing do, or knowing that cars in general will slow down as they approach a red light.
Its possible to get really into the semantics of whether an AI in this circumstance 'understands' what's going on, because arguably we don't either. Even us mushy humans are just used to noticing schoolkids + school = lots of pedestrian road crossing attempts.
I'd be surprised if FSD doesn't exhibit this behavior before 8/8. We have, at this rate, 10 more FSD updates before then.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Am I colorblind or are we green?

Funny how some green pennies make us happy....ahhhh...the small things in life.

 

[cliff harris]

And one more. They are doing NOTHING to stop people from reselling their Cybertrucks. There are hundreds on the market! Tesla needs to improve the customer experience, and stop treating people like a nuisance. Some parts of the experience are really good, and some are terrible.

That was always going to happen, its just impractical to handle that sort of thing. I think Tesla did what they can, to prevent blatant scalping, but also the ramp seemed to go just fine, so they are now producing enough of them that these are not rare faberge eggs being traded. I think Tesla would care more if they were really struggling to produce enough.

 

[GOVA]

One side of me says that Tesla knows for a fact that FSD is going to be solved soon, and shareholders should not worry. The other side says that Tesla is the most incompetent company on earth. Here is some proof. Zero followup about the Long Term Shareholder program for Early CT delivery. They’ve got some of the most loyal shareholders hyped up for nothing. Shame on Tesla.

And this whole delivery halt fiasco. No one knows the exact nature of it, not even employees. Keeping it a secret is only creating FUD and other conspiracies, and gives customers a bad taste in their mouth. Do we really need NHTSA to be the ones telling us the truth?

And one more. They are doing NOTHING to stop people from reselling their Cybertrucks. There are hundreds on the market! Tesla needs to improve the customer experience, and stop treating people like a nuisance. Some parts of the experience are really good, and some are terrible.

I see it differently:

No matter when and what Tesla says, the good will never be published. The bad will be on every outlet for 7 weeks and then twisted.
I get your point, but Tesla will not say much anymore.

 

[elasalle]

Maybe Grok can also take Customer Support and Sales calls for Tesla?

the external speakers will enable RT to talk/Grok with pedestrians.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I wonder if ARK is buying more today (like they did yesterday).

 

[hobbes]

Sadly, this is the realization I have come to over the last couple of days. I have been using FSD (now v12.3.4) everyday and I just don't see the value in it of why people in large numbers would pay for it. At best I see it as a replacement for Uber/Lyft, but even with that, it's still a long ways away of being capable of replacing those services.

This is the first time I have ever thought about trimming a significant portion of my shares. It almost seems if you are not on the FSD/RT bandwagon there isn't much else to get excited about (maybe optimus?) for future growth. I am still hesitant to do so as I keep thinking that I am missing something and that this could be hugely profitable for Tesla. The timing would also suck with the SP being down so much. If it was still at $200+ I think I wouldn't be hesitating on trimming my shares.

I feel similar, but Tesla will continue to build non-robotaxi cars and demand will come back. Think about how many cars in the world are still ICE, who will replace them with EVs? Only the Chinese manufacturers? Or do you believe ICE are here to stay after all?

If Elon thinks demand won´t come back quick enough to build a Model 2 factory (Mexico) now, it does makes sense to prioritize robotaxi at the moment. It all depends on the time scale. I´d think that starting to build a Model 2 factory now would make sense because demand should be back about the time when it comes online, but if Elon thinks it is a year later it changes the short term strategy. I´ve been holding TSLA for more than 10 years by now (sold some but not a lot), and a year sooner or later doesn´t make a fundamental difference. Let´s see what he says at the Q1 call, until then everything is speculation anyway.

 

[cab]

No, you would just order mulch and the store would use their own autonomous delivery vehicle or a hired RT to deliver it to you. Why do you have to do it?

My wife and I were just discussing this. You are correct. To take it a step further, RoboTaxi really just opens the door to RoboCar => RoboVehicle => RoboTransport. At the "car" level, anything using a car to transport people or goods could then be a candidate for RoboCar consideration. My wife just said "I have these returns to make today...A RoboCar could take them for me or come get them from the store if the store had a way to deal with them once they got there". That's just at the consumer level...then you have local van delivery, semi, etc - basically, logistics a-go-go. Obviously, ALL of this relies on FSD being "solved" well enough.

On another note, I have often thought the biggest threat to EVs or Robotaxis was that people simply stop going anywhere. Look at what happened with COVID. Telecommuting took off and even though there has been some return to work, it is definitely not at the same level. Beyond that, "going out" for fun or to eat has also declined as folks order out, watch more Netflix than ever, etc. In short, the TAM for "driving" simply reduces...however, now all those people need deliveries (or do more than they used to) so we are back to needing cars/driver or just cars w/no drivers. Our dystopian future is well underway!

 

[Musskiah]

Lingang Megafactory to begin production in May,

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780501446016053448